CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Bianca and Bernard]

Hopefully we’re not already hitting the vaccination acceptance wall in Florida. Every CVS in the Tampa area seems to be wide open with appointments all week.

Clay County has had open appointments all week at their site, plus their walk-up booth at the Clay Fair was not consistently busy. When DS was up for his first appointment on Tuesday, it was almost empty...only 4 other people there besides us; and then 6 or 7 that showed for the 2nd shots (they were in the 2nd shot line, so I am assuming that was what they needed) while we filled out paperwork. The 4 that were there were all young...one 16 or 17 (I'm assuming as they had a parent teaching them how to fill out the paperwork) and the others all looked 18-20. The 2nd shotters were all older, or looked older anyways, than me.

 

[DLgal]

I just read that Pfizer is seeking an AMENDMENT to their EUA to add the 12-15 age group, since the dosing is the same. This should take significantly less time than the original EUA approval took. Hoping to get this age group going before the end of the month!

 

[godisney14]

Yeah, but you keep comparing MI in March to the UK in Dec., when they imposed their current lockdown. The difference in vaccination rates alone should dictate that the two have very different experiences with the variants, unless there's a significant difference in effectiveness after all.

BTW, some counties in Michigan are close to that 60% mark and still surging. We're up north this weekend in a county with a 58/39% vaccination rate. Their cases are in line with the state average at around 60 per 100K and concerns about local hospital capacity was the lead story on the local news yesterday morning.

Time will tell.

As of yesterday, ~44% of all new cases in the US were occurring in just 5 states: MI, NY, NJ, PA, and FL. With B.1.1.7 variant being the dominant strain in the US, we should be getting better idea of how Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J vaccines work in the general population with a much more diverse pool.
Also, the number of B.1.351 and P.1, while both still under 1,000 cases in the US, is following a nice curve similar to 2^x.

 

[Colleen27]

This is the data I'm looking at. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

I don't see any counties over 40% at the total population level. Most are 20-30% following the national average.

The US is good 30% behind the UK right now for first dose.

NYT is using CDC data, so there are several layers of reporting delays before the data gets to their tracker.

This site pulls directly from state figures and is more up-to-date: https://infogram.com/whos-getting-vaccines-1h1749vv7v8ql6z

Full data dashboard: https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-coronavirus-dashboard-vaccines-cases-deaths-and-maps

 

[Joe in VA]

Got second dose yesterday and felt literally nothing more than a slightly sore arm 30 hours later. Ready to dump my mask, and luckily in Florida I barely have to wear it any longer. Vax is widely available to everyone in FL, so I don’t feel the need to wear it any longer. I’ll give it another month or so until everyone who wants it has the chance to be fully vaccinated, but after that I won’t wear one.

 

[RamblingMad]

NYT is using CDC data, so there are several layers of reporting delays before the data gets to their tracker.

This site pulls directly from state figures and is more up-to-date: https://infogram.com/whos-getting-vaccines-1h1749vv7v8ql6z

Full data dashboard: https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-coronavirus-dashboard-vaccines-cases-deaths-and-maps

These are using eligible population as the denominator instead of total population.

 

[RamblingMad]

Time will tell.

As of yesterday, ~44% of all new cases in the US were occurring in just 5 states: MI, NY, NJ, PA, and FL. With B.1.1.7 variant being the dominant strain in the US, we should be getting better idea of how Pfizer, Moderna, and J&J vaccines work in the general population with a much more diverse pool.
Also, the number of B.1.351 and P.1, while both still under 1,000 cases in the US, is following a nice curve similar to 2^x.

I'm most worried about B1351 for breaking through the vaccines. B117 spreads really fast. It's concerning as more people get it, more people end up in the hospital, and more people end up dead. And it's spreading quickly through MI.

We just had a baseball game here in AZ with 20 thousand people in attendance. AZ is different from other states as we have closed a stadium with AC. I don't know if they opened it or let the the AC run. If they ran the AC, then that's concerning.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

These are using eligible population as the denominator instead of total population.

I actually noticed the NYT doesn't include the 16-17 year olds which may not be great in numbers yet getting it but certainly should be included.

I do know that on my state's dashboard they use this disclaimer:


They haven't updated the Phases portion of that above screen shot though as all are eligible 16+ at this point.

 

[RamblingMad]

I actually noticed the NYT doesn't include the 16-17 year olds which may not be great in numbers yet getting it but certainly should be included.

I do know that on my state's dashboard they use this disclaimer:
View attachment 567920

They haven't updated the Phases portion of that above screen shot though as all are eligible 16+ at this point.

You can click on total and move your mouse over counties of interest. In AZ they're reporting 19% for total residents for Maricopa County. That's a long way from 70%+ that we need to reach.

My state website when clicking vaccine administration and Maricopa County is at 21%, so yes, there is definitely some lag. But that's not much closer to 70%+.

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/...se-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

You can click on total and move your mouse over counties of interest. In AZ they're reporting 19% for total residents for Maricopa County. That's a long way from 70%+ that we need to reach.

My state website when clicking vaccine administration and Maricopa County is at 21%, so yes, there is definitely some lag. But that's not much closer to 70%+.

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/...se-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

Yup I did that (and it's a cool feature) but what I was saying is the NYT information explicitly states: "Pct. of residents age 18+ that are fully vaccinated" It's not including those 16-17 year olds that have gotten Pfizer.

I was giving an example from my state that they are using total population (rather than eligible population) but that they are including the 16-17 year olds. My county has however framed at one time or another "% of eligible population" vaccinated.

Pretty much my viewpoint is no matter what data you're using is to make sure you know what it's including and not including

 

[Colleen27]

These are using eligible population as the denominator instead of total population.

But so is the UK tracker you shared. So if we're looking for apples to apples, either the Bridge total-eligible (or the NYT 18+ option, but that's only available on their fully vaccinated map, not on the one about first doses) would be more accurate a comparison than total population.

From the link you shared a page or two back, underlining mine:
"As of the end of Saturday, April 10, the number of people in the UK to have been given a first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine is 32,121,353 - an increase of 111,109 compared to the previous day. 61% of UK adults have received their first dose.

A total of 7,466,540 second doses have been administered - an increase of 475,230 compared to the previous day. 14.2% of UK adults have received their second dose."

 

[RamblingMad]

But so is the UK tracker you shared. So if we're looking for apples to apples, either the Bridge total-eligible (or the NYT 18+ option, but that's only available on their fully vaccinated map, not on the one about first doses) would be more accurate a comparison than total population.

From the link you shared a page or two back, underlining mine:
"As of the end of Saturday, April 10, the number of people in the UK to have been given a first dose of a Covid-19 vaccine is 32,121,353 - an increase of 111,109 compared to the previous day. 61% of UK adults have received their first dose.

A total of 7,466,540 second doses have been administered - an increase of 475,230 compared to the previous day. 14.2% of UK adults have received their second dose."

You're right. I found a better breakdown.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833

 

[JLTraveling]

A friend in Louisiana shared something similar from her local paper.

I don't know where in Louisiana your friend is, but here in NOLA they're speculating that while some is likely hesitancy, part of it is just that we have SO many appointments available now. Whether you want a hospital or a pharmacy or a mass walk-in or a mass drive-through...we even have bars doing "a shot for a shot" pop-up events. There's only so many people who can/want to get vaccinated on a particular day. But time will tell, I guess. As of last Thursday's update we were at just under 40% with at least one dose, so hopefully demand will remain reasonably strong for a while.

 

[Jonfw2]

Available appointments are not a sign we’re running out of people who wish to be vaccinated. They’re a sign supply is increasing.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Available appointments are not a sign we’re running out of people who wish to be vaccinated. They’re a sign supply is increasing.

Well...to a point. Once we hit the point where the vaccine is available to everyone 16+.....if appointments are still open at that time, we're likely hitting the "hesitancy wall"....which we always knew would happen. Some people want to wait awhile and see how things go. Others just won't take it...etc. I did read that we hit 4.5 million shots on Saturday, a new record.

 

[Jonfw2]

Well...to a point. Once we hit the point where the vaccine is available to everyone 16+.....if appointments are still open at that time, we're likely hitting the "hesitancy wall"....which we always knew would happen. Some people want to wait awhile and see how things go. Others just won't take it...etc. I did read that we hit 4.5 million shots on Saturday, a new record.

Yes. We WILL hit it. We haven't yet.

 

[Jonfw2]

Regeneron's antibody cocktail can both treat AND prevent Covid- and it works against all known variants. Right now, the company is working to get as much as they can into "surge" areas where we currently see the biggest outbreaks.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Reviewed the Covid 19 website and saw there were 64K new cases on Sat and only 48K new cases on Sunday--has the surge finally reversed? Hopefully, this is the case. But I guess the gloom and doomers will find something to complain about.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Available appointments doesn't inherently mean the threshold has been reached but it absolutely can. Available appointments doesn't inherently mean supply is increasing either but it absolutely can. It's not an either/or just because of appointments being available. Each area is different.

County above me they've hit their wall, my county has not..yet. Same metro two different areas. Again not an either/or available appointments means wall hit OR supply is increasing.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

Available appointments doesn't inherently mean the threshold has been reached but it absolutely can. Available appointments doesn't inherently mean supply is increasing either but it absolutely can. It's not an either/or just because of appointments being available. Each area is different.

County above me they've hit their wall, my county has not..yet. Same metro two different areas. Again not an either/or available appointments means wall hit OR supply is increasing.

I agree. It shouldn't be talked about like it's only one or the other. It can mean different things depending on where someone lives. Different populations became eligible at different times, different populations and unique to them obstacles live in different places. I know some places having more vaccine is a welcomed relief but in other places having more vaccine is meaning they are slowing down on the interest of people wanting it.

Also expanding of hours may give a different picture. Places where weekend or night (especially really late night/overnight) may give a different picture for during the week or during the day for appointments. If you had a lot of people already get the vaccine during the day during the week but it left the ones who couldn't get off work or whose only free time was the weekend now you may see those appointments fill up but the daytime during the week not fill up as much. So really just varies. But I agree with you available appointments doesn't only mean supply is increasing and available appointments doesn't only mean a sign of hitting that vaccine wall of interest from people.