Considering First Purchase.....could use some advice

[KAT4DISNEY]

MF do not all increase the same and I think AKV has been increasing more than others, I think. And some suspect it will because of the animal care costs.

That thought keeps floating out there about AKV but hasn't really shown itself to be correct. OKW has been catching up to it as have others such as VWL.

When talking about cost comparisons you also have to keep in perspective the point requirements. AKV has some of the lower point rooms of any DVC resorts. PVB equals the highest most seasons. For example a week in a savannah view studio at AKV in Adventure season costs $672.18 in dues (102 points) while a PVB standard view studio costs $724.52 in dues (118 points). And if you compared a value studio at AKV it's $454.71 (69 points) or a standard view is $533.79 (81 points). So Savannah view is $52.34 less than PVB, Standard view is $190.73 less than PVB and Value is $269.81 less than PVB. All of that means lower up front buy in also as you can purchase less up front. If AKV is appealing for at least some of the stays then even with higher dues it's possible it would cost less to own there. And PVB probably does have more to lose on the resale side than AKV points do as they've been adjusting and have settled in pretty well.

Thanks for this comparison. I hadn't looked at it in exactly that way. I was trying to compare it over a 10 year period and seeing if I could effectively save enough vs discount rate to pay back buy in. My thought is as our DD gets older we may be likely to sell it. But I also only planned on taking trip every 3 or so years, and we went twice in 7 months.

Do you have any other experience at other lodging at WDW? If not it's very possible you'd find other locations just as enjoyable and are linking a lot of the enjoyment of a WDW trip to PVB when it might be just as great other places.

Also, if I were already thinking about only holding for 10 years I have two directions of thought and number two would be most financially appealing. One is to spend whatever money for where you love to stay - but I don't know if you really know that PVB is that place if you haven't tried others. Plus it has limitations of studios only (or very, very expensive 2BR bungalows) so if you end up wanting larger accommodations during those 10 years you'd have to trade and could just as well have bought elsewhere. Or the second thought - buy a resale that has already been adjusted in the market - such as SSR or AKV and use it to either stay at those resorts or to trade out to whatever else might be available at 7 months.

At WDW there are other options that work great too - rent reservations from DVC owners or pay cash from Disney.

 

[Aron1012]

Thanks for all the responses, there have been little things in each that are helpful! While we haven't stayed anywhere else we have had dinner or visited VGF, BLT, BCV, and BWV. Each of those are very nice resorts, but for one reason or another wouldn't be our first choice. That isn't to say we wouldn't be fine staying at any of them if our first option wasn't available at 7 months. In fact I do hope to stay at many of the other resorts at some point. Though I think SSR and OKW would be the last two on our list.

As to the point about it not being worth the difference at this point to buy resale vs direct at Poly? I would think at $30/pt it would still be worth it to buy a contract 25 pts less than what you needed and do a direct add-on right? That is what I was considering doing.

 

[ziravan]

Thanks for all the responses, there have been little things in each that are helpful! While we haven't stayed anywhere else we have had dinner or visited VGF, BLT, BCV, and BWV. Each of those are very nice resorts, but for one reason or another wouldn't be our first choice. That isn't to say we wouldn't be fine staying at any of them if our first option wasn't available at 7 months. In fact I do hope to stay at many of the other resorts at some point. Though I think SSR and OKW would be the last two on our list.

As to the point about it not being worth the difference at this point to buy resale vs direct at Poly? I would think at $30/pt it would still be worth it to buy a contract 25 pts less than what you needed and do a direct add-on right? That is what I was considering doing.

That is a great strategy and I would recommend it.

I still think that, given DVCs current bent to condition resale points, that the differential still stilts towards buying direct, for a little longer.

For example, suppose DVC offers an extra FP for each room night booked with direct points? Or a VIP program that includes extra FPs where only direct points count.

The 25 point add on will restore past exclusions but maybe not future ones. And that seems to be the trend in timeshares.

Is that worth the extra money?

Direct for a 150 point contract will cost you about $4500 more.

Buying the 25 point contract plus the extra $500 for the additional closing would cost you about $900 more plus the extra closing so $1400 more than buying all resale.

So. The difference between 150 direct points and 125 resale plus 25 direct is then about $3000.

Plus buying direct you'd get a free SSR booking I think that you can use immediately. And you could have points in your account next week instead going off to ROFR.

I'm certainly not pushing direct. I think the time is soon coming where resale will be a better deal and I think that is clearly the case for every other resort.

I believe it's a push today. I think you'd be well served with either option.

PS look at guaranteed weeks if you focus in on Poly. There are several good disboards threads on that.

 

[Aron1012]

I tried searching Guaranteed Weeks, and found a few, but no good explanation of what it is. I found that it is a 10% premium to use those points. Can you give me brief explanation?

Those are some good benefits of buying direct and your thought of future benefits (such as 4th FP) are definitely interesting. And I didn't know you got a free SSR booking with purchase. I haven't actually called DVC to even inquire, but thinking maybe I should at some point?

One other question I can't seem to find is how do cancellations work? My hope is to get a Dec-Feb UY since we will mainly travel May-July. My understanding is that if you had to cancel it would be ok to bank any points (as long as they weren't already banker from prev yr). Is that correct?

 

[lovin'fl]

Fixed weeks are 10% more points than the average point cost for that week. You buy that many points, with the 10% extra. Then you can chose, each year, to stick with your fixed week or opt out and get the full number of points to use however you want. The reason to buy a fixed week is to guarantee a time when it might be hard to book even at 11 months out. For example, we are considering a Dec fixed week for a studio at the new CCV. With Dec being a prime time at CCV and BRV and studios being the most in demand, trying to book on points ...even at 11 months... might be difficult. So my week 50, right before Xmas, is 107 points to book a studio with points and add 10% (11 more points) for 118 that I'd need to pay for to get that week. I would be guaranteed that week each year or can opt out and use my 118 points.

Poly right now, buying direct, gets you 100 one time use points at SSR...or can trade that for $$ off. That's if you buy something like 125+ points. Also they have other $$ off per point based on the number of points you buy. CCV is only offering some $$ off pp for 150+ points.

Cancellations... if you cancel 30 days out or less then points go in holding where you have until the end of your UY to use them but cannot book anything farther out than 60 days. We had it happen once and was a pain to use them as not much available last minute like that... ended up at HHI in March. Canceling before the 30 days... you can then bank points if you are still in the banking window (that's like 4 months before end of UY or something... must bank my Aug 2016 UY by March 31, 2017). And you can only bank points one time. You can only borrow one time, one year ahead, as well.

 

[CarolMN]

May - Jul has traditionally been one of the easier times to book DVC villas at 7 months. I do not look for that to change anytime soon.

Check out these two highly-regarded posts on Availability:

drusba's Summary of Booking at 7 months

drusba's Summary of Booking Challenges at 11 months

IMO, having a home resort priority booking period at your favorite resort can be a very important factor in choosing a home resort. Sometimes, it's not only about the cost. You won't remember the good deal you got for very long when you'd rather be staying somewhere else because you couldn't get what you wanted at 7 months.

Good luck with your deliberations!

 

[Wakey]

I'm not overly keen on the entire life of contract costs comparisons as a real world cost. I suspect very few people will keep them 50 years. I look at it this was (and I go in quiet times when it's easy to get a 1 bed at 7 months so they are my cirumstances), I got my 160 SSR points (after I'd rented out 160 banked points from last year I couldn't use) at $65 a point for a fully loaded contract. To buy Poly, VGF etc even resale would have cost me more than twice as much-$10,000 + is a lot of dough. If I'd bought Poly, VGF etc it would have made no difference to me in terms of where I stay, just cost me more, a lot more. Dues higher as well. For what I bought in at I could just about justify economically buying in.

 

[ziravan]

I'm not overly keen on the entire life of contract costs comparisons as a real world cost. I suspect very few people will keep them 50 years. I look at it this was (and I go in quiet times when it's easy to get a 1 bed at 7 months so they are my cirumstances), I got my 160 SSR points (after I'd rented out 160 banked points from last year I couldn't use) at $65 a point for a fully loaded contract. To buy Poly, VGF etc even resale would have cost me more than twice as much-$10,000 + is a lot of dough. If I'd bought Poly, VGF etc it would have made no difference to me in terms of where I stay, just cost me more, a lot more. Dues higher as well. For what I bought in at I could just about justify economically buying in.

I do somewhat agree with this thinking, with caveats. I listed out cost of 'buy in' over life of contract not to examine the cost of ownership over 50 years but to look at relative value.

I own BCV and Poly. If I kept them both for another decade and then sold them, Poly would have another 39 yrs left on contract while BCV will have 14 yrs. That will absolutely affect my resale value in 2027.

Plus, DVC has gotten very crowded in the last decade, especially during Fall Frenzy. Booking at the 7 month window is harder. So is booking 11 months out in places. It should be factored into decision making.

'Buy in' philosophy normally is:

1. Buy where you want to stay.

I think the difference in cost of 'buy in' is sufficiently nominal over time to justify this strategy. It's what I did. Yes, you can get into SSR more cheaply, but the resale value will be less to get out as well.

2. Buy cheapest combo of price/MF/length of contract.

Buying SSR and booking 7 months can clearly be a successful strategy, especially if not routinely booking Fall Frenzy.

3. Buy where you don't mind staying.

If I were to adopt this strategy, I'd do as the OP is considering and buy AKV.

 

[Wakey]

Yes some very good points here, and your mentioning of BCV is exactly why I wouldn't have bought it- still a high buy in cost compared to life of contract and realisation price on sale. I expect resale values to really start to be hit as we approach 10-15 years so it could well end up costing you a lot more owning BCV now if you buy in now, compared to Poly. Economically I think Poly is a much better buy than BCV, although not as good as SSR or BLT. However, this is all guesswork and I could be wrong, and BCV hold onto its value 10 years out.

 

[crisi]

My kids are 20, 18 and 18 and SIL's are 24, 22 and 19 and all still love going so....

Mine are 17 and 18. My seventeen year old daughter enjoys Disney, my eighteen year old son has moved on. Both would rather do other things - beaches for him, cities with museums and theatre for her (she's in London right now, one of her favorites)

 

[crisi]

Thanks for all the responses, there have been little things in each that are helpful! While we haven't stayed anywhere else we have had dinner or visited VGF, BLT, BCV, and BWV. Each of those are very nice resorts, but for one reason or another wouldn't be our first choice. That isn't to say we wouldn't be fine staying at any of them if our first option wasn't available at 7 months. In fact I do hope to stay at many of the other resorts at some point. Though I think SSR and OKW would be the last two on our list.

As to the point about it not being worth the difference at this point to buy resale vs direct at Poly? I would think at $30/pt it would still be worth it to buy a contract 25 pts less than what you needed and do a direct add-on right? That is what I was considering doing.

One thing to be aware of is that as the kids get older, their own tastes will change. If you like Poly because its close to the MK, my kids got bored with the MK before middle school. They like DHS and Epcot. Being able to have them take themselves into Epcot or DHS starting when they were tweens (or walk home from one of those two if they wanted to go back to the room) was really nice.

SSR and OKW are the two where its easy to stay (usually) at seven months. VAKL as well (except for the Conceirge and Value rooms). BWV, BCV have traditionally been the most difficult, followed by VGF (particularly difficult in December), BLT (Standard View are really hard year round at seven months), and VWL. We don't have a great track record yet for the Poly - but generally DVC members like point bargains - and there aren't any at the Poly.

 

[lovin'fl]

Mine are 17 and 18. My seventeen year old daughter enjoys Disney, my eighteen year old son has moved on. Both would rather do other things - beaches for him, cities with museums and theatre for her (she's in London right now, one of her favorites)

Yeah, my DS-20 will say, after a trip to WDW, he doesn't want to go back anytime soon. But then when DH and I are planning our annual F&W trip he will complain that he can't go and then is very into plans for the next trip. My twin DDs-18 are all into it... even asked to do their senior week trip there with a friend... to which I obliged.

 

[lovin'fl]

I agree with crisi about tastes changing. I was just thinking about that same point.

When you have littles, you spend a lot of time at MK. You may have strollers to consider. And nap times. But then as the kids grow, they start to like different things. My family became Epcot lovers so being at BWV or BCV is big for us. My SIL's DD-19 is in love with AK so they like staying at AKV so that they can pop over to AK in the morning with their DD while their two older boys (22 & 24) sleep in. They also like staying at SSR for their two boys who get up in time to stroll over to DS for lunch. And they like hanging at DS in the evenings. Another thing, now that SIL and us have older kids, is we like going to F&W for adults only trips. Kids have school then. Again, BWV and BCV are appealing for these trips.

So preferences may change over time as well as they might change based on specific trip. We are about to book for March 2018 for wen our DDs are playing college ball down there so we are looking at easiest resort to get to ballfields from as well as a lower point cost. I will book OKW with my OKW points and then see what's available at 7 months out but probably will stick with OKW or maybe SSR for evenings at DS.

 

[Aron1012]

Totally get what your saying about preferences changing. Even from last summer to Feb our DD liked HS (she is big SW fan) more than MK this time, but they are still top two. I can see that only increasing as time goes on.

The discussion about life of contract is so interesting to me. How much difference does that make and how much will it make if you ever want to sell? Only time will tell I guess. But even though I want to look at it as an investment that could be sold in 10 years, I doubt that will really happen. The thought of getting rooms at 70% discount (assuming cash rental rates increase similar to MF) would be way too appealing to me I think.

I think at this point I have at least narrowed it down to PVB (where we want to be)/AK(2nd choice and good buy in)/SSR(best value but not that interested in staying there). Luckily our next trip isn't until July 2018 most likely so have a little time to watch things. Is there a better time of year to buy in historically? I'll probably be looking for a Dec-Apr UY.

 

[crisi]

If you are looking at resale, a July '18 trip isn't that far away. If you want the 11 month window, that opens up in August. It can take 30-60 days to close on a contract - and a while to find a good one. If you know what you want right now, you are probably looking at a June closing.

If you are planning on selling when your kids are older, then I'd buy a contract with a longer life. I personally think DVC is best for those that choose a Disney lifestyle that will continue without their kids - we will still go once our kids are in college - not as frequently, but we will still use our points. As Minnesotans, the idea of snowbirding in January is nice.

 

[Roxyfire]

If you are looking at resale, a July '18 trip isn't that far away. If you want the 11 Bmonth window, that opens up in August. It can take 30-60 days to close on a contract - and a while to find a good one. If you know what you want right now, you are probably looking at a June closing.

Yeah that was surprising to me, the time it takes. I have an offer out and just signed my paperwork. It said closing on or before May 20th. I'm really glad I found something that'll work and didn't wait around. But is that timeline pretty accurate? Are the DVC folks that slow about getting the closing documents together?

 

[mustinjourney]

To give a little background we took our DD 6 for her first trip last June. It was actually mine too. We stayed at PVB on recommendation of family and loved everything about it! We did a Deluxe Studio with an AP discount. Everyone had such a good time we decided to go back in Feb before the AP expired and planned a trip to stay at AK. Few months before we left my niece and nephew decided to join us, so we moved to DS at PVB again to fit all 5. It was another great trip and further confirmed our love of PVB.

Conversation with another passenger on plane home sparked my interest in DVC and have been researching it here since. Hoping to get a little more direct advice. We mainly intend to stay at PVB about a week/year and likely in May-Jul due to school schedule. It seems right now getting DS at PVB for summer at 7 months is not an issue, but wonder when it sells out. My initial thought was to purchase AK because of the lower price/point knowing we would be ok staying there if we couldn't get into Poly each year.

So my question is am I crazy for buying at a resort we have never been to and is really our second choice, just to save some money up front?

Don't know the exact booking patterns -- but in looking today (03/16/2017) -- May and june are mostly booked, but outside of July 4th weekend, July is completely available for standard view. Lake views have less availability -- but you could certainly swing a split stay in July. Keep in mind -- we're 4 months away from July right now, so I'd venture to guess that there was quite a bit more availability when the 7 month bookings originally opened up. September thru early January are definitely the most popular times for bookings for DVC properties. Poly is also a decent choice for F&W since you can walk to the TTC and hop on the monorail to epcot.

 

[mustinjourney]

My thought on AK vs SSR is that they are close enough in price we really prefer AK strongly over SSR. So if we weren't able to get PVB it is better fall back. Am I understanding it correctly you can book your home resort during the 11 month window and then if something opens up at the 7 month window somewhere else you can move the reservation to it?

that is correct.

 

[mustinjourney]

Those are excellent points. I think at least for now the Deluxe Studio suits our needs. Along the lines of it still being in the selling phase I wondered about buying AK now with the idea that I could sell it/purchase PVB at some point down the road if it became difficult to book at 7 months. I'm guessing the resale market on PVB has more room to fall than AK, but maybe I am missing something with that thought.

Not sure how much PVB resale is going to fall. It is a monorail resort, so the comps are BLT and VGF. Presumably, it will settle into somewhere between those two resorts on resale pricing...so likely between $115 and $130 a point?

What you suggest isn't crazy -- the only thing it could cost you are really the transactional costs associated with buying and selling...so roughly 10-15% of the value of the contract.

 

[mustinjourney]

Thanks for this comparison. I hadn't looked at it in exactly that way. I was trying to compare it over a 10 year period and seeing if I could effectively save enough vs discount rate to pay back buy in. My thought is as our DD gets older we may be likely to sell it. But I also only planned on taking trip every 3 or so years, and we went twice in 7 months.

one trip every three years. HAHAHAHA. Good one!

That's how I sold it to DW -- fast forward a year, and we've already taken 2 trips with 2 more family trips planned. Unfortunately DW is not as into Disney as I am. She much prefers to see "new" things...I am all about finding something I like and rinse, rather, repeat.