CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[eMoneyBug]

It seems getting everyone the vaccine is taking so long, we had a year to prepare for a faster process....

 

[ten6mom]

That is interesting because my aunt and her husband are in Arizona and they made an appointment on line for the second shot. Her husband did it through an email link sent to him. They were not able to get it on the same day but my aunt is going to accompany her husband to his appointment on Saturday and see if they will give her the shot then rather than having to come back on Sunday. They did there stuff at the stadium in Phoenix.

Yeah... apparently there are state-run and then county-run. The Phoenix stadium and where I got mine are apparently run by two different governmental bodies, so....

I'll just keep trying!

 

[Wakey]

New discussion on this morning's new about priority being giving the first dose to as many as possible. For States No more holding back the second dose.

Funny how other countries were calling out the UK for this strategy. They’ll all be doing the same soon.
Astrazeneca on first dose protects 100% against hospitalisation and death, has 76% efficacy on first dose, and cuts transmission by two thirds. Research was published yesterday.
UK leading the way in many respects on vaccines. We expect to have all adults done by May.

 

[Jonfw2]

Where, when? Link?
All I’ve read about are assumptions based on in-vitro studies.

 

[Jonfw2]

So now how are the concerning countries fairing?

- Brazil: down 9% from high.
- South Africa: down 74%.
- UK: down 62%.
- US: down 44%.

 

[Jonfw2]

According to Johns Hopkins, the % of positive tests in the US has dropped from 13.7% to 7.8% which is the lowest it has been in three months.

Note: it's tougher for this rate to drop than others, because when there's less virus out there, less people are getting tested, so the denominator drops.

 

[grumpy28]

@Jonfw2 and others.... is your thinking that the "huge surge like nothing we've seen before, coming in 6-14 weeks", not going to happen?

 

[mom2rtk]

@Jonfw2 and others.... is your thinking that the "huge surge like nothing we've seen before, coming in 6-14 weeks", not going to happen?

I take all of these stories with a grain of salt. I remain cautious but so much of what they put out there is about behavior manipulation. They can't have people thinking the worst is over and throwing caution to the wind. So there always has to be a looming crisis.

 

[Jonfw2]

@Jonfw2 and others.... is your thinking that the "huge surge like nothing we've seen before, coming in 6-14 weeks", not going to happen?

I do not believe that will happen, no. I think between the people who've already had it and the amount of people we will have vaccinated by then, AND the warmer weather, it's very hard for a massive surge to take place.

Let's say that 50 million Americans have already had Covid (we count 27 mil) and that this surge is, say 10 weeks away (splitting the difference in your question):

At 1.5 million vaccines a day, ten weeks from now you've got 105 million people with at least one shot, 50 million who've had Covid, and around 30 million who are now already vaccinated. That's 180 million people or so who can't get Covid (or at least won't get severe cases of it). Just the math says it's impossible for this to happen.

Then, you further factor in that of the 130 or so million who've had a shot, you're weighing heavily towards the elderly and potential spreaders, like medical professionals and teachers- further reducing the chance of transmission and absolutely reducing the chances of severe cases and deaths.

Make sense?

 

[huskies90]

@Jonfw2 and others.... is your thinking that the "huge surge like nothing we've seen before, coming in 6-14 weeks", not going to happen?

I'll bite. After our huge surge in the Northeast, we flattened the curve to almost nothing but the health experts were warning about a surge in the Fall/Winter. I said "no way" we are going back to those levels. The health experts were right. If you look back, the health experts have been right more often than people believing what they want to believe. If they are saying there will be a surge, there probably will be one. But if we continue to vaccinate at the rate we are going, the surge (hopefully) will not be as pronounced as what we saw in November/December/January.

ETA: 2 other points. We may still be getting positive test results but they may be connected to someone who has been vaccinated which may result in less severe cases. Also, typically, when viruses mutate, they become weaker. So again, more cases does not necessarily mean more dangerous. We need to keep focus on the severity on the surge (# of hospitalizations) and not just look at case numbers.

 

[Jonfw2]

I'll bite. After our huge surge in the Northeast, we flattened the curve to almost nothing but the health experts were warning about a surge in the Fall/Winter. I said "no way" we are going back to those levels. The health experts were right. If you look back, the health experts have been right more often than people believing what they want to believe. If they are saying there will be a surge, there probably will be one. But if we continue to vaccinate at the rate we are going, the surge (hopefully) will not be as pronounced as what we saw in November/December/January.

The difference is not just the amount who will be vaccinated this time (vs 0) but also the far larger amount of people who've now had Covid.

 

[amylevan]

@Jonfw2 and others.... is your thinking that the "huge surge like nothing we've seen before, coming in 6-14 weeks", not going to happen?

I take issue with the “like nothing we’ve seen before”. A surge? Not out of the question. But we are vaccinating, 6-14 weeks is looking at spring (after the 33” of snow we got the last 3 days, hallelujah!), and that’s just not the way pandemic curves look.

 

[grumpy28]

I appreciate all the replies!

 

[dvcgirl67]

@Jonfw2 and others.... is your thinking that the "huge surge like nothing we've seen before, coming in 6-14 weeks", not going to happen?

I don't think we're going to see that. I think cases will continue to go down as vaccinations go up. Right now there's no evidence that the current variants can escape the vaccines.

I do think that we need to be doing much better surveillance going forward though...so that we don't miss new mutations within these variants...or in new variants that will inevitably arise. I read this morning, that in NYC they are genome testing just 1% of cases. That's pathetic.

Also, I think that we need to understand that unless the entire global population is mostly vaccinated, we'll be dealing with lots of outbreaks of covid. Even with all of the travel bans in place for all of these months, the variants from the U.K., South Africa and Brazil are all here. Imagine when travel really starts to ramp up again. We need to be confident that we don't allow variants with mutations that can escape our current vaccines. That's when we get completely back to normal.....as in 2019 normal. I think that will be awhile. In the meantime though, I think we'll go from a kind of 50% of normal, back to maybe 75-80%.

 

[jlwhitney]

According to Johns Hopkins, the % of positive tests in the US has dropped from 13.7% to 7.8% which is the lowest it has been in three months.

Note: it's tougher for this rate to drop than others, because when there's less virus out there, less people are getting tested, so the denominator drops.

I think there may be something else going on and they changed the threshold for what counts as positive on the pcr tests. The test just says of someone has that virus in the system but not if it’s active or inactive. Viral load is huge on how likely someone is symptomatic or contagious. Someone with a very tiny load isn’t gonna spread as easy as someone with a high load.

WHO has stated that positive with no symptoms needs further investigation. Whether need to wait a few more days and retest or that of far enough out they probably actually don’t have Covid or will transmit it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehil...needed-for-a-focused-response-to-pandemic?amp

 

[wenrob]

@Jonfw2 and others.... is your thinking that the "huge surge like nothing we've seen before, coming in 6-14 weeks", not going to happen?

Honestly I don’t know if it’s wishful thinking on my part or not but I just don’t think it’s going to happen. A surge? Maybe. Catastrophic like nothing we’ve seen before? I’m just not seeing that for the reasons Jonfw2 and others have stated.

 

[mom2rtk]

I think there may be something else going on and they changed the threshold for what counts as positive on the pcr tests. The test just says of someone has that virus in the system but not if it’s active or inactive. Viral load is huge on how likely someone is symptomatic or contagious. Someone with a very tiny load isn’t gonna spread as easy as someone with a high load.

WHO has stated that positive with no symptoms needs further investigation. Whether need to wait a few more days and retest or that of far enough out they probably actually don’t have Covid or will transmit it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehil...needed-for-a-focused-response-to-pandemic?amp

Same thought. I've been watching since that announcement. I wish we would hear more discussion of that.

 

[jlwhitney]

Same thought. I've been watching since that announcement. I wish we would hear more discussion of that.

Same here. But I think things are changing behind the scenes and in time they are gonna admit truly asymptomatic Covid isn’t an issue and they really don’t have it. Presympotomatic yes but that is true with flus and other viruses, but it still drastically drops how many are actually contagious at one time.

Right now this fact doesn’t meet the media’s agenda.

 

[Jonfw2]

Godisney....yesterday you asked me for proof on Pfizer's latest statement on their efficacy. So I provided it. Today, you laughed at one of my posts regarding the potential "surge".

What's up? Let's talk.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Same thought. I've been watching since that announcement. I wish we would hear more discussion of that.

KS reduced their sensitivity on the tests in early Jan with no announcement, It was considered 42 cycles which was apparently one of the most sensitive for the market but back in October that was considered a good thing. COVID testing manufacturers have given guidance on their own cycle threshold as well.

Apparently anything 35 and over is deemed too sensitive. It picks up the virus but is considered past the point of contagious. FWIW KS set their limit at 35 in early Jan but these are only for state run labs, private run labs may have different thresholds. Though IIRC Fauci recommends 34 cycles and below.

This all said I think the issue becomes what our response is. If someone is considered positive with an overly sensitive test then should they still be considered positive in the number? They had the presence of the virus still right? So is the descriptor of "false positive" accurate? BUT if someone is considered positive with an overly sensitive test then the protocol for that should changed based on contagious vs not. Much of our protocols for isolation and quarantine and subsequent testing requirements hasn't made that separation between someone who would be considered positive but is past the point of passing it onto others which is usually the greatest concern.