CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Heigh-Ho]

1. the volume of doses is increasing dramatically.
2. the efficiency in getting them into arms is increasing dramatically.
3. both of these things will continue.

True and I completely agree with you that more doses and learning as we go will put us in a better position but that's not answering the question

Those don't mean that "by April, everyone who wants to get vaccinated will be able to." That just means there's more doses coming into the U.S. than before and that we may be better as time goes on in getting those doses out to various places.

How does what you're saying and a certain amount of doses mean that everyone who wants it will be able to and by April?

I'm not picking on you trust me but I do think it's something we should and can discuss. For as much as the news is doom and gloom to many people I think there is a case to also being realistic. I want to know personally speaking how they plan to get there. I think as much as Fauci and Gottleib can be great they aren't as involved with the logistics and distribution and actual realistic part of the vaccine process. It's not their wheel-house at the moment. Meanwhile the people of the states are aware, painfully at times it seems, on how it's going in their areas or in some cases in bordering states. I think their opinions count for something too They are in the trenches, seeing how it's going and understandably so are wondering how in a month (or I guess two months like that poster said) they will be eligible to get it when their state is only at a certain point.

I would LOVE for everyone to be able to have the opportunity by April and I don't think anyone would argue against wanting that

 

[Jonfw2]

True and I completely agree with you that more doses and learning as we go will put us in a better position but that's not answering the question

Those don't mean that "by April, everyone who wants to get vaccinated will be able to." That just means there's more doses coming into the U.S. than before and that we may be better as time goes on in getting those doses out to various places.

How does what you're saying and a certain amount of doses mean that everyone who wants it will be able to and by April?

I'm not picking on you trust me but I do think it's something we should and can discuss. For as much as the news is doom and gloom to many people I think there is a case to also being realistic. I want to know personally speaking how they plan to get there. I think as much as Fauci and Gottleib can be great they aren't involved with the logistics and distribution and actual realistic part of the vaccine process. It's not their wheel-house at the moment. Meanwhile the people of the states are aware, painfully at times it seems, on how it's going in their areas or in some cases in bordering states. I think their opinions count for something too They are in the trenches, seeing how it's going and understandably so are wondering how in a month (or I guess two months like that poster said) they will be eligible to get it when their state is only at a certain point.

I would LOVE for everyone to be able to have the opportunity by April and I don't think anyone would argue against wanting that

I think I’ll default to just saying this is what Scott Gottleib continues to believe. I assume his knowledge of this is beyond mine.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

I think I’ll default to just saying this is what Scott Gottleib continues to believe. I assume his knowledge of this is beyond mine.

This thread is a lot more enjoyable when we can discuss with each other even when it's just opinion-based talks jumping off of what some expert or news article mentioned, we're not robots

 

[Joe in VA]

Gottlieb saying that by May we may need to start offloading doses to Mexico.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Gottleib is expecting vaccinations to be available to everyone...as in eligible perhaps? J&J should help get them into arms...no storage issues.

 

[godisney14]

February 21st, 2020 was the day the stock market realized that Covid was going to be a legitimate issue- based on the news coming out of Italy, the Dow dropped over 1,000 points that day for the first time (but not the last) during this crisis.

Today, March 1, 2021 is the day the market realized that Covid is going to be successfully dealt with. The Dow is currently up 700 points on the news of JNJ's vaccine approval. Now, there was no doubt this was coming, so why would the market react so positively? Because people are figuring out what it all means- combine the falling numbers, the rapid increase in vaccinations, the coming warmer weather and even the pessimists are getting optimistic.

Do you really believe today’s market was a reaction to the J&J approval?
Are you really in finance?

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

This thread is a lot more enjoyable when we can discuss with each other even when it's just opinion-based talks jumping off of what some expert or news article mentioned, we're not robots

I get it when sometimes you just want to step back and not really reply as much but when virtually every response from any one person is met with a stone wall sorta defeats the point of posting information on a discussion board. It's like an e-mail where you can't actually reply to

 

[Jonfw2]

This thread is a lot more enjoyable when we can discuss with each other even when it's just opinion-based talks jumping off of what some expert or news article mentioned, we're not robots

Well, again, I appreciate the frustration but I still defer to Dr. Gottleib.

 

[Jonfw2]

Do you really believe today’s market was a reaction to the J&J approval?
Are you really in finance?

I think it’s the market realizing we will be out of this sooner than feared. Yes- I really work in finance.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

Well, again, I appreciate the frustration but I still defer to Dr. Gottleib.

It's not frustration, it was an attempt at discussing the subject matter you posted about. That's why I mentioned we're not robots But I get it you don't want to discuss it so we'll drop it.

 

[godisney14]

Gottleib is expecting vaccinations to be available to everyone...as in eligible perhaps? J&J should help get them into arms...no storage issues.

Yes. The thought is that the general public will be able to make an appt easily at any time relatively soon. The demand for vaccines by people who want it now will be falling off a cliff in a month or two once J&J’s vaccine gets rolling. As I mentioned before, recent surveys show at least a quarter or third of the US population has no interest in getting a vaccine. Then there’s a group of people who are unsure or holding out to get a vaccine a little longer.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Gottleib is expecting vaccinations to be available to everyone...as in eligible perhaps? J&J should help get them into arms...no storage issues.

Yes I do believe they do mean eligible as in they are just using how many doses the U.S. is expected to get between all 3 presently speaking vaccines out there. That said that still doesn't mean everyone will be able to just by saying it. How does it account for people waiting currently for them with appointments into April? Will we suddenly just have people jumping over people with existing appointments or those currently on waitlists for places that have them? What's the process to be? Are they just giving the doses to the states and saying "well we hope that covers the rest of your population that can get it" (can meaning age and other reasons one would not be able to get the vaccine medically speaking). How will they split up the doses to the states?

There's totally more to it than just saying what they are saying. I *think* that's why we're pushing back with more questions.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Yes. The thought is that the general public will be able to make an appt easily at any time relatively soon. The demand for vaccines by people who want it now will be falling off a cliff in a month or two once J&J’s vaccine gets rolling. As I mentioned before, recent surveys show at least a quarter or third of the US population has no interest in getting a vaccine.

Who knows what this number will be in two months. I know quite a few who were absolutely not getting the vax. They changed their mind once it was available. Although as infections continue to fall some may not see the urgency. So time will tell.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

As I mentioned before, recent surveys show at least a quarter or third of the US population has no interest in getting a vaccine.

While I haven't looked that up and don't have as much stock put into surveys that change at a moment's notice that's at a country level right? The only way you'd know if everyone could get it that wants it by next month, at least IMO, is by looking at each and every state, scouring their stats not only in how many eligible people (by age at the very least) but how many eligible people (by age at the very least) have gotten it so far and how many eligible people want it. Medical reasons for not being able to get the vaccine would be much harder to gain information on to me.

I don't assume that the U.S. is some homogeneous place where every state has the same characteristics not only in who their population is but also the statistics on who wants the vaccine and who has gotten it so far. And we also haven't even gotten into how each state and within each state has combatted vaccine hesitancy by targeting certain groups in information campaigns.

 

[huskies90]

...counties cannot give vaccines outside the narrowly defined groups that have been authorized by the state. They have to sit there and be like "Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?" It's maddening.

At this rate, I'll be lucky to get vaccinated before June, as a healthy 42 year old stay at home mom.

Once again, I will point to CT which was already doing a great job with their tiers and then pivoted to simply age. They are starting 55 and over today (and all teachers). 45 and older March 22 and 35 and older April 12. I am not sure if we will have the supply to get everyone in those groups by the end of April but I can tell you there won't be any unused appointment slots for sure.

I have 20+ years of project management experience and project management 101: the more dependencies you have, the more bottlenecks. I get that not every state is the same and there may be more "deserving ways" to determine who goes first, but age is a simple way to avoid what is frustrating you in your state and those in other states. We have a clear path to getting as many shots administered as possible as quickly as possible. It will interesting to see where CT is with their vaccine numbers by the end of April.

ETA: the published timeline also gives folks like me (over 45) and my wife (over 35) hope and optimism as we have a target and something to look forward to where many others across the county have no idea when it will be their turn.

 

[OKbyme]

Anxiously looked for some place in PA where we live to get DS a vaccine. He is high risk and recently started back to work FT in January. Couldn't even find one single place on the "map" where he could even get on a waiting list.

Geisinger came under some criticism as they had vaccinated family members of their employees. They claim they were qualified per state guidelines, and even if that is so, that still meant they were ushered to the front of the line when many can't even get on a waiting list, let alone the actual date for the vaccine.

I finally got DS on a few waiting list on Feb 17. As things seem to go in life, out of the blue, his employer had a shipment of vaccines and he was offered one last Thursday. He is the first one in our immediate family to get the vaccine.

I hope the timeline given is correct, but I will be surprised if it happens. I am hoping the J&J vaccine will be the game changer.

 

[DLgal]

Well, again, I appreciate the frustration but I still defer to Dr. Gottleib.

Until Dr. Gottlieb (i.e. the Federal Government) literally takes over the administration of the vaccine in all 50 states, his opinion is also just that. An opinion. He is not in charge of getting vaccines in arms. The Federal government is not exclusively running that show either.

I will defer to my county's health department, because they are literally the ones running the show where I live. They set a goal of July 4 for the 3 million residents here. I'm gonna believe them.

 

[Colleen27]

How does what you're saying and a certain amount of doses mean that everyone who wants it will be able to and by April?

Because supply is the thing that is limiting availability right now, so if the doses are available, that limitation goes away. My county says they're set up to administer 6000 doses *per day* between the health department and the health system and pharmacy partnerships. So far, two months into the vaccination effort, we've only received 28K doses in total - less than a workweek's supply if they were operating at full capacity. So the administration of vaccines is set to scale up rapidly the moment more vaccines start arriving. Plus once there are no longer specific criteria to be eligible, and therefore a need for a verification process, the administration itself should move along more quickly.

To put it in actual numbers, about 220 million Americans are age-eligible for vaccination. About 165 million are actually willing to get it, and of those, 50 million have already had one dose and 25 million have had both. So we have about 115 million people awaiting access to any vaccine, and 25 million waiting for second doses. J&J is promising 20 million doses of their single-shot vaccine, so that brings the 'newbies' down to 95 million. That times 2 plus the 25m waiting for a second dose is 215m doses of the two-dose vaccines still needed... and Pfizer and Moderna are promising 200 million (combined) by the end of the month. If the vaccine hesitancy rate is closer to the 1/3 found in some surveys, rather than the 1/4 that I'm using, we could even have a surplus of vaccines - that is, more doses than people willing to get it - by April or May.

 

[Mango7100]

I have a very hard time believing this. I live in a state where so far, only 1 in 7 residents has been vaccinated. I do not see a scenario where we have everyone who wants it vaccinated by April. Our state dashboard is currently targeting to have enough supplies "by summer 2021." We are still only on Tier 1B. They haven't even decided allocation criteria beyond Tier 1C.

I agree with you. My state just started 1b (teachers) and 65+ last week. Even eight the increase in vaccine allotment and the J and J vaccine starting this week, it seems very very optimistic to say that anyone who wants one can get one within the next 8 weeks.

 

[DLgal]

Once again, I will point to CT which was already doing a great job with their tiers and then pivoted to simply age. They are starting 55 and over today (and all teachers). 45 and older March 22 and 35 and older April 12. I am not sure if we will have the supply to get everyone in those groups by the end of April but I can tell you there won't be any unused appointment slots for sure.

I have 20+ years of project management experience and project management 101: the more dependencies you have, the more bottlenecks. I get that not every state is the same and there may be more "deserving ways" to determine who goes first, but age is a simple way to avoid what is frustrating you in your state and those in other states. We have a clear path to getting as many shots administered as possible as quickly as possible. It will interesting to see where CT is with their vaccine numbers by the end of April.

ETA: the published timeline also gives folks like me (over 45) and my wife (over 35) hope and optimism as we have a target and something to look forward to where many others across the county have no idea when it will be their turn.

The entire state of CT has the same number of people as just my county in CA. At this point, we have still only vaccinated half of our 65+ population (which numbers around 900,000).

I agree that a straight age based system would be best. Unfortunately our governor is more concerned with "equitable distribution" than quick, efficient distribution.

 

[Colleen27]

Until Dr. Gottlieb (i.e. the Federal Government) literally takes over the administration of the vaccine in all 50 states, his opinion is also just that. An opinion. He is not in charge of getting vaccines in arms. The Federal government is not exclusively running that show either.

I will defer to my county's health department, because they are literally the ones running the show where I live. They set a goal of July 4 for the 3 million residents here. I'm gonna believe them.

Yeah, but government agencies tend to err on the side of underpromising rather than underperforming and don't necessarily devote resources to updating their advice as other elements of the situation change. My state has set a goal of getting 70% of the population vaccinated by 2022 and projects that healthy people under 65 won't be eligible until late summer or early fall. That's not in keeping with any of the current information coming out about the state of the vaccination effort (and in fact, it was written back when there was only one approved vaccine and hasn't been updated at all).

Of course, there may be some administrative issues if local leaders aren't planning far enough ahead to roll smoothly from one tier to the next or if they're getting bogged down in unnecessary concerns (which I think is a factor in places where there's a push to use "equity" as a factor in the roll out) because the more criteria they have, the more likely doses will sit unused waiting for people who meet those criteria to come along. But for the most part, I think all of those concerns will basically evaporate if the drugmakers deliver on the promised levels of production because there's no reason for rationing when there isn't a shortage.