CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Pyotr]

Once again, I will point to CT which was already doing a great job with their tiers and then pivoted to simply age. They are starting 55 and over today (and all teachers). 45 and older March 22 and 35 and older April 12. I am not sure if we will have the supply to get everyone in those groups by the end of April but I can tell you there won't be any unused appointment slots for sure.

I have 20+ years of project management experience and project management 101: the more dependencies you have, the more bottlenecks. I get that not every state is the same and there may be more "deserving ways" to determine who goes first, but age is a simple way to avoid what is frustrating you in your state and those in other states. We have a clear path to getting as many shots administered as possible as quickly as possible. It will interesting to see where CT is with their vaccine numbers by the end of April.

ETA: the published timeline also gives folks like me (over 45) and my wife (over 35) hope and optimism as we have a target and something to look forward to where many others across the county have no idea when it will be their turn.

The age based system is working well in Florida for the 65+ group. However, our governor hasn’t said if they’re going to continue it and lower the age or start to vaccinate certain groups (police, teachers) next.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

Because supply is the thing that is limiting availability right now, so if the doses are available, that limitation goes away. My county says they're set up to administer 6000 doses *per day* between the health department and the health system and pharmacy partnerships. So far, two months into the vaccination effort, we've only received 28K doses in total - less than a workweek's supply if they were operating at full capacity. So the administration of vaccines is set to scale up rapidly the moment more vaccines start arriving. Plus once there are no longer specific criteria to be eligible, and therefore a need for a verification process, the administration itself should move along more quickly.

To put it in actual numbers, about 220 million Americans are age-eligible for vaccination. About 165 million are actually willing to get it, and of those, 50 million have already had one dose and 25 million have had both. So we have about 115 million people awaiting access to any vaccine, and 25 million waiting for second doses. J&J is promising 20 million doses of their single-shot vaccine, so that brings the 'newbies' down to 95 million. That times 2 plus the 25m waiting for a second dose is 215m doses of the two-dose vaccines still needed... and Pfizer and Moderna are promising 200 million (combined) by the end of the month. If the vaccine hesitancy rate is closer to the 1/3 found in some surveys, rather than the 1/4 that I'm using, we could even have a surplus of vaccines - that is, more doses than people willing to get it - by April or May.

Well of course supply is the main limiting factor. But that doesn't just magically mean that the U.S. gets a certain amount of doses everyone can now be eligible. That just means more opportunities doesn't mean everyone who can get it suddenly becomes eligible. I won't get into the numbers of those wanting it. It changes too frequently. I do respect and appreciate your answer though

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Exactly. The distribution is where the holdup is.

I cannot tell you how frustrated I am to see CA counties Twitter accounts announcing "we have plenty of vaccine appointments available!" "No wait for vaccines today, just come down with an ID and proof of eligiblity!" All while sharing photos of empty vaccine centers.

This should NOT be happening. Every single vaccine appointment should be booked for every single day going forward. When you get to the point where you are putting out calls on social media basically begging people to come get vaccinated, you're doing it wrong. Move to the next group! Our state has made it SO hard for counties to use their judgment, and by not even defining the "next tier group", counties cannot give vaccines outside the narrowly defined groups that have been authorized by the state. They have to sit there and be like "Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?" It's maddening.

At this rate, I'll be lucky to get vaccinated before June, as a healthy 42 year old stay at home mom.

I agree with you and am in the same boat down to state, age & profession.

I mean "okay" as in that is your opinion and you're entitled to it and I have no desire to argue with it. I appreciate your frustration, but I do think your argument is more that than it is fact.

All due respect, she has reason for her belief. We live in a state of almost 40 million people. What works in a small state, doesn’t necessarily equate to here, even if we get more vaccines than other states. Our teachers are still fighting for appointments.

And we need to be careful with wording. Available by April likely means there are enough manufactured doses. That doesn’t always equate to vaccines in arms. So both of you can be right. I tend to agree with @DLgal that actual vaccinated people is what I count. And my county, which is much smaller than hers still has me at summer. Roll out here has been terrible.

 

[lifesavacation]

Exactly. The distribution is where the holdup is.

I cannot tell you how frustrated I am to see CA counties Twitter accounts announcing "we have plenty of vaccine appointments available!" "No wait for vaccines today, just come down with an ID and proof of eligiblity!" All while sharing photos of empty vaccine centers.

This should NOT be happening. Every single vaccine appointment should be booked for every single day going forward. When you get to the point where you are putting out calls on social media basically begging people to come get vaccinated, you're doing it wrong. Move to the next group! Our state has made it SO hard for counties to use their judgment, and by not even defining the "next tier group", counties cannot give vaccines outside the narrowly defined groups that have been authorized by the state. They have to sit there and be like "Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?" It's maddening.

At this rate, I'll be lucky to get vaccinated before June, as a healthy 42 year old stay at home mom.

I’d show up at those empty vaccination centers and try and get a vaccine even if I wasn’t eligible.

 

[rjb123]

has anyone heard anything about kids aged 15 being able to get a vaccine? I know only Pfizer is approved for 16 plus, the other two are 18 plus. I have a high risk 15 year old that I want to get a vaccine as soon as it is approved. Ugh. I can't seem to find when they expect those tests to be done. I would have had her in one if there was one near us, but no luck.

 

[Jonfw2]

I sincerely appreciate people’s frustration with where their local areas are with their vaccinations.

 

[grumpy28]

The CDC is saying new infections are on the rise by 2% from this week to last, as well as the 7 day avg of deaths is up 2%. All the numbers posted recently in this thread show a decline. What am I missing?

 

[Jonfw2]

The CDC is saying new infections are on the rise by 2% from this week to last, as well as the 7 day avg of deaths is up 2%. All the numbers posted recently in this thread show a decline. What am I missing?

They’re cherry picking mid last week after the numbers rose coming off the previous Monday which was a holiday. By the end of last week, the 7 day MA and deaths were both falling again.

 

[grumpy28]

They’re cherry picking mid last week after the numbers rose coming off the previous Monday which was a holiday. By the end of last week, the 7 day MA and deaths were both falling again.

Thank you for the explanation. I appreciate your posts.

 

[Jonfw2]

Thank you for the explanation. I appreciate your posts.

Thank you! Just for that, I will post the exact numbers here in a minute.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

has anyone heard anything about kids aged 15 being able to get a vaccine? I know only Pfizer is approved for 16 plus, the other two are 18 plus. I have a high risk 15 year old that I want to get a vaccine as soon as it is approved. Ugh. I can't seem to find when they expect those tests to be done. I would have had her in one if there was one near us, but no luck.

Trials are underway but I wouldn't expect it soon as those take some time. Just thinking out loud that doesn't mean your 15 year old won't get the vaccine...they could be eligible by age for Pfizer depending on when their birthday is and they may be eligible for other ones by the time the trials are completed, EUA or FDA approval depending on what age ends up being approved for other ones and if trials for ones currently available allow for younger than present age selected (16 or 18).

 

[Farro]

Chicago (and Illinois) - not sure what happened, but we have a lot of appointments starting this week where last week you couldn't get any. And I think we moved up a phase to 65 and older plus any age with certain comorbidities.

So here, yeah if you want it and qualify, come get it!

 

[Jonfw2]

Thank you! Just for that, I will post the exact numbers here in a minute.

Okay...

On Feb 21, the 7 day MA got down to a recent low of 69,244. It did, indeed, go up during the week to 71,700 but it has since dropped to a NEW recent low of 68,966. And based on the early numbers today, I'd expect it to fall again today.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

Chicago (and Illinois) - not sure what happened, but we have a lot of appointments starting this week where last week you couldn't get any. And I think we moved up a phase to 65 and older plus any age with certain comorbidities.

So here, yeah if you want it and qualify, come get it!

I was reading about some states IL being one of them. It was explaining the issues that elderly people are facing trying to get appointments which seems to be a reoccurring issue in many places. One was a story about a couple 89 and 92 year olds who were trying day after day after day. The article I was reading mentioned the newer mass vaccination site that will start March 10th and they are giving those 65 and up the appointments first as far as I read. The article mentioned they have to be booked online using the same website that couple kept trying on day after day with no luck. I hope what you say helps them out in getting appointments!

 

[jlwhitney]

Florida’s numbers today is like a low not seen since like mid October!

 

[Farro]

I was reading about some states IL being one of them. It was explaining the issues that elderly people are facing trying to get appointments which seems to be a reoccurring issue in many places. One was a story about a couple 89 and 92 year olds who were trying day after day after day. The article I was reading mentioned the newer mass vaccination site that will start March 10th and they are giving those 65 and up the appointments first as far as I read. The article mentioned they have to be booked online using the same website that couple kept trying on day after day with no luck. I hope what you say helps them out in getting appointments!

Both of my 82 year parents had their first shot already and Walgreens released many appointments this week for first shots.

I think people aren't savvy on how to look for appointments. There are hospitals that you can sign up for a mychart even if you aren't a patient there and get booked for vaccines. We actually had an appointment that way for my dad, but cancelled because he could get to Walgreens sooner.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

Both of my 82 year parents had their first shot already and Walgreens released many appointments this week for first shots.

I think people aren't savvy on how to look for appointments. There are hospitals that you can sign up for a mychart even if you aren't a patient there and get booked for vaccines. We actually had an appointment that way for my dad, but cancelled because he could get to Walgreens sooner.

This article made a point to say "Armed with multiple devices, daughter Ann Rosen has tried multiple websites: CVS, Mariano's, Jewel, Zoc Doc, and North Shore Health Care. And that's only half of them. Rosen's husband and out-of-town sister try everyday day, too. A number of people have said, why don't you try at 6 a.m.? I've tried at 6 a.m. Why don't you try at midnight? I've tried at midnight, I've never seen one opening. It's full," she said."

So I think in their case there was no availability to be had this article was from a couple days ago so that's why I said I hoped what you said would help them out maybe they won't have as much issues now. But definitely others have mentioned the technology issue and that happens a lot too.

If I had an appointment and could get one sooner I'd cancel too. I bet you people don't even think to look for different appointments after booking one, they are probably just so happy to get one but really it's not a bad idea to keep looking if you can.

 

[Farro]

This article made a point to say "Armed with multiple devices, daughter Ann Rosen has tried multiple websites: CVS, Mariano's, Jewel, Zoc Doc, and North Shore Health Care. And that's only half of them. Rosen's husband and out-of-town sister try everyday day, too. A number of people have said, why don't you try at 6 a.m.? I've tried at 6 a.m. Why don't you try at midnight? I've tried at midnight, I've never seen one opening. It's full," she said."

So I think in their case there was no availability to be had this article was from a couple days ago so that's why I said I hoped what you said would help them out maybe they won't have as much issues now. But definitely others have mentioned the technology issue and that happens a lot too.

If I had an appointment and could get one sooner I'd cancel too. I bet you people don't even think to look for different appointments after booking one, they are probably just so happy to get one but really it's not a bad idea to keep looking if you can.

It's Illinois - what works one day won't work the next!

 

[Jonfw2]

Many states today announced expansion of availability.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

It's Illinois - what works one day won't work the next!

true. Well at least it's good news right now, it's something