crowd calendar question

[vtwep]

We've been keeping an eye on a couple different weeks in Oct/Nov for heading to WDW. One of the weeks (8 days) had six 4's and two 6's. Just looked again - it has changed to seven 4's and one 5.

Now, that is great if accurate. But what would make a crowd calendar change this far in advance? I thought it was based on historical data? I'm sure I'm missing something.

Thanks.

 

[Robo]

what would make a crowd calendar change this far in advance?

 

[Violet Parr]

OMG! I am SO glad you posted this! I have no idea why they've gone down, but I checked our dates and ALL of the 5's and 6's have gone down to ALL 4's! I hope it isn't a glitch! Might be a good idea to email Len Testa to see for sure. If it is correct, that would be FAB!

VP

 

[CanadianPaco]

Ours changed from 6's to 5's. I thought I had written down the wrong numbers at first.

 

[Violet Parr]

My first thought is that something is wrong with the algorithm...or that an important variable was removed from the equation. Waiting...

VP

 

[Goofy4]

For our June trip last year the numbers went way up around 3 weeks out. Rather disappointing given that given that with the history you speak of, a change of 1 (maybe 2) either way would be about all you would see.

I think decisions are not being made as far in advance now days (and Robo's crystal ball is broken).

 

[Violet Parr]

I think decisions are not being made as far in advance now days (and Robo's crystal ball is broken).

I don't know, our trip is the first two weeks in December and our numbers just went down.

VP

 

[jenga1030]

The 2 weeks we are going in September all went down to all 4s and two 5s. I was very excited to see that, but looking closer at the park recommendations, things seem to be a bit off.

They are recommending parks on EMH days and Fantasmic days. The recent changes they have completely flipped parks from recommended to avoid all of a sudden. So I'm not sure how accurate they are right now. A few people have noticed and commented on it, so hopefully they'll clarify soon.

The 4s look great for me, but now I find myself with a schedule completely opposite of theirs since we avoid EMH parks. And I have ADRs to make tomorrow! I'm just sticking with my original plan though.

 

[vtwep]

well, it's good to see others going down as well...let's just hope it stays that way! That would be fantastic.

Robo - thanks for the reply! Your replies are always highly informational, good for a chuckle, or both. Appreciate it.

 

[LoriABil]

Maybe the numbers from 2009 just came out and changed the estimates? Just a guess...

 

[oasispaul]

I believe one of the factors driving the change in numbers is the realization that Disney might NOT offer a major promotion during the 2nd half of 2010.

The initial numbers may have assumed some type of promotion would be in effect. The updated numbers might signal a belief that no major promotions will be announced for the 2nd half of 2010.

 

[Violet Parr]

I believe one of the factors driving the change in numbers is the realization that Disney might NOT offer a major promotion during the 2nd half of 2010.

The initial numbers may have assumed some type of promotion would be in effect. The updated numbers might signal a belief that no major promotions will be announced for the 2nd half of 2010.[/QUOTE]

I think this is the most likely explanation. (And if so, wahoo!)

Here's a little bit of an explanation of the Sept. changes:

http://blog.touringplans.com/2010/03/03/crowd-calendar-update-for-september-2010/


VP

 

[MErnst]

We've been keeping an eye on a couple different weeks in Oct/Nov for heading to WDW. One of the weeks (8 days) had six 4's and two 6's. Just looked again - it has changed to seven 4's and one 5.

Now, that is great if accurate. But what would make a crowd calendar change this far in advance? I thought it was based on historical data? I'm sure I'm missing something.

Thanks.

where can I find the crowd calendar you are referring to?

Thanks,
M

 

[mickeyluv'r]

Just back. Never trusted crowd calendars, probably never will. For hoots, after reading OMG threads about high cc numbers, I checked for our time in WDW. Projections were between 4 and 7.....um, actual crowds were more in the 2-3 range, maybe hit a four one day, by my estimation.

To give a concrete example, at 10:30 am, TSM had a 30 minute wait. At 1pm, it was more like 20 minutes total to complete the ride. The interior line barely extended to Mr.Potatohead- because folks were taking pictures.

Many rides were near walk-on, or twenty minutes tops. A few exceptions were Peter Pan , mid day Space Mtn had 30 min waits. Buzz was only like 10 min. At one very short period, Splash, the first day it opend, had a 70 min wait, but we'd walked on earlier and we walked on later that same day. BTMRR also had some line in the afternoon, but during emh was practically walk-on. We hardly used fastpasses.

 

[TerrytownGrl]

We've been keeping an eye on a couple different weeks in Oct/Nov for heading to WDW. One of the weeks (8 days) had six 4's and two 6's. Just looked again - it has changed to seven 4's and one 5.

Now, that is great if accurate. But what would make a crowd calendar change this far in advance? I thought it was based on historical data? I'm sure I'm missing something.

Thanks.

Just for the fun of it, I checked out the crowd calendar for Thanksgiving week. The days that were 8's and 9's are now solid 10's.

When we visited for TG week 2008, the numbers were originally 9's and 10's and went down to 7's and 8's. So hopefully the numbers for TG week this year will be revised down, eventually!

 

[vtwep]

where can I find the crowd calendar you are referring to?

Thanks,
M

I got them on touringplans.com They go a certain time out, but if you subscribe to the site, you can see the full year (plenty of other info on their site as well).

Just back. Never trusted crowd calendars, probably never will.

Not sure I ever really count on the precise crowd level from these calendars - but I do check to see if the estimates are in the 4-5-6 range, or in the 8-9-10 range. That gives me some idea of what to expect.

And I hadn't thought about last year's data being released plus the possibility of no second half promotions...both very plausible explanations. Thanks.

 

[Bill and Jen]

Just back. Never trusted crowd calendars, probably never will. For hoots, after reading OMG threads about high cc numbers, I checked for our time in WDW. Projections were between 4 and 7.....um, actual crowds were more in the 2-3 range, maybe hit a four one day, by my estimation.

To give a concrete example, at 10:30 am, TSM had a 30 minute wait. At 1pm, it was more like 20 minutes total to complete the ride. The interior line barely extended to Mr.Potatohead- because folks were taking pictures.

Many rides were near walk-on, or twenty minutes tops. A few exceptions were Peter Pan , mid day Space Mtn had 30 min waits. Buzz was only like 10 min. At one very short period, Splash, the first day it opend, had a 70 min wait, but we'd walked on earlier and we walked on later that same day. BTMRR also had some line in the afternoon, but during emh was practically walk-on. We hardly used fastpasses.

First my post is not meant to defend the Crowd Calander or even talk about how accurate or inaccurate it is.

It just frustrates me when people go on about any topic totally ignorant and pass on poor information.

The Crowd calender is based upon only 1 thing, and 1 thing only. The Magic Kingdom Peak Wait Times For SM/BTMR/SM.

The numbers have absolutely no meaning to what it was like in DS or AK etc..

Further the comments of it felt like a 2 or it seemed to me the day was a 3 is totally subjective unless you have the data on what the Peak Wait Times For SM/BTMR/SM were for that day then used the chart below to call it that.

Doing anything else when talking about the Crowd Calendar is wrong, and passes on misinformation.

Case in point ....

Level Magic Kingdom Peak Wait Time For SM/BTMR/SM
1 14 mins. or less
2 15 - 24 mins.
3 25 - 34 mins.
4 35 - 44 mins.
5 45 - 54 mins.
6 55 - 64 mins.
7 65 - 74 mins.
8 75 - 84 mins.
9 85 - 94 mins.
10 95 mins. or more

So as you can see the day you saw SM as a 30 min wait, that would make it a solid level 4, not a 2 or a 3 as you "felt".

 

[bigAWL]

The 2 weeks we are going in September all went down to all 4s and two 5s. I was very excited to see that, but looking closer at the park recommendations, things seem to be a bit off.

They are recommending parks on EMH days and Fantasmic days. The recent changes they have completely flipped parks from recommended to avoid all of a sudden. So I'm not sure how accurate they are right now. A few people have noticed and commented on it, so hopefully they'll clarify soon.

The 4s look great for me, but now I find myself with a schedule completely opposite of theirs since we avoid EMH parks. And I have ADRs to make tomorrow! I'm just sticking with my original plan though.

It does look weird. Epcot recommended for an EMH Tuesday and not on Wednesday?

I also noticed that all through Sep, Oct, and Nov, the only days DHS isn't recommended are Thursdays and national holidays (with only 2-3 exceptions). They could expect that low crowds in general mean DHS will almost never be really crowded.

 

[Andrea73]

I am a newbie, but a lot of school systems are just now releasing calendars for next year.

We are going the week before and of T-Giving. (Nov 17th-24th) Our school system is the largest in GA and for the 1st time ever is getting the entire week of T-Giving off. That could have influenced the numbers for T-Giving week. They are 4'st the 1st 2 days of our trip and solid 10's from the Sat before T-Giving on.

This is our 1st time at Disney. Our schools go back in early August. The moment the calendar hit the internet, we decided to go to Disney that week. I am sure others in the area who have never gone or who usually pull their kids out to go have done the same.

 

[HdnMickeyGrl]

Can't speak to the recommended days but I agree with the promotion theory. It was just a few days ago that Disney announced the winding down of GAD. I think they must have expected GAD to affect the numbers and just ratcheted the numbers down because of it.

Although, I'm not sure if that makes sense because there's still a million volunteers and the vouchers are still good through the end of the year (minus the blackout) so who knows.