Copper Creeks Resale down the road

[sky2823]

After the dusts settles and DVD has moved on promoting the next resorts and CCV is sold out, where will the resale value of copper creek shake-out? (In today’s dollars and relative to other resorts like Poly etc...)

I’m an owner so I’m just curious what the boards thinks...

$150 to $160?

Does Disney raise the price once it sells out to $220 like VGF and Poly or is CCV viewed lower since not on the monorail.

It seems to be selling briskly, is one of the smaller resorts and is in high demand for Xmas. However, it is not on monorail and only 4 in studio/1bedroom obviously brings it down....

Apologies if this has been discussed

 

[aoconnor]

I kind of doubt they'll raise the price to $220 like VGF and Poly- those are two especially popular resorts and special circumstances IMO. I think the $150 range +/-$10 sounds right.

 

[Ben E N]

Considering that BLT is only at $195, I see CCV only being priced around there. It is 7 years longer contract, but is not directly on the loop.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think a bunch of people will try to dump points when they realize they cannot get December studios consistently at 11 months. That may impact pricing, or ROFR.

 

[mustinjourney]

I would guess it’s resale price will be in line with, or $5-$10 less than, BLT/PVB.

 

[Jerry5788]

There was a resale recently for $130/$135 - seller paying closing

But at end of day who knows limited inventory out there at the moment

 

[Ben E N]

There was a resale recently for $130/$135 - seller paying closing

But at end of day who knows limited inventory out there at the moment

Geez. I almost bet that gets ROFR'd. That poor seller is taking a beating either way.

 

[deerh]

As a recent owner of CCV, I think the price will be around $180-185/point eventually... And go up from there in 5-10 years... The way
DVC is selling now, doubt it will go down for the foreseeable future... Just my .02 cents!

 

[The Jackal]

Geez. I almost bet that gets ROFR'd. That poor seller is taking a beating either way.

It passed. Someone on this forum bought it.

Timmy-4boyfam---$135-$24975-185-CCV@WL-Dec-0/16, 0/17, 18/18, 185/19-Seller pays CC- sent 7/2, passed 7/18

 

[Cyberc1978]

IMO the price will be similar to BRV($171) + maybe $5-15 because of the extra years on the contract. OTOH the higher MF at CCV compared to BRV talks for a lower prices, so maybe the prices will just be around equal.

 

[Jerry5788]

Geez. I almost bet that gets ROFR'd. That poor seller is taking a beating either way.

Not really if you bought on day one with incentives given the size I think you would have paid mid $150s. It was a December contract so likely came with previous year points as well and this one did not have many 2018 points

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I think a bunch of people will try to dump points when they realize they cannot get December studios consistently at 11 months. That may impact pricing, or ROFR.

As a BRV owner, I am glad I don’t have to compete with fixed weeks when booking. BUT it is getting fierce at 11 months and still may need to walk a December reservation.

 

[BillPA]

When the next recession comes, and it will very soon, prices will drop 25% or more. Any one remember 2008-9...

 

[kniquy]

and it will very soon,

What indicators are you seeing? Sorry for asking but I am certainly not up and up on the current financial status of the US. Just in looking at real estate in my area I am seeing homes sell for more than they did a couple years ago and banks still giving out loans with little to no down payment -- always a dicey situation.

 

[BillPA]

The banks are giving home loans at more than book value, like what caused the 2008 crash, the government is removing protections that were put in place after the crash to keep it from happening again, the tariff wars... add these to the 8-9 year run up and a crash is not far away. JMHO

 

[Bing Showei]

The banks are giving home loans at more than book value, like what caused the 2008 crash, the government is removing protections that were put in place after the crash to keep it from happening again, the tariff wars... add these to the 8-9 year run up and a crash is not far away. JMHO

On top of this, corporate tax cuts are being spent by companies on share buybacks. Not only does this further support market prices for equities that are currently overvalued, but additionally, it increases the compensation to executives who are paid with company shares.

And while companies are buying at these “bargain prices” at the front door, out back, those same executives are offloading their holdings.

At some point, people are going to wake up and realize that these prices are insane and the fire sale will begin, but by then those who profited most from the equities drive up will have gotten out, and by the time Main Street sees what Wall Street has known, and has been complicit to, a lot of people who kept their noses to the grindstone will look up to see it has happened to them all over again.

Rinse. Repeat.

 

[ziravan]

If we’re going to speculate about economics,

The recovery was slow rolled for years between 2009-2015. 2% growth is barely a recovery. That created pent up demand.

A better recovery (seeing is believing), better regulatory and taxing environment means companies are starting to “unpent” their demands and start spending.

It’s the same reason WDW attendance is through the roof. Until the pent up demand is satiated, dollars will keep being spent.

My point is that I don’t think you can measure what’s going on economically by time passed since 2008. It’s not linear like that. This is why I was able to still get a great deal on BCV in 2014.

This isn’t meant to be political. Some of the underlying causes are political, some aren’t. If demand is pent up for long enough, it just needs an excuse to unwind, regardless the political environment.

How long will it last? I think that’s less political per se and more a function of satiating the demand. If you look at WDW, there’s quite a bit of pent up demand being excercised at the moment. I think that’s a decent parallel for the economy at large.

As for WDW, Galaxy's Edge is going to keep that demand topped up leading into the 50th stuff being offered. I wouldn’t depend on a recession to change things for the foreseeable future.

Chinese proverb. “The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second best time is now.”

 

[Mumof4mice]

It's inevitable that economies will cycle and recessions will occur. The only uncertainty is when.

DVC is a discretionary luxury. As long as we enjoy our purchases (and even get the satisfaction of having spent our luxury budget cleverly), it's served its purpose. If there's a drop in resale value in the next few years? Well, we could have bought cars or cash hotel rooms and kissed the money goodbye for good instead of purchasing DVC.

Those Great Recession prices sound tempting and I daydream about having picked up a couple of thousand points. But the reality is, recession is the best time to buy real assets. Here in Australia, developers and funds dumped their property portfolio at ridiculous losses. And Australia is supposed to have had a milder, attenuated recession compared to the U.S. With bargains everywhere DH and I went into ultra-saving/investment mode. Even if I knew about DVC back then, we wouldn't have had any spare resources to buy any. We plan to do the same the next time there is a down turn. So now is the time to go to WDW!

 

[1911]

I see a listing for 200 points @ 145 per right now

 

[deerh]

As for CCV resale, I would say $180-190 in the next few years... Or MORE! Stop and think-- Economy humming along, My house has
gone up a LOT in 3 years! Also-- Rivera will come online and be $199-210/point.... OR MORE! Then--- The River Country DVC (If it is
indeed a DVC resort) will be $220/point... GFV is already $220/point?? Poly is $191/point..

And... Star Wars Land, Ratoutolle Ride, Guardians ride, will only infuse the WDW frenzy..

So, bottom line, I don't see it slowing down at all for 3-4 or more years.. Just my .02 cents worth.........