CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Pyotr]

New IHME model is showing 91,000 deaths until June 1. Ugh.

Dr Fauci was on one of the Sunday morning shows saying we may have to wear a mask into next year. Ugh.

Was hopeful when Dr Markay said we would have herd immunity in April, but so far he seems to be the only one saying that. Everyone else is freaking out over the variants coming. Ugh.

When has the IHME been even remotely close to any prediction?

 

[grumpy28]

When has the IHME been even remotely close to any prediction?

Is it usually that far off? Honest question.

 

[jlwhitney]

When has the IHME been even remotely close to any prediction?

not very much and to be honest fauci hasn’t been right a whole lot either.

 

[Pyotr]

I don't think either or the two examples you cited compares with the crazy over-the-top statements that I cited. What you cited were two examples put out by public health experts to try and buy time....to try and get the public to come around at two totally different phases of the pandemic.

As far as vaccine transmissibility and the message goes, if a person is unwilling to get the vaccine to protect herself, how likely is she to get the vaccine to protect others. A lot of those people will only get the vaccine when they are made to get it....for work, travel, etc.

I agree with you. I just don’t understand why is a bad thing to tell people “get the vaccine and you can start getting back to normal.” I read an article on CNN that recommends that two people who are both fully vaccinated can socialize as long as they’re masked and physically distanced. If someone was hesitant on getting the vaccine, after reading that, why would they want to get it?

The crazy over the top stuff gets media coverage. Look at Osterman and his 8-12 week raging inferno.

 

[dvcgirl67]

But half of any public health campaign is in the messaging and the public perception. And right now, the public perception is awful, largely thanks to articles stressing that vaccination changes nothing until 70-80% of the population has had both doses (right now, a mathematical impossibility... until we have a vaccine for children, even 100% adult acceptance won't get us there) and even then might be meaningless because of new variants.

Your assumption that people will simply seek out the information that suits their biases assumes everyone already has a strong and entrenched opinion on the subject. I don't think that's the case here. I think there are a lot of people still on the fence, whether because of discomfort with a new vaccine or because they just haven't had to make a decision when eligibility is still months off, and that group is both persuadable and vulnerable to negative messaging. And "get the vaccine but don't expect it to change anything about the reduced half-life we're all living" is the ultimate in negative messaging, currently being screamed from screens of every variety in CNN segments and NatGeo newsletters and WaPo articles.

I agree that there are still some people on the fence, and I'm hoping that with time some of those folks will come around and get the vaccine. But I still tend to think that a good percentage of those people will only get the vaccine when they need it in order to keep a job, get a job, travel...etc.

I've talked to two people in the last few days who aren't planning on getting the vaccine. One is our early 30s mobile dog groomer. We were talking about the pandemic and I mentioned that I can't wait to get the vaccine. She said "I don't think I'm going to get it." I know her pretty well and I asked her why not? She said her biggest concern was giving the virus to her 70+ year old mother, but that she didn't think she needed to get it. She then volunteered that her new boyfriend is from Portugal and that she'd get it if she had to in order to visit his family there.

The other is a woman in her late 30s/early 40s. She's an in-home nurse for an elderly customer of mine who is recovering at home from back surgery. I have been over there to walk my customer's dogs while she recovers. We were chatting about the vaccines and the live-in nurse who hails from Ghana said that there was no way that she'd be getting the vaccine. She said she didn't trust it. Since she joined the conversation, I asked if she would get the vaccine if her employer required it. She said she didn't know. But I suspect that she would. She's an employee of a major hospital system in my state and I'm positive that she was required to get a boatload of other vaccines in order to get the job she had. She will likely get it when others in her community or her work friends get it.

 

[Pyotr]

Is it usually that far off? Honest question.

Yes. It has been extremely off the entire pandemic. Youyang Gu has had the most accurate model, but he stopped doing it last November. He’s now doing a path to Herd immunity/normalcy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-ai-and-data-to-make-most-accurate-prediction

 

[grumpy28]

Yes. It has been extremely off the entire pandemic. Youyang Gu has had the most accurate model, but he stopped doing it last November. He’s now doing a path to Herd immunity/normalcy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-ai-and-data-to-make-most-accurate-prediction

Thanks for the link. I've never heard of him before.

 

[Cheburashka]

I can vouch for the importance of positive messaging even as someone eager to get the vaccine. My mother just got her second shot, and when I talked about being eager to get mine, she repeated the talking points above and said, "But you still have to wear masks & take all the precautions", etc. My heart kind of plummeted after hearing that, even though I knew the strong supportive data about the efficacy of the Moderna & Pfizer vaccines, even against variants.

Maybe continuing to isolate & mask indefinitely is acceptable to her, because she's in her late 70's, doesn't work, etc. But I'm sick of living my life that way. I want to go to church again. I want family gatherings at holidays again. I want to cruise again. And I eventually want to stop having to wear masks. A very small risk of getting a mild version of Covid is something I can handle in exchange for getting a real life back due to vaccination.

Once vaccination is available to all American adults (possibly this summer), our society should fully reopen and masking should become optional. Children have always been at the least risk, and any adults who choose not to get vaccinated would be taking a calculated risk, and that should not impede anyone else's right to live a full and free life.

 

[Pyotr]

Thanks for the link. I've never heard of him before.

For the first few months of the pandemic I followed the IHME almost daily. Late summer I heard about Gu’s model. I couldn’t believe on close he was to what actually happened.

He credits making his model based in numbers alone, and not trying to influence policy.

 

[Farro]

New IHME model is showing 91,000 deaths until June 1. Ugh.

Dr Fauci was on one of the Sunday morning shows saying we may have to wear a mask into next year. Ugh.

Was hopeful when Dr Makary said we would have herd immunity in April, but so far he seems to be the only one saying that. Everyone else is freaking out over the variants coming. Ugh.

This is what he said when asked if we would be wearing masks into next year or things will become more normal. What else could he say? He can't say no. Again, if you want to see it as a pessimistic view, you will. Otherwise it's just a vague answer to a dumb question for a news program to be asking. They are basically asking him to predict the future.

"You know, I think it is possible that that's the case and, again, it really depends on what you mean by normality."

We could be, we could not be, we'll see.

 

[KBoopaloo]

There are two studies now coming out of Israel that suggest the Pfizer vaccine has a powerful ability to reduce transmission. One study says 75% reduction, the other 89%.

Best vaccine news of the week! This always seemed likely but it’s nice to get some studies confirming it.

 

[erin1715]

It is so, so deflating to even hear Fauci say that. The numbers for the virus are going in the right direction. The vaccines prevent death. And for those who may choose not to get it, then that’s on them. But why can we not just say that once the vaccine is available to all (presumably by summer) then we can lift all restrictions.
They keep moving the goal posts to normalcy and it’s exhausting. To me, normalcy is exactly how life was before this virus. No mask, no distancing etc. If our goal was to lower hospitalization and death rates, this vaccine seems to meet those goals. I’m tired of living this way.

 

[Farro]

It is so, so deflating to even hear Fauci say that. The numbers for the virus are going in the right direction. The vaccines prevent death. And for those who may choose not to get it, then that’s on them. But why can we not just say that once the vaccine is available to all (presumably by summer) then we can lift all restrictions.
They keep moving the goal posts to normalcy and it’s exhausting. To me, normalcy is exactly how life was before this virus. No mask, no distancing etc. If our goal was to lower hospitalization and death rates, this vaccine seems to meet those goals. I’m tired of living this way.

Again, of course he's going to say it's possible. He can't say we aren't going to need them.

People, come on.

 

[TLSnell1981]

not very much and to be honest fauci hasn’t been right a whole lot either.

No matter how impressive his credentials are...don't trust what he says.

 

[erin1715]

He could have followed his statement up with something more uplifting like “but we’re hopeful that the vaccines do what they are showing and we won’t need masks”

Again, of course he's going to say it's possible. He can't say we aren't going to need them.

People, come on.

 

[Farro]

He could have followed his statement up with something more uplifting like “but we’re hopeful that the vaccines do what they are showing and we won’t need masks”

Watch the interview.

 

[erin1715]

Watch the interview.

Ok I’ll have to do that.

 

[Joe in VA]

The real issue isn't Fauci's comments, it is the headlines that the media chooses to make with them. "Fauci says masks into 2022 possible" Complete negativity and fear mongering are their main objective, unfortunately. I think things are trending way better than could have ever been expected a few weeks back and that total normality by Summer in many places is possible if not likely. There may be a few people who choose to wear masks and socially distance for eternity, but for the rest of us it will be time to return to all forms of normal life. Concerts, cruises, bars, etc.

My daily newsblast from our local paper has the bold headline: "Fauci: Masks possible into 2022" In a week that had arguably the most positive news of the year, they choose that scare tactic as their biggest headline. Sad.

Hell Florida has been close to normal for months and has basically followed the same trends as the more locked down states. I go out to eat 4-5 times a week in the Tampa area and pretty much every restaurant fills every seat at the bar and has no social distancing with their tables etc. Completely pre covid normal. And it's been that way since before Christmas.

 

[lovethesun12]

But half of any public health campaign is in the messaging and the public perception. And right now, the public perception is awful, largely thanks to articles stressing that vaccination changes nothing until 70-80% of the population has had both doses (right now, a mathematical impossibility... until we have a vaccine for children, even 100% adult acceptance won't get us there) and even then might be meaningless because of new variants.

Your assumption that people will simply seek out the information that suits their biases assumes everyone already has a strong and entrenched opinion on the subject. I don't think that's the case here. I think there are a lot of people still on the fence, whether because of discomfort with a new vaccine or because they just haven't had to make a decision when eligibility is still months off, and that group is both persuadable and vulnerable to negative messaging. And "get the vaccine but don't expect it to change anything about the reduced half-life we're all living" is the ultimate in negative messaging, currently being screamed from screens of every variety in CNN segments and NatGeo newsletters and WaPo articles.

I'm not making the assumption that *everyone* will seek information that suits their biases. I'm stating that if a physician tells the truth, and a *specific* person refuses to hear what they said, the problem is not that the physician told the truth, the problem is that specific person doesn't want to hear it.

(on another note, now I have Jack Nicholson screaming "You can't handle the truth!!!!" in my head, lol).

 

[jlwhitney]

The real issue isn't Fauci's comments, it is the headlines that the media chooses to make with them. "Fauci says masks into 2022 possible" Complete negativity and fear mongering are their main objective, unfortunately. I think things are trending way better than could have ever been expected a few weeks back and that total normality by Summer in many places is possible if not likely. There may be a few people who choose to wear masks and socially distance for eternity, but for the rest of us it will be time to return to all forms of normal life. Concerts, cruises, bars, etc.

My daily newsblast from our local paper has the bold headline: "Fauci: Masks possible into 2022" In a week that had arguably the most positive news of the year, they choose that scare tactic as their biggest headline. Sad.

Hell Florida has been close to normal for months and has basically followed the same trends as the more locked down states. I go out to eat 4-5 times a week in the Tampa area and pretty much every restaurant fills every seat at the bar and has no social distancing with their tables etc. Completely pre covid normal. And it's been that way since before Christmas.

I am in Florida also and agree a lot is like pre Covid. Went to the zoo yesterday where no masks are required indoors or outdoors and they reopened the playground too. Today went to church again masks not required and most don’t wear , sit every other row but other than that normal with singing. Now at ruby tuesdays where every table is full with a wait and the yummy salad bar is open .
It has been this way for months and our numbers never went out of control and hospitals never had capacity issue. Nothing worst than the strict locked down areas except better economy and mental health.