Buying Direct Real Advantage

Correct,,,but with resale restrictions,,,you wont be able to access them when the 42's change
Therefore,,,more and more resorts when bought resale will have limited numbers.
The 14 that people talk about will be down to 8 or less
Aulani does not change with 2042. Nor does VGC.
 
We purchased resale initially. We love the 3 resorts we bought at and won’t feel “stuck” if we don’t ever get to trade out. The cost savings were incredible so we bought 425 points in a matter of months. We did end up buying a small (50 point) contract direct at Riviera to round us out. I love the Riviera but I didn’t want the restrictions to be an issue which is why we bought direct and why it was small. It‘s enough to stay every other year.

We can’t make the blue card work for us. We are passholders (out of state) but being +/- 50, there aren’t enough years left for the 2 of us to reach the break even point for the Sorcerer Pass. We still get our AP discount on merch and dining and don’t really care about the other extras.

So for us there was definitely a value buying direct but it was specific to our situation. The bulk of our points being resale was the winner for us.
 
I agree with OP point. I would love to get some more RIV points cheaper on resale, but my kids are only 18 and 15. They haven't stopped loving Disney, so I want to have flexible direct points to use for many more years.
 
Perspective is still different for everyone whether it's age, travel habits etc. I still cannot get on board the argument that "future" resorts should play much of a deciding factor in direct vs resale.
1 - nobody has any idea at all if Disney will continue to build at the rate they have nor if the resorts will be more appealing than what already is built.
2 - buy where you want to stay is more of a factor than ever before - especially if studios are your accommodations of choice.
3 - this ebbs and flows but what will Disney even look like when the 1st resort expiration comes around in 2042?

Personally for me, when I first purchased there were 8 resorts total. 6 onsite at WDW, zero at DL and 2 offsite. I considered that PLENTY and still do. After 2042 there's another 12 years of access with non-grandfathered resale to 7 onsite resorts (1 more than when I initially purchased), 1 DL resort (+1) and 1 offsite (Hawaii). Overall I'd have until 2054 with 1 more resort than initially and until 2057 with the same number of 8 resorts.

By that time I likely won't be going to WDW or DL anymore unless I were pushing for my own 100 year anniversary.

Now if the place you do want to stay most of the time is the newest resort by all means buy direct. Or if the direct price is virtually identical to resale where you'd want to stay. But I could never say buy at a new resort when you want to stay elsewhere and then justify it with some unknown future that is decided by a corporation.
 
We own direct and loved the convenience of it all. We like the tower styles, so Poly 2.0 is appealing to us, as is the Poly vibe and MK location but with better room options (we don't do studios.) We also had kids late in life, so our hope is to leave the contracts to the kids for their enjoyment on our 2020s dimes. That leaves us direct focused.

Having said that, if Poly 2.0 is a bust, I keep circling back to CC resale as home #2. I would NOT pay the crazy inflated direct CC price Disney is charging. I'm also mildly interested in a small AK resale for club level stays with my husband as empty nesters, but that's down the road and not a priority at all.

I do think no ROFR and expanded new portfolio with resale restrictions will hurt resale eventually, but for the fans of resale, they'll just be thrilled to score even better deals than we saw around January of this year. It could also hurt direct sales though, because savvy buyers DO want an exit strategy, and DVC was the one timeshare that people aren't suing to get out of. If they devalue it TOO much, I do think that hurts direct sales if you're paying $200+per point and can't expect to break even after a decade.

We do not expect to profit if we ever sold, but I would be bummed if we didn't break even and took a hosing in a decade or so. We really love the DVC product and the ability to try all the other resorts, so that will probably keep us direct buyers in reality, but if we ever come into unexpected cash, CC is on my radar, for sure.
 
One thing I wouldn't do is to buy resale into the new resorts with the restrictions. Too much of a potential headache it you have to make any late changes where you could potentially lose points if you cannot rebook.

If resale prices at restricted resorts will be 50%+ lower than direct (I think it’s very possible once the initial enthusiasm about a new resort subsides) i would much rather buy 150 points resale at RIV and 150 points resale at Poly2 than just 150 points direct at one of them for the same price (or more).

I can book both at 11 months, rent what I don’t use, and if I eventually sell within 7-10 years I probably won’t lose too much.

I can’t knowingly stomach a 50%+ loss (even if it’s just on paper) just because DVC is intentionally devaluing their product upon resale…

I may be totally off base, but at current prices I’m not a direct or resale buyer for restricted resorts.

Regarding points at restricted resorts potentially going unused, isn’t dumping them in Interval always an option in case of a last resort?
 
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Direct would never appeal to us but that is because both DH and I our 60+ years old. Also, being Canadian, we would have to add approximately 35% to the direct price due to the exchange rate and that's what we would be paying. No way would that ever make sense. We've got our 205 pts at AKV and we go every other year for 2 weeks in a 1 bedroom. We do split stays and are always able to do the 2nd half of our stay at other resorts. But, if we could only stay at AKV, I would be fine with that. That's why it is so important to buy where you want to stay. So for our particular situation Moonlight Magic, member lounges, and APs just don't factor into any circumstance where we would consider it.
 
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One real advantage of direct may be surplus availability when new resorts open. I noticed with VGF and RIV that 7 month availability started out strong. Will we see this with Poly2 and FW Cabins too?
 
I mean yea, that's the point. The goal is to make them two different products. If you plan to still be going to Disney that far in the future, maybe that matters to you.

The problem is DVC held value and was such a good product, possibly because of what Disney stripped. It's their decision to change the product, but we don't know the long term consequences for it.

You can already see DVC may be saturated. Even tiny VGF2 isn't sold, and DVC is sitting on millions of Aulani and RIV points. Poly2 and TFW going online soon will only make this more dramatic. That's not exactly a formula to build more restricted resorts. Sure, they've got land, but do they have the demand?

It may be this structure creates even more incentive to cheap resale, which just isn't as useful as it used to be, because it's locked down. Even I would be a RIV resale buyer if pricing were right. It's still a Disney hotel.
DVC is getting saturated. the direct value is the ability to use at other resorts, however, if you plan to use only one or two, then resale is still the best bet. part of what helped a robust direct market was the robust resale market, as resale restrictions hit there, we may see a shift in the direct vs resale regarding using at other resorts. I think a steep resort change fee may be in the future for resale.
 
I think a steep resort change fee may be in the future for resale.
That's not possible in the O14 contracts. There can be a resort tranfer fee for not-home points, but it has to be balanced. Example: VGF can charge a 10% transfer in fee, but it has to be to everyone, not just yucky SSR or gross resale.

I guess we will see what Poly2 says.

Heck, I hope Star Wars converts and charges a massive change in fee. Even I would buy for that.
 
That's not possible in the O14 contracts. There can be a resort tranfer fee for not-home points, but it has to be balanced. Example: VGF can charge a 10% transfer in fee, but it has to be to everyone, not just yucky SSR or gross resale.

I guess we will see what Poly2 says.

Heck, I hope Star Wars converts and charges a massive change in fee. Even I would buy for that.

The way around it is to have a fee for all, but DVD pays it for those eligible for membership extras….
 
The way around it is to have a fee for all, but DVD pays it for those eligible for membership extras….
It's written as a surcharge in points, not money, so I'm not even sure they could do that.
 
It's written as a surcharge in points, not money, so I'm not even sure they could do that.

No, they can charge a monetary fee for exchanges They can also make different non resort charts as well, but both are allowed.

ETA: I don’t see them doing it though, because I can’t see DVD coughing up that much money!
 
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It is very important to us because our adult kids want to be able to visit long after might not.

I think that as more are added that are restricted, the harder the choice it will be for those choosing to resale vs being locked out.

My thought is that while those resorts are not restricted, the notion of SAP may change and you see more resale buyers using those points as though they were.

If this plan continues, in 2043, the popular WDW resorts left will be BLT, PVB, CCV and VGF. How many of those resale owners will be trading out to places like SSR, AKW, and OKW? Will it be the same so Those owning elsewhere can get it to them?
As more resorts become restricted the historical value that buyer’s experienced goes out the window.

Once you sell those points are good at one resort only and that will have an impact on the value.
Also devaluing the contracts as the resale value is less, which imo is what sets Disney apart from a "time share", the resale value is one of the main perks.
 
One real advantage of direct may be surplus availability when new resorts open. I noticed with VGF and RIV that 7 month availability started out strong. Will we see this with Poly2 and FW Cabins too?
It has often been the case that the best availability to non-resort owners is the initial year, maybe two. Not reason enough to pay more for direct if you'd otherwise save thousands resale. Take some of that savings and book cash or rent a reservation at the new resort in the 7 month window when it might be cheaper.
 
DVC is moving to having restrictions on all points. The current resale restrictions and the direct restriction of not being able to use at other resorts when sold.
 















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