Copper Creek Resale Contact

[AmandaIola]

We are looking to purchase between 250 and 300 points at Copper Creek, what kind of price per point would pass ROFR?

 

[KVacc]

You can check out the older ROFR threads to see what has been taken and passed in the past but its really a crap shoot it seems. One day a contract can pass and then next day the same PPP for the same resort will be taken. Its all voodoo.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Can also check the dvcresalemarket ROFR reports. This is the latest one and it shows a highest buyback of $170:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-november-21-copy/

 

[Paul Stupin]

You can check out the older ROFR threads to see what has been taken and passed in the past but its really a crap shoot it seems. One day a contract can pass and then next day the same PPP for the same resort will be taken. Its all voodoo.

It’s not really a crap shoot. If you offer higher than the highest price Disney has recently taken, though there are no guarantees, and of course they can always surprise us, buyers will probably pass. The higher a buyer goes over the highest ROFR price, the more likely the contract will pass, no?

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

though there are no guarantees

So it is a crap shoot, no?

 

[Paul Stupin]

So it is a crap shoot, no?

No guarantees doesn't mean it’s a crap shoot, does it? It is for buyers who play the odds and consistently offer within the ROFR range, who are well aware that sooner or later they’ll get one through, but I truly don’t think it is for offers $3-$10 above the most recent ROFR price. Do you think many $175 CCV contracts are getting taken? Doesn’t seem like a crap shoot to me, no?

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

No guarantees doesn't mean it’s a crap shoot, does it? It is for buyers who play the odds and consistently offer within the ROFR range, who are well aware that sooner or later they’ll get one through, but I truly don’t think it is for offers $3-$10 above the most recent ROFR price. Do you think many $175 CCV contracts are getting taken? Doesn’t seem like a crap shoot to me, no?

A crap shoot is "something that has an unpredictable outcome". The ROFR process is a crapshoot. For example, today we saw a SSR contract passed at $115pp. Was it because it was stripped? Maybe. Truth is no one knows. Neither do the brokers. And they'll often tell you they've seen the craziest contracts pass, and crazier ones taken. Would any of us have guessed BCV would get taken at $160pp?? I certainly didnt. We don't know when Disney will start buying CCV at $170+... It's a crap shoot.

 

[Paul Stupin]

A crap shoot is "something that has an unpredictable outcome". The ROFR process is a crapshoot. For example, today we saw a SSR contract passed at $115pp. Was it because it was stripped? Maybe. Truth is no one knows. Neither do the brokers. And they'll often tell you they've seen the craziest contracts pass, and crazier ones taken. Would any of us have guessed BCV would get taken at $160pp?? I certainly didnt. We don't know when Disney will start buying CCV at $170+... It's a crap shoot.

All valid points, and I see where you’re coming from. And, agreed, there are always cases where surefire contracts are taken, and contracts you never think will pass actually do. But, in my opinion, those are the exceptions. Every single contract where I’ve offered over the highest priced contract taken in ROFR within the previous two months has passed. No exceptions. So my experience leads me to think that the process really isn’t a crapshoot. There is always some element of uncertainty, but a buyer can make an offer whose chances of passing are pretty good, don’t you agree?

Lets take my CCV example. Say I had an offer accepted for a 100 point contract at $180 per point. I guess there’s a distant possibility it will get taken, but do you really think it will?

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

All valid points, and I see where you’re coming from. And, agreed, there are always cases where surefire contracts are taken, and contracts you never think will pass actually do. But, in my opinion, those are the exceptions. Every single contract where I’ve offered over the highest priced contract taken in ROFR within the previous two months has passed. No exceptions. So my experience leads me to think that the process really isn’t a crapshoot. There is always some element of uncertainty, but a buyer can make an offer whose chances of passing are pretty good, don’t you agree?

Lets take my CCV example. Say I had an offer accepted for a 100 point contract at $180 per point. I guess there’s a distant possibility it will get taken, but do you really think it will?

The higher you pay, the more improved your odds are to passing ROFR, that I can agree with. However it’s almost like a blind auction. You know what others paid in the past, but you don’t know what Disney is willing to pay today. It’s very possible that CCV at $180 passes, but its not for sure. I’ll guess that whoever paid $170 last month for CCV was astonished to see it was taken. I was! Weren’t you? How do you know for sure it will not be taken at $180? It’s an unpredictable outcome. The only way its not a crap shoot is if you buy direct.

 

[Sandisw]

The higher you pay, the more improved your odds are to passing ROFR, that I can agree with. However it’s almost like a blind auction. You know what others paid in the past, but you don’t know what Disney is willing to pay today. It’s very possible that CCV at $180 passes, but its not for sure. I’ll guess that whoever paid $170 last month for CCV was astonished to see it was taken. I was! Weren’t you? How do you know for sure it will not be taken at $180? It’s an unpredictable outcome. The only way its not a crap shoot is if you buy direct.

Maybe just different way of defining it. Chances are much higher you pass ROFR when you are close to ones that are passing and above the threshold where the majority are not..

I don’t define that as a crapshoot because there is info that you can use to help. To me, if ROFR was all over the board…not the oddity here or there that gets taken or passes…and a normal $20 point swing…then yeah, it might be.

But, if the majority of contracts are passing for SSR in high $120s now, you know that is a good place to be.

 

[KVacc]

I can’t believe we are arguing what about a crap shoot is….

 

[HIRyeDVC]

The highest CCV has been ROFR’d was $162pp so anything above that is probably safe.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I can’t believe we are arguing about a crap shoot is….

I’ve seen those two debate just about everything . J/k.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

I’ve seen those two debate just about everything . J/k.

LOL. "Argue" is probably not the right word. Healthy debate more like it. I have nothing but respect for @PaulStupin. He opened my eyes to Aulani.

CCV was taken at $170 in October by the way.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

LOL. "Argue" is probably not the right word. Healthy debate more like it. I have nothing but respect for @PaulStupin. He opened my eyes to Aulani.

CCV was taken at $170 in October by the way.

I never said “argue”! But yes, love all the “healthy“ debates. I never considered owning Aulani, but now I’m looking! And yikes re CCV at $170pp. That was probably a one off but still makes me feel good as an owner.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

I never said “argue”! But yes, love all the “healthy“ debates. I never considered owning Aulani, but now I’m looking! And yikes re CCV at $170pp. That was probably a one off but still makes me feel good as an owner.

And I think a price increase is coming soon on CCV too. If so, CCV owners are cooking nicely! That's why I'm trying to get onboard.

A "one off" as in a "crap shoot"?? Kidding Kidding...

 

[HIRyeDVC]

And I think a price increase is coming soon on CCV too. If so, CCV owners are cooking nicely! That's why I'm trying to get onboard.

A "one off" as in a "crap shoot"?? Kidding Kidding...

Not to promote my own home resort but I always believed that CCV has a very high resale ceiling due to its contract length and being the last of the “legacy” DVC resorts. My only wish is for a monorail station but the remoteness also works with the theme. It’s also a pretty small resort so there will always be people looking to buy direct, which will mean more ROFRs. So yes. With CCV, it’s more of a “crap shoot”

 

[Paul Stupin]

LOL. "Argue" is probably not the right word. Healthy debate more like it. I have nothing but respect for @PaulStupin. He opened my eyes to Aulani.

CCV was taken at $170 in October by the way.

I think sometimes I might be too obnoxious, but I love the debate! And my esteemed fellow debaters are great at expressing different points of view.

 

[Sandisw]

I think sometimes I might be too obnoxious, but I love the debate! And my esteemed fellow debaters are great at expressing different points of view.

And honestly, in todays World, having a healthy debate about a crap shoot does relieve stress and make you smile!!!