Can someone check my math/logic

[hillview]

So in investigating the DVC:
I think we'd want the BLT -- I really love the monorail and a new place etc

We are a family of 4. An appeal of the DVC is having a LITTLE privacy so think a 1 br. Our kids are currently 1 and 3.

So price per point (with the incentive) is $104
I figure a good place to estimate is 288 points (MK view for a week at mid season rate)
Total = (just under) 30k!-- 28,952 exactly

When we just stayed at the GF it was 450/night
So we'd be able to get 66.56 nights at CURRENT GF rates with the 30k
If we went a week a year, we'd pay for it in approx 9.5 years

So I think there are some gaps in my math/logic. Can someone please advise? We'd still do some form or meal plan -- we love the character dining!!
TIA!
/hillary

 

[YourEveryDayAdam]

you're almost there. You're not taking in to account the annual dues you would have to pay on the points. For 288 points, your annual dues would be $1,056.96.

See this spreadsheet, and the many more examples I came up with in this link to help you compare costs and determine the value of DVC:

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2137102

If you are comparing MK view 1BR with a regular GF room, then you are comparing apples-to-oranges. There are many differences:

Positives:
MK view
More space
Individual privacy
2 bathrooms
full kitchen
washer&dryer
WILL save you money if you go every year, in the long run (in almost every scenario)
ALL the DVC benefits (discounts, special events, pool hopping, etc.)
SOOOO flexible: as your vacation needs change, your DVC can adapt.

Negatives:
Non-DVC reservations are typically more flexible and easier to get on short notice
Financially committed to going every/every-other year

Neutral and/or "Depends on your preference":
Theming. GF has a different theme from CR and BLT will likely have it's own subtleties.
Non-daily mousekeeping (some people like it, some don't...most i've seen is that people think it will be a problem, but grow to like not having the daily interruption).

i'm sure there are other positives, negatives, and "depends on your prefences" that i've missed.

 

[drusba]

Not sure of the $104 figure (I thought it was only $98 now with incentive or maybe that is just when you are a referral). Othwerwise the math is technically correct but some things are left out in evaluating the situation if you are doing a comparison:

1. You have not factored in DVC annual dues. At BLT that is just under $3.70 a point per year right now (and likely to go up a little annually).

2. A 1BR and a regular room at GF cannot really be compared as the same. (If you got a 1BR suite at GF, it would be close to $1,000 a night).

3. Paying cash through Disney for a room means you get daily maid service. DVC does not have daily maid service (you get a trash and towel replacement on 4th day you are there unless you stay 8 nights or more in which case you get full cleaning on 4th day and trash and towell on eighth). The value of that at true cost is unclear but with DVC you can purchase full cleaning for any day and it costs $30 for a studio and $45 for 1BR so that is potentially an amount built into the GF room cost that you would need to take out to compare to DVC.

4. Your 9.5 years is not actually correct because you would be paying the DVC price up front and the GF room cost is over years and thus you need to do a net present value adjustment.

5. You should not buy exact number of points you need for your usual week. You should really buy somewhat more. Total points for resort cannot go up in any year but they can shift points among seasons or nights -- they just recently did so by raising weekday points and lowering weekend and changing some weeks a little with the result that number of points needed for a week in a 1BR for a number of times of year went up a handful of points (in fact are you looking at the 2010 point chart when determining points needed because that one shows the change) You should always consider buying some extra points as a hedge against the possiblity of another point shift.

 

[disneynutz]

The biggest factor that no one talks about is that as a owner, you will probably vacation at least once a year for several years. That can be good or bad. The more you vacation, the more money you spend on things like food, car rental, airfare, and T shirts and park admission. It all adds up and depending on your lifestyle, it can add a few thousand dollars to your yearly expenses.