Chicken Little Box Office Estimate Thread

[Above_the_Rim]

From BoxOfficeProphets.com:
Chicken Little increased $700k with $11.4 million [on Friday]. Even factoring in the holiday [Veteran's Day], this is jaw-dropping in the current box office climate. Films just don't increase in week two any more, particularly ones that were huge on opening weekend. Disney just earned major bragging rights in their on-going semi-polite war with DreamWorks (and Pixar).

Personally, I'm shocked. Who woulda thunk this flick would be this big? Of course, Harry Potter looms next week.

Yeah while Friday was interesting, it was obviously down for saturday and sunday and the weekend total went down accordingly.The fact that Harry Potter is PG-13, it might not be actually much competition (on the other hand it could be a whole big WHAMO of competition.) But what will matter is how much money this movie makes in the long run, it still has yet to pass 100 million. It probably will pass it soon, but we'll have to see how far it goes beyond that. Dinosaur domestically made 136 million but many still see it as a failure. Also CL is doing bad in the foreign box office.

 

[perdidobay]

'Chicken Little' lays golden egg at box office By Dean Goodman
Sun Nov 13, 2:19 PM ET



LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - "Chicken Little" ruled the coop at the North American box office for a second weekend, earning almost as much as the three major new releases combined, according to studio estimates issued on Sunday.

Walt Disney Co.'s first home-grown computer-animated cartoon sold about $32 million worth of tickets in the three days beginning Friday, followed by the sci-fi adventure "Zathura" with $14 million, the thriller "Derailed" with $12.8 million, and rapper 50 Cent's gritty urban drama "Get Rich or Die Tryin"' with $12.5 million.

The top 10 films contained one other new entry, the period adaptation "Pride & Prejudice," which opened at No. 10 with $2.8 million from its limited release run.

"Chicken Little" lost just 20 percent of its audience from its bigger-than-expected launch the prior weekend, and its 10-day total rose to $80.8 million. Usually, big movies can expect to drop about 50 percent in their second weekend, although family movies often hold up better.

Disney said it hoped the movie will have banked about $90 million by the time the eagerly anticipated " Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire" sucks in every youngster next Friday.

"Chicken Little" revolves around the age-old tale of a chicken that thinks the sky is falling. In Disney's adaptation, no one believes the chicken (voiced by Zach Braff, star of the NBC sitcom "Scrubs") when he warns of a greater peril.

The three major newcomers mostly opened within their studios' expectations, although their ticket sales were relatively modest.


Copyright © 2005 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.

 

[Peter Pirate]

Wow 80M + after the second weekend...Looks a little better than some thought, eh?

Zathura sure didn't knock CL around much as was predicted as well.

Certainly Harry Pottor will put a damper on everything else for a few weeks but perhaps CL will hang around for awhile.

 

[raidermatt]

Certainly doing better than I thought it would... probably in the $150-$170 mil range?

Clearly not a bomb like Treasure Planet or Home on the Range.

Its just a matter of expectations and context.

 

[YoHo]

Sqwak, I agree with Matt, Sqwak.

 

[Above_the_Rim]

Certainly doing better than I thought it would... probably in the $150-$170 mil range?

Clearly not a bomb like Treasure Planet or Home on the Range.

Its just a matter of expectations and context.

I dont think it'll make up to 150 million, but it'll do better than
those other movies for sure, I also think though disney didnt' give their fullest in advertising those movies as they have done with CL. I would say it'd probably make about as much as Lilo and Stitch

 

[raidermatt]

I was just trying to project off the opening and where it's at now, and also taking into consideration the Thanksgiving weekend coming up.

If memory serves, L&S ended up around $136 mil.

 

[SoCalKDG]

Also CL is doing bad in the foreign box office.

Really, and where do you get this info? Its possible you may have looked at foreign box office totals and saw CL down the list. But you must not have noticed that CL has only been released in a 4-5 countries, with the most recent release in Poland where it was number one, even exceding all other movie totals combined.

It will be a couple months before we have a grasp on how CL will do in the foreign market place.

 

[crusader]

1: Last time I checked, it's the person putting the theorm out that must supply evidence. You have not done so, therefore your theory is baseless and should not be considered.

Fair enough - but be careful where you tread as I'm wondering what this says about yourself and a few others.

So in response, I managed to dig up the wsj article..............

Media & Marketing: Debut of `Chicken Little' Gives Disney Something to Crow OverMedia & Marketing:
By Merissa Marr
The Wall Street Journal
November 07, 2005

Delivering the first test of its animation revamp, Walt Disney Co.'s "Chicken Little" sold an estimated $40.1 million of tickets in theaters across North America in its opening weekend, an encouraging debut as Disney gets down to serious negotiations with Pixar Animation Studios.
Still, Disney has decided to slow down production of some of its animated titles, according to people familiar with the situation. "American Dog" has been pushed back to early summer 2008 to give it more space after "Meet the Robinsons," which is headed for a December 2006 release. Disney also is delaying "Rapunzel Unbraided" to early summer 2009 to give director Glen Keane more time to work on the story, the people said.

"None of our release dates is set in stone," said a Disney Studios spokeswoman, Heidi Trotta, who declined to comment further.

"Chicken Little," the tale of a young chicken who saves his town from aliens, is Disney's first fully computer-animated feature. Disney has a lot riding on the G-rated movie, not least because it aims to prove it can succeed in animation as it negotiates a new deal with Pixar. After a rash of harsh reviews, investors had been bracing for a modest debut, but Disney said the movie ended up drawing a broad audience that went beyond just families.

"This chicken has legs," said Chuck Viane, head of distribution at Disney's studio. He noted that the only other Disney animated movie to outdo "Chicken Little" was "The Lion King," which sold $40.9 million of ticket sales in its opening weekend in 1994.

Nevertheless, the opening was far below Pixar hits such as "The Incredibles," which hauled in $70 million of tickets sales in the same slot last year. The $40 million start put "Chicken Little" in the ballpark of second-tier hits, including DreamWorks Animation SKG Inc.'s "Shark Tale," which made a $48 million bow, and 20th Century Fox's "Robots," with a $36 million opening.

"This is an encouraging start for a film that investors had low expectations for," said Rich Greenfield, an analyst at Fulcrum Global Partners. "It's not conclusive, but it will at least dampen views that Disney needs to buy Pixar or that Pixar has greater leverage in their negotiations."

Disney dominated the hand-drawn animation business for many years but lost its lead when newcomers such as Pixar and DreamWorks arrived with a new style of computer-generated animation.

The misstep hit Disney especially hard because animation has traditionally played a key role in building franchises that can be spun off across the company. Disney made a deal to distribute Pixar's movies but recently decided to switch its own animation to the more popular computer-generated style.

Disney is negotiating to extend its deal with Pixar; that deal comes to an end next year with "Cars." A success in "Chicken Little" would not only give Disney's studio a much needed lift after a tough stretch but also give the company more leverage in those negotiations. The two companies are expected to make a decision in the next couple of months.

Disney's next solo project is "Meet the Robinsons," about a boy genius traveling forward in time. After that, "American Dog" had been earmarked for 2007, but Disney decided it wanted more time to polish the production, according to people familiar with the situation. Mr. Keane also wanted more time for " Rapunzel Unbraided," originally set for 2008.

 

[SoCalKDG]

I'm going with $35 million and $130 million(3D may clear 25 million), with worldwide at $250 million, & video another $85 million for a total of of $335 million(in todays market, this is what really counts).

OK, we are very close to the final numbers(overseas will gain another 10-15Mil as it still hasn't been released in all countries-including the U.K.) and Chicken Little has the following totals:

Opening: 40Mil
Domestic: 133 Mil
Overseas: 106 Mil(may go to 120 Mil)
Worldwide: 239 Mil(may go to 253 Mil)
Video: ???

 

[plutospup]

Thanks for the update! DD8 & I went to the movies today (Cheaper by the Dozen2). It got me to thinking about CL, and overall how it had done.

 

[DisneyKidds]

Box office wise I don't think the numbers are too surprising. What was a little surprising to me, and I'm not sure if this provides an indication of industry (particularly theatres) confidence in Disney movies nowadays, is the fact that I couldn't find CL in a theatre near me over the Christmas holiday period.

We hadn't had a chance to see the movie around opening. Getting ready for Christmas we didn't have any free weekends leading up to Christmas. I would have liked to have taken the kids sometime during their Christmas break.........but the movie couldn't be found in any of the three theatre complexes (representing more than 25 screens) that are within 15 minutes of our house - and that includes the $2.99 place that shows movies after they have been out for a month or two and are no longer considered first run.

That highlights a potentially troubling aspect of tha fall of Disney Feature Animation. How long will it be, if it ever happens, before there is enough confidence in Disney features that theatres will let them run a little longer. I'd bet anything that CL's numbers could have been higher if theatres had more confidence and didn't give the flick an early hook.

 

[Chief Joseph]

Two months after CL opened it was still on over 800 screens. How many screens should it have been on to be considered a success ?

 

[DisneyKidds]

Two months after CL opened it was still on over 800 screens. How many screens should it have been on to be considered a success ?

Don't know. You seem to have the number of screens info.......how many screens were Lion King, Little Mermaid and Beauty and the Beast playing on after two months......how about Nemo or The Incredibles? I could certainly find any of those in the theatre two months after opening. Sure, I don't think anyone realistically expected CL to rival those other animated features, but for Disney's next big, entry-into-CGI, feature I would have hoped for a little more. By most measures I think CL did OK, but not great. I think it was moderately successful, but that doesn't mean it couldn't have done a little more.

For all I know it means nothing, but it's not like, at 60 miles north of Manhatten, I live in Podunk, and it just surprised me that the film couldn't be found. To me it says the theatres felt other films were better box office bets........and I don't recall that many great films coming out.

 

[Chief Joseph]

Relax, you're reading more into my post then was intended.

By comparison, Incredibles, which had an almost identical opening date, was in 1700 theaters during the Christmas break. But also take a look at the latest HP movie. After approx 8 weeks, it's dropping to less than 1000 screens.

Had CL done Incredible type BO numbers, maybe it would have been on more screens. But it was also up against another Disney flik - Narnia as well as Kong. The distributor has a lot of say when it comes to how long & how many screens a movie will stay on. It's possible Disney opted for max Narnia exposure at the expense of CL.

Or of course it all means nothing more than CL just ran out of gas because it was an average movie.

PS: 95% of New York state is Podunk (kidding).

 

[DisneyKidds]

Relax, you're reading more into my post then was intended..... (snip).....of course it all means nothing more than CL just ran out of gas because it was an average movie.

If I weren't already relaxed I'd take that advice under consideration . Really, that was an honest question, and it does seem you have the number of screens info.....thanks for that.

It seems we agree. CL was somewhat successful........for an average movie. I certailnly wouldn't call it a failure, nor a home run.

PS: 95% of New York state is Podunk (kidding).

Ahh.....a trouble maker, I see. New guy trouble maker......or are you?

 

[wilki32]

Just to say that you talk of CL in the past tense, it hasn't opened in most of Europe. Doesn't open in the UK til the 6th Feb.
Not sure how much that will change the overall figures but the advertising juggernaut is picking up steam over here.

 

[Chief Joseph]

That's interesting news wilki. BOMOJO shows CL has done 100+ mil overseas.

 

[wilki32]

Big adverts at Disneyland Paris outside their Studios, maybe wrong but don't think its been released in France but definately not released in the UK.
Would that make a substantial diiference overall?

 

[Chief Joseph]

I doubt CL will do anything in France as I believe they'd interprete any movie coming from America titled Chicken Little as a documentary on their military.

As for the UK ? Well, you'd be a better judge on that then I would. Is it a movie that is being highly anticipated ?