I really think people are reading waaaaay too much into this one early sale as an indicator of future resale prices. The current promotions with Riviera are a nice incentive to buy direct, plus you get a much fuller product when buying direct. And, it’s not even open yet... Of course resale is selling super cheap *right now*. I suspect it will be a desirable, hard to book resort once it’s sold out, making used contracts more appealing then for those that want an Epcot area resort with a longer expiration date.
This is the Riviera doomsday scenario.
Resale owners will be only able to stay at Riviera, this means there is no plan B, not even SSR is an option, they HAVE to book their home resort or they risk losing their points. This means they'll all book at 11 months, especially for high request periods. This may lead to direct owners too to rush and book as soon as possible as availability will disappear soon after the 11 months window opens.
So, since everyone rush to book the high demand periods, people will start to walk reservations, creating problems also outside the high demand periods. And walking means that people will find single nights availability here and there, causing more split stays, i.e. higher mouskeeping costs and even higher MF.
To fix the problem DVC might decide to modify the home resort advantage and restrict resale to booking only 10 months out instead of 11 (this is already an option in the Riviera POS), causing the resale value to crumble to pennies, as a resale owner will never have a chance to book a high demand period.
Will it happen? If I knew I would rather apply my divination powers to winning the lottery. If I have to guess, probably not to this level and at least not for many years. It seems resale averages on 1% per year after a few year the resort is sold out. It may take many years for a critical mass of resale owners to develop in order to cause the doomsday scenario and who knows what might happen in the meantime. And the fact that resale might be a bit lower than average, may convince owners to keep their contract rather than sell.
However there is a risk and every one should give it a thought.