Crowd calendar vs reality?

[mjlum]

Ill start off by saying that we are used to visiting during low crowd periods, so not sure what more crowded periods are like. We were at DL Mon, Tue, both predicted to be a 2, but Splash was 60 min, Small World was 30 min, Jungle Cruise was 30-40 min, Peter Pan 50 min in the MORNING. I suspect its worse in the afternoon. Is this what we would expect for a 2? Today was predicted a 6 and Thurs an 8. What can we expect in wait times?

 

[starjazz]

I'm far from a DLR expert, but I'm surprised any crowd calendar would have a day this close to Christmas as a 2.

 

[DarthMole]

I'm far from a DLR expert, but I'm surprised any crowd calendar would have a day this close to Christmas as a 2.

I agree.

OP - Your expectation should be for the park to be more crowded today and tomorrow, however the possibility of rain tomorrow could provide some relief.

 

[Girimama33]

Crowd calendars are notoriously incorrect when it comes to DLR.


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[DisneytheKid]

Crowd calendars are notoriously incorrect when it comes to DLR.


Posted from Disney Forums Reader for Android

Good to know!

 

[HydroGuy]

Ill start off by saying that we are used to visiting during low crowd periods, so not sure what more crowded periods are like. We were at DL Mon, Tue, both predicted to be a 2, but Splash was 60 min, Small World was 30 min, Jungle Cruise was 30-40 min, Peter Pan 50 min in the MORNING. I suspect its worse in the afternoon. Is this what we would expect for a 2? Today was predicted a 6 and Thurs an 8. What can we expect in wait times?

The TP DLR Crowd Calendar has many issues - foremost of which is they do not even follow their own statistical rules. See

"Why I Am Skeptical of the Touring Plans Website DLR Crowd Calendar" http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3196851

 

[mirage0306]

We were also there on Monday when Touring Plans had Disneyland at a 1.4 (and DCA at a 3). NO WAY was that a 1, LOL. Over the weekend (we were there then too) it was supposed to have been about a nine. I think it was a little lighter on Monday than over the weekend, but not by much. I'd put it around a 7.

 

[MychaelP]

Mid September before the Halloween decorations come out; the Crowd Calendar is accurate. But many other times it is not. Just always assume Mondays are horrible there. No matter what they calendar says, avoid them if you can. I've also never visited on a Friday and it appeared to be a 5. They are almost always an 8 or above in my opinion.
Also the week after Christmas Season in the parks is usually uncrowded. Even on weekends comparatively.

 

[Cheshirecatty]

the tp dlr crowd calendar has many issues - foremost of which is they do not even follow their own statistical rules. See

"why i am skeptical of the touring plans website dlr crowd calendar" http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3196851

^^^^^THIS--Absolutely!!!!!^^^^^^

 

[YukonMommy]

I would think wait times will be about the same, maybe on the more popular rides longer. With a week until Xmas Day I would think there will be no such thing as slow or less crowded days until after the new year.

 

[wiigirl]

Crowd calendars are notoriously incorrect when it comes to DLR.


Posted from Disney Forums Reader for Android

 

[Mary484]

You have to remember that crown calendars are based off what the crowds were like the year before. As more people use crowd calendar and all decide to go on a day that's rated a "1 out of 10" the crowd will end up bigger than it had in the past years.

 

[lexysdad04]

I would think wait times will be about the same, maybe on the more popular rides longer. With a week until Xmas Day I would think there will be no such thing as slow or less crowded days until after the new year.

This, and only going to get worse until about 1 week after the first of jan does it start to get better

Sent from my iPhone using DISBoards

 

[HydroGuy]

Mid September before the Halloween decorations come out; the Crowd Calendar is accurate. But many other times it is not. Just always assume Mondays are horrible there. No matter what they calendar says, avoid them if you can. I've also never visited on a Friday and it appeared to be a 5. They are almost always an 8 or above in my opinion.
Also the week after Christmas Season in the parks is usually uncrowded. Even on weekends comparatively.

You have to remember that crown calendars are based off what the crowds were like the year before. As more people use crowd calendar and all decide to go on a day that's rated a "1 out of 10" the crowd will end up bigger than it had in the past years.

I need to emphasize here that the TP crowd calendar for DLR is never accurate. It has nothing to with them "basing things on last year". It has everything to do with them not following their own published statistical methods.

I mean I could say every day at DLR for the whole year is a 10. It is true I would be right 10% of the time. But that does mean my prediction was accurate. It means by random chance I was right some days. The TP calendar rates 33% of all DLR days as a 9 or a 10. But their own method by definition says only 20% can be a 9 or a 10. So by definition they are wrong every single day. Or at best they are randomly correct.

I explained this in the previous link:

The TP DLR Crowd Calendar has many issues - foremost of which is they do not even follow their own statistical rules. See

"Why I Am Skeptical of the Touring Plans Website DLR Crowd Calendar" http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3196851

 

[mjlum]

Thanks for all the feedback. Next time we plan a trip, I won't put much weight into the crowd calendar. As I mentioned, Mon and tues were too low on the predictor, then we found Thurs was a little high but probably because of the rain. It was the first time I was hoping for a little rain. When it cleared up, the crowds seemed to grow. We took naps during what sounded like really heavy rain. We had to go this week anyway, regardless of the crowd calendar so it wouldn't have changed our plans. Would have changed our expectations. We were able to get on the stuff we really wanted to see... Weren't able to get on as many times as we usually do. I'm sure my little ones are ok with that and so am I.

 

[Brumeiser]

If this is not allowed please moderator delete this post and I am sorry. My wife and I are taking our 1st trip next year for Christmas and would love to have a park map and show schedule for each park. I know things will change by next year but we are more of looking at a map for more of a visual type people. I can paypal you postage if you need money for the postage. We are also leaving January 2 day open if we feel we need to add a day from the week of Christmas. Thanks everyone.

 

[Brumeiser]

sorry about that

 

[mom2rtk]

I need to emphasize here that the TP crowd calendar for DLR is never accurate. It has nothing to with them "basing things on last year". It has everything to do with them not following their own published statistical methods.

I mean I could say every day at DLR for the whole year is a 10. It is true I would be right 10% of the time. But that does mean my prediction was accurate. It means by random chance I was right some days. The TP calendar rates 33% of all DLR days as a 9 or a 10. But their own method by definition says only 20% can be a 9 or a 10. So by definition they are wrong every single day. Or at best they are randomly correct.

I explained this in the previous link:

TP must have hired a bunch of meteorologists. They are used to getting away with that sort of a track record.

 

[jennilouwho]

I have found this one to be more accurate than TP and I don't know how much "scientific data" goes into it. http://www.isitpacked.com/disneyland-crowd-forecast-predictor-calendar/

When we were there the first week of December TP said it should be a 1 out of 10. It definitely wasn't that. I'd say more of a 4 and then Friday a lot more crowded.

 

[Judy from Boise]

If this is not allowed please moderator delete this post and I am sorry. My wife and I are taking our 1st trip next year for Christmas and would love to have a park map and show schedule for each park. I know things will change by next year but we are more of looking at a map for more of a visual type people. I can paypal you postage if you need money for the postage. We are also leaving January 2 day open if we feel we need to add a day from the week of Christmas. Thanks everyone.

Do you use a smart phone or tablet ? there are some fabulous apps out there that do this and more (menus etc)