Chicken Little Box Office Estimate Thread

[wilki32]

Being English I couldn't possibly make any comments about our lovely French neighbours
In the UK there are adverts on the Disney channel and in the cinemas but I wouldn't say eagerly awaited. But hey we're British!
I don't think we'll see the same sort of figures as Harry Potter and Narnia though.

 

[All Aboard]

So, does a Disney Company that is satisfied with the performance of Chicken Little purchase Pixar, put Jobs on the Board and make Lasseter the head of the studio?

 

[YoHo]

l.o.l.

 

[crusader]

So, does a Disney Company that is satisfied with the performance of Chicken Little purchase Pixar, put Jobs on the Board and make Lasseter the head of the studio?

Well if Chicken Little is responsible for Disney wiping out one of their main competitors, I'd say that's a pretty satisfactory result.

 

[Bstanley]

Well if Chicken Little is responsible for Disney wiping out one of their main competitors, I'd say that's a pretty satisfactory result.

Hopefully what you meant to say was more like:

"Well if Chicken Little is responsible for Disney bringing in their most successful competitor to reinvigorate their entire business, I'd say that's a pretty satisfactory result."

If Pixar were to be wiped out it wouldn't help Disney one iota - and it would make millions of people's lives incrementally less magic.

 

[crusader]

man, you people are tough.

And here, I thought we were talking about an acquisition disguised as a pooling of interest.

Is the company name changing?

 

[All Aboard]

No, the company name isn't changing. And, I feel really good about this transaction. I have faith (perhaps blind) that Lasseter will breath new life into DFA. And, that the "suits" will be more hands off in the process.

But, I really believe that the lack of blockbuster success of Chicken Little pulled any new distribution deal bargaining power out of Disney's quiver. Disney didn't have the confidence that they could be a competitive player in feature animation any longer and went in a different direction. If you can't beat 'em, buy 'em.

Now, let's hope that Lasseter rekindles hand drawn feature animation. I really believe there is a home (and market) for both.

 

[raidermatt]

But, I really believe that the lack of blockbuster success of Chicken Little pulled any new distribution deal bargaining power out of Disney's quiver.

Of course it did. There is no doubt that this deal was driven by Disney's need for animated content, combined with its inability to create it internally. Really, if Disney could simply choose between what they've done, and spending, say, $1 billion to have built (or maintained) its own internal animated powerhouse, it would be a no-brainer.

You're also right that it could still work out, if Disney really is taking the humble route and is looking to learn from Pixar.

Well if Chicken Little is responsible for Disney wiping out one of their main competitors, I'd say that's a pretty satisfactory result.

Your're kidding right? So if they fail with future releases, that will be satisfactory because they will then have to go out and buy Dreamworks?

The company name is not relevant. NationsBank tookover Bank of America (disguised as a merger) and kept the BofA name while taking the majority of the board and moving the headquarters to Charlotte.

The difference here of course, is that Disney has to allow its animation unit to be taken over. Its pretty clear that in this case, Pixar is running animation, at least based on the structure. If that is not the case, and Disney really is just "wiping out the competition", then that's unfortunate in many ways.

 

[crusader]

There's a market, and if the reports are accurate it will be on Lasseter's agenda. But I seriously doubt we'll see it in Feature Film any time soon.

But, I really believe that the lack of blockbuster success of Chicken Little pulled any new distribution deal bargaining power out of Disney's quiver.

It's not that simple. Pixar's bargaining power was gradually waning as a result of several key variables............ the Incredibles performed below Nemo; the unprecedented success of Shrek 2, and Chicken Little opened to hold the number one spot for two consecutive weeks to name a few.

I have mixed feelings about this whole deal. I think Iger did well to kill two birds with one stone here. Pixar on the other hand, knows their company no longer exists.

I don't really view Lasseter's role as breathing new life into DFA. I view it as instrumental in successfully integrating Pixar's personnel to emerge as the newly employed Feature Animation Division of the Walt Disney Company.

 

[crusader]

The company name is not relevant

Really. That's very interesting.

You honestly believe that a name has no relevance in the Arts and Entertainment industy?

 

[raidermatt]

If Pixar's bargaining power was waning, Disney's was plummeting. Its all relative, and quite simply, Disney doesn't make this deal, putting Jobs on the board, unless it had to.

 

[crusader]

Putting Jobs on the board would be a standard gesture. I wouldn't equate it as proof that Disney had to buy this company.

They didn't.

The only reason Disney made this deal is because Jobs decided to liquidate Pixar.

 

[raidermatt]

That's ridiculous. Yes, Jobs decision to sell was a critical path, but Disney had to want to buy or it wouldn't matter what Jobs wanted.

Yes, they did have to make the deal. They need Pixar's content because they haven't been able to do it on their own, and the only distribution deal they could get would have been a tenth as lucrative as the current deal. The Street would not have been happy with a breakup and it would have put Iger's job in jeopardy.

Disney's hand was forced because they couldn't produce animated hits on a level that would allow them to take advantage of their "synergistic" opportunities. Yes CL made some money, but nobody is clamoring for a theme park ride, or eagerly anticipating the next 3 DTV sequels and TV show. CL plush is not flying off the shelves. Yeah, there'll be some follow-up stuff, but its nothing compared to the franchises they can build with the hits Pixar has been producing, and I'm sure Disney is counting on them to continue to produce.

Disney had to maintain the relationship, but couldn't get what it needed from a new distribution deal, and would have had to give up some ownership of the past properties as well. For all practical purposes, that left a purchase as their only viable option.

 

[YoHo]

Crusader, you are the wind beneath my wings. I truely needed a laugh today and you're spin has made my day.

 

[DancingBear]

Crusader, I seem to recall you arguing that Dreamworks had played Jobs and Pixar. Now that Jobs has $3.2 billion Disney Dollars in his pocket and a seat on the board, and Catmull and Lasseter have sweet jobs, do you care to reconsider?

 

[airlarry!]

It's a moving target.

We can criticize Ei$ner, and we're wrong, right up to the day he's booted out.

We can criticize Strategic Planning, and we're wrong, right up to the day they are dismantled.

We can call for Paul Pre$$ler's head, and we're idiots that make picayune remarks about light bulbs and shuttered attractions, and we're wrong right up until the point where he's shuttled off to The Gap wasteland.

We can scream about Cynthia's shock troops wasting money instead of enriching the guests experience, and we're morons right up until she and T Irby are quietly moved aside.

We can bemoan the Ei$nerian principle of building parks small and cheap, and we don't know anything about running a successful business, right up until the day DCA, AK, DLP-S, and HKDL fall flat on their faces.

We can cry about the loss of DFA, and we're dummies, because CGI is all the rage, right up until Pixar says our success is based on story not megabytes and Disney shuts down The Secret Lab.

We can wish for DFA to emulate Pixar (which is emulating the Golden Age of DFA), and we don't know what we're talking about, because Dreamworks is kicking Pixar's **** and Disney will kick Pixar's butt and Disney doesn't need Pixar, right up until the day Dreamworks bombs and Pixar is purchased by Disney.

We can argue that a guys like Lassiter should be given the chance to wake up the moribund DFA and WDI, and they say our heads in the clouds, right up until the day Catmull and Lassiter are given shiny new doorplates with a mouse's magic wand on them.

Man, it sure is hard to hit a moving target.

But the truth is out there....in the archives...

 

[YoHo]

Some of the Terms of the Pixar Deal.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11048680/
Anyone who reads that and still thinks Disney had any leverage in the negotiations is .......

I can't say, it violates the terms of use.

 

[crusader]

Yes, they did have to make the deal.

No they didn't.

It's funny how you seem to pose this argument after the fact. I've never read once in any past assessment of yours or several others now coming forward, that an aquisition of Pixar was the deal Disney had to do to save animation.

which leads me to this -

Man, it sure is hard to hit a moving target.

But the truth is out there....in the archives...

my thoughts exactly.

Crusader, I seem to recall you arguing that Dreamworks had played Jobs and Pixar. Now that Jobs has $3.2 billion Disney Dollars in his pocket and a seat on the board, and Catmull and Lasseter have sweet jobs, do you care to reconsider?

Does he? What happened to all Pixar's cash on the books? But in answer to your question, I'll pose a rhetorical - why do you think he cashed out? He'd been shopping for a distribution deal for three years. All of sudden - Katz and Spielberg pull a major financial power play in Hollywood and coincidentally Pixar puts a for sale sign up.

This company has never been Steve Jobs' baby.

Anyone who reads that and still thinks Disney had any leverage in the negotiations is .......

Both sides have leverage. You should shop around for a more relevant source to expose the intricate synergy being spun-off and what the strategic plan may really be.

here - http://www.appleinsider.com/article.php?id=1489

 

[DancingBear]

Crusader, the argument isn't that acquiring Pixar was the only way Disney could resuscitate its Feature Animation division. With plenty of effort and money, changing attitudes and the passage of time it's certainly possible that Iger (if he had the desire) could have attracted and developed the talent necessary to build back Disney's animation reputation.

The argument, rather, is that Disney had gotten itself into a situation such that the Street was forcing Iger's hand. Iger needed to get at least a distribution deal with Pixar, or he likely would not have the time to do anything at Disney, let alone the multi-year project which turning around the animation division would be.

Disney needed Pixar a lot more than Pixar needed Disney. The worst thing Pixar was going to get was a "George Lucas-type distribution deal" (read your own source). That ain't bad.

Faced with that prospect, Iger was forced to consider the acquisition, and paying big bucks for it.

I've never understood how you think Dreamworks was so far ahead of the game, and forced Jobs' hand. Dreamworks SKG (live action films) was sold to Paramount/Viacom for $1.6 billion. In connection with that deal, DWA (whose stock price has been flat, and has a market cap of less than $2.8 billion and a P/E of under 12) got a distribution deal with Paramount. That took Paramount off the table for Pixar, but freed up Universal as a possible distributor.

You also thought it was significant that one of Dreamworks' founders was left in charge of DWA.

Meanwhile, Pixar just got sold for $6.4 billion, net of Pixar's cash (please note,the figure I gave above for what Jobs received is net of that cash), with a P/E of 40, leaving Jobs on the Disney board, Catmull in charge of Pixar AND Disney Feature Animation, Lasseter with greenlight authority over all Disney animation, and Pixar continuing to operate out of its current HQ with just "Pixar" (not "Disney") on the front gate.

And Jobs got played again how?

The timing has nothing to do with Dreamworks, and everything to do with Iger taking over the Company and responding to the demands of the Street.

As far as shopping for sources, in addition to reading many news stories and analyses, I listed to the investor's conference call announcing the merger, and I've read the merger agreement, Jobs' voting agreement, and the Board policies which Pixar dictated.

 

[crusader]

Crusader, the argument isn't that acquiring Pixar was the only way Disney could resuscitate its Feature Animation division. With plenty of effort and money, changing attitudes and the passage of time it's certainly possible that Iger (if he had the desire) could have attracted and developed the talent necessary to build back Disney's animation reputation

I don't believe I mis-read Matt's post. However, I couldn't agree more.

The argument, rather, is that Disney had gotten itself into a situation such that the Street was forcing Iger's hand. Iger needed to get at least a distribution deal with Pixar, or he likely would not have the time to do anything at Disney, let alone the multi-year project which turning around the animation division would be.

The Street was not forcing Disney's hand. They lack credibility to begin with. Yes, they wanted to see a distribution deal. But analysts are the worst offenders in contradiction. Many felt Pixar had to come crawling back to Disney because they failed in their attempts to negotiate any other distribution deal. Merrill Lynch et al have been historically against any Disney/Pixar aquisition deal due to the inflated pricetag, yet now appear to be in favor of it. As long as their pockets get lined they'll play ball.

I've never understood how you think Dreamworks was so far ahead of the game, and forced Jobs' hand.

Dreamworks founders have tremendous influence in Hollywood. They used it. Universal was never in any serious talks with Jobs - and they didn't become a player in December despite what you may think.

My connection has to do with money, greed and ego. When one collects a billion, another has to collect 2 billion. I believe Jobs failure to secure a Lucas deal with another studio had an impact on his ego. Then Shrek 2 makes more money for Dreamworks than any of Pixar's films and The Incredibles not only performs below Nemo its' DVD sales are lagging behind.

Then the ultimate. Spielberg cashes out in a big way. Jobs had nothing at that point. He had a bil in cash, no film library, and an expiring distribution deal.

You keep trying to analyze this from a financial perspective without regard for Hollywood. And my point is Hollywood played him. This sale is his way of answering back.