Covid And The Rest of Us

[BadPinkTink]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ire...t-risk-prosecution-drew-harris-says-1.4483472
Very interesting times in Ireland right now. There is a small minority of people who continue to break the rules and travel to the Spanish Canary Islands for a sun holiday. In response to this , over the last few weeks the Irish Government have increased the fines from €100 to €500 for people stopped at the Police checkpoints at the airports who are travelling for non essential reasons. People are getting around the rules and going on sun holidays by booking dental appointments in various Spanish Canary Islands. That way they can show the official documentation and say, look I have a medical appointment and thats why I need to travel to Lanzarote or Tenerife. Then when they get there, they are no shows at the medical centres. Now the Irish Police going to increase the fine to €2000 and are working with the various medical centres in the Spanish Canary Islands to get the details of Irish people who are making appointments. The Irish Police Commissioner has now said that any Irish people who are making dental appointments in the Spanish Canary Islands will be prosecuted on their return to Ireland, in addition to the €2000 fine.

 

[ronandannette]

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ire...t-risk-prosecution-drew-harris-says-1.4483472
Very interesting times in Ireland right now. There is a small minority of people who continue to break the rules and travel to the Spanish Canary Islands for a sun holiday. In response to this , over the last few weeks the Irish Government have increased the fines from €100 to €500 for people stopped at the Police checkpoints at the airports who are travelling for non essential reasons. People are getting around the rules and going on sun holidays by booking dental appointments in various Spanish Canary Islands. That way they can show the official documentation and say, look I have a medical appointment and thats why I need to travel to Lanzarote or Tenerife. Then when they get there, they are no shows at the medical centres. Now the Irish Police going to increase the fine to €2000 and are working with the various medical centres in the Spanish Canary Islands to get the details of Irish people who are making appointments. The Irish Police Commissioner has now said that any Irish people who are making dental appointments in the Spanish Canary Islands will be prosecuted on their return to Ireland, in addition to the €2000 fine.

How are your numbers? Anything getting better? I hope this finds you well.

I bolded your last sentence because here in Canada, getting out of the country isn't the problem; getting back in is. While citizens cannot be legally prevented from leaving or denied re-entry, there are all kinds of recently-imposed sanctions to those returning from abroad including a 3-day stay at a mandated facility at the non-negotiable rate of $2,000/per person plus the cost of testing. The government openly admits this is intended to be financially punitive, and a strong deterrent, rather than having any significant safety impact. All in-bound international flights have been re-directed to either Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto or Montreal, where these so-called Covid-Hotels are located and passengers are escorted from the airport directly there and held under security. All outbound flights from anywhere in Canada to anywhere in Mexico and the Caribbean have been suspended as of January 29. This has been yet another crushing blow to our Canadian airline industry with hundreds and hundreds of new job losses on top of the thousands already lost.

Meanwhile, here in Alberta our curve is bending decisively in the right direction. Good thing; between Covid and the weather, people's spirits are collectively low right now. There are no plans to drastically ease restrictions but as of this week, restaurants are re-opened for dine-in under very strict conditions, as are salons and some personal services. DH and I went out for breakfast today and I got a haircut - the first of each since last November. It helped quite a bit.

 

[BadPinkTink]

How are your numbers? Anything getting better? I hope this finds you well.

The Irish Government are worried that while our numbers are dropping, they are plateauing at a very high level. We are still averaging about 1000 new cases in a 24 hour period. In addition to people travelling for medical tourism, theres still too much mixing of households. People are finding loopholes like socializing in supermarkets or walking in groups in parks. Also there is a huge amount of hairdressers and beauty therapists doing house calls, which is not only against Covid rules but illegal as they are not insured. Basically people can't see how their loopholes and pushing the limits of the restrictions are contributing to the high numbers.

There is also a lot of fatigue in the more rural , low population areas, who think that they shouldn't have the same restrictions as the big population areas.

The next review of our restrictions is due at the end of February, with 5 of March the date when any changes will come into effect. Its not expected that we will move down to Level 4 but that things such as non essential construction can restart and that the 5km non essential travel limit will be increased to travel within the county.

The Irish Government are taking a much more cautious approach to reopening and have admitted that after previous lockdowns, things were reopened too fast.

This weekend nearly 2000 GP's and practice nurses were vaccinated in preparation for the start of community vaccinations. Group 3 , the over 70's who don't live in care homes will start being vaccinated from Monday 15th February. Group 3 has 4 sub sections, which are in, order of priority

1. 85 and older
2. 80 to 84
3. 75 to 79
4. 70 to 74

These people will be contacted by their GP and given an appointment. In some areas, where the amount of people in the various age groups is small, the GP's will join together and some people will get an appointment at a GP surgery who is not their normal care provider.

 

[ronandannette]

The Irish Government are worried that while our numbers are dropping, they are plateauing at a very high level. We are still averaging about 1000 new cases in a 24 hour period. In addition to people travelling for medical tourism, theres still too much mixing of households. People are finding loopholes like socializing in supermarkets or walking in groups in parks. Also there is a huge amount of hairdressers and beauty therapists doing house calls, which is not only against Covid rules but illegal as they are not insured. Basically people can't see how their loopholes and pushing the limits of the restrictions are contributing to the high numbers.

There is also a lot of fatigue in the more rural , low population areas, who think that they shouldn't have the same restrictions as the big population areas.

The next review of our restrictions is due at the end of February, with 5 of March the date when any changes will come into effect. Its not expected that we will move down to Level 4 but that things such as non essential construction can restart and that the 5km non essential travel limit will be increased to travel within the county.

The Irish Government are taking a much more cautious approach to reopening and have admitted that after previous lockdowns, things were reopened too fast.

This weekend nearly 2000 GP's and practice nurses were vaccinated in preparation for the start of community vaccinations. Group 3 , the over 70's who don't live in care homes will start being vaccinated from Monday 15th February. Group 3 has 4 sub sections, which are in, order of priority

1. 85 and older
2. 80 to 84
3. 75 to 79
4. 70 to 74

These people will be contacted by their GP and given an appointment. In some areas, where the amount of people in the various age groups is small, the GP's will join together and some people will get an appointment at a GP surgery who is not their normal care provider.

All these things play out in some form or fashion here too, although our daily numbers are currently in the 300's/per day and hospitilizations are slowing. Unfortunately, we're still recording a dozen or so deaths-per-day as the most grave cases contracted over the past month come to a tragic conclusion. It's still almost exclusively the elderly that are perishing.

Restrictions here were eased just a teensy bit at the beginning of February to allow for outdoor social meeting (up to 6 people from a maximum of 2 households). That seemed to act as a release-valve; at least there is now some permitted way to see loved ones where as it had been totally prohibited since November. Re-opening salons was also a smart move as the rules and restrictions for their shops are very stringent and compliance is extremely high. Much safer to go in under controls than to have people clandestinely meeting behind closed doors.

We've got the problem of regional differences here in a big way too. Many isolated and remote communities have had no Covid at all but are still under the same draconian rules as the cities. Compliance there has been much less cooperative (or so the news says) and honestly - who can blame them, really?

The vaccination program remains a very sore subject (no pun intended) as our supply remains almost completely shut off and at the whim of the European producers apparently.

 

[Karin1984]

Not much news from NL, figures are going down, schools have reopened, but had to close several times due to snow/ice.
Most exciting thing is that as of this week several tests will start in restaurants, theaters, football matches and dance events. The first theater event was last night, where the audience was divided in several groups, where some had to wear masks, some didn't, some only when walking around during intermission, some behind screens etc. They had to have a negative PCR test, had a temperature check and need to get tested 5 days from now.

 

[ronandannette]

Not much news from NL, figures are going down, schools have reopened, but had to close several times due to snow/ice.
Most exciting thing is that as of this week several tests will start in restaurants, theaters, football matches and dance events. The first theater event was last night, where the audience was divided in several groups, where some had to wear masks, some didn't, some only when walking around during intermission, some behind screens etc. They had to have a negative PCR test, had a temperature check and need to get tested 5 days from now.

I can't really imagine what all this means. Please tell us how it's all organized? What exactly are they "testing" and why are the test subjects all at the same event? What are the goals? It seems pretty complicated.

 

[Karin1984]

I can't really imagine what all this means. Please tell us how it's all organized? What exactly are they "testing" and why are the test subjects all at the same event? What are the goals? It seems pretty complicated.

It's to look what would happen when we reopen. What happens when you let 500 people watch a show in an indoor location with Covid around, what are the results of those wearing masks, what of those behind screens, etc. will people get covid, and if yes are there measures that are more effective than others. The shows in the theater are a one man stand up show, so it's not what's happening onstage, but really what happens in the audience. 500 people is about a third of the theater capacity. Each group has their own set of bathrooms and stay in their own 'bubble'.

At a certain point in time these kind of events need to happen again. We can wait till covid is completely gone, or see what is possible in between.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

It's to look what would happen when we reopen. What happens when you let 500 people watch a show in an indoor location with Covid around, what are the results of those wearing masks, what of those behind screens, etc. will people get covid, and if yes are there measures that are more effective than others. The shows in the theater are a one man stand up show, so it's not what's happening onstage, but really what happens in the audience. 500 people is about a third of the theater capacity. Each group has their own set of bathrooms and stay in their own 'bubble'.

At a certain point in time these kind of events need to happen again. We can wait till covid is completely gone, or see what is possible in between.

Not a bad idea but I sorta wonder if the results will be accurate. There's no control going on because of what happens after people leave these events. How would they know that someone contracted covid from one of these events and not just out and about some other way? The only way I can think of is if it's like super spreader events where clearly pinpointing back to one event. Is this being run as part of a scientific study or just something officials are trying out?

 

[Karin1984]

Not a bad idea but I sorta wonder if the results will be accurate. There's no control going on because of what happens after people leave these events. How would they know that someone contracted covid from one of these events and not just out and about some other way? The only way I can think of is if it's like super spreader events where clearly pinpointing back to one event. Is this being run as part of a scientific study or just something officials are trying out?

It's a study. A hospital is in charge of it. I am sure that the people attending are informed what to do or not to do after the event. Of course you can only hope that people will obey all the rules, but that's the same now.
We were supposed to start in November with these tests, but due to the British mutation it was postponed till February. Germany and Spain did something similar last year. In Germany the result was that concerts could be done safely: Masks, good ventilation, social distancing and strict one way paths at the venue.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

It's a study. A hospital is in charge of it. I am sure that the people attending are informed what to do or not to do after the event. Of course you can only hope that people will obey all the rules, but that's the same now.
We were supposed to start in November with these tests, but due to the British mutation it was postponed till February. Germany and Spain did something similar last year. In Germany the result was that concerts could be done safely: Masks, good ventilation, social distancing and strict one way paths at the venue.

Ohhh I hadn't heard/remembered about Germany, okay that makes more sense modeling after something that was done before.

 

[ronandannette]

It's a study. A hospital is in charge of it. I am sure that the people attending are informed what to do or not to do after the event. Of course you can only hope that people will obey all the rules, but that's the same now.
We were supposed to start in November with these tests, but due to the British mutation it was postponed till February. Germany and Spain did something similar last year. In Germany the result was that concerts could be done safely: Masks, good ventilation, social distancing and strict one way paths at the venue.

There were no "experiments" conducted here and no large-venue events but for a while last summer, movie theatres were open. The conditions were very precise and monitored for enforcement: limited occupancy, assigned seating with "cohorts" only, nobody randomly walking around, everyone masked at all times except when eating. There were no reports of spread traced back to movie theatres, which our authorities admitted even as they were shutting them all down again in November.

 

[SirDuff]

Not a bad idea but I sorta wonder if the results will be accurate. There's no control going on because of what happens after people leave these events. How would they know that someone contracted covid from one of these events and not just out and about some other way? The only way I can think of is if it's like super spreader events where clearly pinpointing back to one event. Is this being run as part of a scientific study or just something officials are trying out?

But that is always (well, almost) true in a study. You assume/hope that most/all of the following are true:

• You randomized properly so that the other factors are even among your treatment groups
• You have a large enough sample size to even out any weirdos
• People are similar other than your treatment of interest
• You know the timeline between exposure and disease and you can use that to help strengthen the theory that your treatment is causing the outcome

At the end, you never conclude that your treatment (or exposure) caused your outcome - you can just reject the hypothesis that it didn't. A whole bunch of rejected hypotheses and you start to believe your theory.

And you could still be wrong

 

[BadPinkTink]

The big news in Ireland today is the official announcement of the locations of the vaccination hub centres. They are a mixture of hotels and conference centres, sports stadiums and university campus. As expected, social media was full people complaining. My mom will be eligible before me. My plan is to try first for our local GP surgery and then for the vaccination hub centre. Neither of us drive and we rely on public transport, so it would be better to try for an appointment at the GP surgery as my mom can walk there. However, as they are only starting people aged 85 and older this week, my mom, who is under 70, does not expect to be eligible until April.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

But that is always (well, almost) true in a study. You assume/hope that most/all of the following are true:

• You randomized properly so that the other factors are even among your treatment groups
• You have a large enough sample size to even out any weirdos
• People are similar other than your treatment of interest
• You know the timeline between exposure and disease and you can use that to help strengthen the theory that your treatment is causing the outcome

At the end, you never conclude that your treatment (or exposure) caused your outcome - you can just reject the hypothesis that it didn't. A whole bunch of rejected hypotheses and you start to believe your theory.

And you could still be wrong

Oh for sure and you bring up good points

I just meant let's be real decisions are not necessarily made with much forethought throughout this pandemic. So when I heard that I was like "is this like closing all the restaurants down and business down without having data to back it up" type thing. If they are going to deem xyz is NOT safe I'd rather they have the data points to back it up and same if it is deemed safe.

In the U.S. a lot of decisions have been wishy-washy in that science is listened to this time but ignored the next time so I suppose I was reacting to that even though the poster was in NL and spoke about Germany. I'm appreciative for the clarification from the poster and your comments above though

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

The big news in Ireland today is the official announcement of the locations of the vaccination hub centres. They are a mixture of hotels and conference centres, sports stadiums and university campus. As expected, social media was full people complaining. My mom will be eligible before me. My plan is to try first for our local GP surgery and then for the vaccination hub centre. Neither of us drive and we rely on public transport, so it would be better to try for an appointment at the GP surgery as my mom can walk there. However, as they are only starting people aged 85 and older this week, my mom, who is under 70, does not expect to be eligible until April.

Is the complaining due to the locations of where these places will be or what the places are to begin with?

 

[BadPinkTink]

Is the complaining due to the locations of where these places will be or what the places are to begin with?

Mainly the locations. Looking at the list, they chose locations which are centralized to the majority of the population and have good transport options. But the issue many seem to have is that some counties are big land areas with small populations, so in those counties people will have to travel a big distance to the main town of the county. Where I live, my vaccination centre is about 5km from from house, but this area has a huge population.

 

[ronandannette]

But that is always (well, almost) true in a study. You assume/hope that most/all of the following are true:

• You randomized properly so that the other factors are even among your treatment groups
• You have a large enough sample size to even out any weirdos
• People are similar other than your treatment of interest
• You know the timeline between exposure and disease and you can use that to help strengthen the theory that your treatment is causing the outcome

At the end, you never conclude that your treatment (or exposure) caused your outcome - you can just reject the hypothesis that it didn't. A whole bunch of rejected hypotheses and you start to believe your theory.

And you could still be wrong

Well put.

 

[elphaba91]

2 pieces of good news on the vaccine front in Australia: Firstly, the first doses of the Pfizer vaccine have arrived. They will be doing batch testing and then vaccinations will start on Monday. Quarantine workers, front line health care workers and aged care and disability care workers and residents. Secondly, the Astra Zeneca vaccine has been approved. We are getting some doses from overseas but will also be manufacturing it here in Melbourne.

Victoria's lockdown will be ending tonight. The handful of cases we have had have been contained to close contacts of other positive cases and today we had zero cases again, after a record almost 40,000 tests. We will still have to wear masks anywhere indoors and outdoors if you can't socially distance and we are limited to 5 visitors at home and gatherings of 20 in public (unless a wedding or funeral), but everything else is back to normal. There will be crowds at the Australian Open tomorrow; meanwhile, I will be heading back to the office!

 

[TLSnell1981]

How are your numbers? Anything getting better? I hope this finds you well.

I bolded your last sentence because here in Canada, getting out of the country isn't the problem; getting back in is. While citizens cannot be legally prevented from leaving or denied re-entry, there are all kinds of recently-imposed sanctions to those returning from abroad including a 3-day stay at a mandated facility at the non-negotiable rate of $2,000/per person plus the cost of testing. The government openly admits this is intended to be financially punitive, and a strong deterrent, rather than having any significant safety impact. All in-bound international flights have been re-directed to either Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto or Montreal, where these so-called Covid-Hotels are located and passengers are escorted from the airport directly there and held under security. All outbound flights from anywhere in Canada to anywhere in Mexico and the Caribbean have been suspended as of January 29. This has been yet another crushing blow to our Canadian airline industry with hundreds and hundreds of new job losses on top of the thousands already lost.

Meanwhile, here in Alberta our curve is bending decisively in the right direction. Good thing; between Covid and the weather, people's spirits are collectively low right now. There are no plans to drastically ease restrictions but as of this week, restaurants are re-opened for dine-in under very strict conditions, as are salons and some personal services. DH and I went out for breakfast today and I got a haircut - the first of each since last November. It helped quite a bit.

View attachment 556149

Yikes! I didn't realize it was $2000 person. Guess I read it wrong initially.

 

[ronandannette]

Yikes! I didn't realize it was $2000 person. Guess I read it wrong initially.

The whole thing is crazy - yesterday it was announced that people need to make reservations at these gulags before returning to Canada. I don’t get what happens to people who land without the reservations or who simply don’t have the $2,000+ (they have to pay for their own testing too). Constitutionally, Canadians cannot be prevented from returning to the country.

We also await information about how these facilities were rolled out so quickly and how the contracts were awarded. This particular federal government is notorious for cronyism and preferential dealings with insiders. The exact name and locations of the facilities have not been released, let alone the terms of the deals.

We’ve also just in the past week or so finally had some information emerge shedding light on our vaccine supply issues. Turns out the contracts negotiated by the feds with the pharmaceutical companies only guaranteed supply on a quarterly basis, not at a steady pace or when our demand required them. Meaning that there is no recourse for us, as long as the doses are delivered by the end of March. We shall see.

Provincial Premiers have tried to right-the-ship by entering into individual purchase contracts directly with the manufacturers so that vaccination programs could continue at some sort of steady pace, which is totally permissible under the Canada Health Act as healthcare is a provincial jurisdiction. The shocking revelation came when it was discovered the feds wrote clauses into their own agreements prohibiting Pfizer and Moderna from selling directly to the provinces. This has sparked a good deal of outrage and again left us at the mercy of a plan that has clearly gone awry. Provinces are now rushing to sign up with AstraZenaca which seems to have resulted in the slowing of the approval process for their product, which could have happened already. It’s hard to know exactly what’s being played at here. The AZ product is the one the feds are trying to license for domestic production at our pie-in-the-sky facility that may or may not be ready to roll by 2022.