CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Jonfw2]

Pfizer has moved up their projection on 200 million more doses to the US from late July to late May.

 

[Jonfw2]

This was an interesting read. India’s cases have plummeted and they have no real idea why.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsa...e-mystery-of-indias-plummeting-covid-19-cases

My speculation: a ton more people in India have had it than have been diagnosed. I’m guessing the ability to get a test is very limited vs other countries.

 

[jlwhitney]

There is growing concern about the new variants. They are continuing to evolve and form worrisome mutations that may evade vaccines. I guess the thinking is that we need to get a level of immunity in as many people as possible to slow this down before it takes hold.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/0...in-britain-could-become-resistant-to-vaccines

But the key words are might or may doesn’t mean it will. Media writes things in ways to get attention and too many don’t really read.

 

[wenrob]

I am thinking there may be plummeting cases world wide . There is some science behind it too, all pandemics/epidemics will end even with out vaccines.

plus side feb 1 was like the lowest day in new cases in months

Yeah, our cases have dropped dramatically. So much so I keep thinking they’re going to say that it’s a mistake and do a huge backlog/data dump. The numbers from mid October to December had me horrified, 2-3000 a day and today it was 800 and change. I’m finding myself cautiously optimistic.

 

[trvlgirlmq]

My state, TN, is still in category 1a, 1b but did just lower the age related appointments to 70+. Our local news reported that we might be able to lower to 65 in March! Still no word on other phases opening.

 

[Jonfw2]

For more perspective on the variants, here are the 3 countries most in the cross hairs and what their seven day moving averages have done over the last few weeks:

- US: down 42%
- South Africa: down 71%
- UK: down 61%

Now, I do not claim to be a spaceship doctor here, but those are MASSIVE drops in new cases exactly when we've been told to fear the new variants. I'm not saying anything...I'm just...saying.

 

[TLSnell1981]

Yeah, our cases have dropped dramatically. So much so I keep thinking they’re going to say that it’s a mistake and do a huge backlog/data dump. The numbers from mid October to December had me horrified, 2-3000 a day and today it was 800 and change. I’m finding myself cautiously optimistic.

Maybe we are developing some immunity due to previous infections? Probably a bit too soon to credit vaccines. The 4-8 week cycle seems to be holding...

 

[godisney14]

For more perspective on the variants, here are the 3 countries most in the cross hairs and what their seven day moving averages have done over the last few weeks:

- US: down 42%
- South Africa: down 71%
- UK: down 61%

Now, I do not claim to be a spaceship doctor here, but those are MASSIVE drops in new cases exactly when we've been told to fear the new variants. I'm not saying anything...I'm just...saying.

Are you casually leaving out Brazil?

 

[Heigh-Ho]

I am thinking there may be plummeting cases world wide . There is some science behind it too, all pandemics/epidemics will end even with out vaccines.

plus side feb 1 was like the lowest day in new cases in months

How long this virus stays with us depends on how long it is able to continue using us as hosts from all that I've seen. Each virus and disease is different. Some don't take too much time other take a long time. It could be years for this virus to stop being so widespread with great affect to the world. Or it could be sooner than years. It's already been more than a year, right? We can use vaccines in an attempt to reduce the probability of us being hosts, without us as hosts it can't keep mutating and sticking with us.

AU or NZ are using containment as their main strategy however they get their cases to zero for a while but it seems to keep coming back and both of those countries have extremely strict lockdown and border control. NZ is said to not open their borders until all citizens are vaccinated and they are not in a hurry to do so because of their containment strategy.

Right now there's travel going on but there's a lot of travel restrictions, border closures, testing requirements, quarantines and the virus is still circulating from country to country. I think this is our best choice if we are to help countries out that are suffering with tourism is to keep up these measures like mask wearing in planes and cruises (when that gets going again) and testing requirements and possible quarantine requirements. I don't think we are close to throwing those tactics out yet even for those vaccinated just because we're seeing cases lower.

I'm optimistic as well about cases but I think this virus is throwing people, in the past we didn't have near the same travel abilities. There's more risk for cases popping back up due to that even if one country is able to see a large improvement without wide spread vaccination. It's great news to see cases reduce though I'm choosing to be in the middle here

 

[Jonfw2]

Are you casually leaving out Brazil?

Fair point! So, Brazil IS off their high, but just slightly. Too early to tell if there's any legs to that.

But for my perspective here, I used those three nations because all three experienced a similar spike at almost the same time. Brazil didn't- it's kind of all over the map and its chart looks nothing like the other three. So, if I'm being honest, I don't know what to do with that!

EDIT: They are down 7% as of today.

 

[wenrob]

Maybe we are developing some immunity due to previous infections? Maybe a bit too soon to credit vaccines. The 4-8 week cycle seems to be holding...

Or something. Definitely don’t think it’s the vaccine rollout. Numbers were starting to fall before any that had been given would have any effect and like everywhere else slow to be given. 107,000 in a state that has 3 million plus and tourism.

 

[Jonfw2]

Or something. Definitely don’t think it’s the vaccine rollout. Numbers were starting to fall before any that had been given would have any effect and like everywhere else slow to be given. 107,000 in a state that has 3 million plus and tourism.

I don't disagree. But having said that, this drop- whatever's causing it- is going to help A LOT timing-wise. It buys us valuable time to get needles in arms.

 

[TLSnell1981]

New discussion on this morning's new about priority being giving the first dose to as many as possible. For States No more holding back the second dose.

The second dose is VERY important especially against the née strains. Not sure this is a good idea...

 

[DLgal]

The second dose is VERY important especially against the née strains. Not sure this is a good idea...

People will still get their second doses. You can go up to 8 weeks between doses. That provides a lot of leeway. The thinking here is that there won't be supply issues and everyone will get their second doses within an acceptable window.

 

[TLSnell1981]

People will still get their second doses. You can go up to 8 weeks between doses. That provides a lot of leeway. The thinking here is that there won't be supply issues and everyone will get their second doses within an acceptable window.

But supposedly they are not nearly as effective if not done in a timely manner. Doing things halfway usually doesn't end well.

 

[DLgal]

But supposedly they are not nearly as effective if not done in a timely manner. Doing things halfway usually doesn't end well.

The Moderna vaccine requires 4 weeks between doses. Pfizer, 3 weeks. Both manufacturers said they will be just as effective if the second dose is given within 8 weeks of the first. The body's immune system isn't that time sensitive. The second shot is meant to sort of "test" the system, and it will still be just as effective given 2 months later vs one. The only hitch with this plan is it *could* take longer for people to reach full protection.

However, it seems we will have the supply available so that people won't have to wait more than the recommended amount of time between doses.

 

[Jonfw2]

Are we back on the vaccine supply stuff??? Oh man...don't we have enough issues?

Here's the thing: JNJ will be getting EUA within the next couple of weeks. They will immediately have enough supply to remove any short term constraints. Then, between their 100 million by summer and Pfizer's 200 million by late May, we will have more than enough vaccine to inoculate EVERY ADULT in America.

 

[Jonfw2]

And for what it's worth: Pfizer reiterated AGAIN today that their vaccine is effective against the variants.

 

[Jonfw2]

BREAKING: The Biden administration just announced that the US government will begin to distribute vaccine DIRECTLY to pharmacies.

 

[jlwhitney]

Are we back on the vaccine supply stuff??? Oh man...don't we have enough issues?

Here's the thing: JNJ will be getting EUA within the next couple of weeks. They will immediately have enough supply to remove any short term constraints. Then, between there 100 million by summer and Pfizer's 200 million by late May, we will have more than enough vaccine to inoculate EVERY ADULT in America.

Yes this! Fauci says the same thing .