Thanks. I wouldn't be financing, if we actually did anything, I'd probably be leveraging some stock options to pull it off. Here are the kind of factors I'm still collating and working with as part of this:
- Depreciating Asset. Since we're in our mid 40's, I'd figure at best, we'd get maybe 20 years out of it. And since we know nothing about how things would be in 20 years, I'm factoring that 1/20th of the buy-in as a 'cost per year' as an 'overall cost of ownership'. Working with the Riveria prices listed on the DVC site, that basically works out to $1000 per year. Your numbers would be $412.50 /year if we bought on the resale market.
Nobody can predict the future. But in all likelihood, and depending on which resort you choose, you should be likely to recoup a portion of your money in 20 years. However, I completely understand the conservative approach of assuming zero value in 20 years. Just keep in mind, in 20 years, you may still have maintenance fees depending on the resort you choose.
- The loss of the free dining plan we typically take advantage of. We all know the dining plan when bought outright isn't as good a deal as paying out of pocket in most cases, but our usual travel in off season times has usually thrown QS in for free that we upgrade to the regular DP for around $500 for the trip. Need to figure out how food weighs in in that scenario. Most likely would switch to paying OOP instead of dining plans and then, on top of that, whether or not the buying direct savings opportunity factors in vs the buying resale therefore no discount on food factors in.
That is definitely something to factor in. Just make sure your comparing the rack rates to the DVC cost because free dining is usually only available when paying rack rates. Also factor in tax. You do not pay tax on DVC. Taking a quick look at POFQ rack rates for 2020, it ranges from $262 - $336 after taxes for a standard room. Also make sure your looking at the DVC
point charts. The example I gave you above was at Saratoga Springs for the 4th out of 7 highest point season.
- Similarly, how the direct discount vs the resale market or just not buying into DVC would factor on souvenirs.
- As part of the 'opportunity' cost, I'm not one to do investing, but a Scotia Momentum savings account pays up to 2% interest (taxable), which I've factored into one of my what if calculations. Basically, what if I stick the upfront cost in the savings account, add the monthly dues every month, get paid interest on it, and then pay taxes on the interest, what kind of 'vacation budget' does that provide if I withdraw back to the principal every month? This scenario also precludes the notion of the depreciating asset, as the principal would still be worth the principal at the end of it all.
I've done this exact calculation before based on my families personal travelling habits. When comparing it to staying at Disney Deluxe resorts, DVC blew it out of the water. It usually still ended up quite a bit better than moderates pricing. When comparing to the price of staying at value resorts with discounts, the value resort pricing would generally win.
So if your absolute goal is to go with the cheapest option, DVC will not be it. The difference wasn't that large though.
- Inflation I'm basically ignoring for now and working under the assumption that it'll be universal and the dues would go up by around the same amount per year as the rack rates. I'm probably very wrong in that assumption, but I'm already making all these calculation complex enough without adding that factor into the mix.
- I've also looked at how the Gold AP ability of DVC would stack up against park tickets, even at only one trip per AP. Basically, I figure one year full price, second year renewal price, third year let it lax. Staggered right, 2 APs like that should just cover 3 trips at 18 month intervals, and how does that compare to park ticket prices.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding something. For simplicity, lets say Trip 1 = Jan 2021, Trip 2= July 2022, Trip 3 = Jan 2024
AP 1 = 2021
AP 2 = 2022
Your third trip would require a new AP. At 18 months, I think you'd be better off buying park tickets. To get more than 1 trip on an AP, you would have to travel less than 12 months apart (even if it's 51 weeks apart).
And part of that last one then leads me into some of the non-quantifibles:
- Normally we don't buy arrival/departure days, a Gold AP would let us leverage those days too. Note: I don't consider the extra days as part of the cost analysis as it's not something we would normally buy. This is being factored as a non-cost 'perk'.
- Over the 5 trips to WDW (the '16 trip was DL) we've done POFQ 3 times (including the upcoming one), Pop once and YC once, but only because it was on an 'under construction' deal that put in the same price range as a moderate. I haven't quite figured out how to quantify a DVC resort against our usual Moderate resort. Wife's always commented on wanting to stay at Wilderness Lodge, but cost wise, when we compare to POFQ, we've never been able to justify the upcharge. And it's my understanding that DVC, while located at Deluxe properties, aren't considered Deluxe offerings, so it becomes really hard to put a pin in that one.
I could never justify paying the cash prices for the deluxe resorts. FWIW, I'm a new DVC member. Haven't even stayed at a DVC resort. But I've done a ton of research, and plenty of quantitative/non quantitative analysis. From what I understand, the DVC studios are slightly bigger than the deluxe hotel equivalents. They come with a kitchenette as well. They take a bit longer to get refurbished, so over time they may get a bit more worn down before being fixed up. With DVC, you also have the options of the larger villas. For me personally, I think the cost to upgrade is too outrageous, but plenty of people love the extra space. Those rooms come with full kitchens, and in house laundry. The one thing you don't get with DVC though is daily room cleaning. I believe they do 1 full clean after a week, and one quick tidy mid week.
As for the resorts, the majority of DVC resorts are built on the properties of the deluxe hotels. You get to share all of the amenities, plus get access to a few amenities that hotel guests don't get access too (laundry facilities, DVC specific pools, Top of the World Lounge at BLT, etc...). The biggest thing for us was the location. We have an upcoming trip this September that hopefully we get to go on. We have Saratoga points, but booked a split stay. 4 days at Boardwalk where we can walk to Epcot and Hollywood Studios. Then we follow it up with 4 days at Bay Lake Tower where we can walk to Magic Kingdom. We'll probably go to Animal Kingdom on our transfer day.
- And one of the last things to consider, especially with the current market, is that we don't really have any desire for Riveria, but do have some desire for the direct owner benefits. Unfortunately, there's like 0 information out there about the ability to buy direct at any of the older resorts. I hear of people doing it, but almost all of those are people adding on to existing DVC contracts. Obviously with the Wife's penchant for WL, Boulder Ridge or Cooper Canyon would have been the preferred. Personally, I really like the concept of the Epcot area resorts. I really enjoyed our stay at the YC, and ease of getting to Epcot/DHS. I'm sure that's changed now with the whole Skyliner thing, which we haven't experienced yet, but it's not enough of a draw to pull me to the Riveria. So, a lot to weigh in there.
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/financial/pricing-a-promotions
This is the direct pricing for all of the resorts. There are minimum amounts you have to buy to get a direct contract, and you may have to get on a waiting list for some of them. Most of the direct prices are really high, but if your buying a small contract, the difference in price may be worth the convenience, and the ability to get the direct benefits. Just keep in mind, to get the "blue card" you need a minimum of 100 direct points.
So, as you can see, I'm still pretty early in the whole process, still with a lot to work through. And that's just to get to the point of being willing to speak to one of those DVC sales people on the next trip, not even getting to the actual point of buying.
Come over to the DVC part of the boards. Lots of great information and people with a wealth of knowledge. You seem like a researcher, so you may really want to get into the grainy detail before purchasing. Those folks know a lot and can answer your questions.
