CDC Notifies States, Large Cities To Prepare For Vaccine Distribution As Soon As Late October

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

It really has, and a plateau isn't really bad or good, it just depends on which direction it goes next. The narrative needs to stop focusing on cases and focus on deaths/hospitilizations.

I think the reason cases get brought up is because it can lead to deaths and hospitalizations especially with deaths lagging behind. So more cases can equal more hospitalizations and more deaths (can not will but it's their precautionary voice coming into play). There's def. a way to talk about that stuff that isn't all "the world is ending, we've slipped" kind of thing but they shouldn't just ignore either if cases are going up. What it means to us over a year into this is we know that cases going up does not only lead to an outcome of large surge, overwhelmed hospitals and large deaths. That's the sort of talk that has to shift and adjust because there are other outcomes out there as well.

 

[jlwhitney]

I think the reason cases get brought up is because it can lead to deaths and hospitalizations especially with deaths lagging behind. So more cases can equal more hospitalizations and more deaths (can not will but it's their precautionary voice coming into play). There's def. a way to talk about that stuff that isn't all "the world is ending, we've slipped" kind of thing but they shouldn't just ignore either if cases are going up. What it means to us over a year into this is we know that cases going up does not only lead to an outcome of large surge, overwhelmed hospitals and large deaths. That's the sort of talk that has to shift and adjust because there are other outcomes out there as well.

But the cases narrative really has changed with so many elderly and higher risk individuals vaccinated these new cases are a larger portion made up of the younger and healthier that are far less likely to die or be hospitalized. We aren't in the same place as even 4-5 months ago.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I just want people to feel comfortable sharing when they can get vaccinated or if they have been vaccinated

Some people getting vaccinated and the actual people who expressed concerned getting vaccinated are not the same. But even if it were it doesn't make their prior thoughts or fears incorrect. How many times has things changed from having enough supply to April to it being May to "we hope to have everyone by July"? Which were different ways of talking about expected supply.

Everywhere is doing it differently and getting different amounts of supply and different types. Getting a lot of J&J can certainly speed up the process of people being able to get it since they are considered fully vaccinated after just one dose, getting less of it or having to go weeks without getting more can slow it down. Plus someone may be able to be vaccinated but a loved one to them still isn't which can still weigh on their minds.

I know you were probably trying to be more comforting than anything. Just hoped we could extend our good vibes and happiness to people without adding a mix of "I told you so" undercurrent in there (which I admit I could have been reading something that wasn't there just came off that way to me).

I've got friends in FL impatiently waiting to get vaccinated. Mine (and now my husband's) phase opens up Monday though we can't search for any appointments (none are open to the new combined phase yet) and I don't anticipate being able to immediately get an appointment come Monday (places have to be accepting Phase 3 and 4 to do that) but I would totally be ecstatic if that were the case. Anywho I know how frustrated she is (and her boyfriend as well) and just because she's happy that all of her friends in the metro she just moved from have a chance to be vaccinated though one of the friend's husband is gen pop so he'll still be a bit it's not like it changes the situation for her. She has no idea when it will be for her and I know she feels it. Had she not moved...she would be eligible for a vaccine in the state she was in prior right now because of her job. *sigh* so I get what you're meaning.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

But the cases narrative really has changed with so many elderly and higher risk individuals vaccinated these new cases are a larger portion made up of the younger and healthier that are far less likely to die or be hospitalized. We aren't in the same place as even 4-5 months ago.

That's why I said

What it means to us over a year into this is we know that cases going up does not only lead to an outcome of large surge, overwhelmed hospitals and large deaths. That's the sort of talk that has to shift and adjust because there are other outcomes out there as well.

But you can't, IMO, just NOT talk about cases either and solely focus on hospitalizations and deaths. Neither extreme works IMO to the public as in either ignoring that cases increase in certain areas OR that hospitalizations and deaths are lower (or higher if that were the case). How you talk about those to me is more important than just trying to choose a side. I'm not interested in being placated or being made to feel afraid. I'm more interesting in a reasoned approach to information. YMMV on this one as everyone is different in how they intake covid-related information.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

https://www.kctv5.com/coronavirus/v...b-5e40-bc84-c94df5df3055.html?block_id=991162
Moderna:

• "will enroll approximately 6,750 children in the US and Canada between the ages of 6 months and 11 years old."
• "The trial is broken into two parts.
  • In part one, different dosages of the vaccine are being tested on the children. Children between the ages of 6 months and 1 year old will receive two doses of the vaccine spaced about 28 days apart at either a 25 or a 50 or a 100 microgram level. Children between the ages of 2 and 11 will receive two doses of the vaccine spaced about 28 days apart at either a 50 or a 100 microgram level. The findings of part one will be used to determine which dose will be used in part two.
  • For part two, the trial will expand to include children who are given a saline placebo, which does nothing. The children will be followed for 12 months after their second injection."

Slight update. Months ago I had mentioned the Children's Mercy hospital in my area was going to be one of the places anticipated for children trials. That is now confirmed:

https://www.kctv5.com/coronavirus/v...2-11eb-a505-07c71d5023a0.html?block_id=991162
The news story gives a bit of info into what those trials are expected to look like as far as symptom tracking in youths.

 

[dvcgirl67]

That's why I said



But you can't, IMO, just NOT talk about cases either and solely focus on hospitalizations and deaths. Neither extreme works IMO to the public as in either ignoring that cases increase in certain areas OR that hospitalizations and deaths are lower (or higher if that were the case). How you talk about those to me is more important than just trying to choose a side. I'm not interested in being placated or being made to feel afraid. I'm more interesting in a reasoned approach to information. YMMV on this one as everyone is different in how they intake covid-related information.

You are a woman who just wants the facts....and I respect that.

 

[Pyotr]

This morning the governor announced that Florida will not be getting any J&J for the “foreseeable future.” Instead he recommends getting the Pfizer or moderna vaccines. This only applies to the State supply and not to the FEMA sites or the pharmacy program (CVS, Walgreens, Walmart) which get their shipments directly to the federal government.

 

[Colleen27]

It really has, and a plateau isn't really bad or good, it just depends on which direction it goes next. The narrative needs to stop focusing on cases and focus on deaths/hospitilizations.

I don't think deaths are a particularly good area of focus because of the long lag before they start to increase - 3 to 4 weeks after cases start rising, usually. That means by the time deaths start raising a red flag, there's a lot of serious illness and death already "baked in" by past decisions, even if new restrictions are imposed. But I do think hospitalizations might be a more important indicator than cases as two factors begin to have more influence on the shape of the pandemic: the increasing proportion of people who are fully or partially vaccinated and the increasing use of surveillance testing as travel and recreation and other activities begin to resume. The former is likely to have a major effect on how many people get seriously ill and the latter is likely to shift the overall proportion of cases that are caught by testing as well as the dynamics around the positivity percentage, so case counts won't have quite the same context or meaning as they did earlier in the pandemic.

That said, my state is one of those where cases are rising and hospitalizations are rising right along side them, so we're obviously not quite at that point yet where case counts begin to diverge from measures of serious illness. And my county is, right now, the very model of exponential growth: since the start of this month, cases per 100K have doubled every week, from 11 on March 1 to 22 on March 8 to 49 on March 15. Our highest-ever rate was 85 per 100K in early December and based on the case counts so far this week, I think we'll be right back there in a week or two. And as much as I tend to think the low vaccine availability in my county is an issue, the state data suggests that the difference between best and worst rates doesn't matter much - several of the counties with the highest and fastest-rising case rates are also among those with the highest vaccination rates (which, right now, is about 1/3 having one dose and 1/5 fully vaccinated).

 

[punkin]

My state is ticking up in cases and our positivity is now over 4%.

 

[ShirikiUtundu]

My state is ticking up in cases and our positivity is now over 4%.

Yep, and we lifted restrictions...2 weeks ago. It's going to take a few more weeks of data and comparison of vaccination rates to testing rates to know if this is a true upward trend. I hope for everyone's sake it's not.

 

[Evita_W]

My state is ticking up in cases and our positivity is now over 4%.

4% is nothing, look at the positivity rates over the last few months out here in California, who has had one of the tightest lockdowns in the country, we easily have had over 10% for way too long. Restrictions do not always equal reduction in cases or even deaths, our death rate has been pathetically high as well.

 

[punkin]

4% is nothing, look at the positivity rates over the last few months out here in California, who has had one of the tightest lockdowns in the country, we easily have had over 10% for way too long. Restrictions do not always equal reduction in cases or even deaths, our death rate has been pathetically high as well.

I don't disagree with you. I'm just posting numbers because I really don't like that they're heading in the wrong direction. I'm still hoping that the vaccine will cause a turn around. Maryland (where I live) is not doing very well in vaccine distribution either.

 

[KrazeeK120]

I am completely happy for everyone who has gotten vaccinated, really!

But it’s so hard to sit and wait. I am in no way, shape, or form eligible for the vaccine yet. I have no co-morbities, I’m young(ish, lol), and I don’t have a job.

My family has been very careful throughout the pandemic and I admit it is tough to watch people who haven’t been careful at all (some of whom have already had Covid) be able to be vaccinated while I’m still sitting here being super careful.

I realize that the vaccinations need to be given in a certain order, and I know I’m being whiny. It’s just getting tough for it to not be my turn. President Biden says anyone can sign up come 5/1, right? So I guess that’s the date I’m looking forward to!

 

[Jonfw2]

One more for the "mixed message" pile:

The Biden admin is looking to start relax Covid-related travel restrictions in mid-May.

 

[DLgal]

I got my son's 2 shots scheduled just after midnight last night via CVS. His first shot will be Monday!

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

My family has been very careful throughout the pandemic and I admit it is tough to watch people who haven’t been careful at all (some of whom have already had Covid) be able to be vaccinated while I’m still sitting here being super careful.

I kinda put a spin to it...if you haven't been as careful better that you be protected right? Like if you're going to drink have a DD at least kind of thing if that makes any sense. Not that it makes it any easier to sit and wait (I was in the last phase before gen pop so I get it and if it weren't for 1 underlying medical condition I'd be in gen pop) it's just the way I choose to look at it because I think otherwise I'd be going crazy nuts by now lol.

Then again we know that "careful" is a totally subjective and that's not a con against you it's just someone's careful is someone else's and vice versa.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

And as much as I tend to think the low vaccine availability in my county is an issue, the state data suggests that the difference between best and worst rates doesn't matter much - several of the counties with the highest and fastest-rising case rates are also among those with the highest vaccination rates (which, right now, is about 1/3 having one dose and 1/5 fully vaccinated).

Do they have any speculations as to why? Are those counties with high and fast increase in cases the most populated ones and the issue just that there's not enough vaccine per their population to provide a bigger buffer to spread?

 

[Jonfw2]

Interesting thought question...if you're unvaccinated, would you rather:

A) run into Target for a few items, following all safety protocols.
or
B) spend the whole day unmasked with a fully vaccinated person?

 

[Heigh-Ho]

Interesting thought question...if you're unvaccinated, would you rather:

A) run into Target for a few items, following all safety protocols.
or
B) spend the whole day unmasked with a fully vaccinated person?

Those don't appear to be talking about the same thing. Is this something you came up with or something you were reading about? Trying to figure out what the correlation between running an errand and spending a day with a vaccinated person. Sorry just confused here!

I would think there's already a good number of people doing both or have already been running errands or been around someone all day unmasked who wasn't vaccinated (or was vaccinated) depending on the circumstance.

 

[Jonfw2]

Those don't appear to be talking about the same thing. Is this something you came up with or something you were reading about? Trying to figure out what the correlation between running an errand and spending a day with a vaccinated person. Sorry just confused here!

I would think there's already a good number of people doing both or have already been running errands or been around someone all day unmasked who wasn't vaccinated (or was vaccinated) depending on the circumstance.

it's just a "would you rather". Which one would you be more comfortable with and/or consider more safe?