Confused about best path?

[CraigInPA]

My wife and i, after waiting patiently for the Poly dvc to open up, found ourselves priced out. I.e., the payback period was wayyy too long. We've been going to the Poly every year for the past 6 years, and both of us stayed there with our parents as children in 1974. It's "our place". We normally come in the low seasons, early December or January or early February and stay for 10-12 days. We have no children; we are our own children.

Now we're sitting on a pile of cash earmarked to buy into dvc. But, what to do?

First thought was to buy at BLT, and be happy with that. Positives are obvious: monorail and location. We love the restaurants in the MK area, and normally have virtually all our dinners at them. Our cash pile could easily buy us enough points to stay there for 2 weeks if bought resale.

Then, I read a thread discussing buying a small (25 point) contract at the Poly, and then buying the rest of the points needed for the stay at another home resort, like SSR. This would work for us, cash wise, but... The way I understand it is that doing it this way would prevent me from booking before 7 months, because part of my points wouldn't be Poly home points. Is that correct?

Or, we could wait a few years for Poly resales to, perhaps, bring the price down.

The one option that is off the table is going for less than a week, in order to buy all Poly points.

At this point, I'm just so confused that I'm unable to really make any decision. I'd appreciate any advice from the collective experience here.

Thanks in advance,

Craig

 

[CKCruising]

I haven't read the other thread (25 points), but I see no benefit in having those points unless you wanted to book a stay under 50 points. At 7 months, they are the same as your SSR points at all resorts.

If you look at the resales at BLT, they seem to be over the $90 mark. When BLT opened, it was less than $110, so they haven't dropped much in 6 years. Is it worth waiting for Poly points to be available at resale? They won't be at SSR prices.

Right now the big unknown is how quickly the studios will book up. I would wait a year or so to get a better idea. If there are always rooms available at 7 months (like AKV, SSR, OKW), points anywhere work. If there is limited availability (especially when you want to go) you might need to buy here.

The bottom line is if you will not be happy anywhere but Poly, you will more than likely need to get your points here.

 

[cmrdgrs]

I have to agree with CKCruising on the 25 point PVB purchase. The only reason I could see buying at PVB would be to have access to the calendar and check availability, is that your logic? You also didn't say if you are currently a DVC member. I don't think you can buy a contract of only 25 points if you're not already a member.

As the PP said the booking patterns of PVB is currently a big unknown. Some DVC members are assuming because it is a fairly large resort with many studios it won't be impossible to book at the seven-month window. But nobody knows for sure.

I guess what I don't understand is if you have been going to Poly all these years and you think you will continue to go to Poly for many years in the future why you wouldn't by even if the breakeven point is far out? It seems to me that if Poly is the resort you love that maybe you should buy there. I guess I'm just not clear on your hesitation.

 

[Dean]

My wife and i, after waiting patiently for the Poly dvc to open up, found ourselves priced out. I.e., the payback period was wayyy too long. We've been going to the Poly every year for the past 6 years, and both of us stayed there with our parents as children in 1974. It's "our place". We normally come in the low seasons, early December or January or early February and stay for 10-12 days. We have no children; we are our own children.

Now we're sitting on a pile of cash earmarked to buy into dvc. But, what to do?

First thought was to buy at BLT, and be happy with that. Positives are obvious: monorail and location. We love the restaurants in the MK area, and normally have virtually all our dinners at them. Our cash pile could easily buy us enough points to stay there for 2 weeks if bought resale.

Then, I read a thread discussing buying a small (25 point) contract at the Poly, and then buying the rest of the points needed for the stay at another home resort, like SSR. This would work for us, cash wise, but... The way I understand it is that doing it this way would prevent me from booking before 7 months, because part of my points wouldn't be Poly home points. Is that correct?

Or, we could wait a few years for Poly resales to, perhaps, bring the price down.

The one option that is off the table is going for less than a week, in order to buy all Poly points.

At this point, I'm just so confused that I'm unable to really make any decision. I'd appreciate any advice from the collective experience here.

Thanks in advance,

Craig

I wouldn't buy just 25 points anywhere unless you're adding to an existing contract at the same resort or have a specific plan where that will work, it won't in your situation. You'll have to decide what's best for you. As I see it, it really comes down to the Poly in a studio vs BLT in a studio OR 1 BR as you've framed your preferences. Of course you could do both as a split stay or alternate the options. Given what you've posted and that you're set to pay cash regardless, I'd do one of 3 things assuming you've determined that DVC is for you and that you aren't too interested in staying at the other resort here and there. Buy either of those resorts or buy both for less points total. Another alternative is to buy one for some of your points and something cheaper for the rest, say SSR. Here are a few ideas with some representative info.

Buy the Poly with one fixed week and either a few more points or some BLT points or 2 fixed weeks. You're looking at around 130-160 points for a single studio if you do the one fixed week, double for 2. I'd do the fixed week even if the Sunday start day doesn't work for you and/or you don't plan on using it routinely.
Buy just BLT at around 150-200 points if you think you're OK with the studio or more in the 200-220 range if you're thinking 1 BR part of the time. You can always try to get in to the Poly with the BLT points, you should be successful at least part of the time with planning.
Buy SSR and try to get into both at times.
There are a number of in between options and variations.

Personally, and trying to put myself in your situation as you've described it, I'd likely do one fixed week studio (view type of preference) at the Poly then a resale at BLT of around 100-150 depending on studio vs 1 BR preferences. It'd be easier to buy BLT resale then add the Poly to it but we don't know how available the fixed weeks will be going forward. That assumes that the Sunday of the fixed week works as either the beginning or end of a trip from a Disney stay standpoint. If not, I'd consider a fixed week plus extra points or 2 fixed weeks at the Poly. Just realize that every time you use your Poly points somewhere else you're eroding some of the value/savings that you might otherwise see using them at the Poly. You're looking at a significant investment in terms of cash. Any where from roughly $35K for Poly only to $15K for SSR with many in between options. Then yearly $1200 or more, likely more.

 

[CraigInPA]

To answer the issue of why not just bite the bullet and buy Poly?

We figured out that we will be using this at most for 10 years, due to our age. Doing the math, break even point is about 8 trips, even assuming we can sell the points at $165 at the end of the 10 years. Its all about "time value of money" and maintenance fees versus the traditional cost of the hotel room at 35-40% off (yes, we regularly get 35-40% off).

We have another concern that's pushing us away from the poly. We went in 1974. While there have been changes since then (new long houses and such), the overall charm of the small resort with the Polynesian theme was a constant. The recent renovations, such as the lobby, are causing us to wonder if the poly will meet our nostalgic needs once its all done. We boycotted the poly this year because of the construction, but visited it when we were there recently, and didn't like what we saw.

We've stayed elsewhere on property, including carribean beach, pop century, contemporary, grand Floridian, and wilderness lodge. With our advancing age, we like the convenience of the monorail versus bus-only resorts. Thus our interest in BLT as an alternative to Poly.

Thanks for the clarification on the 25 point poly purchase. I couldn't understand the logic in the original post I read here, and you've confirmed my belief that it made no sense.

 

[Dean]

To answer the issue of why not just bite the bullet and buy Poly?

We figured out that we will be using this at most for 10 years, due to our age. Doing the math, break even point is about 8 trips, even assuming we can sell the points at $165 at the end of the 10 years. Its all about "time value of money" and maintenance fees versus the traditional cost of the hotel room at 35-40% off (yes, we regularly get 35-40% off).

We have another concern that's pushing us away from the poly. We went in 1974. While there have been changes since then (new long houses and such), the overall charm of the small resort with the Polynesian theme was a constant. The recent renovations, such as the lobby, are causing us to wonder if the poly will meet our nostalgic needs once its all done. We boycotted the poly this year because of the construction, but visited it when we were there recently, and didn't like what we saw.

We've stayed elsewhere on property, including carribean beach, pop century, contemporary, grand Floridian, and wilderness lodge. With our advancing age, we like the convenience of the monorail versus bus-only resorts. Thus our interest in BLT as an alternative to Poly.

Thanks for the clarification on the 25 point poly purchase. I couldn't understand the logic in the original post I read here, and you've confirmed my belief that it made no sense.

I wouldn't buy for just 10 yrs. I don't think there's any way you'll recoup the full price 10 yrs down the road. For a shorter time frame I'd likely not buy or buy less points and make do over that time. Maybe one week's worth of points or one fixed week and supplement with cash, off property or non DVC trips.

 

[Pirate Granny]

December and marathon week in January may be low point seasons...but high DVC seasons...buy where you want to stay especially if going in December. We are older too, but our kids are on our contracts and will enjoy them for years after we've gone....

 

[robinb]

December and marathon week in January may be low point seasons...but high DVC seasons...buy where you want to stay especially if going in December. We are older too, but our kids are on our contracts and will enjoy them for years after we've gone....

That is very true. You will need the 11-month window for Adventure Season in early December and in the first 2 weeks of January. It is a very popular time at DVC resorts.

 

[DizBub]

If I were you I would go ahead and buy what your money can get you at the Poly and add-on later as you can afford it or through resale.

Thought process is that you will be pre-paying for your Poly stays for years to come. Cash prices have got to be really hard to stomach for 10-12 days and they are only going up.

Buying resale elsewhere and hoping to get into the Poly at 7 months is a good strategy but could be iffy since the times you want to go are extremely popular DVC times. DVC is a totally different animal from cash stays.

 

[robinb]

If I were you I would go ahead and buy what your money can get you at the Poly and add-on later as you can afford it or through resale.

Thought process is that you will be pre-paying for your Poly stays for years to come. Cash prices have got to be really hard to stomach for 10-12 days and they are only going up.

Buying resale elsewhere and hoping to get into the Poly at 7 months is a good strategy but could be iffy since the times you want to go are extremely popular DVC times. DVC is a totally different animal from cash stays.

I was curious about how much the Polynesian has increased in the last 10 years. In 2005 rack rate for a garden view in early December was $304 per night. In 2015 it is $570 (adjusted for 5 week nights and 2 weekends). That's a $266 increase over 10 years or a 87.5% increase. Inflation has only been 23% over that same time.

 

[bumbershoot]

I guess what I don't understand is if you have been going to Poly all these years and you think you will continue to go to Poly for many years in the future why you wouldn't by even if the breakeven point is far out? It seems to me that if Poly is the resort you love that maybe you should buy there. I guess I'm just not clear on your hesitation.

I wonder that, too.

We figured out that we will be using this at most for 10 years, due to our age. Doing the math, break even point is about 8 trips, even assuming we can sell the points at $165 at the end of the 10 years.

But you'll continue to go there?

Why would you need to recoup so much when/if you sell it? If you don't buy and you just get rooms, you get nothing at the end. You've used your money and gotten something you value. Why not go with that idea for DVC, and if you resell it and get *something* at the end, that's a bonus?


Now, if you don't like what they've done to Poly, then THAT would be the reason to not buy in. Then there's no agita. You don't like it anymore, don't worry about it. Another reason would be if you love the normal rooms, but don't necessarily want a villa.

 

[johnsbelt]

My wife and i, after waiting patiently for the Poly dvc to open up, found ourselves priced out. I.e., the payback period was wayyy too long. We've been going to the Poly every year for the past 6 years, and both of us stayed there with our parents as children in 1974. It's "our place". We normally come in the low seasons, early December or January or early February and stay for 10-12 days. We have no children; we are our own children.

Now we're sitting on a pile of cash earmarked to buy into dvc. But, what to do?

First thought was to buy at BLT, and be happy with that. Positives are obvious: monorail and location. We love the restaurants in the MK area, and normally have virtually all our dinners at them. Our cash pile could easily buy us enough points to stay there for 2 weeks if bought resale.

Then, I read a thread discussing buying a small (25 point) contract at the Poly, and then buying the rest of the points needed for the stay at another home resort, like SSR. This would work for us, cash wise, but... The way I understand it is that doing it this way would prevent me from booking before 7 months, because part of my points wouldn't be Poly home points. Is that correct?

Or, we could wait a few years for Poly resales to, perhaps, bring the price down.

The one option that is off the table is going for less than a week, in order to buy all Poly points.

At this point, I'm just so confused that I'm unable to really make any decision. I'd appreciate any advice from the collective experience here.

Thanks in advance,

Craig

Craig,

One option I haven't seen yet is the one we took. We purchased a contract large enough to allow us to go every other year (banking and or borrowing). Once we had additional funds we added on another contract with the same use year. This way we have the points we want and both contracts operate as one since we have the same use year.

We went the resale route when we purchased BLT. The first contract was in 2010 in which we paid 100 per point (50 point contract and at that time the premium on small contracts weren't as great as they are today) and the second early last year for a 100 point contract in which I paid the same per point.

I have noticed that there hasn't been a huge dropoff in prices from the original price at BLT which was 90, I believe. When we purchased the first contract Disney was asking 130 direct and the second was about 160. What I'm getting at is that I don't believe you will save much money waiting and buying resale when the opportunity to purchase the resort when it first opens. If you look at the history of prices you will notice that the resale price is close to the original offering price from Disney. That seems to be especially true for the smaller resorts. I consider the Poly a smaller resort.

Good luck with your decision.

John

 

[CarolMN]

I'd wait for a while to see what happens at 7 months for the times you like to go.

Rent at least once to be sure the Poly villas are going to work for you.

I think mid- Jan to mid -Feb will be available at 7 months.

Bottom Line: No need to rush in.

Good luck!

 

[bellablue2]

i'd find a good blt contract on the resale market and buy it immediately. imo, buying blt is like money in the bank for the next 10 years.

 

[DenLo]

Craig,

One option I haven't seen yet is the one we took. We purchased a contract large enough to allow us to go every other year (banking and or borrowing). Once we had additional funds we added on another contract with the same use year. This way we have the points we want and both contracts operate as one since we have the same use year.

We went the resale route when we purchased BLT. The first contract was in 2010 in which we paid 100 per point (50 point contract and at that time the premium on small contracts weren't as great as they are today) and the second early last year for a 100 point contract in which I paid the same per point.

I have noticed that there hasn't been a huge dropoff in prices from the original price at BLT which was 90, I believe. When we purchased the first contract Disney was asking 130 direct and the second was about 160. What I'm getting at is that I don't believe you will save much money waiting and buying resale when the opportunity to purchase the resort when it first opens. If you look at the history of prices you will notice that the resale price is close to the original offering price from Disney. That seems to be especially true for the smaller resorts. I consider the Poly a smaller resort.

Good luck with your decision.

John

I think this might be the best method for the OP. It sounds like they can afford to pay quite a bit of cash each year for a Poly room (my eyes pop whenever I think of paying for 10-12 nights at the Poly annually even if it was a discounted room), so I would think they could save some money and buy more points later on the resale market at either BLT or PVB. Or they could buy BLT right now and hope to add on at PVB later.