Considering First Purchase.....could use some advice

[Aron1012]

To give a little background we took our DD 6 for her first trip last June. It was actually mine too. We stayed at PVB on recommendation of family and loved everything about it! We did a Deluxe Studio with an AP discount. Everyone had such a good time we decided to go back in Feb before the AP expired and planned a trip to stay at AK. Few months before we left my niece and nephew decided to join us, so we moved to DS at PVB again to fit all 5. It was another great trip and further confirmed our love of PVB.

Conversation with another passenger on plane home sparked my interest in DVC and have been researching it here since. Hoping to get a little more direct advice. We mainly intend to stay at PVB about a week/year and likely in May-Jul due to school schedule. It seems right now getting DS at PVB for summer at 7 months is not an issue, but wonder when it sells out. My initial thought was to purchase AK because of the lower price/point knowing we would be ok staying there if we couldn't get into Poly each year.

So my question is am I crazy for buying at a resort we have never been to and is really our second choice, just to save some money up front?

 

[lovin'fl]

We bought OKW in 2006 before we ever set foot there. In fact, we bought after two trips with one off site stay and one stay at Port Orleans. So buying at AKV before visiting is not too crazy. I think your plan could be a good one. But AKV is bookable at 7 months out almost all the time (in standard or savanna views, not value or club level). So, I'd go one step farther and suggest you buy at SSR for saving money. Now I do not know how availability is at Poly. We have not tried to book there yet. But DVC, in general, is tough to book from F&W time (Halloween Party, Jersey week, Thanksgiving, cheap points early Dec and Xmas) through early January (New Year's and marathon). Other holidays can be tough too, like July 4th or Easter. Some folks with more knowledge on Poly can chime in. But I'd think most of July would be do-able at the 7 month window (and a tip is...go online right at 8am of the exact day of 7 month window to book).

 

[Aron1012]

That's an interesting thought, guessing you didn't regret that purchase. Is there that much difference in price between SSR/AK? Also does that contract run as long? Not sure how big of deal that is. I did notice that is one difference between AK & PVB is 5 years longer. Don't really know what other reason PVB is so much higher up front.....other than being an awesome resort.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

There are two schools of thought:
1) Buy where you don't mind staying
2) Buy where you love to stay

Personally, I am in favor of buying where you love to stay - which would lead you to Poly. It is true that at the time you are going, it is generally available at 7 months out. However, no one knows what will happen when the resort sells out. There is a theory that the studios will be hard to book because not that many people can afford the Bungalows. But really no-one knows.

Having said that, you should be aware that most DVC resorts offer Deluxe Studios, 1 Bedrooms, 2 Bedrooms, and Grand Villas (3 BR). The Poly is different in that it only offers Deluxe Studios and Bungalows, which are 2 BR for the price of a 3BR, due to their desirability over the water. So if you see Studios meeting your needs for the foreseeable future, Poly can do that. If you see that you may need 1 BR or 2 BR at a busy time, you may want to consider other resorts.

The Poly is still in its selling phase, so buying there is possible in the resale market, but doesn't save you very much. AKL and SSR are both readily available on the resale market, so you could save quite a bit of money.

 

[Wakey]

When will you go and what type of room? I bought SSR as it is easily best bang for the buck (dues are lower than AKL makes a big difference over the life of the contract ). I go mainly August and get a 1 bed. Everywhere is available at that time, even Poly studios, 7 months out. I just booked a Poly studio beginning of Sept, 6 months no problem. Google Skier Pete on here, he has charts of 7 month availability. There are others- knowing if rooms are available at 7 months when you are likely to travel is a massive factor in where to buy. I'm of the mantra buy where you wouldn't mind staying, which for me is any DVC at WDW, and so cheapest price SSR, knowing I can literally book any 1 bed in August when I go (Kids long school vacation) made 100% sense, and it was a no contest.

 

[ziravan]

3rd school of thought is 'buy cheapest combo of points and MF and trade out at 7 months.'

That would be SSR and trading out is harder than it used to be, but if you're flexible, you can still make it work.

I don't think this is the right strategy for you, but putting it out there for your consideration.

 

[Aron1012]

Those are excellent points. I think at least for now the Deluxe Studio suits our needs. Along the lines of it still being in the selling phase I wondered about buying AK now with the idea that I could sell it/purchase PVB at some point down the road if it became difficult to book at 7 months. I'm guessing the resale market on PVB has more room to fall than AK, but maybe I am missing something with that thought.

 

[Aron1012]

My thought on AK vs SSR is that they are close enough in price we really prefer AK strongly over SSR. So if we weren't able to get PVB it is better fall back. Am I understanding it correctly you can book your home resort during the 11 month window and then if something opens up at the 7 month window somewhere else you can move the reservation to it?

 

[ziravan]

I own BCV resale and Poly direct. If you're buying Poly, I still think it's not cheap enough to buy resale - yet. That may change over the next year if the current trend continues. Poly is dipping into the 120's resale, when it goes consistently below $120, resale will be a better deal.

Right now, Poly resale at $130 vs direct at ~$160 with incentive is about $4500 for 150 points difference. With that difference you get the discounts including AP which can be significant and member perks.

Plus, I believe since DVC is intent on following timeshare industry differentiation between direct and resale buyers, that they are going to double down on that again in a way that might not need to grandfather previous resale buyers. By that I mean instead of taking things away, they'll add perks to members who own certain amounts of direct points aka VIP status.

That's all enough in my book to still buy Poly direct if you choose Poly.

One more thought coming....

 

[Wakey]

My thought on AK vs SSR is that they are close enough in price we really prefer AK strongly over SSR. So if we weren't able to get PVB it is better fall back. Am I understanding it correctly you can book your home resort during the 11 month window and then if something opens up at the 7 month window somewhere else you can move the reservation to it?

Don't forget dues. Over the life of the contract AKL will cost thousands more. Dues also increases compound. Don't underestimate this cost.

 

[Aron1012]

Don't forget dues. Over the life of the contract AKL will cost thousands more. Dues also increases compound. Don't underestimate this cost.

I know what you are saying about dues, but do all MF get same increase across the board?

 

[ziravan]

Buy in isn't the driver of cost over time. MFs are.

Some examples, all considering a 150 point purchase:

1. Buy where you want to stay: Poly, direct. 48 yrs left on contract. $176.00 no cash incentives for new buyers unless you buy at least 175 points.

That's 176/48 or 3.67 per point per year to own. The cost of every point in every year for length of ownership for Poly is $3.67 if bought this year. If you buy a UY of Apr or later (because this is March, a UY later than the current month of the year) they'll add in prior year (2016) points and that'll make cost per point $176/49yrs = $3.59.

Plus MFs this year are $6.14 so the current year cost for Poly is $9.73 per point to own (buy in plus MF per point).

This is the buy in cost factored across the whole contract.

2. Buy where you want to stay, part 2. Poly resale: $130/48 yrs = $2.71 plus MF $6.14 = $8.85/pt.

3. Buy where you don't mind staying: AKV.

Resale AKV can be bought reasonably for $85/point - I used ROFR thread for that estimate. End date 2057, 39 yrs. Current dues: $6.59.

85/39 = $2.18 plus MF $6.59 = $8.77/pt.

4. Buy best combo of price/MF. SSR.

Resale $80
End date 2054
Current MF $5.60

80/36 = $2.22 plus $5.60 = $7.82/pt.

Here are your direct comparisons, in today's dollars (MFs will go up over time) for each scenario, for the real cost of each point you are looking to buy:

1. Poly direct: $9.73
2. Poly resale: $8.85
3. AKV resale: $8.77
4. SSR resale: $7.82

So. How much is it worth to buy where you want to stay vs where you don't mind staying vs cheapest? That's a personal decision.

 

[ziravan]

I bought BCV without ever staying there. No regrets.

We love AKV and stay there quite a bit. Unless you are looking to book value or concierge routinely, you can generally book AKV at 7 months consistently except during Fall Frenzy (DVC busy season is start of F&W festival in Sep through Jan marathon the first weekend in Dec.)

We love AKV.

 

[lovin'fl]

MF do not all increase the same and I think AKV has been increasing more than others, I think. And some suspect it will because of the animal care costs.

We bought an AKV resale and resold it 2.5 years later when we found we could book with our OKW points at 7 months out. We love AKV (one of our faves and OKW is our least fave). Plus we sold for $14pp more than we paid.

We have used our OKW at every east coast DVC resort except for VGF and Poly (but haven't tried for those two yet...takes too many points). It has gotten harder than it was in 2006 but it's still do-able. Especially if you can be flexible on dates, stalk the resort availability tracker, make short wait lists, book split stays at 2 or more resorts, do shorter trips, go online at 8am right at the 7 month window...which we are fine with all these things and I have had pretty good success. But as more and more points are sold it will become harder and harder when there are more and more members competing for same resies.

 

[ziravan]

MF do not all increase the same and I think AKV has been increasing more than others, I think. And some suspect it will because of the animal care costs.

And both previous Poly MF increases (2016, 2017) have been negligible. It's generally believed that DVC likes to keep MFs down while still selling. So. That could be an argument for MFs there going up fast after the resort is officially sold out in about a year.

Plus. Many believe that Poly point holders using studios are subsidizing via MFs the huge costs to maintain 'over the water' Bungalows.

 

[ziravan]

My thought on AK vs SSR is that they are close enough in price we really prefer AK strongly over SSR. So if we weren't able to get PVB it is better fall back. Am I understanding it correctly you can book your home resort during the 11 month window and then if something opens up at the 7 month window somewhere else you can move the reservation to it?

There's a trick for cross booking at 7 months, leaving one window with booking new reservation open while simultaneously cancelling 11 month booking to free up the points in a 2nd window.

Member services can theoretically hold both reservations while making the change.

Bottom line, there's a small chance you can cancel your 11 month reservation and lose out on booking the 7 month one and walk away without either. It certainly happens but I don't think it's common.

Even so. If you could successfully transfer a 11 month booking to a 7 month booking 9/10 times, then that just means that 10th reservation is gonna take a little more work.

 

[Aron1012]

1. Poly direct: $9.73
2. Poly resale: $8.85
3. AKV resale: $8.77
4. SSR resale: $7.82

So. How much is it worth to buy where you want to stay vs where you don't mind staying vs cheapest? That's a personal decision.

Thanks for this comparison. I hadn't looked at it in exactly that way. I was trying to compare it over a 10 year period and seeing if I could effectively save enough vs discount rate to pay back buy in. My thought is as our DD gets older we may be likely to sell it. But I also only planned on taking trip every 3 or so years, and we went twice in 7 months.

 

[Aron1012]

MF do not all increase the same and I think AKV has been increasing more than others, I think. And some suspect it will because of the animal care costs.

Never even considered this but seems to make perfect sense. Luckily I have some time to consider most everything as our next trip is not until July 2018 likely. But no doubt there is a lot to consider with these.

 

[lovin'fl]

Thanks for this comparison. I hadn't looked at it in exactly that way. I was trying to compare it over a 10 year period and seeing if I could effectively save enough vs discount rate to pay back buy in. My thought is as our DD gets older we may be likely to sell it. But I also only planned on taking trip every 3 or so years, and we went twice in 7 months.

My kids are 20, 18 and 18 and SIL's are 24, 22 and 19 and all still love going so....

 

[disneynutz]

Only you know if you will be kicking yourself later if you decide that you like another resort better than your home resort. You will have to deal with the disappointment if you can't book a resort at 7 months. You have to come up with the purchase price and the yearly dues that increase about 4% per year and when you sell you have to come up with the 10% broker commission. You also will be taking more Disney vacations than before and spending more on vacations than before. I did a study on our BCV contract and the cost of ownership, vacation costs, until the contract termination date and we could be spending $300,000 for our Disney vacations, that's something to think about.

Bill