Covid And The Rest of Us

[White Cat]

 

[disneyholic family]

Updates from Ireland

Schools and all education facilities are closed until at least January 31. The Government had first announced that exam year secondary / highschool students would have in person classes 3 times a week but the teachers union threatened to strike. So now the government said everyone at home for online learning.

Construction except essential construction such as road maintenance has to close today. They were one of the few sectors still allowed to open, but now they have to close, so we are basically back to the same as March 2020.

There are talks to limit the sale of alcohol from grocery stores and liquor stores, which the public wont like.

Retail which had been doing click and collect / curbside pick up have either to close completely or have delivery only.

The latest figures Thursday 7 January for the previous 24 hour period
6521 new cases
10 deaths
1,043 patients are hospitalised, of which 96 are in ICU. There have been 99 additional hospitalisations

33% are over 45 with a significant portion of those over 65. The reproduction rate for the disease now stands between 2.4-3.

we also went into a stronger lockdown last night, including closing all schools for the first time since October (except for special ed, which is remaining open)
this lockdown is for 2 weeks as of now, though it could be extended.
since people are no longer scared the way they were during the first lockdown, they don't abide by the rules so well anymore.
but closing schools should help.
and with the vaccination program continuing 7 days a week, they say that we'll be completely vaccinated by the end of March (that is, those who want the vaccine, hopefully most will want)
so i guess that's when we'll find out how well the vaccine handles the mutations

Let's do some Dutch news again:
- We have the right needles where we can get an extra dose out of one bottle. Something to do with the amount of residu that is left after each shot. Belgium has the same, and will be able to get 70..000 shots more out of their current supply.
- Pregnant women might get the advice to get vaccinated, depending on underlying causes, or if they are medical personnel.
- We have both the more contagious British and South African mutations already
- 12-16 year olds seem more susceptible to spread the virus than we thought this summer (so letting the highschoolers go back was a mistake)
- People have antibodies in their blood might be the last to get their vaccinations, but that''s just a plan that's on the table now.
- A university are developing an app for people who are scared of needles. The principle is that you are playing a game on your phone, while the camera scans your face for signals of stress or angst which is reflected on the app after the game. Apparently getting biofeedback helps you to control it. Interesting
- Some military medical staff is used to help taking care of non-covid patients to free up medical personnel to take care of covid patients.

And the daily figures, 8.169 new infections, 89 deaths, and 37 new people on the ICU. But in total more people left the hospital than yesterday.
75% of the medical personnel has made their appointments in the first 5 days and all spots for January have been taken. Those who haven't been able to make their appointment, has to wait a few weeks. If they want to get vaccinated, of course.

In the last week of 2020 1700 people died, this is about 40% more than normal. This is about those with chronic illnesses, vulnerable elderly people, in nursing homes and those with several physical or mental disabilities. Within the rest of the Netherlands the death rate is like normal.

we also are using the extra dose in the pfizer vials, so 6 vaccines per vial rather than 5...
as for pregnant women, initially the health ministry had said no, but now they recommend the vaccine to any pregnant woman who wants it.
in schools here as well, the most pronounced spread was seen in the 12 - 16 year old age group..
.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I mentioned this on another thread but thought it might be something of value sorta-ish here as we've seen how other countries have been doing theirs. Keep in mind this is just for my state.

So today my governor adjusted the order in the phases. Those who are 65+ were moved from behind congregate settings to before them. At the moment my county advised they are following the governor's plan. I would expect these to be fluid in movement, as they should be IMO. It's one of the most detailed lists I've seen yet.



Phase 1:

• Health care workers
• Residents or patients in long-term care facilities and senior housing
• Workers critical to pandemic response continuity

*Phase 1 groups have already begun to receive vaccines

Phase 2:

• Persons aged 65 and older

• High-contact critical workers necessary to maintain systems, assets, and activities that are vital to the state security, the economy or public health, or who interact with large numbers of contacts and job-related COVID-19 exposure. COVID-19 risk is associated with the likelihood of infecting oneself or spreading the virus. Factors that increase risk include proximity, type of contact, duration of contacts and challenges to implement protective measures. This includes:
o Firefighters, police officers, first responders, and correction officers {Looks like this was a slight adjustment too to do it before inmates as a whole for correction officers, before it was described they would be more together}
o Grocery store workers and food services
o K-12 and childcare workers, including teachers, custodians, drivers, and other staff
o Food processing, including meat processing plants
o Large-scale aviation manufacturing plants
o Transportation workers
o Workers in retail, agriculture, supply of critical services or materials for COVID-19 response, the U.S. Postal Service, and Department of motor vehicles

• Those living or working in licensed congregate settings and other special care or congregate environments where social distancing is not possible, including:
o Homeless shelters
o Congregate childcare institutions
o Emergency shelters or safe houses
o Corrections facilities
o Behavioral health institutions

Phase 3:

• Those aged 16-64 with serious medical conditions that increase the risk for severe illness from COVID-19, including:
o Cancer
o Chronic kidney disease
o Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
o Down Syndrome
o Heart conditions like cardiomyopathies
o Immunocompromised state from solid organ transplant
o Type 2 diabetes
o Sickle cell disease
o Pregnant patients

• Other non-health care workers in critical infrastructure who cannot work remotely, including:
o Agricultural and food workers not included in previous phases
o Workers performing in-person activities indoors, in critical manufacturing, not included in previous phases. This includes aviation and production of critical supplies for the COVID response
o Utility workers
o Social service and government workers not included in previous phases
o Logistics workers, such as truck transportation workers, couriers and others
o Water and wastewater workers
o Shelter and housing workers, finance workers
o Information technology and communications workers

Phase 4:

• Those aged 16-64 with other medical conditions that increase the risk for severe illness from COVID-19 such as:
o Asthma
o Cerebrovascular disease
o Cystic Fibrosis
o Immunocompromised state from blood or bone marrow transplant, immune deficiencies, or use of immune weakening medicines
o Neurologic conditions such as dementia
o Liver disease
o Pulmonary fibrosis
o Type 1 diabetes
o Obesity and severe obesity

Phase 5:

• The rest of the population 16 and older
• Potentially children, dependent upon further research on the effectiveness and risks associated with vaccinating kids

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Most of the time in the States if there is remote or hybrid learning it's middle and high school aged kids as they are older and spread concerns. Elementary school aged kids are often prioritized to be in-person, when in-person is even happening, which their spread rate helps with that.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

In other news, a further 1,000 jobs lost in the airline industry yesterday in addition apparently 63,000 nation-wide across all sectors in December due to every province increasing their restrictions.
WestJet puts 1,000 workers on leave, citing government's 'incoherent' policy (msn.com)

Southwest is my favorite airline so I've been keenly watching their situation. It doesn't look good but then sometimes it doesn't look as bad as it was. We have several hundred thousand points stored up thanks to my husband traveling for work a lot (and then private trips just mostly business flying) plus their branded CC. There's been a lot of talk about how the airline industry in the U.S. could be impacted with it being expected to have an airline go out of business unless the government bails them out; Southwest is usually one of the main ones being discussed.

I remember the commercials for WestJet on that one thread, it's sad to see a company that obviously cares about other people experience such distress

 

[elphaba91]

Good Morning! Thanks for this - I was wondering how it was going. Regarding Brisbane, what is the mood towards repeated on-again-off-again lock-downs announced at a moment’s notice? What all does it entail? I’m thinking specifically about businesses - it would seem very difficult to be on a hamster wheel of opening and closing.

I don’t really know anyone in Brisbane personally, but they haven’t been in lockdown since the start of May. They even had 100% capacity at theatres and in open air stadiums. In fact, the maximum number of lockdowns any place has gone through is 2: Victoria (which was very long), Adelaide (which lasted less than a week), the Northern Beaches area in Sydney (started just before Christmas and ends tonight) and now Brisbane. The advantage of having numbers so low is that there are other tools (mainly contact tracing and testing) that are available to us to prevent having to go into another lockdown.

I think they are particularly nervous about this case because it is the more infectious strain, although so far there are no new cases today. They are going with the “4 reasons to leave the house” approach - exercise, essential shopping, receiving or giving care and work or education if it can’t be done from home. The plan at the moment is for it to end after Monday night so that they can make sure all contacts are identified, tested and isolated.

The border closures, on the other hand, are getting to people, especially as it is summer and school holidays. People have had vacation plans cancelled, have had to rush home and spend hours queuing at borders to then spend 14 days in home quarantine or have got stuck in another state. It makes it very difficult to plan any interstate trips and is especially hard on border communities.

For the most part though, I think people are fine with short, sharp responses rather than allowing things to get out of hand again.

 

[ronandannette]

I don’t really know anyone in Brisbane personally, but they haven’t been in lockdown since the start of May. They even had 100% capacity at theatres and in open air stadiums. In fact, the maximum number of lockdowns any place has gone through is 2: Victoria (which was very long), Adelaide (which lasted less than a week), the Northern Beaches area in Sydney (started just before Christmas and ends tonight) and now Brisbane. The advantage of having numbers so low is that there are other tools (mainly contact tracing and testing) that are available to us to prevent having to go into another lockdown.

I think they are particularly nervous about this case because it is the more infectious strain, although so far there are no new cases today. They are going with the “4 reasons to leave the house” approach - exercise, essential shopping, receiving or giving care and work or education if it can’t be done from home. The plan at the moment is for it to end after Monday night so that they can make sure all contacts are identified, tested and isolated.

The border closures, on the other hand, are getting to people, especially as it is summer and school holidays. People have had vacation plans cancelled, have had to rush home and spend hours queuing at borders to then spend 14 days in home quarantine or have got stuck in another state. It makes it very difficult to plan any interstate trips and is especially hard on border communities.

For the most part though, I think people are fine with short, sharp responses rather than allowing things to get out of hand again.

Thanks for the clarity - that was very informative. Even after all these months it's hard to fully comprehend how different things are being handled in different places. I think we all try to make sense of what we hear through the lenses of our own local experiences. It sure is nice though to feel a little bit of global connection. We all really appreciate your contributions to the thread.

 

[ronandannette]

https://www.disboards.com/threads/i...zation-isolation-stinks.3822467/post-62587677I didn't want to ask in the other thread and take it down a rabbit-hole but would you please tell us if, when you are in Ontario, you comply with the local restrictions? Clearly it would be like living on another planet compared to Florida.

 

[lisaviolet]

Yes, there are data-sets available for many countries that discuss the concept of "excess mortality" since Covid compared to previous years, taking into account the age and condition of the victims. It is a sad but true fact that a certain number of them would have died during the period anyway, given statistical life-expectancy. (THIS IS NOT TO DOWNPLAY THE TRAGEDY OF COVID MORTALITIES - JUST COMMENTING ON THE INFORMATION KARIN HAS PRESENTED.)

the last week of 2020 1700 people died, this is about 40% more than normal. This is about those with chronic illnesses, vulnerable elderly people, in nursing homes and those with several physical or mental disabilities. Within the rest of the Netherlands the death rate is like normal.

Simply jumping off -

But these numbers could be worse than we perceive.

I had already been thinking about how number of deaths from the flu must be down, how could they not be when we have restrictions, a good number of people working from home, and most people are masked up.

And then last week I heard in passing either numbers that get the flu, or deaths - unsure, were down over 90 percent.

Tie that in with about a month ago, before this surge, Alberta reported that there were more deaths from Covid then the last ten years of the flu (I hope I have that 100% correct in wording, my apologies if I don't - it was heard in passing)

People who refuse to understand the severity that this has on our medical system, often quote "Oh but the flu" in their defense.

It really is a numbers puzzle, not meaning to sound without compassion stating in that way, as some will pass away from cancellations of important screenings. Although they have taken many off site here and they truly are trying to push through what they can. But most of those deaths will probably come this year.

But then on the other side we can add those who are immune compromised who might have become seriously ill from simply being out and about or being around those who have active lives, which obviously is not happening to the same degree.

-----------

Karin, I am just simply curious - what was the reasoning of starting a little later for the vaccine. Logistics?

 

[Karin1984]

Karin, I am just simply curious - what was the reasoning of starting a little later for the vaccine. Logistics?

In the end they say it was because they bet on the wrong horse months ago. They thought the Moderna vaccin would be released first. So... That was stupid. When they realized that it was Pfizer that was more complicated due to the cooling system needed, required a whole different strategy.

 

[ronandannette]

Simply jumping off -

But these numbers could be worse than we perceive.

I had already been thinking about how number of deaths from the flu must be down, how could they not be when we have restrictions, a good number of people working from home, and most people are masked up.

And then last week I heard in passing either numbers that get the flu, or deaths - unsure, were down over 90 percent.

And then we tie in that about a month ago, before this surge, Alberta reported that there were more deaths from Covid then the last ten years of the flu (I hope I have that 100% correct in wording, my apologies if I don't - it was heard in passing)

People who refuse to understand the severity that this has on our medical system, often quote "Oh but the flu" in their defense.

It really is a numbers puzzle, not meaning to sound without compassion stating in that way, as some will pass away from cancellations of important screenings. Although they have taken many off site here and they truly are trying to push through what they can. But most of those deaths will probably come this year.

But then on the other side we can add those who are immune compromised who might have become seriously ill from simply being out and about or being around those who have active lives, which obviously is not happening to the same degree.

-----------

Karin, I am just simply curious - what was the reasoning of starting a little later for the vaccine. Logistics?

I do want to clarify that I am not now, nor have I ever equated or even compared Covid with the flu - not once. I'm not sure if you're trying to imply that connection?

None of the data I've seen about "excess mortality" drills down near as far as you are going into what the causes are (or are not), they're simply numbers of deaths (in this case it's deaths per million population) over time. The analysis I most recently saw was done with numbers from EuroMoMo - an agency of the European Centres for Disease Prevention and Control - ECDC. Their website is very interesting if you google it.

According to a news report I heard earlier this week, there has not been one single case of the flu clinically diagnosed in Alberta this winter. I'm not sure how many cases we usually have. Flu shots are very heavily promoted here every year; I always get one and did so this year also, although I haven't had so much as a hangnail since Covid emerged. I did get my first dose of Shingrex vaccine yesterday (all the while wishing it was the Covid jab) and my arm is killing me, but I digress...

ETA: I just remembered I had a raging UTI last April, which is when I got my Covid test. Sorry, not intention to mislead.

 

[ronandannette]

In the end they say it was because they bet on the wrong horse months ago. They thought the Moderna vaccin would be released first. So... That was stupid. When they realized that it was Pfizer that was more complicated due to the cooling system needed, required a whole different strategy.

Canada was in a similar boat, as were many non-producing countries to try and guess the best strategy. We ended up ordering Pfizer first but could only get a limited quantity and did have all the same transport and storage logistics issues as you. Most of what we're injecting now is apparently Moderna as our contract with them finally kicked in and supply began just after Christmas.

 

[Karin1984]

Canada was in a similar boat, as were many non-producing countries to try and guess the best strategy. We ended up ordering Pfizer first but could only get a limited quantity and did have all the same transport and storage logistics issues as you. Most of what we're injecting now is apparently Moderna as our contract with them finally kicked in and supply began just after Christmas.

I read the same, that France was counting on their own developed vaccination. And I read yesterday that in the UK some elderly people are refusing Pfizer and want to wait for the British vaccine.
I understand it and I do not understand this behaviour at the same time

 

[ronandannette]

I read the same, that France was counting on their own developed vaccination. And I read yesterday that in the UK some elderly people are refusing Pfizer and want to wait for the British vaccine.
I understand it and I do not understand this behaviour at the same time

Ah, good old patriotism! Honestly, I'm still pretty dismayed at what became of Canada's vaccine development efforts and sure, I'd love it if there were facilities here churning out doses by the 10,000's by Canadians and for Canadians, but that's not happening. I'll gladly take either Pfizer, Moderna or Oxford when it rolls. Not sure I'd be so quick to accept the Chinese or Russian versions though - the trust level just isn't there.

I'm also taken aback by the apparent numbers of people skeptical of the mRNA vaccine in general. Just the other day there was a lengthy discussion on a national talk radio show with the host trying to explain to callers that this technology in no way messes with one's DNA. {{sigh}} I guess it's too much to ask that tens-of-millions of people from broadly different backgrounds all get rapidly up-to-speed on concepts that are so unfamiliar to most.

 

[SirDuff]

I do want to clarify that I am not now, nor have I ever equated or even compared Covid with the flu - not once. I'm not sure if you're trying to imply that connection?

None of the data I've seen about "excess mortality" drills down near as far as you are going into what the causes are (or are not), they're simply numbers of deaths (in this case it's deaths per million population) over time. The analysis I most recently saw was done with numbers from EuroMoMo - an agency of the European Centres for Disease Prevention and Control - ECDC. Their website is very interesting if you google it.

According to a news report I heard earlier this week, there has not been one single case of the flu clinically diagnosed in Alberta this winter. I'm not sure how many cases we usually have. Flu shots are very heavily promoted here every year; I always get one and did so this year also, although I haven't had so much as a hangnail since Covid emerged. I did get my first dose of Shingrex vaccine yesterday (all the while wishing it was the Covid jab) and my arm is killing me, but I digress...

ETA: I just remembered I had a raging UTI last April, which is when I got my Covid test. Sorry, not intention to mislead.

I don't think that the PP said you had equated COVID with influenza. The point (as I understood it) is that IF (big IF) there are fewer deaths from influenza then the non-COVID deaths are lower than normal. Therefore the excess mortality (not sure why you keep putting in quotes), is actually higher than is being calculated.

Completely making up numbers here:

Expected deaths = 100
Actual deaths = 125
Excess mortality = 25

However, the expected deaths assumed 30 deaths from influenza but, this year, there were only 5 deaths from influenza. Therefore (so goes the argument):

"New expected" deaths = 75 (100 - the 25 influenza deaths that didn't happen)
Actual deaths = 125
Excess mortality = 50

I actually don't think that you can/should really do this (and I work with people at EUROMoMo) because the whole point of excess mortality is that you don't try to assign cause-of-death.

It isn't appropriate to think that excess deaths and COVID deaths are synonymous. In many of the countries where I work (mainly low-income or lower-middle-income), maintaining essential health services is a massive struggle. In areas with Ebola outbreaks, deaths due to the lack of EHS far outnumbered Ebola deaths. That's likely to be the case again (though the epidemiology of the two diseases is different). In the broadest sense, one could argue still COVID related (but that wouldn't be given as the cause-of-death). Things are far too entangled to do more than just look at/count the excess deaths.

 

[ronandannette]

I don't think that the PP said you had equated COVID with influenza. The point (as I understood it) is that IF (big IF) there are fewer deaths from influenza then the non-COVID deaths are lower than normal. Therefore the excess mortality (not sure why you keep putting in quotes), is actually higher than is being calculated.

Completely making up numbers here:

Expected deaths = 100
Actual deaths = 125
Excess mortality = 25

However, the expected deaths assumed 30 deaths from influenza but, this year, there were only 5 deaths from influenza. Therefore (so goes the argument):

"New expected" deaths = 75 (100 - the 25 influenza deaths that didn't happen)
Actual deaths = 125
Excess mortality = 50

I actually don't think that you can/should really do this (and I work with people at EUROMoMo) because the whole point of excess mortality is that you don't try to assign cause-of-death.

It isn't appropriate to think that excess deaths and COVID deaths are synonymous. In many of the countries where I work (mainly low-income or lower-middle-income), maintaining essential health services is a massive struggle. In areas with Ebola outbreaks, deaths due to the lack of EHS far outnumbered Ebola deaths. That's likely to be the case again (though the epidemiology of the two diseases is different). In the broadest sense, one could argue still COVID related (but that wouldn't be given as the cause-of-death). Things are far too entangled to do more than just look at/count the excess deaths.

Thank you very much for this fine information. I'm purely a layman and I agree you can't extrapolate the effects of Covid directly from the expected/actual mortality rates but then again, none of the graphs I've looked at suggest such a thing.

I'm trying to be sensitive and find a way to dialogue about this (which I find very interesting) that doesn't stir up trouble. Earlier attempts have met with a polarized reaction and I really don't want that for this thread. I love a robust discussion and I love to learn, which requires taking in new information, sometimes that which does not slide nicely into my confirmation bias, KWIM? Although really, after all these months I don't have much of (lets call it) a personal Covid ideology - I'm just out here trying to get through it.

 

[elphaba91]

Canada was in a similar boat, as were many non-producing countries to try and guess the best strategy. We ended up ordering Pfizer first but could only get a limited quantity and did have all the same transport and storage logistics issues as you. Most of what we're injecting now is apparently Moderna as our contract with them finally kicked in and supply began just after Christmas.

In Australia we decided not to put all our eggs in one basket and initially had contracts for 4 different vaccines - Pfizer (although we couldn’t get as much), Oxford/AZ, Novavax and UQ/CSL. Unfortunately the UQ/CSL one didn’t work out (it’s apparently a very safe, effective vaccine, but it causes people to test positive to HIV tests). Because of our low numbers we haven’t given any vaccines emergency approval and they will all go through the full approval process like any other vaccine, so we will start vaccinating late February/early March.

 

[lisaviolet]

I do want to clarify that I am not now, nor have I ever equated or even compared Covid with the flu - not once. I'm not sure if you're trying to imply that connection?

I am lost Annette. You never even came to my head at all.

I wasn't insinuating anything about you. I am very upfront Annette, I would simply debate a point with you directly as usual, if I had a thought to debate. Veiled comments are simply not my forte.

EDIT: Everyone can read SirDuff's succinct Coles' Notes on the issue, instead of my re-rambling.

Was simply jumping off both of your posts, with even more of a discussion - that I find interesting. We are changing the breakdown of deaths by our isolation and mask wearing. And straightforward comparisons are virtually impossible.

 

[lisaviolet]

In the end they say it was because they bet on the wrong horse months ago. They thought the Moderna vaccine would be released first. So... That was stupid. When they realized that it was Pfizer that was more complicated due to the cooling system needed, required a whole different strategy.

Hope it is smooth sailing going forward.

It is like Las Vegas for these leaders and their decisons. Here people had us on the short end of the stick, general us - not you Annette - laughing, thinking Trudeau's choices were going to be royally ****ed. But he - and we - lucked out so far.

Couldn't pay me enough to make these decisions.

......was a lengthy discussion on a national talk radio show with the host trying to explain to callers that this technology in no way messes with one's DNA. {{sigh}}

It will be interesting to see what people decide further down the list.

I have to say I do find it interesting, not sure what word to use, that some that did not deem the virus all that serious are scheduling their vaccine. I am happy that they are, but it is _________. Honestly can't find an appropriate word, maybe the word is headache-inducing Smiling.

I don't think that the PP said you had equated COVID with influenza. The point (as I understood it) is that IF (big IF) there are fewer deaths from influenza then the non-COVID deaths are lower than normal. Therefore the excess mortality (not sure why you keep putting in quotes), is actually higher than is being calculated.

Thank you SirDuff. Yes. Hallelujah. Thank God for succinct writers!

It is either Canada or the States where deaths from the flu are down over 90%. I am just too lazy to go look what brand of news I was barely listening to last week.

And yes I was trying to say that there are so many entangled issues, with the numbers released. And then they are often erroneously used to support an argument.

 

[lisaviolet]

Completely making up numbers here:

Expected deaths = 100
Actual deaths = 125
Excess mortality = 25

However, the expected deaths assumed 30 deaths from influenza but, this year, there were only 5 deaths from influenza. Therefore (so goes the argument):

"New expected" deaths = 75 (100 - the 25 influenza deaths that didn't happen)
Actual deaths = 125
Excess mortality = 50

I actually don't think that you can/should really do this (and I work with people at EUROMoMo) because the whole point of excess mortality is that you don't try to assign cause-of-death.

It isn't appropriate to think that excess deaths and COVID deaths are synonymous. In many of the countries where I work (mainly low-income or lower-middle-income), maintaining essential health services is a massive struggle. In areas with Ebola outbreaks, deaths due to the lack of EHS far outnumbered Ebola deaths. That's likely to be the case again (though the epidemiology of the two diseases is different). In the broadest sense, one could argue still COVID related (but that wouldn't be given as the cause-of-death). Things are far too entangled to do more than just look at/count the excess deaths.

Interesting read, thank you. Your work must be so fascinating.

Do you enjoy it SirDuff?