Confused whether this is a good deal

[ErinInCT]

I have been debating DVC since I learned about DIS. If it were up to me I'd be in by now, but dh is not the Disney fanatic that I am!! We have 2 dd's (5 & 1 1/2 yrs old) & I feel we have a lot of Disney trips in our future. I just happened to notice a resale that appears to be a very good deal. (Sorry I don't want to share cuz I am afraid someone else will snatch it up). But here is my confusion:
I "rented" points for my last trip (150 for 5 days at VWL 2 bedroom). We plan to always use a 2 bedroom & most likely do a Sun - Fri trip (no weekend nights). I paid $1500 for the trip ($10/point). I was trying to see the break even for the 150 points I am looking at & it looks like it would take 6 yrs (just based on purch price). I called the company & they reminded me about the maint fees which are going to be $652.50 (ok, by now you probably have figured out I am looking at VWL). We plan to go to WDW every other yr so it looks like it would cost us $1300 in maint fees alone for a trip that would only cost us $1500 if we bought points from a DVC'er. (I realize maint fees & point costs will increase in the future) I am not sure what we would do on the off yr we do not go to WDW, either "sell" the points or use them for a different non Disney vacation. Anyway, the dues just seem so expensive since I am not paying much more then that for the points. Am I wrong?

 

[ErinInCT]

Ok, I was trying to throw all this in an Excel spreadsheet (just to confuse myself further). I am using this based on all things remaining the same (which I realize is not the case, but just to make it easier).
I would pay $24142.50 in dues over the next 37 yrs.
But I may rent out my 150 points for $1500 on the off years, making $847.50 every other yr ($1500 minue $652.50 dues). So I would make $16102.50 in rental money.
$24142.4 minus $16102.5 is $8040 which would be my total dues for 37 yrs.
I would pay $27000 to go to WDW every other yr for 37 yrs if I "bought" points from a DVC'er.
I would pay $12350 for my DVC. Add the cost of the DVC to the maint & it would cost $20390 for my DVC. So basically I would be "saving" $6610 over 37 yrs by buying into DVC. Is it worth it?
Now I know this is incorrect because dues will go up and the price to rent points may increase over the going rate now of $10. Also, will the amt of points needed to rent the rooms increase (for ex it was 150 points for the 2bed VWL in Sept last yr, can it go to 200 next yr?)?
I just want to be sure that this is a good investment.
Hope I haven't totally confused everyone!!

 

[Tramp68]

Using your calculations of spending $1500 to rent every other year...

You could rent out your points for $1500 every other year which more than covers your maintenance costs for the 2 years so you are back to your 6 year break even point (actually 12 because of the every other year thing) and then you vacation for free for the next 24 years or 12 "free" trips for a savings of $18000...

or use the 150 points on your off disney years to have "free" vacations on your off year after 6 years...(you are spending $200 or so less every year than renting anyway)

 

[Tramp68]

Points for a room can increase(or decrease), BUT ONLY IF they decrease the cost for another room by the same amount..this has only been done once in 12 years (i think) and was a pretty insignificant change (+ or - 1 point if my memory is right) and was at OKW...

 

[calypso*a*go-go]

Don't forget that you could always sell your DVC contract and probably get your original investment back. You couldn't do that renting points.

 

[Beca]

Or, you could buy 75 points, and bank them every other year, to give you 150 pts every two years. Then, you just cut your cost "in half".



Beca

 

[murcor]

We are like you, have two young children and see many Disney trips in our future.

Ive also thought "why buy, when you can rent"

Considering that alot of trust & honesty with both parties is involved when renting points

Our reasons to buy: 1) The security to know that I own the points
2) I dont have to rely on others for my vacation

Good Luck deciding

Angela