CDC Director: Impending Doom

[RamblingMad]

That is again is totally incorrect. Do the math. We have 155 million already with at least one shot, there are 5 more weeks to get the first shot so you can get the second shot in 8 weeks. 5 weeks x 7=35 days. The US is averaging 3 million shots a day. 35x3=105 million, so 105 million and 155 million already who have received shots=260 million, divide by 330 million people =78%. Maybe there will be some anti vaxxers, but I do not think it is nearly as great as 30 percent. Math does happen to be my strong point.

There are 209 million people in the US that are 18+. 331 million people live here. You need 198 million people vaccinated to get to a 60% vaccination rate. It doesn’t matter what the run rate is for vaccinations. You can’t get to your numbers. You need 95% of the adult population to get it. That’s not going to happen.

 

[Colleen27]

If my guess that it's the UK variant spreading like wildfire in MI is true, then MI should look a lot like the UK before it shutdown.

Except that Michigan has about a third of the population at least partially vaccinated, while the UK had administered about a million doses for a population of 66 million when the same variant started spreading there. That should make a difference... and at least so far, does appear to be making a difference in critical illness (ICU and ventilators) and deaths, even though cases and hospitalizations are high. But it is still too early to say anything definitive. If the pattern tracked with the last surge, we'd only have started seeing the increase in deaths in the last two weeks and haven't yet, but that's a small enough window that reporting delays or other data-collection issues could factor in. In another two weeks, we'll have a better sense of how much impact having the majority of the most vulnerable groups vaccinated has.

That is again is totally incorrect. Do the math. We have 155 million already with at least one shot, there are 5 more weeks to get the first shot so you can get the second shot in 8 weeks. 5 weeks x 7=35 days. The US is averaging 3 million shots a day. 35x3=105 million, so 105 million and 155 million already who have received shots=260 million, divide by 330 million people =78%. Maybe there will be some anti vaxxers, but I do not think it is nearly as great as 30 percent. Math does happen to be my strong point.

Okay, but you're assuming that everyone is eligible and willing and that supply is the only constraint. We have about 64 million people who aren't age-eligible right now. So if every single age-eligible person were medically eligible and willing to be vaccinated, we could *just* touch that 78% mark. But polling indicates that we have about another 65 million people who are unwilling to get the vaccine. Which suggests we're likely to plateau at around 60% vaccine coverage once supply is sufficient to meet demand, at least until vaccine options begin to be approved for the ~20% of the population that is currently too young to get it.

Some places already have more supply than demand for vaccine doses. By the end of this month or middle of next, that should be the case pretty much everywhere. But that doesn't mean we're going to reach population-wide vaccination targets.

 

[Colleen27]

There are 209 million people in the US that are 18+. 331 million people live here. You need 198 million people vaccinated to get to a 60% vaccination rate. It doesn’t matter what the run rate is for vaccinations. You can’t get to your numbers. You need 95% of the adult population to get it. That’s not going to happen.

Pretty sure your source for that first number is off. I found it too, because it is the first Google result and it says it is based on Census data, but when you click through to the full breakdown it lists the total population as 280M. So it must be old data.

In looking for the age breakdown of the population, I came across this site which uses 2019 data and says we have 73m people under 18 but also breaks down by age bracket, which is how I arrived at roughly 65m that are vaccine-ineligible because of age (15-17 is the only category that falls into both groups, so I split it in thirds and counted 15 as ineligible, 16 & 17 as eligible). By that calculation, we have 266m age-eligible people and would need 74% of them to accept the vaccine to reach 60% coverage population-wide. That is within reach even in the adults-only vaccine phase but is probably the very upper limit of where we can get before vaccines are approved for use in younger people, unless something significant changes with regard to vaccine hesitancy rates.

 

[sam_gordon]

When you say months that implies 3 or more months.

No. "Months" simply means "more than one month". It could be two, it could be three, it could be 36. And yes, you can use "8 weeks" instead of "2 months" or "365 days" instead of "one year". It's how you want to spin it. Ever hear those commercials that say "For pennies a day, you can... " Doesn't sound like much, does it? But what if it's 100 or 1000 "pennies a day"?

Why do you think car ads say "60 months financing" instead of "5 year financing"? Because they want people to focus on the term, not the number. "Weeks" sounds better than "months" even though, once you add the actual quantity, are the same thing.

 

[godisney14]

That is again is totally incorrect. Do the math. We have 155 million already with at least one shot, there are 5 more weeks to get the first shot so you can get the second shot in 8 weeks. 5 weeks x 7=35 days. The US is averaging 3 million shots a day. 35x3=105 million, so 105 million and 155 million already who have received shots=260 million, divide by 330 million people =78%. Maybe there will be some anti vaxxers, but I do not think it is nearly as great as 30 percent. Math does happen to be my strong point.

Correction: About 100 million doses administered, not 150 million. The daily vaccination MA is 2.5 million, not 3 million. Many polls show the “will not get vaccine” group at about 25%.

 

[chickapin parterre]

.....and spring break and all those home repairs lowes and home depot here in YUma running at 50% unmasked.....did not see a soul today in the grocery store.

 

[VandVsmama]

Dr. Doom steps in it again. They really need to find a different spokesperson.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/vaccinated-people-spread-virus-dont-121235173.html

 

[KingAugie]

Dr. Doom steps in it again. They really need to find a different spokesperson.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/vaccinated-people-spread-virus-dont-121235173.html

The CDC is "walking back" comments? Color me surprised.

 

[snappy]

Dr. Doom steps in it again. They really need to find a different spokesperson.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/vaccinated-people-spread-virus-dont-121235173.html

Or try harder to keep her on script.

 

[Joe in VA]

Correction: About 100 million doses administered, not 150 million. The daily vaccination MA is 2.5 million, not 3 million. Many polls show the “will not get vaccine” group at about 25%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
7 day moving average is 2.99M per day and total is 158M administered per Bloomberg.

 

[jlwhitney]

FL heatlh department said that 16+ will be eligible in FL on April 5th; the only caveat is 16-18 must get Pfeizer.

https://www.claycountygov.com/community/emergency-management
There are a lot of spots open at the Clay County GCS location April 5-8; they offer the Pfeizer, so DS has an appointment there on Tuesday..

Clay County is offering vaccines at the county fair, which started yesterday.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1377704822464339968

*April 1, 2021, at 3:30 p.m.* In partnership w/
@clayfair
&
@HealthyFla
,
@ClayCounty_EM
will have a COVID-19 vaccine site at the Clay County Fair. This site will be located at the first aid station, & vaccines are available to all persons 40+. http://Alert.ClayCountyGov.com.

We were at the fair today and saw the spot for the vaccines and it wasn't busy at all, the fair on the other hand was slammed packed and so much fun.

 

[penn19]

The CDC is "walking back" comments? Color me surprised.

Can’t imagine why people ask questions.

 

[godisney14]

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/
7 day moving average is 2.99M per day and total is 158M administered per Bloomberg.

I incorrectly commentedWhat I mean what ~100M fully vaccinated.



But, the 7-day MA is not 3 million (yet).

 

[Praying Colonel]

I'm probably the only person who thought of this when I heard the word "doom":

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

That is again is totally incorrect. Do the math. We have 155 million already with at least one shot, there are 5 more weeks to get the first shot so you can get the second shot in 8 weeks. 5 weeks x 7=35 days. The US is averaging 3 million shots a day. 35x3=105 million, so 105 million and 155 million already who have received shots=260 million, divide by 330 million people =78%. Maybe there will be some anti vaxxers, but I do not think it is nearly as great as 30 percent. Math does happen to be my strong point.

3 assumptions you made where this comes apart:
1. The 3 million shots a day includes people getting their second dose. You did not take that into account as you assumed all 105 million doses would go to first doses.
2. You have to leave enough time for the new people to get a second dose. 59-35=24 days remaining. You would have to administer 4.4 million doses daily just to cover that 105 million in that time period.
3. 158 million doses have been administered which includes people's second doses. 101.8 million people have received at least 1 dose and 58 million have been fully vaccinated. Reference: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

More realistic math:
-43.8 million will get their second dose in the coming month, bringing 18+ vaccination percentage to 39.2%.
-3 million doses (higher than current but it is trending upward) will be administered per day, allowing 90 million doses over the next 30 days.
-90-43.8 gives us 46.2 million doses that are administered to first timers over that 30 day period.
-There are ~258 million people above the age of 18 who we plan to vaccinate.
-At the end of May we should have ~148 million people fully vaccinated and another 46.2 million that have received their first dose. 148/258 million gives us 57.3% of 18+ fully vaccinated and 194.2/258 gives us 75.2% of 18+ that have received at least one dose.

But what do I know, math isn't my strong point. I'm only an Engineer.

Well math does not lie. If the numbers decrease and I am off in 8 weeks I will be the first to admit it. Until then, I am going to stick with the historical numbers of the last 8 weeks to make projections for the next 8 weeks.

Math doesn't lie but it can lead you astray when your assumptions aren't good going in. Garbage in, garbage out.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Too much math all around going on for a Friday

**Said in a light-hearted manner

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Too much math all around going on for a Friday

**Said in a light-hearted manner

Happy friday!

 

[katie01]

Just wanted to say congrats for having a 14 year old who is so responsible. Obviously raised right!

Aw, thank you, we have done our best, and we are blessed by them as well

 

[AvidDisReader]

3 assumptions you made where this comes apart:
1. The 3 million shots a day includes people getting their second dose. You did not take that into account as you assumed all 105 million doses would go to first doses.
2. You have to leave enough time for the new people to get a second dose. 59-35=24 days remaining. You would have to administer 4.4 million doses daily just to cover that 105 million in that time period.
3. 158 million doses have been administered which includes people's second doses. 101.8 million people have received at least 1 dose and 58 million have been fully vaccinated. Reference: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations

More realistic math:
-43.8 million will get their second dose in the coming month, bringing 18+ vaccination percentage to 39.2%.
-3 million doses (higher than current but it is trending upward) will be administered per day, allowing 90 million doses over the next 30 days.
-90-43.8 gives us 46.2 million doses that are administered to first timers over that 30 day period.
-There are ~258 million people above the age of 18 who we plan to vaccinate.
-At the end of May we should have ~148 million people fully vaccinated and another 46.2 million that have received their first dose. 148/258 million gives us 57.3% of 18+ fully vaccinated and 194.2/258 gives us 75.2% of 18+ that have received at least one dose.

But what do I know, math isn't my strong point. I'm only an Engineer.


Math doesn't lie but it can lead you astray when your assumptions aren't good going in. Garbage in, garbage out.
The only mistake I made was in not factoring in the 60 millions under the age of 14. If you re read my post I used 5 weeks and specially mentioned that it leaves 3 weeks to get the second shot. When I mentioned 150 million people I stated had received at least one shot, meaning everyone who had gotten the shot at that time would get there second shot prior to 5/31. The reports I see show 3 million approx a day get there first shot, some day a little more, some a little less. So as of today, a total of at least 165 million have gotten at least on shot (50% of the entire population) and 65 million are fully vaccinated or 20% of the entire population. This is as of 4/4. So on my amended figures of some 270 million adult population, by 5/31 will need to have 202.5 million to be at 75% fully vaccinated.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

The only mistake I made was in not factoring in the 60 millions under the age of 14. If you re read my post I used 5 weeks and specially mentioned that it leaves 3 weeks to get the second shot.

You used 5 weeks at peak volume giving only first doses to people (no consideration for second doses). You then gave that same pool only 3 weeks to get their second dose (which further escalated the volume of doses per day).

When I mentioned 150 million people I stated had received at least one shot, meaning everyone who had gotten the shot at that time would get there second shot prior to 5/31. The reports I see show 3 million approx a day get there first shot, some day a little more, some a little less. So as of today, a total of at least 165 million have gotten at least on shot (50% of the entire population) and 65 million are fully vaccinated or 20% of the entire population. This is as of 4/4. So on my amended figures of some 270 million adult population, by 5/31 will need to have 202.5 million to be at 75% fully vaccinated.

As mentioned in my previous post, your figures are wrong. 167 million doses administered with 107 million people having received at least one dose. The remainder of doses administered were people's second doses. The 2 figures ("At Least One Dose" and "Fully Vaccinated") don't add to a total slightly higher than doses administered because J&J is a single dose vaccine.
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
The data is well presented on the CDC website: