Could DW Parks be Expanded?

[LeeAndRobin]

It's a theory...

They are at least 10 years overdue on new trains...

The Mark IVs were in service 20 years, from 71 to 91. The Mark VIs started coming into service in 89 and were fully in service by 91. Let's say the average age of the "new" monorails dates from 1990. 20 years would put us at 2010, so they are more like 5 years "overdue" according to your reasoning. But that assumes that the durability of the Bombardier-built units is the same as the previous Martin Marietta built units. It's not inconceivable that lessons learned on the first system at WDW were used to make durability improvements on the second generation at WDW.

and that is showing a disinclination to invest in the monorail system...that should be a no brainer.

Except for the inconvenient fact that Disney *is* now investing in the system, as noted above.

But other than that - the monorail isn't that useful...if you're honest.

I'll admit that the Epcot loop is probably not all that useful. However, if Disney does close the entire system down, how would you propose getting all those guests from the TTC to the MK? Back and forth from the Poly and GF? I see only two real options, neither of which would be as efficient as the monorail system:

1) Buses: You'd need 6 buses to equal one monorail. Actually probably 2-3 times that number, because the monorails are faster than buses would be. So you're talking a slower time between the TTC and MK, and 2-3 times the labor cost. Plus the extra maintenance costs for the extra rolling stock.

2) Ferrys: It seems unlikely Disney could expand the ferry system enough to handle the extra capacity. It's also slower. Even though the ferrys carry more people, they have a larger crew. Since there would have to be more of them if the monorail system were shut down, the same negative arguments about increased labor and maintenance costs would apply. Likewise, the boat system to the resorts would have to expand with larger boats and more of them.

I don't see the monorail going away anytime soon.

 

[Reddog1134]

why would they not just close it down vs. spending the money upgrading something that, according to you, they are planning on closing down soon anyway?

100% Excellent post. Especially on how illogical it is for Disney to be investing millions in a product that would be soon killed off.

I'm not saying they are closing the monorails, but there is a problem with this argument. Disney put the Backlot Tour through a 2 month refurbishment and then closed it 6 months later.

Just because they are spending money on it, doesn't mean it's "safe".

 

[umichigan10]

I don't necessarily disagree with the above posters logic. But how much did they honestly spend on the backlot tour? Comparing that to the monorail (don't have figures in front of me so I'm just estimating off the seat of my pants) it seems like they're pouring much more money into the monorail than with BLT. But honestly for all I know I could say this and they could close the system tomorrow

 

[Reddog1134]

I don't necessarily disagree with the above posters logic. But how much did they honestly spend on the backlot tour? Comparing that to the monorail (don't have figures in front of me so I'm just estimating off the seat of my pants) it seems like they're pouring much more money into the monorail than with BLT. But honestly for all I know I could say this and they could close the system tomorrow

I have no idea how much they spent on BLT, but 2 months is a fairly sizable refurbishment. We're not talking a day or two for general cleaning. (But then again, it's not a 6 month major redo either)

 

[sachilles]

I've seen mentioned previously here, some of the land owned is not suitable for building due to sink hole concerns. That could very well factor it into the 1/3rd conservation number, and be marketing spin. Just something to think about as you look at WDW from google earth. Just because the space is open, doesn't mean it is build-able.
While there was a time they may not have been great with forward planning, I think now they've got completely to the other side. I think they are very cautious, almost too cautious trying to make sure everything is in the perfect spot. I think the speedway transportation project once underway may be very telling as to what is in store in the next decade or so.
I think DHS has a lot of space that has the potential for sweeping redesigns, and my guess is that is the plan. However accountants and dreamers are often at odds, so they will likely meet somewhere in the middle.
A truly north entrance to MK strikes me as an odd choice given the park was designed to wow the guest coming in to the south, but perhaps the time has come where you just can't funnel that many people through that area. Then again, maybe the south will be reserved for resort guests, and the North for the riff raff that drives in(in case there is any doubt, that was said tongue in cheek).

 

[umichigan10]

I have no idea how much they spent on BLT, but 2 months is a fairly sizable refurbishment. We're not talking a day or two for general cleaning. (But then again, it's not a 6 month major redo either)

Oh I agree, that's why I'm not completely discounting what you said. But on the flip side the monorail improvements have been going on for a while now. However the elephant in the room is they are putting lipstick on a pig with these trains with all these improvements as they clearly are on their last legs no matter who or what is driving them

 

[rteetz]

I'm not saying they are closing the monorails, but there is a problem with this argument. Disney put the Backlot Tour through a 2 month refurbishment and then closed it 6 months later.

Just because they are spending money on it, doesn't mean it's "safe".

Yes exactly they spent millions on new trans and now they are in a dump.

 

[DanBoris]

I still suspect WDWmagic may be off the mark on this one. It seemed to be based off of an idea and not on any contacts.

There are plans to extend Floridian way back to Reams Road, so this will technically create a new entrance on the north side, the question is will it be a new public entrance or not.

 

[DanBoris]

I've seen mentioned previously here, some of the land owned is not suitable for building due to sink hole concerns. That could very well factor it into the 1/3rd conservation number, and be marketing spin. Just something to think about as you look at WDW from google earth. Just because the space is open, doesn't mean it is build-able.
While there was a time they may not have been great with forward planning, I think now they've got completely to the other side. I think they are very cautious, almost too cautious trying to make sure everything is in the perfect spot. I think the speedway transportation project once underway may be very telling as to what is in store in the next decade or so.
I think DHS has a lot of space that has the potential for sweeping redesigns, and my guess is that is the plan. However accountants and dreamers are often at odds, so they will likely meet somewhere in the middle.
A truly north entrance to MK strikes me as an odd choice given the park was designed to wow the guest coming in to the south, but perhaps the time has come where you just can't funnel that many people through that area. Then again, maybe the south will be reserved for resort guests, and the North for the riff raff that drives in(in case there is any doubt, that was said tongue in cheek).

Here is the map that shows the suitability of land for construction. Grey is already developed land, red is considered suitable, light green is marginally suitable and dark green is unsuitable. They could build on the marginally and unsuitable land if they really wanted to, but they are going to favor the suitable areas.

 

[DDLand]

There are plans to extend Floridian way back to Reams Road, so this will technically create a new entrance on the north side, the question is will it be a new public entrance or not.

Precisely. I think my theory of WDWmagic crossing this plan (already has required construction approval) with the RPDE making way and turning them into one project makes sense.

 

[sachilles]

Interesting map, thank you. I think I remember a discussion from when I frequented this site before my last trip in 2013, that the area between poly and CR was deemed unsuitable as they couldn't get pilings to set. This map would indicate that isn't accurate. Seems to me that land would be begging for something if the transportation center wasn't there. Given the race track closing, associated transportation project, older monorails.....I'm reaching, but man the transportation center should be on the chopping block.
Seems like you could change the Epcot rail with high but relatively acceptable cost, to intersect with the MK line, add parking to the west of the normal entrance of MK(allowing a walking connection, and bring the northern traffic and perhaps more to that area. Allowing you to reduce the lot near the track. Then re-develop the TTC area for a new deluxe level/DVC property. Thus reducing the dependence on the ferry and monorail to get non resort people into the park.
Rather than become so damn dependent on the monorail to get everybody in, you can in theory reduce it's use, make it that much more exclusive for Deluxes.

Total wish casting, sorry.

 

[LeeAndRobin]

Rather than become so damn dependent on the monorail to get everybody in, you can in theory reduce it's use, make it that much more exclusive for Deluxes.

Reducing the monorail's use in this manner would cost far, far more than just refurbing or even replacing all the trains. Far more.

 

[DDLand]

Interesting map, thank you. I think I remember a discussion from when I frequented this site before my last trip in 2013, that the area between poly and CR was deemed unsuitable as they couldn't get pilings to set. This map would indicate that isn't accurate. Seems to me that land would be begging for something if the transportation center wasn't there. Given the race track closing, associated transportation project, older monorails.....I'm reaching, but man the transportation center should be on the chopping block.
Seems like you could change the Epcot rail with high but relatively acceptable cost, to intersect with the MK line, add parking to the west of the normal entrance of MK(allowing a walking connection, and bring the northern traffic and perhaps more to that area. Allowing you to reduce the lot near the track. Then re-develop the TTC area for a new deluxe level/DVC property. Thus reducing the dependence on the ferry and monorail to get non resort people into the park.
Rather than become so damn dependent on the monorail to get everybody in, you can in theory reduce it's use, make it that much more exclusive for Deluxes.

Total wish casting, sorry.

You're exactly right about the site location. I'd seen that RCID map before and had never connected the dots. Apparently those sites are now open for Disney at anytime for construction. That's a pretty big deal that had gone unnoticed!

Disney's strategy has more or less been don't mess with something if it isn't broke. Spending millions on a TTC project that would create large expenditures and big headaches doesn't make sense. The only thing that makes me doubt that is Tikiman has said there was more coming... TTC could be in more danger then I thought.

If they continue to build new units around Seven Seas Lagoon I see them maybe limiting access to Resort Guests for the Resort line during peek times. It would've never been possible before, but thanks to My Magic that could definitely come to pass.

 

[wallrock]

The Mark IVs were in service 20 years, from 71 to 91. The Mark VIs started coming into service in 89 and were fully in service by 91. Let's say the average age of the "new" monorails dates from 1990. 20 years would put us at 2010, so they are more like 5 years "overdue" according to your reasoning. But that assumes that the durability of the Bombardier-built units is the same as the previous Martin Marietta built units. It's not inconceivable that lessons learned on the first system at WDW were used to make durability improvements on the second generation at WDW.



Except for the inconvenient fact that Disney *is* now investing in the system, as noted above.



I'll admit that the Epcot loop is probably not all that useful. However, if Disney does close the entire system down, how would you propose getting all those guests from the TTC to the MK? Back and forth from the Poly and GF? I see only two real options, neither of which would be as efficient as the monorail system:

1) Buses: You'd need 6 buses to equal one monorail. Actually probably 2-3 times that number, because the monorails are faster than buses would be. So you're talking a slower time between the TTC and MK, and 2-3 times the labor cost. Plus the extra maintenance costs for the extra rolling stock.

2) Ferrys: It seems unlikely Disney could expand the ferry system enough to handle the extra capacity. It's also slower. Even though the ferrys carry more people, they have a larger crew. Since there would have to be more of them if the monorail system were shut down, the same negative arguments about increased labor and maintenance costs would apply. Likewise, the boat system to the resorts would have to expand with larger boats and more of them.

I don't see the monorail going away anytime soon.

There are a few things that can be seen that can point to the eventual closing of the monorail theory (a theory I happen to agree with), and it ultimately boils down to the greenbacks.

Higher capacity boats have been put in during monorail 'down times' to handle the passenger capacity between the resorts and the Magic Kingdom. Like it or not those boats are far less expensive to manage than the monorail and don't think for a minute that the powers that be haven't paid attention to any capacity issues that could arise. I certainly don't monitor the daily comings and goings of the boats but I have yet to hear any serious huffing and puffing when the monorails are unavailable. As long as John Q Family can get back to their resort they're not going to complain.

Getting guests from the TTC to the Magic Kingdom is already addressed with the large ferrys that traverse the Seven Seas Lagoon. Your wait may not be optimal from a personal experience if the monorail were to go away, but Disney won't concern themselves with an extra five or ten minutes if it saves them a big chunk of change.

Buses are less expensive to manage than the monorail so you can't have a one to one comparison on the labor cost. This debate has been hashed and re-hashed multiple times throughout the years. Peak crowd movement? Just put more buses on the routes. Low crowd time periods? Take the buses off the route. This type of manipulation isn't possible with the monorails. Also keep in mind that Disney recently introduced a bus route between the three Magic Kingdom resorts, and as I mentioned above don't think for a minute that the accountants aren't considering that as a viable transportation alternative from the Polynesian to the Contemporary for a Chef Mickey's experience.

The time between retrofits has already been mentioned, and twenty-five years is a long time for a mechanical device that runs 365 days a year. If Disney wanted to replace them they would have done so by now. I don't think the plan is in the cards.

Regarding the recent upgrades for automation, I personally don't think that Disney did it as a foundation for some future large-scale upgrade, or even replacement, of the existing trains. I'm sure someone can do the digging to confirm, but I would be interested in seeing just how much Disney's liability insurance went down when the automation went in. When you remove the human element your insurance costs go down.

Lastly any iconic-type status that fans give something has never been a reason for Disney to keep something around. There are devotees to the monorail, and I admit that I'm one of them, but more and more the monorail is seen as an attraction rather than a viable transportation tool, and Disney has shown it has no issue with shutting down an attraction if they so choose. If the monorail dumped guests into a gift shop after the 'ride' was done it might be different, but this ain't Pirates of the Caribbean.

 

[HizMinnie2015]

I was told specifically from a disney employee... that they were working on opening an entrance gate on the north side... as its all just rumors take it for heat you will

 

[rteetz]

There are a few things that can be seen that can point to the eventual closing of the monorail theory (a theory I happen to agree with), and it ultimately boils down to the greenbacks.

Higher capacity boats have been put in during monorail 'down times' to handle the passenger capacity between the resorts and the Magic Kingdom. Like it or not those boats are far less expensive to manage than the monorail and don't think for a minute that the powers that be haven't paid attention to any capacity issues that could arise. I certainly don't monitor the daily comings and goings of the boats but I have yet to hear any serious huffing and puffing when the monorails are unavailable. As long as John Q Family can get back to their resort they're not going to complain.

Getting guests from the TTC to the Magic Kingdom is already addressed with the large ferrys that traverse the Seven Seas Lagoon. Your wait may not be optimal from a personal experience if the monorail were to go away, but Disney won't concern themselves with an extra five or ten minutes if it saves them a big chunk of change.

Buses are less expensive to manage than the monorail so you can't have a one to one comparison on the labor cost. This debate has been hashed and re-hashed multiple times throughout the years. Peak crowd movement? Just put more buses on the routes. Low crowd time periods? Take the buses off the route. This type of manipulation isn't possible with the monorails. Also keep in mind that Disney recently introduced a bus route between the three Magic Kingdom resorts, and as I mentioned above don't think for a minute that the accountants aren't considering that as a viable transportation alternative from the Polynesian to the Contemporary for a Chef Mickey's experience.

The time between retrofits has already been mentioned, and twenty-five years is a long time for a mechanical device that runs 365 days a year. If Disney wanted to replace them they would have done so by now. I don't think the plan is in the cards.

Regarding the recent upgrades for automation, I personally don't think that Disney did it as a foundation for some future large-scale upgrade, or even replacement, of the existing trains. I'm sure someone can do the digging to confirm, but I would be interested in seeing just how much Disney's liability insurance went down when the automation went in. When you remove the human element your insurance costs go down.

Lastly any iconic-type status that fans give something has never been a reason for Disney to keep something around. There are devotees to the monorail, and I admit that I'm one of them, but more and more the monorail is seen as an attraction rather than a viable transportation tool, and Disney has shown it has no issue with shutting down an attraction if they so choose. If the monorail dumped guests into a gift shop after the 'ride' was done it might be different, but this ain't Pirates of the Caribbean.

I agree. Buses and boats are much cheaper. Since December all of the monorails are available for service for like the first time in a very long time. I would think ever since the crash Disney been looking to do an automation element because of that insurance element. I do however think there would be some outrage of the monorails do ever go. I also think they will run these monorails they have currently until they can't run them anymore.

 

[DDLand]

There are a few things that can be seen that can point to the eventual closing of the monorail theory (a theory I happen to agree with), and it ultimately boils down to the greenbacks.

Higher capacity boats have been put in during monorail 'down times' to handle the passenger capacity between the resorts and the Magic Kingdom. Like it or not those boats are far less expensive to manage than the monorail and don't think for a minute that the powers that be haven't paid attention to any capacity issues that could arise. I certainly don't monitor the daily comings and goings of the boats but I have yet to hear any serious huffing and puffing when the monorails are unavailable. As long as John Q Family can get back to their resort they're not going to complain.

Getting guests from the TTC to the Magic Kingdom is already addressed with the large ferrys that traverse the Seven Seas Lagoon. Your wait may not be optimal from a personal experience if the monorail were to go away, but Disney won't concern themselves with an extra five or ten minutes if it saves them a big chunk of change.

Buses are less expensive to manage than the monorail so you can't have a one to one comparison on the labor cost. This debate has been hashed and re-hashed multiple times throughout the years. Peak crowd movement? Just put more buses on the routes. Low crowd time periods? Take the buses off the route. This type of manipulation isn't possible with the monorails. Also keep in mind that Disney recently introduced a bus route between the three Magic Kingdom resorts, and as I mentioned above don't think for a minute that the accountants aren't considering that as a viable transportation alternative from the Polynesian to the Contemporary for a Chef Mickey's experience.

The time between retrofits has already been mentioned, and twenty-five years is a long time for a mechanical device that runs 365 days a year. If Disney wanted to replace them they would have done so by now. I don't think the plan is in the cards.

Regarding the recent upgrades for automation, I personally don't think that Disney did it as a foundation for some future large-scale upgrade, or even replacement, of the existing trains. I'm sure someone can do the digging to confirm, but I would be interested in seeing just how much Disney's liability insurance went down when the automation went in. When you remove the human element your insurance costs go down.

Lastly any iconic-type status that fans give something has never been a reason for Disney to keep something around. There are devotees to the monorail, and I admit that I'm one of them, but more and more the monorail is seen as an attraction rather than a viable transportation tool, and Disney has shown it has no issue with shutting down an attraction if they so choose. If the monorail dumped guests into a gift shop after the 'ride' was done it might be different, but this ain't Pirates of the Caribbean.

The boats and monorails working together in conjunction are most effective. You may have never experienced what it's like when a monorail goes down, but it's not pretty. It's a pain, and it slows everything down. As the other poster @LeeAndRobin (100% on all your posts) has said, expanding capacity enough to appropriately handle additonal boat traffic would be impractical and costly. Which means that they'd have to use buses for guest transfer (I'll get to that) Keeping the existing system working is more cost effective and more green. It also keeps with their futuristic and cool image.

Why not? Disney commonly adjusts the number of monorails based on expected attendance. I'm not sure 6 buses that will have to be replaced after a fraction of the service as monorails are really much more cost effective. One purchase for a long term investment that does take upkeep, but is energy efficient and speedy. Compare that to the average lifespan of a commuter bus of 12 years. In the same time period to cover the same job Disney would have had to acquire 12+ buses. Really? I see Disney continuing to use this system for the time being. Remember the trains are also not useless after being decomissioned. The same chassis can be used again. Look to Disneyland that has been using monorail components from the 1960's.

Of course there's also the added issue of buses being incredibly clunky experience. Imagine this process. Drive to parking lot, get on a tram, then get on a bus. Sound bad? I think so.

Increased bus options for those hotels is good, but not a replacement. People stay at those hotels partially for the monorails. 600$ a night is not a cheap hotel, and Disney likes those prices.

Insurance costs are a good reason, but it requires time to bear the fruits. Disney wants the return on investment. Longterm.

Disney has canned attractions, but never an active E-Ticket. The monorail is just that. It would not only be expensive but also destroy goodwill. A bad proposition when people are supposed to be making memories.

The monorail isn't going anywhere.

 

[rteetz]

The boats and monorails working together in conjunction are most effective. You may have never experienced what it's like when a monorail goes down, but it's not pretty. It's a pain, and it slows everything down. As the other poster @LeeAndRobin (100% on all your posts) has said, expanding capacity enough to appropriately handle additonal boat traffic would be impractical and costly. Which means that they'd have to use buses for guest transfer (I'll get to that) Keeping the existing system working is more cost effective and more green. It also keeps with their futuristic and cool image.

Why not? Disney commonly adjusts the number of monorails based on expected attendance. I'm not sure 6 buses that will have to be replaced after a fraction of the service as monorails are really much more cost effective. One purchase for a long term investment that does take upkeep, but is energy efficient and speedy. Compare that to the average lifespan of a commuter bus of 12 years. In the same time period to cover the same job Disney would have had to acquire 12+ buses. Really? I see Disney continuing to use this system for the time being. Remember the trains are also not useless after being decomissioned. The same chassis can be used again. Look to Disneyland that has been using monorail components from the 1960's.

Of course there's also the added issue of buses being incredibly clunky experience. Imagine this process. Drive to parking lot, get on a tram, then get on a bus. Sound bad? I think so.

Increased bus options for those hotels is good, but not a replacement. People stay at those hotels partially for the monorails. 600$ a night is not a cheap hotel, and Disney likes those prices.

Insurance costs are a good reason, but it requires time to bear the fruits. Disney wants the return on investment. Longterm.

Disney has canned attractions, but never an active E-Ticket. The monorail is just that. It would not only be expensive but also destroy goodwill. A bad proposition when people are supposed to be making memories.

The monorail isn't going anywhere.

I think some would argue horizons was an active e ticket that they destroyed I wouldn't know tho because I never got to experience it. Many are very bitter and miss that attraction greatly.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I didn't intentionally throw the match on the brush with the monorail thesis…

but i have to say its funny to not pay attention for a day and then read through it.

I would also like to point out that most of the detractors from my little "theory" have actually proceeded to put tidbits into the discussion that support the theory…

gee…would an entirely new parking lot behind the magic kingdom that is "light transport" (i.e. trams) away and a demolition of the ttc and parking lot….possibly…maybe…make the monorail redundant?

maybe…you think?

why would they do that?
two parking lots would be too confusing to the confused already…you know how many people mistakenly wander out of the international gateway at EPCOT? and there isn't even a parking lot there…
Second…what would more space around the lagoon…without the ttc…perhaps…open up ground for? hmmm…some type of real estate endeavor…perhaps…hmmm…

And then what would become of bay lake/seven seas/the old area? I mean…disney would hate it if all of a sudden there were 4,000 "exclusive access" dvc rooms there…with their own private rec and tropical paradise area. That wouldn't sell at all. Those polynesian bungalows would hate it if all they saw was the precious and the occasional light watercraft...

you see? theres not a fire behind the smoke…but the conditions are right that if lightning were to strike…it would develop into a bonfire.

 

[DDLand]

I didn't intentionally throw the match on the brush with the monorail thesis…

but i have to say its funny to not pay attention for a day and then read through it.

I would also like to point out that most of the detractors from my little "theory" have actually proceeded to put tidbits into the discussion that support the theory…

gee…would an entirely new parking lot behind the magic kingdom that is "light transport" (i.e. trams) away and a demolition of the ttc and parking lot….possibly…maybe…make the monorail redundant?

maybe…you think?

why would they do that?
two parking lots would be too confusing to the confused already…you know how many people mistakenly wander out of the international gateway at EPCOT? and there isn't even a parking lot there…
Second…what would more space around the lagoon…without the ttc…perhaps…open up ground for? hmmm…some type of real estate endeavor…perhaps…hmmm…

And then what would become of bay lake/seven seas/the old area? I mean…disney would hate it if all of a sudden there were 4,000 "exclusive access" dvc rooms there…with their own private rec and tropical paradise area. That wouldn't sell at all. Those polynesian bungalows would hate it if all they saw was the precious and the occasional light watercraft...

you see? theres not a fire behind the smoke…but the conditions are right that if lightning were to strike…it would develop into a bonfire.

I like your tram idea better then the the bus one. Makes much more sense. With that said, a parking lot behind MK is nearly impossible. This is because the space is constrained, many cast member operations go on back there, and it's not show ready. I think that if there are any cast members on here they can attest to level of complexity of what goes on back there. Couple that with the RCID map that shows most of the remaining property up there is unsuitable for development. There are some serious red flags.

They could put it off to the West Side of MK, but I'm not sure how the Grand Floridian guests would appreciate the parking lot view. It would also increase traffic and strain on infrastructure. Floridian Way would need to be upgraded to a four lane highway to work. Even better views for those rooms. Lol Plus let us not forget how Disneyland handles their massive crowd influx on the tram each day. It take a lot of space for the boarding and offload. There's almost no space on the west side of the MK gate. This could be addressed by knocking down the Monorail Station. It could work technically. Just a risky proposition, and expensive all around.

If you disable the monorail I'd argue it hurts the value of all the Resorts along the loop. Why is the old parking lot that would be right by the upgraded Floridian Highway a better spot for housing with a Resort in the way? They'd still have to take buses, and I'm sure somewhere else on property would be quieter.

All I know is Tikiman has said there's more coming to Poly. Your concept is intriguing but damaged goods without monorail.

The conditions are right, but the lightening bolt will cost them several hundred million dollars.