Buying DVC dilemma

[Dean]

I disagree. I think if one knows themselves and bothers to research, a person can make a reasonable decision without experience. I think MOST DVCers have, and MOST have been content.

I also think that since DVC continues to open new resorts, there is always the possibility that the next resort to open will be your favorite. There aren't a lot of owners of OKW or BWV on here saying they wish they would have waited for the Poly. They are also going to continue to make changes to existing resorts - if you bought SSR because you love the old Pleasure Island, you may still be disappointed. I much preferred the old BWV decor - I hate the generic hotel room feel and if I were buying now I wouldn't. And they'll continue to make changes to the parks. If you are going to do this, do it. Don't go into analysis paralysis over it. DVC and Disney will change over the contract life anyway.

I learned to make huge multi million dollar purchase decisions off a process called Kepner Tragoe. As long as you can identify your wants and needs, and research to measure them against each other - you can have enough information to make an intelligent decision. I have yet to be steered wrong in twenty years of use (I've been steered wrong when executives have overridden the outcome) And plenty of information is available about DVC resorts.

One needs information and experience to make a truly informed decision. "I've always wanted to stay there" isn't good enough IMO. Now some will accidentally hit it but most won't. I'd guess that significantly less than half of those who investigate here make a truly informed decision based on actual knowledge and without knowledge and experience, they won't make an informed decisions.

 

[kboo]

I actually agree with both @crisi and @Dean !! I tend to think most buyers on the DIS are more informed than the average DVC buyer, and if you spend most of your time on the DIS you can start to think that most of the DVC buyers are as well-informed as the ones who post regularly here. But join any of the DVC FB groups and ... oh man ... there is a lot of, "if you wouldn't buy a used car, why would you buy resale" when people talk about buying DVC. I rented points and stayed at DVC villas several times over the last 4 years, and did actually "purchasing DVC" research in the last year or so... (in fact just started thinking about buying a few months before the 4/4/16 date - but knew I would have made a bad decision if I rushed into buying something before then).

Also, to both of your points, there is a point where one is "informed enough" to make a pretty good decision. I will probably always wonder if we made the right decision NOT buying VGF since if money and #points were no object, we'd want to stay there *most* of the time. But there are lots of places we will be happy, and for us, BLT was the best combination of wants and needs with very little drawbacks, in our minds. But that will differ for each potential buyer. For us - certain conveniences like walking distance to MK and the potential to take a bus to anywhere on Disney property (from the bus stop at MK) far outweighs the general complaints about the theming there (which I happen to like, anyway), and that outweighs the fact that I like 1900 Park Fare better than Chef Mickey's.

That said - I do think there's some "experience" that is more valuable than others - like: I wish I'd had more studio stays before we made the decision to buy, and wish I'd seen a BLT studio before deciding. Because I would have bought enough points for a 1BR. But - after buying enough points to stay sometimes in a studio and sometimes in a 1BR, even though we have stayed in neither so far (only experience was a 2BR, and at the hotel), and after watching some YouTube walkthroughs, I'm starting to think we would be cramped in a studio.

I also think there's some self-... what's the term? Now that I've bought into BLT, I'm going to find reasons to confirm why I made a good choice. So I'm likely to weigh the negatives less and focus more on the things that will confirm that BLT is right for me. But if someone comes on here and does their diligence and asks a lot of questions, they're likely to get pretty good answers from which they can make a pretty well-informed decision.

On the FB groups, there are inevitable posts like, "How come I can't book a 1BR at Poly??" and "my guide told me I could use my points anywhere at 7 months! Why can't I get a room at Grand Floridian for Christmas with my SSR points?? No fair!"

 

[Wakey]

Ironically I can get a 1 bed using my Saratoga points at VGF (and enough points for a 1 bed cost me less than what a VGF owner paid for enough points for a studio), in off season, easier than an owner can get a studio at 7 months and less.

 

[Dean]

I actually agree with both @crisi and @Dean !! I tend to think most buyers on the DIS are more informed than the average DVC buyer, and if you spend most of your time on the DIS you can start to think that most of the DVC buyers are as well-informed as the ones who post regularly here. But join any of the DVC FB groups and ... oh man ... there is a lot of, "if you wouldn't buy a used car, why would you buy resale" when people talk about buying DVC. I rented points and stayed at DVC villas several times over the last 4 years, and did actually "purchasing DVC" research in the last year or so... (in fact just started thinking about buying a few months before the 4/4/16 date - but knew I would have made a bad decision if I rushed into buying something before then).

Also, to both of your points, there is a point where one is "informed enough" to make a pretty good decision. I will probably always wonder if we made the right decision NOT buying VGF since if money and #points were no object, we'd want to stay there *most* of the time. But there are lots of places we will be happy, and for us, BLT was the best combination of wants and needs with very little drawbacks, in our minds. But that will differ for each potential buyer. For us - certain conveniences like walking distance to MK and the potential to take a bus to anywhere on Disney property (from the bus stop at MK) far outweighs the general complaints about the theming there (which I happen to like, anyway), and that outweighs the fact that I like 1900 Park Fare better than Chef Mickey's.

That said - I do think there's some "experience" that is more valuable than others - like: I wish I'd had more studio stays before we made the decision to buy, and wish I'd seen a BLT studio before deciding. Because I would have bought enough points for a 1BR. But - after buying enough points to stay sometimes in a studio and sometimes in a 1BR, even though we have stayed in neither so far (only experience was a 2BR, and at the hotel), and after watching some YouTube walkthroughs, I'm starting to think we would be cramped in a studio.

I also think there's some self-... what's the term? Now that I've bought into BLT, I'm going to find reasons to confirm why I made a good choice. So I'm likely to weigh the negatives less and focus more on the things that will confirm that BLT is right for me. But if someone comes on here and does their diligence and asks a lot of questions, they're likely to get pretty good answers from which they can make a pretty well-informed decision.

On the FB groups, there are inevitable posts like, "How come I can't book a 1BR at Poly??" and "my guide told me I could use my points anywhere at 7 months! Why can't I get a room at Grand Floridian for Christmas with my SSR points?? No fair!"

No doubt there's a point where one has to fish or cut bait, we do see both sides, those that buy without proper knowledge/information and those that should have bought 10 years ago. The problem is that if one doesn't buy when they should have, the dollars and loss is marginal nd the risk is simply what they didn't save but if they make a bad decision going in, it can easily be a 5 figure mistake AND cause them significant consternation going forward. We see it all the time here where a new buyer, one who investigated here, asks a question they should have known before they bought. Human nature being what it is, even many of those that made a less than good decision will admit it even to themselves. Still, the saying that a bad day on vacation is better than a good day at work comes to mind (thought it's not completely accurate). I strongly believe that one who decides to buy in without enough info to be reasonably certain should buy something along the lines of SSR even if it ends up being their worst possibly choice than say VGF. The best compromise for that issue is usually BLT.

Ironically I can get a 1 bed using my Saratoga points at VGF (and enough points for a 1 bed cost me less than what a VGF owner paid for enough points for a studio), in off season, easier than an owner can get a studio at 7 months and less.

I was going to make that point and forgot to, one I've made a number of times for buying SSR using for AKV. For AKV it's almost always cheaper in the long run to buy SSR and use for AKV standard view than buying AKV and using for value. The crossover is around 2/3 of the time for value but the reality is most won't use it that way and essentially none as a new buyer. Certainly for someone who adds an additional home resort specifically for value, that can be different but often it isn't even then. I haven't run the numbers on SSR used for a 1 BR vs VGF used for a studio but generalizing I'd say it's in the 50% more range and about 2/3 of what buying VGF would be for a 1 BR. Obviously a little more in favor of owning VGF points for standard and a little less for lake view.

 

[kboo]

Ironically I can get a 1 bed using my Saratoga points at VGF (and enough points for a 1 bed cost me less than what a VGF owner paid for enough points for a studio), in off season, easier than an owner can get a studio at 7 months and less.

@.landry is running these numbers based on prices now and I think she'd agree w you.

No doubt there's a point where one has to fish or cut bait, we do see both sides, those that buy without proper knowledge/information and those that should have bought 10 years ago. The problem is that if one doesn't buy when they should have, the dollars and loss is marginal nd the risk is simply what they didn't save but if they make a bad decision going in, it can easily be a 5 figure mistake AND cause them significant consternation going forward. We see it all the time here where a new buyer, one who investigated here, asks a question they should have known before they bought. Human nature being what it is, even many of those that made a less than good decision will admit it even to themselves. Still, the saying that a bad day on vacation is better than a good day at work comes to mind (thought it's not completely accurate). I strongly believe that one who decides to buy in without enough info to be reasonably certain should buy something along the lines of SSR even if it ends up being their worst possibly choice than say VGF. The best compromise for that issue is usually BLT.

I was going to make that point and forgot to, one I've made a number of times for buying SSR using for AKV. For AKV it's almost always cheaper in the long run to buy SSR and use for AKV standard view than buying AKV and using for value. The crossover is around 2/3 of the time for value but the reality is most won't use it that way and essentially none as a new buyer. Certainly for someone who adds an additional home resort specifically for value, that can be different but often it isn't even then. I haven't run the numbers on SSR used for a 1 BR vs VGF used for a studio but generalizing I'd say it's in the 50% more range and about 2/3 of what buying VGF would be for a 1 BR. Obviously a little more in favor of owning VGF points for standard and a little less for lake view.

Exactly this!! We had been lightly considering DVC (stopped by the kiosks at our trips in 2014, 2015, early 2016...) and started seriously thinking about whether it made sense for us in early 2016, when we rented points at BLT. I learned about the 4/4/16 cutoff without enough time to have closed by then anyway, so my "regret" is that we didn't but in 2014 or 2015 and get grandfathered points for less than we ultimately paid in 2017. HOWEVER, you are absolutely right that the loss is marginal and arguably we gained by being better informed. I will say that since we liked the theming of the Contemporary, we probably would have made a rushed decision to buy BLT resale, or (worse, most likely) we probably would have bought whatever they were selling direct - was that VGF? In hindsight, we would have been ok with either of those, but we certainly couldn't have known that at the time. And yes, the best overall compromise, in my mind, is still BLT as far as point costs, length of contract, MFs, location. So yes, it took us 2 more trips in 2016 to solidify our decision, but the "lost" money spent on renting points or finding that GF discount was well worth it in terms of due diligence and knowledge gained.

 

[Dean]

@.landry is running these numbers based on prices now and I think she'd agree w you.



Exactly this!! We had been lightly considering DVC (stopped by the kiosks at our trips in 2014, 2015, early 2016...) and started seriously thinking about whether it made sense for us in early 2016, when we rented points at BLT. I learned about the 4/4/16 cutoff without enough time to have closed by then anyway, so my "regret" is that we didn't but in 2014 or 2015 and get grandfathered points for less than we ultimately paid in 2017. HOWEVER, you are absolutely right that the loss is marginal and arguably we gained by being better informed. I will say that since we liked the theming of the Contemporary, we probably would have made a rushed decision to buy BLT resale, or (worse, most likely) we probably would have bought whatever they were selling direct - was that VGF? In hindsight, we would have been ok with either of those, but we certainly couldn't have known that at the time. And yes, the best overall compromise, in my mind, is still BLT as far as point costs, length of contract, MFs, location. So yes, it took us 2 more trips in 2016 to solidify our decision, but the "lost" money spent on renting points or finding that GF discount was well worth it in terms of due diligence and knowledge gained.

One thing people often do is rush to get the next trip on the points they're buying. While this could yield a relatively small savings IF (Big IF) one makes the right decision in doing so, my opinion is that the risk of making a bad decision far outweighs the benefit at least up to a point. The real cost of renting say 250-500 points for a couple of trips is in the range of $1000-2500 and the risk of a bad decisions can be anywhere from that to $10K or more. Certainly if prices go up or options evaporate (like add on 25 retail for perks) that is a risk but it's just as possible that prices will go down relative to inflation over an 18-24 month window. That's esp true right now when prices are high and the difference between retail and resale is less. The problem is they are more likely to chose the wrong home resort, usually the more expensive one, a poor UY or contract size and not uncommonly go retail when resale made more sense. IMO it is a much lower problem buying low like SSR than high esp BCV, VGF, Poly, VGF, VGC and Aulani (due to high dues and no 11 month priority) or retail in general. But every situation is different and one would have to look at the specifics of a given situation though most of the time when one thinks their situation is unique and these principles don't apply, they aren't ready to buy because they don't have a good enough feel of the options to make a truly informed decision.

 

[kboo]

One thing people often do is rush to get the next trip on the points they're buying. While this could yield a relatively small savings IF (Big IF) one makes the right decision in doing so, my opinion is that the risk of making a bad decision far outweighs the benefit at least up to a point. The real cost of renting say 250-500 points for a couple of trips is in the range of $1000-2500 and the risk of a bad decisions can be anywhere from that to $10K or more. Certainly if prices go up or options evaporate (like add on 25 retail for perks) that is a risk but it's just as possible that prices will go down relative to inflation over an 18-24 month window. That's esp true right now when prices are high and the difference between retail and resale is less. The problem is they are more likely to chose the wrong home resort, usually the more expensive one, a poor UY or contract size and not uncommonly go retail when resale made more sense. IMO it is a much lower problem buying low like SSR than high esp BCV, VGF, Poly, VGF, VGC and Aulani (due to high dues and no 11 month priority) or retail in general. But every situation is different and one would have to look at the specifics of a given situation though most of the time when one thinks their situation is unique and these principles don't apply, they aren't ready to buy because they don't have a good enough feel of the options to make a truly informed decision.

Exactly! We didn't feel pressured because our next trip (2017) was already booked on rented points at BCV and VGF, so we could easily buy for 2018 trips. Of course, the 2017 trips had been booked for us to try the other 2 DVCs we were considering, and then we ended up buying BLT before then, but ultimately we a) feel like we made a pretty good choice w BLT at $106pp, and b) although we liked BCV and VGF A LOT, we didn't feel like we liked them so much more than BLT or BWV that we had made a wrong decision and should have waited.

 

[Bing Showei]

I'm going to chime in here, as I have to admit that I would be a great case study for exactly @Dean 's points above. I just recently bought into DVC, doing nothing of what he suggested.

I didn't rent points first. I didn't spend several trips trying out DVC rooms. I didn't spend years studying up on the ins and outs on these boards.

And I'd be lying if I said there wasn't a nagging sense of buyers' remorse.

What I did do was buy enough points across two resale contracts to book VGF at the 11-month mark and stay there during the time that my family would presently go (end of summer, just before school start), in the room that my family would presently use (a 1-bedroom), at the resort that most closely matches our travel preferences.

Based on the work that @skier_pete has done to outline resort availability year round, I would be an ideal candidate for buying a boatload of SSR and using those points for my VGF stays and trying out other resorts. And thereinlies my nagging sense of buyers' remorse. By my calculations, had I bought SSR at the time I bought my VGF, I could've saved enough to probably buy annual passes for my entire family for the next ten years.

That's a tough pill to swallow.

There are two reasons I won't be blowing up my DVC contracts and resetting to SSR at this point.

The first reason is that I bought into VGF at $130/pt and the combination of SSR asking prices today along with SSR vs VGF RTU, the cost gap between the premature purchase vs. the slightly more informed (but could stand to learn/experience more) price is narrowing. If I rented points and spent another couple of trips, figuring out what would work best for me, I imagine that gap would narrow even further.

The second reason is the following conversation I had with my wife when I suggested we reset to SSR.

ME: I'm thinking of selling VGF and buying SSR.
W: Those words you just used mean nothing to me.
ME: We can save A LOT of money if I sell our Grand Floridian DVC and buy Saratoga Springs DVC instead.
W: But I don't want to stay there.
ME: RAT patterns at 7 months suggest that the...
[W blank stare]
... we'll never have to stay there.
W: Are you positive? I love the Grand Floridian.
ME: Yeah. The time of year we travel, no problem.
W: What about during that food sampling thing. When you bought, you said-
ME: Food and Wine.
W: What?
ME: Nothing. For a 1 BR, the food thing should be fine.
W: So you're positive we can stay at VGF whenever we want?
ME: Yes.
[W BS sensor triggered]
ME: Probably.
[Silence]
ME: Probably, yes?
[Silence]

I don't know how my travel patterns will change or what availability will be like down the line as more resorts come online, but I'm hedging on the side of being able to answer "Yes" should that question come up again.

Where all of this could blow up in my face and is if we end up hating VGF vs Grand Floridian hotel rooms, or find out we would much rather stay at AKV/BWV/BRV/etc. All of which is exactly the point that Dean makes:

In the absence of enough knowledge/experience with DVC, there is a lot of room for (expensive) remorse.

All that said, 15 years down the line, when my son is off to college, I'm not convinced I wouldn't be looking back and regretting I hadn't just bought VGF, had I gone another way and found out a studio at Christmas at VGF was not in the cards.

 

[Wakey]

I'm going to chime in here, as I have to admit that I would be a great case study for exactly @Dean 's points above. I just recently bought into DVC, doing nothing of what he suggested.

I didn't rent points first. I didn't spend several trips trying out DVC rooms. I didn't spend years studying up on the ins and outs on these boards.

And I'd be lying if I said there wasn't a nagging sense of buyers' remorse.

What I did do was buy enough points across two resale contracts to book VGF at the 11-month mark and stay there during the time that my family would presently go (end of summer, just before school start), in the room that my family would presently use (a 1-bedroom), at the resort that most closely matches our travel preferences.

Based on the work that @skier_pete has done to outline resort availability year round, I would be an ideal candidate for buying a boatload of SSR and using those points for my VGF stays and trying out other resorts. And thereinlies my nagging sense of buyers' remorse. By my calculations, had I bought SSR at the time I bought my VGF, I could've saved enough to probably buy annual passes for my entire family for the next ten years.

That's a tough pill to swallow.

There are two reasons I won't be blowing up my DVC contracts and resetting to SSR at this point.

The first reason is that I bought into VGF at $130/pt and the combination of SSR asking prices today along with SSR vs VGF RTU, the cost gap between the premature purchase vs. the slightly more informed (but could stand to learn/experience more) price is narrowing. If I rented points and spent another couple of trips, figuring out what would work best for me, I imagine that gap would narrow even further.



All that said, 15 years down the line, when my son is off to college, I'm not convinced I wouldn't be looking back and regretting I hadn't just bought VGF, had I gone another way and found out a studio at Christmas at VGF was not in the cards.

Given you bought it for 130 and increasing price of SSR resale, I wouldn't sell and re buy SSR now if I were you if you bought to stay GFV. Whilst sure you can use SSR points late summer, not quite so confident in October.
I did 6 months research and went on the SSR route. But my intention isn't to stay in GFV every year. I'm only interested in DVC to stop in a different resort often, I only go every other year anyway, and split stay it (I'm from UK, for my main vacation I visit USA every year but do like to travel around, so do 1 year on, 1 year off Disney; 25 States and counting now). So I'll do 1 or 2 different resorts each time, giving me a new experience each vacation, at least for the next 10 to 12 years. So SSR was the only choice for me, and we are 1-2 bed people anyway. I also like SSR and could see in later years (when kids are gone we would only need a studio then), myself and Mrs Wakey staying every year and not visiting the parks, and close proximity to Disney Springs and low points per night would be a big plus.
Even though you didn't do as much research as many on here, you still did more than 90% of buyers by knowing about resale and not buying on impulse at a DVC presentation.

 

[Dean]

I'm going to chime in here, as I have to admit that I would be a great case study for exactly @Dean 's points above. I just recently bought into DVC, doing nothing of what he suggested.

I didn't rent points first. I didn't spend several trips trying out DVC rooms. I didn't spend years studying up on the ins and outs on these boards.

And I'd be lying if I said there wasn't a nagging sense of buyers' remorse.

What I did do was buy enough points across two resale contracts to book VGF at the 11-month mark and stay there during the time that my family would presently go (end of summer, just before school start), in the room that my family would presently use (a 1-bedroom), at the resort that most closely matches our travel preferences.

Based on the work that @skier_pete has done to outline resort availability year round, I would be an ideal candidate for buying a boatload of SSR and using those points for my VGF stays and trying out other resorts. And thereinlies my nagging sense of buyers' remorse. By my calculations, had I bought SSR at the time I bought my VGF, I could've saved enough to probably buy annual passes for my entire family for the next ten years.

That's a tough pill to swallow.

There are two reasons I won't be blowing up my DVC contracts and resetting to SSR at this point.

The first reason is that I bought into VGF at $130/pt and the combination of SSR asking prices today along with SSR vs VGF RTU, the cost gap between the premature purchase vs. the slightly more informed (but could stand to learn/experience more) price is narrowing. If I rented points and spent another couple of trips, figuring out what would work best for me, I imagine that gap would narrow even further.

The second reason is the following conversation I had with my wife when I suggested we reset to SSR.

ME: I'm thinking of selling VGF and buying SSR.
W: Those words you just used mean nothing to me.
ME: We can save A LOT of money if I sell our Grand Floridian DVC and buy Saratoga Springs DVC instead.
W: But I don't want to stay there.
ME: RAT patterns at 7 months suggest that the...
[W blank stare]
... we'll never have to stay there.
W: Are you positive? I love the Grand Floridian.
ME: Yeah. The time of year we travel, no problem.
W: What about during that food sampling thing. When you bought, you said-
ME: Food and Wine.
W: What?
ME: Nothing. For a 1 BR, the food thing should be fine.
W: So you're positive we can stay at VGF whenever we want?
ME: Yes.
[W BS sensor triggered]
ME: Probably.
[Silence]
ME: Probably, yes?
[Silence]

I don't know how my travel patterns will change or what availability will be like down the line as more resorts come online, but I'm hedging on the side of being able to answer "Yes" should that question come up again.

Where all of this could blow up in my face and is if we end up hating VGF vs Grand Floridian hotel rooms, or find out we would much rather stay at AKV/BWV/BRV/etc. All of which is exactly the point that Dean makes:

In the absence of enough knowledge/experience with DVC, there is a lot of room for (expensive) remorse.

All that said, 15 years down the line, when my son is off to college, I'm not convinced I wouldn't be looking back and regretting I hadn't just bought VGF, had I gone another way and found out a studio at Christmas at VGF was not in the cards.

DVC will likely work out fine for you. You could have saved a ton of money doing the other route when you did (both short term and long term with dues) but would it have been worth it depends on variables we don't know and long term that non of us know. Paraphrasing your post you made an emotional decision without what I would consider sufficient information. But as I've said many times, the largest question by far in this area is whether one should buy DVC at all. If it's reasonable for you to buy DVC period, I don't think you're in a bad position.

 

[skier_pete]

In the absence of enough knowledge/experience with DVC, there is a lot of room for (expensive) remorse.

All that said, 15 years down the line, when my son is off to college, I'm not convinced I wouldn't be looking back and regretting I hadn't just bought VGF, had I gone another way and found out a studio at Christmas at VGF was not in the cards.

Well - you know we've had some conversations outside of here - but I would say while you may be feeling some buyer's remorse, I still think if you are predominantly using your points to stay at the Grand Floridian, even at a time when 1-bedrooms are readily available, and that's really where you want to stay - there's not a lot of point to selling your contract in exchange for SSR. There is a lot to be said for the safety of knowing you own at your preferred location, and not having to worry every time about the 7-month booking. Also, since you bought direct you have the perks. Selling now and buying SSR would also lose you that.

Now-if you ever decided to add on....

 

[Pluto777]

Well - you know we've had some conversations outside of here - but I would say while you may be feeling some buyer's remorse, I still think if you are predominantly using your points to stay at the Grand Floridian, even at a time when 1-bedrooms are readily available, and that's really where you want to stay - there's not a lot of point to selling your contract in exchange for SSR. There is a lot to be said for the safety of knowing you own at your preferred location, and not having to worry every time about the 7-month booking. Also, since you bought direct you have the perks. Selling now and buying SSR would also lose you that.

Now-if you ever decided to add on....

Hey folks, GREAT thread, a LOT of knowledgeable people here for sure. My only question concern is what will the 7 month pattern look like in the future? If one knew that, I think the whole buy at a lower cost (lower price per point as well as lower Maintenance Fee) would be an EASY decision. Anyone dare hazard a guess as to what types of rooms and which resorts are likely to have availability 3 years, 5 years, 10 years even 20 years into the future? Pete you did extensive, thoughtful work researching booking patterns already in a prior post (definitely worth checking out folks!) based on PAST history - who will pick up the task of trying the almost-impossible, super guess work of predicting the most likely 7 month booking patterns into the more distant (5-10 year) future? Obviously this could be influenced by future parks attractions opening, construction, new resorts etc etc. Maybe this should be it's own thread! Good luck to anyone who tries.

 

[skier_pete]

Hey folks, GREAT thread, a LOT of knowledgeable people here for sure. My only question concern is what will the 7 month pattern look like in the future? If one knew that, I think the whole buy at a lower cost (lower price per point as well as lower Maintenance Fee) would be an EASY decision. Anyone dare hazard a guess as to what types of rooms and which resorts are likely to have availability 3 years, 5 years, 10 years even 20 years into the future? Pete you did extensive, thoughtful work researching booking patterns already in a prior post (definitely worth checking out folks!) based on PAST history - who will pick up the task of trying the almost-impossible, super guess work of predicting the most likely 7 month booking patterns into the more distant (5-10 year) future? Obviously this could be influenced by future parks attractions opening, construction, new resorts etc etc. Maybe this should be it's own thread! Good luck to anyone who tries.

So - I am re-doing my charts (give it another 6 months) and I can tell you studios are becoming harder to come by at seven months in the last 3 years, but it seems 1-bedrooms if anything are becoming easier. I suspect (and just my theory) that the pricing of DVC so high has driven more people to buy smaller contracts, making studios even more in demand. But you are correct, it is hard to predict how things will change over the years. And bad turn in the economy for example could see resale prices tumble, in which case direct buying may make a lot less sense. (Resale prices have spiked significantly in the last year.)

 

[MommaBerd]

So - I am re-doing my charts (give it another 6 months) and I can tell you studios are becoming harder to come by at seven months in the last 3 years, but it seems 1-bedrooms if anything are becoming easier. I suspect (and just my theory) that the pricing of DVC so high has driven more people to buy smaller contracts, making studios even more in demand. But you are correct, it is hard to predict how things will change over the years. And bad turn in the economy for example could see resale prices tumble, in which case direct buying may make a lot less sense. (Resale prices have spiked significantly in the last year.)

Thanks for volunteering your time and energy to work on an update, Pete!!!

 

[Pluto777]

Thanks for volunteering your time and energy to work on an update, Pete!!!

Amen! Three cheers for Pete lads (and ladies)!

 

[zavandor]

So - I am re-doing my charts (give it another 6 months) and I can tell you studios are becoming harder to come by at seven months in the last 3 years, but it seems 1-bedrooms if anything are becoming easier. I suspect (and just my theory) that the pricing of DVC so high has driven more people to buy smaller contracts, making studios even more in demand. But you are correct, it is hard to predict how things will change over the years. And bad turn in the economy for example could see resale prices tumble, in which case direct buying may make a lot less sense. (Resale prices have spiked significantly in the last year.)

Your charts are very valueable thanks for taking the time to do it!
One question about metodology: do you check 7 months availability for studios at 7months -1 day or +1 day?
I have always suspected that competition at 8:00am would increase over time, but are you noticing also less availability for right when the 7 months window open?

 

[.landry]

My change of heart about buying SSR over VGF is because the 1 brs seem so much more available across the resorts at 7 mo. So not only does it help us to 'sleep around" without having to have a few contracts, its not taking studio inventory from home resort folks and its a better dollar for dollar choice (for us) than buying enough VGF points to stay in 1brs there (YIKES!!!!!!). AND we get to stay in 1brs instead of studios.

 

[skier_pete]

Thanks for volunteering your time and energy to work on an update, Pete!!!

Want to point out that @Bing Showei is actually helping me with the re-do. It's a 2-person project now and we've expanded it to all the 1-bedrooms.

 

[kboo]

...

The second reason is the following conversation I had with my wife when I suggested we reset to SSR.

ME: I'm thinking of selling VGF and buying SSR.
W: Those words you just used mean nothing to me.
ME: We can save A LOT of money if I sell our Grand Floridian DVC and buy Saratoga Springs DVC instead.
W: But I don't want to stay there.
ME: RAT patterns at 7 months suggest that the...
[W blank stare]
... we'll never have to stay there.
W: Are you positive? I love the Grand Floridian.
ME: Yeah. The time of year we travel, no problem.
W: What about during that food sampling thing. When you bought, you said-
ME: Food and Wine.
W: What?
ME: Nothing. For a 1 BR, the food thing should be fine.
W: So you're positive we can stay at VGF whenever we want?
ME: Yes.
[W BS sensor triggered]
ME: Probably.
[Silence]
ME: Probably, yes?
[Silence]

I don't know how my travel patterns will change or what availability will be like down the line as more resorts come online, but I'm hedging on the side of being able to answer "Yes" should that question come up again.
....

Ok, your conversation is pretty every conversation I have with DH about DVC... HAHAHAHAHA.

Ultimately, I think we didn't buy SSR then, and aren't seriously considering SSR now, for the same hedging reason (whether availability patterns may change in the next 10-15 years, when our travel to WDW is definitely at least annually. Our travel patterns may change and we may decide we want to go over Thanksgiving and Christmas more (we've only ever been between late Feb - August) and don't want to be locked in to SSR over the holidays. Given the high point costs over the holidays as well, we may decide that for those trips, we want to save our points and stay in studios. (This would also be a hedge against point reallocations.)

And @skier_pete's charts absolutely did factor into our decision!

 

[Bing Showei]

Ok, your conversation is pretty every conversation I have with DH about DVC... HAHAHAHAHA.

Ultimately, I think we didn't buy SSR then, and aren't seriously considering SSR now, for the same hedging reason (whether availability patterns may change in the next 10-15 years, when our travel to WDW is definitely at least annually. Our travel patterns may change and we may decide we want to go over Thanksgiving and Christmas more (we've only ever been between late Feb - August) and don't want to be locked in to SSR over the holidays. Given the high point costs over the holidays as well, we may decide that for those trips, we want to save our points and stay in studios. (This would also be a hedge against point reallocations.)

It can feel like a pricey hedge when looking at VGF. I still spend way too much time calculating how much I could save if I swapped my VGF contracts out. I've gone as far as making offers on SSR contracts but no-one is moving to where I would want the price to be. At some point, I'll figure out how to cut my losses and move on. I think @crisi captured it perfectly as "paralysis by analysis." Except I'm doing it with 20/20 hindsight, which is FAR more torturous. I'll give myself another months of moping.

And @skier_pete's charts absolutely did factor into our decision!

It really can't be said enough how incredibly helpful the work @skier_pete has done. I see those colored charts come up again and again whenever people ask about getting into X,Y,Z at 7 months. Not only on this board, but other DVC Owner boards as well.