While it's possible to get just about any room type with an AP discount at one time or another, nothing is guaranteed. Disney will make rooms available under any discount promotions based on what they need to sell at the time. I got a deluxe room at WL a few years ago with an AP discount (before they were concierge), but they don't come up very often. Having a room only reservation already booked does not increase the odds of getting an AP discount. Many people were disapointed last December because they made reservations in advance at WL hoping to apply the discount, and then there were very few WL rooms available under the code when it was released, so most people either had to pay rack rate or change resorts. Your best bet is to book what you can afford, and then keep checking back, especially right when any codes come out, to see what you might be able to upgrade to.