Contemporary - smallest DVC?

[keishashadow]

Being a salesperson myself, if I were to have a customer that is ready to purchase now, but could be willing to wait a little bit if there is a probability of something better in the near future been announced, I would certainly play the part of the fool that knows nothing about it. Why would I do something to stall a sale on something that it's still a rumor and who knows when or if will ever be announced? It's the nature of the saleperson. Remember we make commissions and are measured by our bosses based on actual sales, not in the probability of future sales.

What! Do you mean that Real Estate Salespeople are in it for the money?LOL I have a PA real estate license, not sure if DVC employees are bound by confidentiality to the seller or buyer agency, etc. Regardless, I'm sure they have extensive training in both closing the deal in hand & hedging their bets on future transactions.

 

[Stitch 03]

Unless I'm the Disney resorts unit. With the cash rates that could be demanded for refurbished rooms in that location, I certainly wouldn't give up the property cheap. The real question is whether that land is more valuable with $400+ per night resort rooms for the next 50 years, or in selling it off to DVC.

And then there's the question of whether DVC is even interested in building properites that small.

I don't see the number of rooms at the hotel as being a negative...particularly if demand is such to fill those rooms.

I have to admit that I have not crunched the numbers. I just saw a scenario where the proceeds from the sale of the property to DVC would pay for the remodel. I could see a situation where the remodel is done and occupancy rates are higher due to losing 250 - 300 rooms. In this situation, the CR could fetch another $50 - $75 a night over today's rates with little to no capital outlay. The higher rates would be in line with rates at the Poly and the GF.

Now if they can increase the rates by keeping the North Wing and fill those rooms, then the resorts division may be better off keeping the North Wing. But then they would have to finance the entire refurb themselves.

And you are right - it will not be cheap for DVC to acquire the North Wing.

 

[JandD Mom]

I am confused about the assumptions that a N. Wing Contemporary DVC would be small. If DVC destroys the building and builds a new structure, couldn't they re-allocate space and even go up an extra storey or 2?

 

[tjkraz]

I am confused about the assumptions that a N. Wing Contemporary DVC would be small. If DVC destroys the building and builds a new structure, couldn't they re-allocate space and even go up an extra storey or 2?

Maybe, maybe not.

Disney has long wanted to build a fourth resort on the monorail line between the Poly and the Contemporary. They've twice tried to pour concrete pilings to test the stability of the land, and both times the test pilings disappeared into the ground, and they were forced to cancel the project.

Remember most of WDW is swamp land. The Seven Seas Lagoon is a man-made body of water, created when they excavated that land to build up for the Magic Kingdom and surrounding structures.

I know that raises more questions than it answers. My only point is that given the condition of the land in that area, it's not a foregone conclusion that they could build a larger and/or taller structure.

One other issue that I've never been able to resolve is the timing, if the CR is actually coming. About 15 months ago SSR had just opened and was well on its way to opening about 550 units. In May 2004 DVC announced that they were adding "Phase 3" to the resort with about 250 more units than originally planned. If Disney was so hot to build at the Contemporary, why didn't they proceed with that project instead of adding more units to SSR? They could have always added on to SSR in a few years.

 

[JohnNJ]

Remember most of WDW is swamp land. The Seven Seas Lagoon is a man-made body of water, created when they excavated that land to build up for the Magic Kingdom and surrounding structures.

If Disney was so hot to build at the Contemporary, why didn't they proceed with that project instead of adding more units to SSR? They could have always added on to SSR in a few years.

While Seven Seas Lagoon is man made, Bay Lake is a natural lake that was there when Disney purchased the land. The land surrounding the Poly is very poor and so unstable that cranes used for building and pool repairs are floated in on a barge because they'd sink on land. The land that the Contemporary is built on is much more stable and can handle new construction.

I would guess that continuing the SSR project is a matter of logistics. Everyone is in the groove at SSR, including the workers, materials, equipment, sales staff, etc. Why change gears and move to a new project at CR and then back to SSR for phase 3? They know they have buyers waiting for CR so there's no rush to start there, especially while there's still lots of fish to hook at SSR.

 

[JimFitz]

I would guess that continuing the SSR project is a matter of logistics. Everyone is in the groove at SSR, including the workers, materials, equipment, sales staff, etc. Why change gears and move to a new project at CR and then back to SSR for phase 3? They know they have buyers waiting for CR so there's no rush to start there, especially while there's still lots of fish to hook at SSR.

I agree with this. It would not make sense to stop this development mid stream to build a smaller resort that would sell much faster than SSR.

 

[tjkraz]

I agree with this. It would not make sense to stop this development mid stream to build a smaller resort that would sell much faster than SSR.

I'll expand on my thoughts and try to actually make SOME sense along the way.

Let's go back to 2001 and look at how SSR came to be. Originally Eagle Pines got the green light. Then the impact of 9/11 began to set-in. Disney decided to close the Disney Institute and SSR became an answer to two problems--new DVC resort and use for DI property.

Wouldn't the same logic apply to the Contemporary? The SSR Phase 3 decision would have been made 18-24 months ago. Tourism was still well below pre-9/11 numbers and the resort was throwing money away trying to maintain and service those rooms, when the guest population could easily be shifted elsewhere. The Garden Wings at the CR have been in disrepair for years.

I keep getting the sense (my perception only) that the longer this drags-out and the less likely it is to happen. In the face of higher tourism and a well-received remodel of the CR rooms, why would Disney want to turn this prime real estate over to DVC?

There is a precedent of additional construction at OKW which occurred after the Boardwalk.

Two other factors to consider:

1. I've read many times how people thing SSR is "too big", "pool is too small", and other related comments. These perceptions have to be impacting sales on some level. If the orignal plan for 550 units had been maintained, these fears would have never been an issue for current and prospective owners.

2. Sales of the "Phase 3" units at SSR would have received a boost if it occurred AFTER the Contemporary were part of DVC. DVC sells the entire resort package as a whole, regardless of where one owns. The CR would undoubtedly add value to all subsequent sales.

 

[gppnj]

I seem to be in the minority in that I've never cared for the CR. And back in the days when CR and Poly were all there was, my mother for some reason didn't like the Poly (even though we never stayed there), so we always stayed at CR. I don't think it's horrible, but I like the theming better elsewhere.

 

[Stitch 03]

I'll expand on my thoughts and try to actually make SOME sense along the way.

Let's go back to 2001 and look at how SSR came to be. Originally Eagle Pines got the green light. Then the impact of 9/11 began to set-in. Disney decided to close the Disney Institute and SSR became an answer to two problems--new DVC resort and use for DI property.

Wouldn't the same logic apply to the Contemporary? The SSR Phase 3 decision would have been made 18-24 months ago. Tourism was still well below pre-9/11 numbers and the resort was throwing money away trying to maintain and service those rooms, when the guest population could easily be shifted elsewhere. The Garden Wings at the CR have been in disrepair for years.

I keep getting the sense (my perception only) that the longer this drags-out and the less likely it is to happen. In the face of higher tourism and a well-received remodel of the CR rooms, why would Disney want to turn this prime real estate over to DVC?

There is a precedent of additional construction at OKW which occurred after the Boardwalk.

Two other factors to consider:

1. I've read many times how people thing SSR is "too big", "pool is too small", and other related comments. These perceptions have to be impacting sales on some level. If the orignal plan for 550 units had been maintained, these fears would have never been an issue for current and prospective owners.

2. Sales of the "Phase 3" units at SSR would have received a boost if it occurred AFTER the Contemporary were part of DVC. DVC sells the entire resort package as a whole, regardless of where one owns. The CR would undoubtedly add value to all subsequent sales.

There would be one reason why the CR would not have been made right away, and that is the current remodel. Who knows how long this has been on the drawing board. For all it appears to be a fairly recent developmnent, plans for the remodel (though lacking specifics) could have been in the cards pre-2001.

Possibly the North Wing has been held back because it is needed. They wanted the extra rooms as Shades of Green went through its remodel and they want the rooms through the current CR remodel. Even if there is an agreement in place to transfer the North Wing to DVC I do not see it taking place until after the South Wing and Tower are complete. Again, if.

Your arguement as to why they did not develop DVC sooner can also be applied to any other future DVC property. Example, if the rumor is true that AKL was designed with DVC in mind, why was this not done earlier.

The fact of the matter is we do not know what is going on and can only guess at the rationale behind certain decisions.

If the CRV were to be announced and put on sale within 2006 there will be positive spin-offs for SSR. Sure sales may slow down in the short term as potential owners gravitate to CRV. But once sold out, it will be another selling feature to SSR.

A couple of things to clarify. First, I would not at all be suprised to hear CRV announces within the next year. I also would not be suprised to find out it will not happen. Second, for all I would probably stay at CRV it would not be my first choice. I would prefer to see something at the AKL.

My support for this rumor is based on my belief, based on all I have heard, that it is the most likely choice for the next DVC at WDW. I have heard alot of other rumors ranging from credible (CRV) to possibles (AKL) to pure fantasy (POFQ).

I do believe that we will know the true answer soon (within a year). They will either announce DVC at the CR or they will announce the closing and remodel of the North Wing.

As I said earlier... Stay Tuned

 

[ryanmilla]

Since we're staying hypothetical here, I have a hypothetical question. Let's say they announce that CR will be the next DVC resort. How long after the announcement will they start making sales? Will it be near the end of construction OR right after the announcement? This will let me know how long I have to save for this purchase.

Also, if you are already a DVC owner at another resort (SSR for me), can you buy a small amount of points at the new resort OR do you have to buy the 150 mininum?

 

[spiceycat]

25 points is the min when paying cash/credit card.

if you are financing 50 points.

if you want the current discount/deal then 100 points.

buy enough to stay in a studio for 5 days in adventure season and you will happier than if you buy less.

Disney is very good at following the timeshares rules for FLorida plus some. So I think it will be a few months after the announcement. I think they have to get approval in Florida, and Fl won't approval it until a certain part is completely. (but way before it is finished) I think the foundation?????

since this building already has a foundation - it DVC doesn't destroy it - maybe sooner????

You can get on your guide list as soon as the annoucement is made however. Then when he/she can sell it - you will be one of the first to get the call or mailing.

 

[mamaprincess]

Please stop feeding into my fantasy life already!

 

[vascubaguy]

Hrmm... if/when they do open up sales for CRV.... I wonder what it will run per point (and how much the MN fees would be). More hypotheticals - $125 per point... and I'd guess higher MN fees than most DVC's because it's on the monorail... older structure... and sharing with the MN costs of the CR common areas...

 

[palmtreegirl]

just back and my guide said CR is a GO, and the only question is when, not if. He said he has a 5 page waiting list for CR, and that DVC predicts that it will sell CR out in 4-5 months. Now all I have to do is start saving for my add on!! Hopefully this will all come to pass. How nice it will be to have DVC on the monorail!

That's funny because we were down 2 weeks ago and asked 2 different guides about the rumor, both said it was just that a rumor and there was no truth to it. Guess it's a wait and see for the truth!

 

[spiceycat]

My guide is still wondering herself. At present she says that it is still a rumor,

However she mentioned that both the BCV and VWL sold for current price. So whatever the current price of SSR at the time - might be the price for CRV (oh that sound nice!!!).

operating costs - well BCV is less than BWV??? So sharing a DVC with a WDW hotel has been good for operating costs.

 

[ryanmilla]

25 points is the min when paying cash/credit card.

if you are financing 50 points.

if you want the current discount/deal then 100 points.

But I thought that the 25 cash/50 finance was for add-ons. What if you were buying into the resort for the first time, like if we wanted to buy into CR if it became a DVC resort? Is that still considered an add-on to my presnet SSR ownership? Or is that a new contract all-together (therefore needing the min. 150 pts)?

 

[spiceycat]

if you already own at any DVC resort then it is an add on.

I own 240 at oKW, 60 VWL and 50 BWV.

DVC was designed to allow this.

 

[wtpclc]

Once you are a DVC owner, any additional DVC points are considered add-ons.

 

[rinkwide]

There're some pretty delusional people out there.

If and when the Contemporary Villas are announced you can bet the pricing will be commensurately high to go with the resort's instant boutique status. Imagine a minimum $150 per point price and a point per night rate 1.5 times higher than SSR. We'll see who's ready to put their money down then.

I suspect the Contemporary will become the ultimate "bait" for prospective new members. This marries perfectly with the effort to move SSR as guides will sell against the "expensive" resort toward the more accessible Saratoga (being sure to mention the ability to stay at the Contemporary "anytime you like").

 

[CarolA]

Didn't they also say that Eagle Pines was a go?

They even did press releases and sent us info on this one and what happened... we got SSR!