CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[RamblingMad]

I get the feeling that she's asking the residents of Michigan to take responsibility. I didn't get the impression that she's going to put any new restrictions in place. It'll just cause protests...etc. We're beyond the "new restrictions" phase here in the good ole' US of A.

I’m watching MI. I don’t see how you can ride this out with some hospital ICUs filling up.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I’m watching MI. I don’t see how you can ride this out with some hospital ICUs filling up.

That's a good point, but like Colleen27 said, who lives there....the places with the big issues already have mask mandates and some restrictions in place. I don't know where the ICUs are nearly full, but I'm betting more in those areas with restrictions.

 

[Riddlepilot]

I think my biggest question is why? A little over a month ago we were being told that Texas better stock up on body bags, but here we are over a month later and Texas's numbers are still down, and out of the 5 states that are surging four are states that did it right. I know the variants are being blamed, but wouldn't those variants burn even faster through states that are wide open?

 

[Joe in VA]

Lockdowns have little effect, especially in the way they are handled in the US. IMHO, Michigan shutting down would lead to more risky indoor activities in peoples homes. Similar to prohibition, the government mandating certain behaviors illegal will often lead to a less than optimal result.

 

[RamblingMad]

I think my biggest question is why? A little over a month ago we were being told that Texas better stock up on body bags, but here we are over a month later and Texas's numbers are still down, and out of the 5 states that are surging four are states that did it right. I know the variants are being blamed, but wouldn't those variants burn even faster through states that are wide open?

My best guess is the UK variant and proximity to Canada.

TX isn’t looking good by the OK border.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Well...to a point. Once we hit the point where the vaccine is available to everyone 16+.....if appointments are still open at that time, we're likely hitting the "hesitancy wall"....which we always knew would happen. Some people want to wait awhile and see how things go. Others just won't take it...etc. I did read that we hit 4.5 million shots on Saturday, a new record.

Nothing changes after vaccination... masking, distancing, etc. Many are asking why take the jab? Others are still afraid of it. I am still concerned that not enough will choose the vax. Messaging is really bad. JMO

 

[mom2rtk]

Nothing changes after vaccination... masking, distancing, etc. Many are asking why take the jab? Others are still afraid of it. I am still concerned that not enough will choose the vax. Messaging is really bad. JMO

Exactly that. The problem of this messaging could reveal itself very soon.

 

[Colleen27]

What is driving the numbers in MI? I know the B117 variant is the majority of the cases, but why is it hitting MI so hard? Are they not getting enough vaccines?

The variant and people letting down their guard now that their most-vulnerable loved ones are vaccinated, plus the natural impact of winter habits moving all socialization, dining, sports, etc. indoors. And we've had more school/sport related clusters than at any previous phase of the pandemic. We got through HS football season without many sport-related outbreaks and I think people were seriously underestimating how much worse basketball is in terms of facilitating contagion. The indoor/outdoor difference still isn't getting talked about nearly enough IMO.

The hospitalization rates are back to fall level with more younger people being hospitalized. This isn’t good. I have family there.

Back to and in some cases above fall level in numbers, but not severity, at least so far. Many occupied beds but fewer of them in ICUs and fewer needing ventilators. So at this point, it is a strain but not as dire as in our fall surge.

I think my biggest question is why? A little over a month ago we were being told that Texas better stock up on body bags, but here we are over a month later and Texas's numbers are still down, and out of the 5 states that are surging four are states that did it right. I know the variants are being blamed, but wouldn't those variants burn even faster through states that are wide open?

Part of it is that we did it so much better for the first year, which means we had a LOT more people walking around with no immunity whatsoever when the more contagious variants started spreading. Even though natural immunity appears to be imperfect and perhaps shorter lived than vaccine-induced immunity, it does offer a large degree of protection when compared to no immunity at all. In Feb, Michigan was 44th of 50 states in cumulative case rates with 30-40% fewer cases per million than states like Texas and the Dakotas. So we were essentially in the same place this March when the variants started spreading as we were last March when the novel virus started spreading for the first time, with the vast majority of people having absolutely no immunity at all.

My best guess is the UK variant and proximity to Canada.

TX isn’t looking good by the OK border.

It is amazing how little people think about the proximity to Canada as a factor (and Ontario's proximity to us as a factor in their case trends). I just read an article in one of my news apps that was from the LA Times, talking about MI vs. CA trends, and it mentioned and then dismissed as probably not being much of a factor because "the border is closed". Yes, the border is closed... but only to non-essential travel. MDOT figures indicate a 35-40% reduction in volume at our major crossings. The other 60-65% is essential and still flowing, which is a lot of opportunity for the virus to hitch a ride. But the economies of neighbor cities like Detroit & Windsor are so interconnected that there's no way to actually close the border. My kids have had Canadian classmates, my mom had Canadian coworkers when she worked in Detroit, my husband's plant sends parts to assembly facilities in Canada, etc. So even with the border ostensibly closed, our covid destinies are very much intertwined.

 

[tarheelmjfan]

Nothing changes after vaccination... masking, distancing, etc. Many are asking why take the jab? Others are still afraid of it. I am still concerned that not enough will choose the vax. Messaging is really bad. JMO

Anyone who wanted to get the vaccine, wouldn't let the need to still wear a mask, socially distance, etc. stop them. It's just a convenient excuse for those who had no intention of getting the vaccine in the first place.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

But, opening up a new eligibility group does not explain entirely your idea. Since we (CA) were all open to 50+ for a couple weeks now, one would expect the appointments would still be full. That age group makes up close to 20% of the 16+ yo population here, or close to 6 million people.
So far, 8 million have been fully vaccinated in total in CA.
For reference, about 22 million people have been eligible between everyone in Phase 1 and 50+, not including however many 16+ who were eligible since last week. If even just 1/3 of the 16 to 50 years old group are eligible now, that’s at least 6 million more. Give or take some.
In total, with at the very least 28 million eligible so far, we shouldn’t have any vaccination openings if (lack of) demand wasn’t a factor.

Yes and no. We actually have almost 9 million fully vaccinated today, with another 6.3 million partially vaccinated. Eligibility for 50+ only opened up on the 1st, so none of those people will have have time to get their second dose. Except for those who got J&J (and we know how that's gone in CA), we can't expect to see that age group in the fully vaccinated for at least another week or two. So for now, it's important to add the two numbers together. 16+ becomes eligible on Thursday.

That said, there are definitely areas of the state with extreme vaccine hesitancy.

 

[Riddlepilot]

The variant and people letting down their guard now that their most-vulnerable loved ones are vaccinated, plus the natural impact of winter habits moving all socialization, dining, sports, etc. indoors. And we've had more school/sport related clusters than at any previous phase of the pandemic. We got through HS football season without many sport-related outbreaks and I think people were seriously underestimating how much worse basketball is in terms of facilitating contagion. The indoor/outdoor difference still isn't getting talked about nearly enough IMO.



Back to and in some cases above fall level in numbers, but not severity, at least so far. Many occupied beds but fewer of them in ICUs and fewer needing ventilators. So at this point, it is a strain but not as dire as in our fall surge.



Part of it is that we did it so much better for the first year, which means we had a LOT more people walking around with no immunity whatsoever when the more contagious variants started spreading. Even though natural immunity appears to be imperfect and perhaps shorter lived than vaccine-induced immunity, it does offer a large degree of protection when compared to no immunity at all. In Feb, Michigan was 44th of 50 states in cumulative case rates with 30-40% fewer cases per million than states like Texas and the Dakotas. So we were essentially in the same place this March when the variants started spreading as we were last March when the novel virus started spreading for the first time, with the vast majority of people having absolutely no immunity at all.



It is amazing how little people think about the proximity to Canada as a factor (and Ontario's proximity to us as a factor in their case trends). I just read an article in one of my news apps that was from the LA Times, talking about MI vs. CA trends, and it mentioned and then dismissed as probably not being much of a factor because "the border is closed". Yes, the border is closed... but only to non-essential travel. MDOT figures indicate a 35-40% reduction in volume at our major crossings. The other 60-65% is essential and still flowing, which is a lot of opportunity for the virus to hitch a ride. But the economies of neighbor cities like Detroit & Windsor are so interconnected that there's no way to actually close the border. My kids have had Canadian classmates, my mom had Canadian coworkers when she worked in Detroit, my husband's plant sends parts to assembly facilities in Canada, etc. So even with the border ostensibly closed, our covid destinies are very much intertwined.

I've seen you post this before, and in my opinion it's a pretty good hypothesis. It will be interesting to see once this is over and numbers are crunched and policies are examined if "lockdowns" really helped, or just delayed the inevitable surge. As far as Canada, I could buy that a lot easier if Canada was eaten up with covid, but if anything I would think the US is driving up their numbers.

 

[mom2rtk]

Anyone who wanted to get the vaccine, wouldn't let the need to still wear a mask, socially distance, etc. stop them. It's just a convenient excuse for those who had no intention of getting the vaccine.

Sure they will. Lots of people are sitting on the fence and can easily be swayed one way or the other. The ones being vaccinated right now are highly motivated. But soon we'll be down to those who could go either way. Seeing an impending personal benefit could make the difference.

 

[tarheelmjfan]

Sure they will. Lots of people are sitting on the fence and can easily be swayed one way or the other. The ones being vaccinated right now are highly motivated. But soon we'll be down to those who could go either way. Seeing an impending personal benefit could make the difference.

The personal benefit is that you're less likely to get Covid. At this point, the argument that they would have to still wear masks, socially distance, etc. is becoming moot in most of the country. Anyone who uses that argument in a red state is definitely being disingenuous.

 

[mom2rtk]

The personal benefit is that you're less likely to get Covid. At this point, the argument that they would have to still wear masks, socially distance, etc. is becoming moot in most of the country. Anyone who uses that argument in a red state is definitely being disingenuous.

If you say so. I mean, I'm already vaccinated and so is everyone important to me. But I'm still pretty sure they'd get more takers if they approached this from a standpoint of maximum personal benefit. Yes, decreased Covid risk is important. But it's also more intangible than suggesting things like not wearing masks and getting to do things that have been off limits for over a year. Yes those issues are becoming moot in some areas, but even in my red state, which has not had a mask mandate since this started, the major metropolitan areas have had one all along. So I don't get your "disingenuous" comment at all.

 

[Colleen27]

Sure they will. Lots of people are sitting on the fence and can easily be swayed one way or the other. The ones being vaccinated right now are highly motivated. But soon we'll be down to those who could go either way. Seeing an impending personal benefit could make the difference.

Exactly. Those on either extreme aren't going to be swayed, but for those in the middle, the "what's in it for me" really does make a difference. I'm in a private travel loop via email with a group of women I have been friends with online for more years than I'd care to count. A couple of our members were hesitant about the vaccine but chose to get it as cruise lines started making it a requirement for when cruising resumes. A friend of mine just posted on FB that her employer has started allowing them to be unmasked when stationary in their own cubicles once they're fully vaccinated, and that several of her coworkers decided that made the hassle of getting an appointment worthwhile. I was initially a little leery and thinking in a sort of wait-and-see posture, but the inevitability of needing it for international travel tipped the scales in favor of getting it now when they're trying to make it as easy as possible to do so. Yes, being less likely to get covid is a benefit... but people are generally pretty bad at evaluating risk, and having a more concrete set of benefits can only improve willingness to get vaccinated. Especially among those who consider their personal covid risk to be low to negligible (ie, the young people who are always a challenge to reach with public health campaigns).

 

[tarheelmjfan]

If you say so. I mean, I'm already vaccinated and so is everyone important to me. But I'm still pretty sure they'd get more takers if they approached this from a standpoint of maximum personal benefit. Yes, decreased Covid risk is important. But it's also more intangible than suggesting things like not wearing masks and getting to do things that have been off limits for over a year. Yes those issues are becoming moot in some areas, but even in my red state, which has not had a mask mandate since this started, the major metropolitan areas have had one all along. So I don't get your "disingenuous" comment at all.

There's no doubt more people would have been willing to wear masks, if they had stressed the benefit to the wearer in the beginning rather than trying to convince people to do the right thing for others. To me, that's the major mistake they made. Too many people only care about themself. In my real life, the people who say there's no need to get the vaccine, if you still have to wear a mask, both resisted wearing a mask from the beginning & didn't plan to get the vaccine in the first place. I've noticed the same trend on the social media sites I read. Their reasoning for not getting the vaccine has changed from conspiracy theories that many people have called them out on to saying there's no point, if they still have to wear a mask.

ETA: As far as the people on the fence, the biggest motivator I've seen is peer pressure. I know a few people who believed the conspiracy theories & refused to get the vaccine. When relatives told them they didn't feel comfortable with them traveling to visit them, if they weren't fully vaccinated, they changed their mind.

 

[Colleen27]

More from Michigan, including a less-than-flattering look at my area (the Thumb): https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-h...ine-declines-parts-michigan-even-covid-surges

On the bright side, though, Wayne Co./Detroit hit almost 100K first-doses last week. That's a nice clip for the most populous part of the state, and when you add in the rest of the metro, they're vaccinating close to a quarter million people a week.

 

[jlwhitney]

The personal benefit is that you're less likely to get Covid. At this point, the argument that they would have to still wear masks, socially distance, etc. is becoming moot in most of the country. Anyone who uses that argument in a red state is definitely being disingenuous.

There are alot of people that aren't personally concerned with getting covid or who already had it, who are now not interested since to them nothing changes to them. So yes it is valid for a lot of people, not everyone.

 

[mom2rtk]

There's no doubt more people would have been willing to wear masks, if they had stressed the benefit to the wearer in the beginning rather than trying to convince people to do the right thing for others. To me, that's the major mistake they made. Too many people only care about themself. In my real life, the people who say there's no need to get the vaccine, if you still have to wear a mask, both resisted wearing a mask from the beginning & didn't plan to get the vaccine in the first place. I've noticed the same trend on the social media sites I read. Their reasoning for not getting the vaccine has changed from conspiracy theories that many people have called them out on to saying there's no point, if they still have to wear a mask.

ETA: As far as the people on the fence, the biggest motivator I've seen is peer pressure. I know a few people who believed the conspiracy theories & refused to get the vaccine. When relatives told them they didn't feel comfortable with them traveling to visit them, if they weren't fully vaccinated, they changed their mind.

To the bolded: Sure. But you can't change that in time to help us hit herd immunity. You have to work with what you've got.

And I agree peer pressure is critical, and a great motivator. But we need an "all of the above" approach to pushing this across the finish line.

I still contend saying "get the vaccine, but keep doing everything the same" was a mistake from the get go. The vaccine needs to be portrayed very clearly as the key to getting back to normal. And nobody wants to even hint that we can get back to normal.

 

[tarheelmjfan]

There are alot of people that aren't personally concerned with getting covid or who already had it, who are now not interested since to them nothing changes to them. So yes it is valid for a lot of people, not everyone.

You've said from the beginning that people in your area generally don't wear masks. Nothing would change for them regardless. Situations like that are what I meant, when I said for those people using the need to still wear a mask is disingenuous.