It is my understanding that the holidays usually fill up, although not necessarily at the 11 month mark. Another plus in your favor is that Christmas next year is on a Thursday, which means you won't have to burn points on the weekend.
I don't know exactly what type of unit you are seeking, but remember that the resort is skewed heavily to 2 BR's, so studios and 1 BR's tend to fill up quickly.
Didn't have any problems getting in last year for Xmas and NY. I would suggest trying to call now and ask about availability for THIS YEAR, just to give you an idea. As you know, unfortunately you just won't know until next May, although you could book for $$$$ earlier and transfer later if a points booking is possible.