Buy VGF direct or wait for Poly 2

[Mikey15]

Agree on Poly2. Without knowing what Poly2's room distribution is, I do sincerely hope they have enough Studios or are still considering including Poly1 into the association to supply that demand. I also hope they don't lean too far into Theme Park View--the points demand is proving to be unpopular at VGF so far.

I honestly don't know if they will be able to justify a TPV category at Polynesian tower just based on the tower's orientation and line of sight. Lake (or Lagoon) View? No problem. Close to half the rooms will be facing the right way for that. But the orientation of the building and shoreline is Northeast towards Contemporary, not quite towards MK. From the WL boat, you get a direct view of the tower when you're just past the Contemporary, but then it disappears behind the islands in the lagoon as you approach MK.

I'm sure the Grand Villas will see over the islands and get a good enough TPV, but those will already be their own booking category. Based on the concept art maybe there's some floors they could designate TPV, but I'd think it would be a small category,

Then again, I don't know how high this photo is taken from, but Space Mountain is visible over at least the one island. This would be a similar orientation to the lake-facing portion of the tower,

 

[shreddedshoe]

I feel like it's almost too good to be true with these prices right now. I don't want to risk waiting and paying thousands more. As eager as I am to see how the new Poly tower turns out, and had plans to buy there, saving $$$ is more important to us. And we can at least use the points there once Poly tower does open, assuming there's 7 mo availability. That's how I'm rationalizing it in my head at least!

Same. I had no intentions of buying direct right now and really wanted to wait for Poly2, but I couldn’t pass up these current incentives (I bought 150 pts at VGF). I love the Poly, and that would be my buy where you want to stay resort, but the cost of buying direct makes me cringe…the current incentives make me cringe way less. My thought process was, if I wait, while I would have more money set aside to buy in say next year, I will most likely pay more; Poly2 may be restricted, which I’m not sure I am totally comfortable with, although my mindset is changing on that and I may dislike the tower, although I didn’t think I’d like staying at Bay Lake or want to buy direct either until I did. The bottom line is, for me, there were too many questions and unknowns around waiting for Poly2 and I know what I am getting with buying VGF right now. And if I love Poly2, then there’s nothing saying I can’t buy there as well.

 

[ARobyn]

Same. I had no intentions of buying direct right now and really wanted to wait for Poly2, but I couldn’t pass up these current incentives (I bought 150 pts at VGF). I love the Poly, and that would be my buy where you want to stay resort, but the cost of buying direct makes me cringe…the current incentives make me cringe way less. My thought process was, if I wait, while I would have more money set aside to buy in say next year, I will most likely pay more; Poly2 may be restricted, which I’m not sure I am totally comfortable with, although my mindset is changing on that and I may dislike the tower, although I didn’t think I’d like staying at Bay Lake or want to buy direct either until I did. The bottom line is, for me, there were too many questions and unknowns around waiting for Poly2 and I know what I am getting with buying VGF right now. And if I love Poly2, then there’s nothing saying I can’t buy there as well.

I 1000% agree with everything you said. As much as I was planning to wait for Poly2 next year, I also NEVER thought I'd want to buy direct due to the prices but with these incentives, it's too good to pass up. Enjoy your new points!

 

[Paul Stupin]

While this is the expectation/intuition of many, data does not support this.

I've only done one deep dive into booking velocities at VGF in the Home Resort window (which covered 11/17/23 - 3/9/24), but I have done a bunch of lower-effort spotchecks and even today a cursory glance of inventory shows it's quite a balanced resort in the 7-11m window with current sales (no promises once it sells out again...can't trust those new neighbors).

It's more balanced than Copper Creek and significantly more balanced than Riviera in terms of when different room/view categories completely book up. I haven't done all resorts and I don't have pre-VGF2 data for VGF, but there's a decent chance VGF is currently the most balanced resort following the addition of VGF2.

Resort Studios are surprisingly popular in terms of booking velocity during the 7-11m window, noticeably more popular than Deluxe Studios (which shocked me). Taking into account inventory size, Deluxe Studios do 'sell out' faster than Resort Studios, but not that much. Standard View RS are the most popular rooms at VGF in terms of owner booking velocity, but RS overall are somewhat held back by the mega-points Theme Park View (which are few in number).

(n.b., the bulk of the analysis above/below was done looking at dates that did not 'sell out' yet, as once a category sells out the other categories have their booking velocities influenced by the sold out category...the proverbial booking balloon is squeezed to other categories)

Looking at just room categories (not specific views), Deluxe Studios are the fastest to 'sell out' at VGF and do so about 1.4x faster than the least popular category, 1BR, which is a pretty narrow gap between min/max. Even getting granular down to specific views, SV Deluxe Studios 'sell out' just 2.8x as fast as TPV Resort Studios. These ranges are narrow for min/max. EDIT: I'd also like to add it's really uncommon for a studio to be the least popular room+view category at a resort.

Compared to Copper Creek, the difference in 'sell out' rates between Studios and the 2nd most popular CCV category (ded 2BR) is only slightly narrower (1.3x) than the difference between VGF's min/max (1.4x). CCV Studios sell out 1.5x as fast as 1BR, 1.7x as fast as GV, and 7x as fast as Cabins. If it weren't for the Cabins, CCV would be fairly balanced! Walk-in shower is slightly more popular than tub, fwiw.

Compared to Riviera, VGF is night/day better. Riviera bookings have a significant bias toward Standard View in all room categories. In terms of 'sell out' rates, the smallest difference between any SV/PV split within a single room category at Riviera is 2.1x for Deluxe Studios, larger than the difference between VGF SV Deluxe Studio (the most popular) and VGF LV 1BR (the least popular non-RS), at 2x. Looking at Deluxe Studios vs. Tower vs. 1BR vs. 2BR vs. GV as categories, Riviera is also pretty unbalanced. TS 'sell out' 1.6x as fast as DS, DS 'sell out' 2x as fast as GV/dedicated 2BR and 2.5x as fast as 1BR. In terms of min/max factoring in views, Riviera has a 9.2x 'sell out' rate at TS compared to PV 1BR, and even an 8.7x 'sell out' rate at SV Deluxe Studio vs. PV 1BR.

This is all super interesting and quite informative. Thanks for the analysis!

 

[I am Moana of Motunui]

I feel like it's almost too good to be true with these prices right now. I don't want to risk waiting and paying thousands more. As eager as I am to see how the new Poly tower turns out, and had plans to buy there, saving $$$ is more important to us. And we can at least use the points there once Poly tower does open, assuming there's 7 mo availability. That's how I'm rationalizing it in my head at least!

Great point about using the points at the Poly at the 7 month mark.

 

[paults]

i'm all for VGF over Poly. JMO

 

[Pluto1976]

I posted this in another thread and it seems like it's applicable here as well as VGF2 and Poly2 purchasing are discussed. While being huge Poly fans, I have a feeling the new Poly tower area is not going to have the tropical laid back vibe the rest of the Poly has. This vibe is one of the things which make Poly1 so enjoyable (i.e. think the Oasis pool area). I just expect more noise and foot traffic.

That said, as many others have noted the GFV pricing is about as good as I think will be seen, GFV is probably our third favorite resort, it's in the MK area with a walking path to the MK, the DVC portion of the resort seems pretty quiet on our visits there, the theming is nice (though I will not forgive them for kicking out the GF orchestra and Mizner's conversion) did I mention the price per point, and has a great QS.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

POOLS: Once the Poly tower is up and running, which resort (between Polynesians and Grand Floridian) will have the best overall pool capacity for its guests?

 

[Paul Stupin]

The footprint of the new Poly Tower looks so small in comparison to its neighbors, both of which have such expansive grounds. That diminishes it a bit for me.

 

[Sandisw]

POOLS: Once the Poly tower is up and running, which resort (between Polynesians and Grand Floridian) will have the best overall pool capacity for its guests?

They are adding a pool for the tower so that will help but from my understanding, the Lava Pool is already overcrowded and since the new pool won’t be a feature pool with a slide, it’s going to be even busier.

At least with what happened at VGF, with BPK. It wasn’t new capacity…just a shift in balance between DVC and cash rooms.

 

[crvetter]

POOLS: Once the Poly tower is up and running, which resort (between Polynesians and Grand Floridian) will have the best overall pool capacity for its guests?

Poly currently has the worst pool size per number of guests. Grand Floridian has the best at all of WDW, excluding BC/YC since those are not comparable. See my post a few years ago highlighting how bad Poly is and Riviera middle of the road.

While Grand Floridian has the biggest pools per guests it is quite bland and concrete for my taste over WL, Riviera, AK, etcs that have some green spaces and views.

Something I had been interested in is what area of pools there are per hypothetical max occupancy of the individual DVC resorts (counting the guests of the Hotel Side if one exists). There had been some statements that Riviera was smaller in the pool areas than other resorts.

View attachment 464845

My hotel room numbers might be off as it was difficult to find and lock down that number. The Approx. Hotel Guests is based on 4 people per each room (so the deluxe and suites are under counted, though 4 per room seemed reasonable). Also for the DVC guest count I used the stated max occupancy for each room to find that. As you can see Riviera is pretty much in line with everywhere else and the two outliers are PVB with significantly undersized pools (though that has been known) and VGF with significantly larger pools (though that also has been known). But all in all Riviera seems pretty in line with the pools so I suspect there isn't much to worry about in regard to the physical size of the water area (however, the deck space is a different question).

Just thought Riviera owners might be interested in where their resort falls. If there are any additional comments or I made an error let me know and I can correct the above chart.

Edit: I left out BCV just because YC/BC is such a different animal with SAB in that it really is in its own league and determining the area of SAB would be a nightmare.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Poly currently has the worst pool size per number of guests. Grand Floridian has the best at all of WDW, excluding BC/YC since those are not comparable. See my post a few years ago highlighting how bad Poly is and Riviera middle of the road.

While Grand Floridian has the biggest pools per guests it is quite bland and concrete for my taste over WL, Riviera, AK, etcs that have some green spaces and views.

Wow! Thanks. Very interesting.
This seems to align with my personal experience. I haven’t been to all pools but the Poly Lava pool is usually ridiculously overcrowded and honestly a disappointment. The Poly Oasis pool is hit or miss, and lovely when a group of tweens and their Dads aren’t playing football in the pool. I don’t think the add’l pool at the Poly tower will fix the Poly’s pool problem. Poly, sadly, has the worst overall pool situation.
The pools I’ve enjoyed most are the quiet pool at Boulder Ridge, and the Paddock pool at SS, which also has a good slide.
I think the best slide in all of DVC is at Vero Beach! (yes, even beating SAB). The WL main pool is too crowded.
The Riviera main pool was nice but nothing amazing, but I did like it. The Riviera quiet pool seemed very uncrowded and in a nice location. The Riviera pool offerings seem to work pretty well for the size of the resort.
Bay Lake Tower pool is fine and seems to benefit from having its attendance limited to BLT guests. I had low expectations for the BLT pool but actually enjoyed it more than expected.
The actual pool at Beach Club is great and so is the slide (wish you didn’t need to go outside the resort to use it though). However the chairs around the pool are really crammed in there. Generally, I think the overall SAB situatuon is fun for sure but maybe a bit over rated.
I have seen but not actually used the pools at Grand Floridian. The GF pools look very nice and did not seem crowded but this is based on just walking through the resort on a few occasions, which also made me wonder if you feel like you’re on display when using the GF pools. They seem out in the open and not private from the resort’s busy foot traffic, as well as being visible from the monorail.
That is the extent of my Disney pool experience. I think I need to do more in-person research!

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

Poly currently has the worst pool size per number of guests. Grand Floridian has the best at all of WDW, excluding BC/YC

Nice analysis. Does this include splash pad areas? Mention that because Poly’s is like 2-3x as large as RR/VGF/WL etc and that draws a lot of small families (mine included).

Lava pool is a great vibe. Views of the castle while swimming are unmatched in the DVC system. Scents from Ohana wafting down… but yes the gold rush for seating and space is a turn-off.

Having just stayed at VGF with just my wife and enjoying both pools…they are very nice for adults, and my kids would have fun but not as much as at PVB IMO. I do enjoy the grounds and the monorail wizzing by.

 

[Rex1993]

It looks like we're 90% on pulling the trigger on 300pts direct at Grand Floridian. Total cost with magical beginnings ends up at $159/pt. I think that's really good but the only thing holding us back is that we really liked Kidani and would be fine staying there anytime we go to Orlando, which is probably ever other year at best. Thoughts?

 

[Sandisw]

It looks like we're 90% on pulling the trigger on 300pts direct at Grand Floridian. Total cost with magical beginnings ends up at $159/pt. I think that's really good but the only thing holding us back is that we really liked Kidani and would be fine staying there anytime we go to Orlando, which is probably ever other year at best. Thoughts?

I still think the number one factor is buying where you want to stay, if there is one. While the VGF...which is my second favorite resort...is a great deal and getting Kidani seems easier at 7 months...I think its a tough choice to go with 300 points at a resort you may want to trade out of all the time.

But, if VGF would also be okay to stay at every time if you can't trade into Kidani, then its definitely worth it!!!

 

[Royal Consort]

It looks like we're 90% on pulling the trigger on 300pts direct at Grand Floridian. Total cost with magical beginnings ends up at $159/pt. I think that's really good but the only thing holding us back is that we really liked Kidani and would be fine staying there anytime we go to Orlando, which is probably ever other year at best. Thoughts?

Buy Kidani resale and save yourself the extra $59 a point? I'm not buying a Rolls Royce if a Ford will do me perfectly well.

 

[tom1944]

We have no plans to go more than once a year however I can see our 7-day trip becoming an 8-day to a 10-day trip and potentially up a 30-day trip with a stop at Hilton Head in the mix.

If it happens it will be incremental.

 

[Rex1993]

Buy Kidani resale and save yourself the extra $59 a point? I'm not buying a Rolls Royce if a Ford will do me perfectly well.

Understood. I should have been more clear in my initial post. We do have a desire to stay at the Grand Floridian, just that we would be fine staying at Kidani too. I think we'd like to have the option to stay at either but would buy into the one that is harder to get at 7 months. That definitely seems like VGF.

 

[ARobyn]

The footprint of the new Poly Tower looks so small in comparison to its neighbors, both of which have such expansive grounds. That diminishes it a bit for me.

That's how we feel about Riviera. Don't get me wrong, we LOVE it, and I will continue to stay there on occasion but it's not my favorite because it's lacking expansive grounds. I know this is a broken record statement, but it does feel more like a hotel than a resort. Poly tower could follow in the same footsteps.

 

[Royal Consort]

Understood. I should have been more clear in my initial post. We do have a desire to stay at the Grand Floridian, just that we would be fine staying at Kidani too. I think we'd like to have the option to stay at either but would buy into the one that is harder to get at 7 months. That definitely seems like VGF.

The other option may be purchasing half of that direct at VGF and then the AKV on resale. The only thing is you'd need to go annually with that plan, banking and borrowing.