Crowd level calendar increase

[g-dad66]

Was that 10 minutes after rope drop?!? It wouldn't be possible for them to measure a wait time that long considering that much time hadn't even elapsed yet (someone has to make it end to end with the timing card), so I wonder if they overrode the wait time indicators based on the length of the line.

I know you weren't asking me, but I know that at 9:15 a.m on March 18, the RnRC standbytime was listed as 80 minutes. But it only took us about 50 minutes. (Still played havoc with our touring plan, however. Should have used the single-rider lane.)

 

[december14disney]

Oh this stinks! I made my plan on tourguide mike a few weeks ago before my membership expired. I hate to spend the money agian since we are not going back until Dec. Does anyone know if TGM changed his best parks for 4/1 to 4/8. I made all my ADR's based upon his plan. If you do not want to post here PM me. I would be happy to share my parks as they are right now.

Thanks!

People are saying the TGM has not updated anything based on Disney changing the park hours. HTH

 

[pwdebbie]

As soon as I saw the new numbers at touringplans for my week (April 20th to 27th) I hopped right over here to the dis knowing you all would be discussing it.

I haven't told dh yet, but I am now seriously rethinking our plans. He is disabled, hasn't been well enough to do much for the last few weeks, and now it looks like crowds are going to be overwhelming for him (he can't handle crowds well at all). I'd rather lose $100 now than regret spending $2,000 if we go and the crowds are more than he can handle. No way I want to spend seven days in hotel room!

My first thought when I saw the numbers go up for my week is that this is a result of the layoffs. Less staffing is going to affect everything negatively, including CMs attitudes. It's a shame.

 

[pwdebbie]

There is something going on 4/24-27 called Cheerleading Worlds. The application form shows them being roomed at the All Stars and CBR. They have DHS on Sunday night (and Friday and Saturday nights are Grad Nights for DHS). I'm sure this event has played into the increased crowd levels.

 

[sandym718]

UG blog says the change is because the 4/3 is way more successful than Disney expected but I am officially now freaking out . DH will kill me if we take the kids out of school and still spend 2 hours in line waiting for rides. My dates are May 3 - 9 - no spring break - no schools out - what happened! It's all 8s where just a couple of days ago it was 4s . The only good news is my best days haven't changed. We planned these dates for a number of reasons not least of which because it's not supposed to be crowded

ITA!! One of our best days changed - back to what it was a couple months ago and still what we were planning, so that I'm happy about!!

does anyone know - is there a place to see the historical Touring Plans crowd calendars? I didn't use it for our late April-early May 2007 trip and I'm curious to see what they were predicting for then. And compare it to what we experienced.

Very strange for every day in May to be so high, same as all summer...

 

[Sandy Fisher]

We live "locally" enough that we can pick and choose (most of the time) when we want to go to whichever park for a day.
We've been waiting for the numbers to improve. We had picked March 31 and April 1st because they were fives and we just wanted to go for a day. And we picked the so-called best parks.
Ha Ha.
Those two days were 5's. Now I looked and they are 7's. I wouldn't be suprised if they go higher before they actually get here. It would be nice to go now and then and not have to fight the crowds. We go over the winter except for the holidays, but this is the longest we've avoided going. We were at Epcot recently (a day or so before Flower and Garden officially started) and it was lovely. Not crowded, nice weather, etc. But MK and AK are so much worse when it's truly crowded. Guess we'll wait and try to find a day or two after Spring Break and Easter and before school lets out. Ha Ha again.

 

[Luvamouse]

I, too, like everyone else plan my trip around the crowd level predictors. I was unaware they changed them this close to dates. ... But, I'm curious...if there are crowd level predictors BEFORE you go, is it possible to get ACTUAL crowd level after the date?

We were there March 14-20. The crowds were the worst we've seen and we have been there for our spring break in 2004 and 2006. ...
The crowd predictions before we left were 6's - reality was more like 9's or 10's. This is probably why they are changing your predictions - they were proved wrong already.

On a more serious note, Touring Plans now says that backcasting their model for the past two weeks gives ratings of 9s and 10s (6s had been forecast) because the crowds turned out to be far larger than what even Disney was anticipating. And yet, we managed to survive that day (and all the others from March 17 through March 23, which weren't nearly so crazy) and did most everything we wanted to do. So for even for days rated as 9's and 10's, there is HOPE!

Yes, they did "backcast" as the last poster here noted. Since it is on UG, and I signed out to be sure this is not privileged info, here is the quote from UG's Crowd Calendar Guy...

Predicting the crowds at Walt Disney World has always been a challenge, but lately its become downright fickle business. Crowds from the last two weeks have been much larger than even Disney was expecting. Park hours were extended, parade performances were added to the daily schedules and fireworks shows were repeated on some nights. All of these factors are important parts of our model that predicts crowds. When Disney gets it wrong, its hard for us to get it right.

Still, if we backcast our model for the previous two weeks including changes to the schedules we get crowd estimates of 9 and 10, exactly what was observed.

I was with the rest of you going after Easter, the crowd levels were 7's and I felt pretty good. I know many more schools are out the week before if DIS and other Internet vacation blogs are to be believed. Hearing the crowd conditions in a time that said the days were 5,6 and 7's was making me very nervous! Reading now that they have to say they indicate 9's and 10's, I feel a BIT better. Unless as someone mentioned, they throw an 11 or 12 in...

Still, good timing, good planning and relaxing by the pool in the afternoon may be the only way to get through this. I know we all will since we have to. We're all goin' to DISNEY! Right??

***ETA-- and after driving 1400 miles to get there... we have to have a great time! It is 90% attitude we have found

 

[Condorman]

I hate to keep saying this, but when will people learn that the crowd calendars are worthless? Can we all agree that there will never be a day in WDW equal to a 1, 2 or 3? Can we agree that every day starts with at least a 4? With all the promotions, do you understand that most days will be 5 and 6? Spring and summer breaks will be 7 and 8, and holidays will be 9 and 10? Touringplans.com cannot predict the future. Please don't believe that they can. Don't invest $3000 in a family vacation thinking the first two weeks of December will be 3s and 4s. They will not. They will be 6s and 7s and probably higher.

I know no one will listen to me, or come up with rationalizations that the crowd calendars still serve a point. They do not.

 

[jtw]

Off topic, but I just gotta say, Condorman, I LOVE YOUR AVATAR AND BOARD NAME

Carry on...

 

[Poohs#1fan]

ITA!! One of our best days changed - back to what it was a couple months ago and still what we were planning, so that I'm happy about!!

does anyone know - is there a place to see the historical Touring Plans crowd calendars? I didn't use it for our late April-early May 2007 trip and I'm curious to see what they were predicting for then. And compare it to what we experienced.

Very strange for every day in May to be so high, same as all summer...

I just saw that we are going to be at the Poly the same time. I checked out that website today and for regular reservations not 4/3, every room category is available. So the resort can't be too crazy busy. Or at least I'm hoping.

 

[Rock'n Robin]

We are going the Monday before to Monday after Easter--school vacation time since I teach. It was 8s and 9s at one point, now every day is a 10. We went the week after Easter last year so we know to go at rope drop (we even rented a car this time) and take a break if needed. We also have at least one day penciled in to just play around the resort and go to DD. Easter Sunday we'll be at typhoon lagoon, which we did last year--I think earlier in the year people don't go to the water parks so much, but being from Ohio we will really enjoy it.
I have a "best park" planned every day--luck of the draw since I planned it a few months ago.
Heck, at least we've done it all, so if we miss something, oh well! See it in a year or two.
The worst I've ever seen is NYE (we were there Dec. 29-Jan. 2 one year). We were at Epcot but it was still ridiculous. We'll see if this spring break is worse, since last year's was OK in comparison.
Robin M.

 

[sandym718]

I hate to keep saying this, but when will people learn that the crowd calendars are worthless? Can we all agree that there will never be a day in WDW equal to a 1, 2 or 3? Can we agree that every day starts with at least a 4? With all the promotions, do you understand that most days will be 5 and 6? Spring and summer breaks will be 7 and 8, and holidays will be 9 and 10? Touringplans.com cannot predict the future. Please don't believe that they can. Don't invest $3000 in a family vacation thinking the first two weeks of December will be 3s and 4s. They will not. They will be 6s and 7s and probably higher.

I know no one will listen to me, or come up with rationalizations that the crowd calendars still serve a point. They do not.

We can agree to all of that! BUT..... (Big but - like mine, ha, ha!) Early May is not a spring or summer school break, no major holiday (Mother's Day is after our trip, still not a traveling holiday). So, from the things you mentioned, we're left with just a promotion -4/3. So, 5's and 6's? That I expect and understand, an 8 or 9 thrown in on the weekend, sure. But 8's or 9's every single day of May? That's where I"m thrown for a loop! Will it really be as busy or almost as busy as Spring Break weeks, summer and even parts of Christmas break? I'm really hoping not!

 

[mmmears]

I have to say that, like many of you (I'm assuming), I did think the numbers were going to go up. I thought that when I looked up the park and fireworks hours and saw that Disney had significantly increased them. I figured they wouldn't be spending the extra money for nothing...

 

[sandym718]

I just saw that we are going to be at the Poly the same time. I checked out that website today and for regular reservations not 4/3, every room category is available. So the resort can't be too crazy busy. Or at least I'm hoping.

Well, that is good news! Thanks for sharing that. It's such a relaxing, peaceful resort, I hope it is that way for our trips - even if the parks are busy, it can be such a respite!

 

[NeverBeen2DW]

People are saying the TGM has not updated anything based on Disney changing the park hours. HTH

when did they change the park hours? I assume this means the park are now open later? and I am not sure what you mean about TGM is he saying because the hours are now longer it will not affect his predictions? Confused.

 

[ChrisMouse]

Just looked at the WDW park hours and am amazed by the 1am closing PLUS EMH on Sunday May 3rd. It just defies all logic.

I don't get it? What on earth is going on that week that I didn't know about?

 

[ChrisMouse]

Oh, and what a tragedy that they cancelled the P&PP this spring...due to LOW ATTENDANCE.

 

[NeverBeen2DW]

can you post the link? I can't find it for some reason.

 

[EmilyJ]

I noticed last night that Disney had extended tehir hours. One day open til 3 am. Im nervous......

 

[*disgal*]

Let's hope that TP is just covering theselves from the wrong predictions the last couple of weeks. If everyday is listed as an 8 or 9 then you plan for the worse and hope for the best, and TP's won't get anymore complaints or requests for rerunds since they were so off the last couple weeks. Mabe??

Our May days just went from 4's and 5's to 8 's and 9's. Just doens't seem that possible, I am doubting all the info I have received from them now.

Really. I didn't know that. I must have missed that on the board. Was there a thread on it or something?

My mother and sisters are coming out to visit me from Massachusetts for the girls' april vacation. They're on vacation from the 19-26th for their school district.

OOOOoooooh. I was wondering. That's something because I really thought we were the last since our schools go until almost the end of June. Fortunately my kids go to private school so they get out June 10.