COVID Predictions - did they get it right?

Lumpy1106

DIS Veteran
Joined
Jul 2, 2010
Messages
4,489
I was actually searching for a different article that predicted how the virus would play out through the winter. Seems like I saw one really early on and it had graphs for a couple of different scenarios, one of which I recall came really close to what happened - can't find the article right now though. Anyway, I did find this article and I found it interesting to see what the experts got right and wrong to maybe get a better feel for what happens next. Here's the article from August 5;
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02278-5
The author predicted (worldwide, by March '21):
  • 294 Million infections (Actual right now, 107.75 Million)
  • 2.01 Million deaths (actual right now, 2.36 Million)
So, WAY off on the infections prediction, and on the low side for deaths. We still have 3 weeks left of course. It has been FAR deadlier per infection than the experts had predicted - that's interesting. I'd love to see some other predictions from early summer if anyone can find any links.
 












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