I will echo what others say and tell you it depends. We have had lots of luck with the WL though.
We purchased our BW points last year and closed in June. I called MS and asked for a 1 bedroom Standard view at BW for 9 nights in late August. It was not available, so I booked preferred view and was put on a waitlist.
A couple of weeks later MS called and I got ALL 9 nights in a Standard view 1 br on the waitlist. It saved me a bunch of points.
But that was for a stay in Late August....
For Nov 2006 during F&W I already booked my 2 br standard at the 11 month window. Then we added a studio for 1 night, and I was able to get a standard studio. Then I asked for a BW view, and was put on the WL. Last week they called and said it was available on the WL. I turned it down (please don't flame me, our flight will be in very late).
BUT...
I have had a waitlist for ANY studio at BW or BCV for 5 days in Nov (9th to 14th). I have yet to get it. In addition, I can't even get the
DVC member discount those nights. I doubt I will get anything on this because it's prime time. This is for family members so I had them make a reservation at the BW Inn just in case.
The bottom line is it depends on when you are going, and whether you can take your chances with the WL.