CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Jonfw2]

Prediction: death rates will start falling in the US next week and will never rebound to the levels we're seeing now.

 

[dvcgirl67]

The person giving does make a difference. Going through IVF I had my preferred “needle” people and would request/wait for them over others I knew were terrible at it.

This is very true....with injections, and blood draws....and especially with inserting IV catheters. I think back to when I was a brand new nurse and wince to think how many people I caused a bit of undue pain because....quite simply....it takes practice.

 

[Colleen27]

@Jonfw2 and others.... is your thinking that the "huge surge like nothing we've seen before, coming in 6-14 weeks", not going to happen?

That is absolutely my sense. I'm no expert, but you don't need to be an expert to know that a virus is at its most dangerous with an entirely naïve population. We had that this time last year, and because we shut down so hard and so early, we still had that (mostly) going into the fall/winter. We don't have that now. Even if we pretend that the official tally counts every single person who has had covid (which is, of course, a ridiculous assumption), we're at a point now where 1 of every 6 Americans "officially" has some protection against the virus, either via having had it or via at least one dose of vaccine. We're immunizing about 6 million people a week, on average, and working to speed up that pace still further. So 8 weeks from now, what should be smack in the middle of the latest doomsday projection, we should hit the milestone of 1 in 3 being vaccinated. That's a big number, certainly enough to disrupt chains of contagion, particularly with the focus of the vaccine effort being on those most likely to be exposed, and probably enough, concentrated as it is among the most vulnerable, to slash the severe-illness burden that strains our health care system.

I'll bite. After our huge surge in the Northeast, we flattened the curve to almost nothing but the health experts were warning about a surge in the Fall/Winter. I said "no way" we are going back to those levels. The health experts were right. If you look back, the health experts have been right more often than people believing what they want to believe. If they are saying there will be a surge, there probably will be one. But if we continue to vaccinate at the rate we are going, the surge (hopefully) will not be as pronounced as what we saw in November/December/January.

They've also been profoundly wrong, particularly those inclined to see doom around every corner. Remember all spring and summer when every picture of a beach, a lake crowded with boaters, or a popular trailhead parking lot was being deemed a "super spreader"? When Memorial Day and Independence Day were supposed to produce extreme surges all across the midwest? The only event that managed to live up to that prediction was Sturgis, which is unique for a number of reasons, notably the travel involved and the particular biases and attitudes of the group that attends but also the number of indoor and close-packed events and the free flowing alcohol.

That's another reason I'm skeptical of the spring surge predictions... not because experts sometimes get things wrong but because if last year taught us anything, it is that being outdoors is our friend when it comes to this virus. So unlike the fall/winter surge, which was a much "safer" prediction because of the seasonal nature of virus activity as a whole and the fact that most of the country would be cooped up inside for months, this prediction is suggesting that the patterns we saw last year simply won't apply to the new variants. That doesn't mesh with my (admittedly imperfect and learning-on-the-fly) understanding of how viruses behave, even when mutations are taken into account.

I'm also paying attention to who is doing the predicting, because there are certain patterns in which public figures/institutions take a more optimistic or pessimistic view and which are more reluctant to make the big leaps that make headlines. If you notice, Fauci is much more measured and moderate in his predictions for the effect of the new strain than either of the two doctors who supplied the quotes in the articles saying the worst is just on the horizon.

 

[huskies90]

That is absolutely my sense. I'm no expert, but you don't need to be an expert to know that a virus is at its most dangerous with an entirely naïve population. We had that this time last year, and because we shut down so hard and so early, we still had that (mostly) going into the fall/winter. We don't have that now. Even if we pretend that the official tally counts every single person who has had covid (which is, of course, a ridiculous assumption), we're at a point now where 1 of every 6 Americans "officially" has some protection against the virus, either via having had it or via at least one dose of vaccine. We're immunizing about 6 million people a week, on average, and working to speed up that pace still further. So 8 weeks from now, what should be smack in the middle of the latest doomsday projection, we should hit the milestone of 1 in 3 being vaccinated. That's a big number, certainly enough to disrupt chains of contagion, particularly with the focus of the vaccine effort being on those most likely to be exposed, and probably enough, concentrated as it is among the most vulnerable, to slash the severe-illness burden that strains our health care system.



They've also been profoundly wrong, particularly those inclined to see doom around every corner. Remember all spring and summer when every picture of a beach, a lake crowded with boaters, or a popular trailhead parking lot was being deemed a "super spreader"? When Memorial Day and Independence Day were supposed to produce extreme surges all across the midwest? The only event that managed to live up to that prediction was Sturgis, which is unique for a number of reasons, notably the travel involved and the particular biases and attitudes of the group that attends but also the number of indoor and close-packed events and the free flowing alcohol.

That's another reason I'm skeptical of the spring surge predictions... not because experts sometimes get things wrong but because if last year taught us anything, it is that being outdoors is our friend when it comes to this virus. So unlike the fall/winter surge, which was a much "safer" prediction because of the seasonal nature of virus activity as a whole and the fact that most of the country would be cooped up inside for months, this prediction is suggesting that the patterns we saw last year simply won't apply to the new variants. That doesn't mesh with my (admittedly imperfect and learning-on-the-fly) understanding of how viruses behave, even when mutations are taken into account.

I'm also paying attention to who is doing the predicting, because there are certain patterns in which public figures/institutions take a more optimistic or pessimistic view and which are more reluctant to make the big leaps that make headlines. If you notice, Fauci is much more measured and moderate in his predictions for the effect of the new strain than either of the two doctors who supplied the quotes in the articles saying the worst is just on the horizon.

That's why I was careful to say "health experts" and not media. I have never heard a doctor use the term "super spreader," only caution that gathering in large groups is less safe than isolating and distancing. Fauci is a good example, outside of his early mask prediction, he has been pretty accurate in his predictions. He, too, is warning about the variants. But perhaps not the doom and gloom we are reading in the media. The media will take every statement and sensationalize it to get clicks.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Prediction: death rates will start falling in the US next week and will never rebound to the levels we're seeing now.

They're falling already. Interesting though that I just saw on the news that the CDC today is predicting 534,000 deaths by February 27th. We're at 445,000 now according to the CDC. 89,000 more deaths in the next 21 days....an average of 4,200 deaths in the next 21 days. Seems high to me.

 

[Jonfw2]

They're falling already. Interesting though that I just saw on the news that the CDC today is predicting 534,000 deaths by February 27th. We're at 445,000 now according to the CDC. 89,000 more deaths in the next 21 days....an average of 4,200 deaths in the next 21 days. Seems high to me.

The numbers just don't support that.

 

[jlwhitney]

They're falling already. Interesting though that I just saw on the news that the CDC today is predicting 534,000 deaths by February 27th. We're at 445,000 now according to the CDC. 89,000 more deaths in the next 21 days....an average of 4,200 deaths in the next 21 days. Seems high to me.

Remember back in early nov when they predicted over 3k per day for 6-8 weeks ? That never happened either.

 

[dvcgirl67]

The numbers just don't support that.

I agree....if the trends continue, I'm not sure we even hit 500,000 deaths by the end of the month. Let's hope so. We've peaked in cases, hospitalizations, and it looks like....in deaths as well. I think the worst of this is behind us. I still think we have challenges ahead of us, but it won't be as bad as what we've all been through.

 

[Jonfw2]

I agree....if the trends continue, I'm not sure we even hit 500,000 deaths by the end of the month. Let's hope so. We've peaked in cases, hospitalizations, and it looks like....in deaths as well. I think the worst of this is behind us. I still think we have challenges ahead of us, but it won't be as bad as what we've all been through.

Agreed. The math says that the people most likely to die are now the ones most likely to already be vaccinated.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Remember back in early nov when they predicted over 3k per day for 6-8 weeks ? That never happened either.

I'm not sure what the average has been for the last 6-8 weeks, but it has been pretty high. I don't know when the death rate gets down to a really, really low number, but we're certainly going over 500K dead....maybe 600K by summer, even with things slowing down....though I hope not. The 2019-2020 flu season had 22,000 dead. I get that maybe the experts were off a bit on the predictions, but what we have is awful enough for me.

 

[Jonfw2]

I'm not sure what the average has been for the last 6-8 weeks, but it has been pretty high. I don't know when the death rate gets down to a really, really low number, but we're certainly going over 500K dead....maybe 600K by summer, even with things slowing down....though I hope not. The 2019-2020 flu season had 22,000 dead. I get that maybe the experts were off a bit on the predictions, but what we have is awful enough for me.

As morbid as this sounds, I've seen speculation that the death rate in the US could be below average starting next year for several years. This would be due to the fact that a whole lot of people who would have died say 2-5 years from now instead died last year and this year.

 

[TLSnell1981]

That's why I was careful to say "health experts" and not media. I have never heard a doctor use the term "super spreader," only caution that gathering in large groups is less safe than isolating and distancing. Fauci is a good example, outside of his early mask prediction, he has been pretty accurate in his predictions. He, too, is warning about the variants. But perhaps not the doom and gloom we are reading in the media. The media will take every statement and sensationalize it to get clicks.

Yeah. This prediction was spot on.

"There will also be a surprise outbreak." Fauci 01/2017

 

[disneypharm]

Remember back in early nov when they predicted over 3k per day for 6-8 weeks ? That never happened either.

Actually, it did happen and unfortunately it is still high. https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-daily-deaths

 

[huskies90]

Yeah. This prediction was spot on.

"There will also be a surprise outbreak." Fauci 01/2017

I am not sure I follow. Are you just trying to be snarky? Or do you have something intelligent to add?

 

[TLSnell1981]

I am not sure I follow. Are you just trying to be snarky? Or do you have something intelligent to add?

I agreed with your comment and offered another example. I'm not sure that I understand your reaction.

 

[huskies90]

I agreed with your comment and offered another example. I'm not sure that I understand your reaction.

My bad. Sorry for the reaction. I couldn't tell.

 

[dvcgirl67]

As morbid as this sounds, I've seen speculation that the death rate in the US could be below average starting next year for several years. This would be due to the fact that a whole lot of people who would have died say 2-5 years from now instead died last year and this year.

That makes sense. That will also put to rest the idea that these people didn't really die of Covid, but *with* Covid. They died because they got Covid...had they not gotten the virus, the great majority of those people would still be with us.

 

[aggiedog]

I have thought this all along. Now, I'm no epidemiologist, but I just can't understand how TRULY asymptomatic spread is possible. Given the huge symptom list that exists for this virus, I question anyone's claim that they are *actually* asymptomatic. I think there isn't such a thing as truly asymptomatic, but there IS a phenomenon of *self reported* asymptomatic. I also think a LOT of this is actually PRE symptomatic spread.

I'm going to say just no. There definitely is a larger number than zero, but I do think there is plenty of completely asymptomatic spread. I'm a surgeon. We started getting 72 hour pre-op PCR tests on all patients for covid 6 weeks ago. We have about a 10% positive rate. Most of those are people who have not had it before, and were not sick at or around the time of testing.

Yes, there are lots of very random symptoms Covid can cause, both small and large, but I think that many, many people really are asymptomatic. To think otherwise is dangerous -"I feel fine, so I can't possibly have it, or give it to someone else."

 

[aggiedog]

As morbid as this sounds, I've seen speculation that the death rate in the US could be below average starting next year for several years. This would be due to the fact that a whole lot of people who would have died say 2-5 years from now instead died last year and this year.

That may be offset by all the other care that has been deferred because patients couldn't or wouldn't come in during the pandemic. I've certainly seen that in my practice. I'm getting some much more serious cases of new diagnosis of tumors, etc, because patients waited, some almost for a year, to come in.

 

[dvcgirl67]

I'm going to say just no. There definitely is a larger number than zero, but I do think there is plenty of completely asymptomatic spread. I'm a surgeon. We started getting 72 hour pre-op PCR tests on all patients for covid 6 weeks ago. We have about a 10% positive rate. Most of those are people who have not had it before, and were not sick at or around the time of testing.

Yes, there are lots of very random symptoms Covid can cause, both small and large, but I think that many, many people really are asymptomatic. To think otherwise is dangerous -"I feel fine, so I can't possibly have it, or give it to someone else."

Totally agree. Asymptomatic spread is a real phenomenon, especially in younger people. I know so many college kids who got tested because they were required to get tested, or because a contact tested positive. Many of them had no symptoms at all. They had no idea.