I have no idea if our experience last year was typical, but this is what we experienced in December 2009. We were in WDW from 12/17-12/28. We found that the CP stand by line was huge before Christmas, but after 12/25 the stand by line for the early show was very small.
I do not like to have plans up in the air, knew we would want to see the CP, and knew we would never stand in a protracted line. So I opted for the package, paid out of pocket, and we did the German buffet for a late lunch and the 5 pm show on 12/26. Every stand by person was admitted that day.
However, we really enjoyed the meal and Christmas show at the German restaurant and having the CP tickets was peace of mind so no regrets on our part about paying for the package.