CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Pyotr]

Someone said on another thread that JnJ stated today that they won't have the amount of vaccine that they said they would? I can't find it in the news, is it true?

I remember reading an article a couple weeks ago reporting it. However, I haven’t seen anything lately. I believe they are still going to be able to deliver 1 billion doses this year.

Edit. Found it.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/13/johnson-johnson-vaccine-production-458941

 

[dvcgirl67]

I so want to remain hopeful, but I keep seeing the reports on how we are in for the “worst yet” as the UK and South African strains start making the rounds in the US.They are saying we are six weeks behind the UK and could expect to see these huge numbers of cases, deaths, and overwhelmed health care systems. However, I’m sure the UK didn’t have as many people vaccinated when their surge started as we should have now, so maybe that will help? I’m really feeling the strain of knowing our family is so many months out before we can get the vaccine

I certainly think that there's reason for hope, no doubt. But we also have to be realistic. I saw a quote today from an expert from Yale that called this time..."the end of the beginning". A Harvard epidemiologist said he was hopeful of a more normal summer with camps and travel...etc. He's less hopeful for that now with the more transmissible variants entering the scene. I saw an article today that 14% of people who recovered from severe Covid have developed diabetes, and they don't know why yet. So there are still reasons for concern.

I watched an older PBS Frontline this weekend...aired in June/July...called, The Virus, What Went Wrong? Sort of an overview of the whole mess from the beginning....other countries as well. Back then they were talking about the horror of hitting 200K cases. Look where we are now. Also, I think we need to understand that even after Americans all have a shot at getting the vaccine, there's going to be a large enough percentage who likely won't....to allow for outbreaks and localized epidemics...especially next fall. We need to get way, *way* better at testing, contract tracing and isolating people to be able to control these as they happen.

In that Frontline piece, they talked about South Korea, and I don't want to down the road of "us versus them"....but.....they did an incredible job by jumping all over this when they had literally 4 cases in their country. They tested like crazy....millions of people, most of them not sick or asymptotic....and that's how they got a hold of this thing. They are a country of 52 million people, and to date they have 1,800 deaths. If we did a comparable job...we'd have about 12,000. We have to look at other countries who did really well, take what we do well, and move forward on a completely new path.

 

[katie01]

I am willing to bet that the UK strain showed up here around the same time as it was discovered there. They were doing much more surveillance than we were, by a LOT. Our case numbers also started to dramatically increase only a few weeks after the spike in UK cases. I think we already had our surge.

oh I sure hope so! I know one of the epidemiologists had predicted awhile back that we’d start to see a dramatic drop in cases by the end of February, and I really, really hope that is true and that our worst surge is behind us

 

[Colleen27]

I so want to remain hopeful, but I keep seeing the reports on how we are in for the “worst yet” as the UK and South African strains start making the rounds in the US.They are saying we are six weeks behind the UK and could expect to see these huge numbers of cases, deaths, and overwhelmed health care systems. However, I’m sure the UK didn’t have as many people vaccinated when their surge started as we should have now, so maybe that will help? I’m really feeling the strain of knowing our family is so many months out before we can get the vaccine

I think there is and always will be a doom-and-gloom bias in the news media, simply because that's what gets views and shares. The "they" that was predicting 2 million dead, the "they" that are saying we may never see normal life resume, the "they" who speculate we'll need immunity passports for everyday life... those are the people who get air time, not those who offer more moderate views and predictions. And when they say we're 6 weeks behind the UK with the new variant, they're just guessing. An educated guess, based on professional experience, but still a guess based on insufficient data. We haven't done enough genetic sequencing to know when the UK variant first arrived here - it was first identified in samples taken in Sept. in the UK but we didn't even start looking for it until Dec., when our winter surge was well underway. They are also assuming the same two-tier state of the virus does/will exist here as did in the UK when the new variant first started spreading: the less infectious early variant vs. the more infectious new variant. However, we have at least one identified home-grown variant that is more transmissible than the original, so the UK strain is arriving in the US to a different competitive environment than exists overseas.

I also think the vaccinations are causing the downward trend. Like the pp stated, it is so hard to wait your turn for the vaccine. We are months away from receiving it and my anxiety grows when I start to think of how far off we are. I know it's a huge undertaking to vaccinate everyone, but I wish it would speed up. I would love to be able to enjoy this summer.

Early on in this mess, my daughter shared with me some scholarly explanations of herd immunity that I think I shared here at some point. The takeaway was, in part, that herd immunity is a dimmer rather than a bipolar switch. I think between our ridiculously high rate of confirmed infection (8% of the population), the vaccine rollout (7% of the population) and the estimated level of cases that escaped detection (approx. 17% of the population, per CDC estimates), we're starting to slide that dimmer down. Several analyses lately have come to similar conclusions - about 1/3 of Americans have now either had covid or been vaccinated. And while that's still a long way from herd immunity, it may be enough to start disrupting contagion chains and slowing the pace of new spread.

Between the continued level of widespread infection and the hopefully accelerating vaccination effort, I think there's reason to be optimistic about summer. Particularly in light of what we now know about indoor vs. outdoor transmission rates and the lower risk of the sorts of activities that are popular in the summer, from patio dining to swimming at the beach to hitting the golf course.

 

[helloconnie]

I sincerely believe this virus is here to stay. I don't see how we eradicate it completely. It will take years to get the entire world vaccinated against this thing and it is already mutating. Plus, you will continue to need to get yearly shots as this is not a one-and-done vaccination. It is going to be like another flu shot.

I am actively tracking the vaccine numbers....

As of Saturday, January 23, we had administered approximately 20,500,000 doses.
As of yesterday, that number has increased to 31,123,299. That is a HUGE jump in one week and averages OVER 1.5 million per day. Seems to me the new administration is already making a difference with their COVID vaccination plan.

The math makes it very possible for the 60% of Americans who said they will get vaccinated to have their first shots by the end of April. (as long as the supply chain from Pfizer and Moderna hold) Pfizer and Moderna are behind on their deliveries due to supply chain issues, but with the Defense Production Act being activated, hopefully this will smooth out those issues.

Adults of 18 in US = 209,128,094
60% who said they would get vaccinated = 125,476,856
Doses administered as of 1/31 = 31,123,299 (with 49,933,250 being distributed)
If vaccinations happen at goal rate of 1,500,000 per day (150,0000,000 in first 100 days) = approximately 92,000,000 vaccinated with 2 shots by April 30
If vaccinations happen at rate of 2 million per day = approximately 114,000,000 vaccinated with 2 shots by April 30

These are all without the J&J vaccine. J&J is behind in production. They pledged 12 million doses by the end of February and up to 100 million by the end of June, in their contract. Now they are saying they will deliver 60 million by the end of April.

So by the end of May, you could have 152 million - 174 million adults vaccinated.

AND, there is still the Aztrazeneca vaccine in which the US has purchased 300 million doses and I have not put into the numbers above because it probably won't be approved in the US until sometime in April.

The 174 million is 83% of all adult Americans but the big question is what about the 39-40% that have said they would not get the vaccine? You can't force them to get it but I would think that there will be a big Public Service Campaign to convince them to get the shot. I am betting that in the end, about 33% of adults will refuse the vaccine. That would mean 67% would get it. That number would be approximately 140,116,000 people. So if J&J delivers at least 30 million vaccines by the beginning of April, we will get the 67% vaccinated by the end of April.

If I was Disney, I would be making plans to return to somewhat normal operations by mid-May, but would not announce anything until the beginning of April sometime when we should know it these numbers will become reality.

 

[Jonfw2]

To the people who are still frightened, especially about a surge due to variants, please let me provide some factual info:

- Both South Africa and the UK are experiencing MASSIVE drops in their numbers right now. Even beyond ours.
- As seen in a post I made this morning, NY state is seeing a huge drop in nursing home cases- they have half as many now as they did at this time last month and the numbers are dropping by the week. This is a sign the vaccines are working.
- Not a single person in any of the vaccine studies has died of covid after being vaccinated. Not one. If it's fair to assume that some of them have been exposed to the new variants, well...again. Not a single death in that group. Out of 75,000.

 

[Jonfw2]

I sincerely believe this virus is here to stay. I don't see how we eradicate it completely. It will take years to get the entire world vaccinated against this thing and it is already mutating. Plus, you will continue to need to get yearly shots as this is not a one-and-done vaccination. It is going to be like another flu shot.

I am actively tracking the vaccine numbers....

As of Saturday, January 23, we had administered approximately 20,500,000 doses.
As of yesterday, that number has increased to 31,123,299. That is a HUGE jump in one week and averages OVER 1.5 million per day. Seems to me the new administration is already making a difference with their COVID vaccination plan.

The math makes it very possible for the 60% of Americans who said they will get vaccinated to have their first shots by the end of April. (as long as the supply chain from Pfizer and Moderna hold) Pfizer and Moderna are behind on their deliveries due to supply chain issues, but with the Defense Production Act being activated, hopefully this will smooth out those issues.

Adults of 18 in US = 209,128,094
60% who said they would get vaccinated = 125,476,856
Doses administered as of 1/31 = 31,123,299 (with 49,933,250 being distributed)
If vaccinations happen at goal rate of 1,500,000 per day (150,0000,000 in first 100 days) = approximately 92,000,000 vaccinated with 2 shots by April 30
If vaccinations happen at rate of 2 million per day = approximately 114,000,000 vaccinated with 2 shots by April 30

These are all without the J&J vaccine. J&J is behind in production. They pledged 12 million doses by the end of February and up to 100 million by the end of June, in their contract. Now they are saying they will deliver 60 million by the end of April.

So by the end of May, you could have 152 million - 174 million adults vaccinated.

AND, there is still the Aztrazeneca vaccine in which the US has purchased 300 million doses and I have not put into the numbers above because it probably won't be approved in the US until sometime in April.

The 174 million is 83% of all adult Americans but the big question is what about the 39-40% that have said they would not get the vaccine? You can't force them to get it but I would think that there will be a big Public Service Campaign to convince them to get the shot. I am betting that in the end, about 33% of adults will refuse the vaccine. That would mean 67% would get it. That number would be approximately 140,116,000 people. So if J&J delivers at least 30 million vaccines by the beginning of April, we will get the 67% vaccinated by the end of April.

If I was Disney, I would be making plans to return to somewhat normal operations by mid-May, but would not announce anything until the beginning of April sometime when we should know it these numbers will become reality.

This is an exceptional analysis. The only thing I'd push back against slightly is the new admin's role- we were absolutely trending towards these numbers when he was inaugurated.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

This is an exceptional analysis. The only thing I'd push back against slightly is the new admin's role- we were absolutely trending towards these numbers when he was inaugurated.

I thought I remembered you saying you were confident the virus would be eradicated and your belief was by fall this would happen and that there would be almost no new cases by fall. Have you changed your outlook on the virus being eradicated? And eradicated by fall? Don't mean to put you on the spot I just remember that being something you were really open about talking about it (which I appreciate) and didn't know if you had changed how you saw it.

 

[katie01]

To the people who are still frightened, especially about a surge due to variants, please let me provide some factual info:

- Both South Africa and the UK are experiencing MASSIVE drops in their numbers right now. Even beyond ours.
- As seen in a post I made this morning, NY state is seeing a huge drop in nursing home cases- they have half as many now as they did at this time last month and the numbers are dropping by the week. This is a sign the vaccines are working.
- Not a single person in any of the vaccine studies has died of covid after being vaccinated. Not one. If it's fair to assume that some of them have been exposed to the new variants, well...again. Not a single death in that group. Out of 75,000.

i appreciate this, thank you

 

[Jonfw2]

I thought I remembered you saying you were confident the virus would be eradicated and your belief was by fall this would happen and that there would be almost no new cases by fall. Have you changed your outlook on the virus being eradicated? And eradicated by fall? Don't mean to put you on the spot I just remember that being something you were really open about talking about it (which I appreciate) and didn't know if you had changed how you saw it.

I stand by this timeline. Maybe I'll be wrong, but so be it.

To be clear: I'm not saying ZERO cases anywhere. I'm saying here in the US it will be a minor inconvenience versus what it is now.

 

[Heigh-Ho]

I stand by this timeline. Maybe I'll be wrong, but so be it.

To be clear: I'm not saying ZERO cases anywhere. I'm saying here in the US it will be a minor inconvenience versus what it is now.

Thank you

 

[anniemae]

What I hate is that I get all calm after reading this thread and I think, "Maybe, just maybe I will get my life back soon." Then I see an article on WebMD titled, "Category 5 COVID hurricane approaches." It goes on to talk about how the worst is coming and how unprepared we all are because we are reveling in the declining cases.

Here.is an excerpt:

Although overall COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have declined during the past few weeks, another storm is brewing on the horizon with the variants, Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. The U.K. variant will likely cause a surge in COVID-19 cases during the next 6 to 14 weeks, he said.

 

[Farro]

What I hate is that I get all calm after reading this thread and I think, "Maybe, just maybe I will get my life back soon." Then I see an article on WebMD titled, "Category 5 COVID hurricane approaches." It goes on to talk about how the worst is coming and how unprepared we all are because we are reveling in the declining cases.

Here.is an excerpt:

Although overall COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have declined during the past few weeks, another storm is brewing on the horizon with the variants, Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. The U.K. variant will likely cause a surge in COVID-19 cases during the next 6 to 14 weeks, he said.

Clicks and ratings!

 

[Jonfw2]

What I hate is that I get all calm after reading this thread and I think, "Maybe, just maybe I will get my life back soon." Then I see an article on WebMD titled, "Category 5 COVID hurricane approaches." It goes on to talk about how the worst is coming and how unprepared we all are because we are reveling in the declining cases.

Here.is an excerpt:

Although overall COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have declined during the past few weeks, another storm is brewing on the horizon with the variants, Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. The U.K. variant will likely cause a surge in COVID-19 cases during the next 6 to 14 weeks, he said.

Opposite of what Fauci and Gottleib both said today. Fauci made a phenomenal point which I had been too dumm to consider: less spread of the virus means less mutation. Viruses need to spread to mutate. The current drop in cases is acting to mitigate the power of these variants.

 

[Mango7100]

While I agree that media puts headlines and writes short blips for ratings, it is also important to not dismiss anything reported as “doom and gloom only for ratings”. I don’t think Osterholm gives a flying flip about news rating. He’s a epidemiologist at U of Mn and is considered an expert in his field. It’s worth listening to him before dismissing anything he says as just clickbait from news media trying to drum up business. He may be right or wrong, but he’s giving an educated opinion that is worth at least considering in looking at the whole interview he gave.

I think the variants have been here long before we realized because we don’t sequence enough. The UK one may be part of the surge we just experienced. I also think it is entirely possible another surge comes as it becomes more dominant and we have spring break, Easter, etc. I think summer will be much closer to normal due to vaccination, we just have to get those vaccines in as many people as fast as possible

 

[Colleen27]

What I hate is that I get all calm after reading this thread and I think, "Maybe, just maybe I will get my life back soon." Then I see an article on WebMD titled, "Category 5 COVID hurricane approaches." It goes on to talk about how the worst is coming and how unprepared we all are because we are reveling in the declining cases.

Here.is an excerpt:

Although overall COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations have declined during the past few weeks, another storm is brewing on the horizon with the variants, Osterholm told host Chuck Todd. The U.K. variant will likely cause a surge in COVID-19 cases during the next 6 to 14 weeks, he said.

I think there will always be those predictions, as long as this remains the top issue on people's minds. And some of the doomsayers may be right from time to time. But keep in mind how many worst-case scenarios since the start of this *haven't* panned out. They outnumber those that have.

The fact is, we're mostly in the dark about what variants drove the winter surge because we're not doing much of that kind of genetic testing. That means we have no idea if we're facing a UK-like spike in the weeks ahead or if we've already faced our UK-like spike and are now on the downside of it. There are smart, qualified, educated people on both sides of that question and only time will tell who is right. In the meantime, highlighting the more pessimistic voices serves two purposes. It feeds the media's need for ratings/views/shares, and it underscores the public health call for people not to abandon caution prematurely. The two interests intersect: epidemiologists wary of giving an already-weary public reason to relax their guard want to make a case for the seriousness of the situation, and the media wants the voices that will present the most scary or shocking views. So those voices are likely to continue to be elevated over those with more hopeful and moderate expectations.

 

[Mango7100]

Opposite of what Fauci and Gottleib both said today. Fauci made a phenomenal point which I had been too dumm to consider: less spread of the virus means less mutation. Viruses need to spread to mutate. The current drop in cases is acting to mitigate the power of these variants.

And yes, I agree that Fauci makes an excellent point that is imperative with viral mutations.

 

[Farro]

While I agree that media puts headlines and writes short blips for ratings, it is also important to not dismiss anything reported as “doom and gloom only for ratings”. I don’t think Osterholm gives a flying flip about news rating. He’s a epidemiologist at U of Mn and is considered an expert in his field. It’s worth listening to him before dismissing anything he says as just clickbait from news media trying to drum up business. He may be right or wrong, but he’s giving an educated opinion that is worth at least considering in looking at the whole interview he gave.

I think the variants have been here long before we realized because we don’t sequence enough. The UK one may be part of the surge we just experienced. I also think it is entirely possible another surge comes as it becomes more dominant and we have spring break, Easter, etc. I think summer will be much closer to normal due to vaccination, we just have to get those vaccines in as many people as fast as possible

I was speaking to that poster in generalities.

And yes, a lot of it is clicks/ratings. They give an eye-catching headline to get you to read and then when you read the article, in a lot of cases (not all), the headline is actually quite misleading.

 

[Colleen27]

Opposite of what Fauci and Gottleib both said today. Fauci made a phenomenal point which I had been too dumm to consider: less spread of the virus means less mutation. Viruses need to spread to mutate. The current drop in cases is acting to mitigate the power of these variants.

We talked about that on this thread a week ago. I'm happy to hear Fauci bringing it up because I don't think it has gotten nearly enough public attention. The whole doom-and-gloom "this is going to be like the flu, we'll need the shot every year and will still have outbreaks" assumes a fairly high rate of mutation. But this virus still appears much more stable than the flu, which reduces the odds of that frequency of meaningful mutation in a scenario of vaccine-limited numbers of cases. If we can get/keep case numbers low, we can slash the odds of needing frequent updates or boosters to the vaccine.

 

[Mango7100]

I was speaking to that poster in generalities.

And yes, a lot of it is clicks/ratings. They give an eye-catching headline to get you to read and then when you read the article, in a lot of cases (not all), the headline is actually quite misleading.

Oh absolutely! Sometimes after I read the full article, its no where near what the headline says.