Buy VGF direct or wait for Poly 2

[I am Moana of Motunui]

I currently have a Poly resale contract and have been thinking about adding 150 points at VGF because of the current promotion/incentives and getting direct benefits. I am a little torn because, in the event I want to stay in a 1 bedroom villa, I would need to wait until the 7-month mark to be able to access both my Poly and VGF points. I wonder if I'm better off holding out for Poly 2 to see if it’s part of the same association, even though the current promotion is hard to pass up. Advice would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Hubalorian]

Would you be open to a Poly/VGF split stay in a worse case scenario?

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

We’re in the same boat. Poly resale and RR direct (blue card). Considering adding on VGF because 1) it’s a beautiful resort in its own right, and 2) I doubt PVB2 incentives will net down to $161/pt for 150 points and MB.

We would likely split the 150 VGF into 100 and 50 so we could easily sell the smaller at a later time. Also considering selling PVB resale, since there really isn’t a home resort advantage there (at this time…could change…).

I like the idea of direct VGF over resale Poly to keep our options of where we stay open (e.g., PVB2 and RR especially). It’s probably the last direct resort that’ll grandfather access to the Club resorts.

We might also hang onto Poly and rent those points most years. No shortage of demand for Poly from renters.

 

[JulieBeeRN]

You would probably get a better “monetary” deal with VGF bc the incentives are so low, but I would only buy if you really want to stay there.

 

[ARobyn]

I'm in the same predicament. We just closed our first resale contract and weren't planning on buying direct until Poly tower. However, with the really great incentives on VGF right now, I doubt it will go lower than that for Poly 2, might just pull the trigger now.

 

[Traveling on cc points]

A lot of us feel your pain. I am at a loss of what to do too.
I really want more information on the cabins at fort wilderness like the buy in price, length of contract, points per night, Amenities going in ect.

We really have no need for direct as we qualify for FL resident AP’s but won’t be able to use our resale points at the cabins and the big appeal to us is that we can bring our dog with us on short 1 or 2 night stays.

Since we don’t usually book too far in advance and wouldn’t want to go during super busy times I feel like the smartest move is to buy 150 points at VGF now BUT if the points per night at the cabins is more than we are willing to pay then I would have wasted a ton of money buying direct. Ugh.

 

[Cfabar1]

A lot of us feel your pain. I am at a loss of what to do too.
I really want more information on the cabins at fort wilderness like the buy in price, length of contract, points per night, Amenities going in ect.

Yes, we are going to be very curious… Anywhere we can bring our dog piques my interest… I’d love to let him be able to enjoy the Disney magic! However, that is a while away, and it remains unclear to me if they think they will be selling the Cabins at the same time as Poly? Either way… the Cabins will be great for our AK stays, where we’d have to drive around anyways, and possibly our Hollywood studios stays, but we want to be able to Monorail our way around town or ideally WALK…. I’d prefer to buy Bay Lake, but, given the prices at VGF for direct, think we are going to stick with that.

 

[varns529]

Well I could be wrong, but i'd guess the direct pricing for Poly 2 is going to be $230. So even with great incentives the VGF deal right now would still be a lot better.

 

[Traveling on cc points]

Yes, we are going to be very curious… Anywhere we can bring our dog piques my interest… I’d love to let him be able to enjoy the Disney magic! However, that is a while away, and it remains unclear to me if they think they will be selling the Cabins at the same time as Poly? Either way… the Cabins will be great for our AK stays, where we’d have to drive around anyways, and possibly our Hollywood studios stays, but we want to be able to Monorail our way around town or ideally WALK…. I’d prefer to buy Bay Lake, but, given the prices at VGF for direct, think we are going to stick with that.

Agree with everything you said!
According to the news release, the cabins will open in 2024 so if all goes according to plan, they will be selling Poly and the cabins at the same time.
My gut tells me to just add on at VGF now because it is very likely that the resale price will jump when it sells out again and I should be able to break even if I decided to sell in a couple of years.

Convincing DH of this plan will be the hard part

 

[Nursemanit]

If PVB2 is a separate association - then I would say consider it as a better than VGF alternative since they ruined the balance of VGF with the 200+ resort studio addition. Both VGF1 and Poly 2 would be very similar in location to amenities except Poly 2 will likely have retail / food in the building making it slightly better.

If Poly is one association, then they would be equal in high studio / low 1/2/3 br mix and it would be up to your personal taste as to resort decor / theme.

I don't subscribe to the " millions of resale people " theory as a negative since that has not proven to be an issue in other resorts. Room balance is the key not resale vs direct. No one would be upset if VGF2 had the same ratio of 1/2/3 br as VGF1.

I don't think there will be a better deal between the two of them then the current VGF 161 for 150 point deal so if money is a big concern - go for it. Remember Poly is actually the "real world " most point expensive resort most weeks.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

If PVB2 is a separate association - then I would say consider it as a better than VGF alternative since they ruined the balance of VGF with the 200+ resort studio addition. Both VGF1 and Poly 2 would be very similar in location to amenities except Poly 2 will likely have retail / food in the building making it slightly better.

If Poly is one association, then they would be equal in high studio / low 1/2/3 br mix and it would be up to your personal taste as to resort decor / theme.

I don't subscribe to the " millions of resale people " theory as a negative since that has not proven to be an issue in other resorts. Room balance is the key not resale vs direct. No one would be upset if VGF2 had the same ratio of 1/2/3 br as VGF1.

I don't think there will be a better deal between the two of them then the current VGF 161 for 150 point deal so if money is a big concern - go for it. Remember Poly is actually the "real world " most point expensive resort most weeks.

Can you expand on this? What does this mean? Thanks… “Remember Poly is actually the "real world " most point expensive resort most weeks.”

 

[Nursemanit]

Can you expand on this? What does this mean? Thanks… “Remember Poly is actually the "real world " most point expensive resort most weeks.”

For a studio - Poly is more expensive in points than VGF for season 3-7 , equal in season 2 , and only in September is it cheaper than VGF.

And the bungalows are so outrageous people should price a trip to Bali instead.

 

[defrogger]

2 People said VGF for $161/p for 150 points direct? I did the add on tool and im calculating more like $194/p for 150 points.
Is there more incentives somewhere like using the disney visa bringing it down more?
Or was 161 just a typo

 

[WDWfantasy]

2 People said VGF for $161/p for 150 points direct? I did the add on tool and im calculating more like $194/p for 150 points.
Is there more incentives somewhere like using the disney visa bringing it down more?
Or was 161 just a typo

The add on tool doesn’t account for the $1500 Welcome Home credit (if you have a reservation in the future) and the $22 Magical Beginnings (if you sell your first year’s points back to Disney for $22 per point). Those 2 incentives knock an additional $32 per point off the total.

 

[ehh]

since they ruined the balance of VGF with the 200+ resort studio addition

While this is the expectation/intuition of many, data does not support this.

I've only done one deep dive into booking velocities at VGF in the Home Resort window (which covered 11/17/23 - 3/9/24), but I have done a bunch of lower-effort spotchecks and even today a cursory glance of inventory shows it's quite a balanced resort in the 7-11m window with current sales (no promises once it sells out again...can't trust those new neighbors).

It's more balanced than Copper Creek and significantly more balanced than Riviera in terms of when different room/view categories completely book up. I haven't done all resorts and I don't have pre-VGF2 data for VGF, but there's a decent chance VGF is currently the most balanced resort following the addition of VGF2.

Resort Studios are surprisingly popular in terms of booking velocity during the 7-11m window, noticeably more popular than Deluxe Studios (which shocked me). Taking into account inventory size, Deluxe Studios do 'sell out' faster than Resort Studios, but not that much. Standard View RS are the most popular rooms at VGF in terms of owner booking velocity, but RS overall are somewhat held back by the mega-points Theme Park View (which are few in number).

(n.b., the bulk of the analysis above/below was done looking at dates that did not 'sell out' yet, as once a category sells out the other categories have their booking velocities influenced by the sold out category...the proverbial booking balloon is squeezed to other categories)

Looking at just room categories (not specific views), Deluxe Studios are the fastest to 'sell out' at VGF and do so about 1.4x faster than the least popular category, 1BR, which is a pretty narrow gap between min/max. Even getting granular down to specific views, SV Deluxe Studios 'sell out' just 2.8x as fast as TPV Resort Studios. These ranges are narrow for min/max. EDIT: I'd also like to add it's really uncommon for a studio to be the least popular room+view category at a resort.

Compared to Copper Creek, the difference in 'sell out' rates between Studios and the 2nd most popular CCV category (ded 2BR) is only slightly narrower (1.3x) than the difference between VGF's min/max (1.4x). CCV Studios sell out 1.5x as fast as 1BR, 1.7x as fast as GV, and 7x as fast as Cabins. If it weren't for the Cabins, CCV would be fairly balanced! Walk-in shower is slightly more popular than tub, fwiw.

Compared to Riviera, VGF is night/day better. Riviera bookings have a significant bias toward Standard View in all room categories. In terms of 'sell out' rates, the smallest difference between any SV/PV split within a single room category at Riviera is 2.1x for Deluxe Studios, larger than the difference between VGF SV Deluxe Studio (the most popular) and VGF LV 1BR (the least popular non-RS), at 2x. Looking at Deluxe Studios vs. Tower vs. 1BR vs. 2BR vs. GV as categories, Riviera is also pretty unbalanced. TS 'sell out' 1.6x as fast as DS, DS 'sell out' 2x as fast as GV/dedicated 2BR and 2.5x as fast as 1BR. In terms of min/max factoring in views, Riviera has a 9.2x 'sell out' rate at TS compared to PV 1BR, and even an 8.7x 'sell out' rate at SV Deluxe Studio vs. PV 1BR.

 

[I am Moana of Motunui]

Would you be open to a Poly/VGF split stay in a worse case scenario?

I hadn't even thought about that! Great point.

 

[Nursemanit]

While this is the expectation/intuition of many, data does not support this.

I've only done one deep dive into booking velocities at VGF in the Home Resort window (which covered 11/17/23 - 3/9/24), but I have done a bunch of lower-effort spotchecks and even today a cursory glance of inventory shows it's quite a balanced resort in the 7-11m window with current sales (no promises once it sells out again...can't trust those new neighbors).

It's more balanced than Copper Creek and significantly more balanced than Riviera in terms of when different room/view categories completely book up. I haven't done all resorts and I don't have pre-VGF2 data for VGF, but there's a decent chance VGF is currently the most balanced resort following the addition of VGF2.

Resort Studios are surprisingly popular in terms of booking velocity during the 7-11m window, noticeably more popular than Deluxe Studios (which shocked me). Taking into account inventory size, Deluxe Studios do 'sell out' faster than Resort Studios, but not that much. Standard View RS are the most popular rooms at VGF in terms of owner booking velocity, but RS overall are somewhat held back by the mega-points Theme Park View (which are few in number).

(n.b., the bulk of the analysis above/below was done looking at dates that did not 'sell out' yet, as once a category sells out the other categories have their booking velocities influenced by the sold out category...the proverbial booking balloon is squeezed to other categories)

Looking at just room categories (not specific views), Deluxe Studios are the fastest to 'sell out' at VGF and do so about 1.4x faster than the least popular category, 1BR, which is a pretty narrow gap between min/max. Even getting granular down to specific views, SV Deluxe Studios 'sell out' just 2.8x as fast as TPV Resort Studios. These ranges are narrow for min/max. EDIT: I'd also like to add it's really uncommon for a studio to be the least popular room+view category at a resort.

Compared to Copper Creek, the difference in 'sell out' rates between Studios and the 2nd most popular CCV category (ded 2BR) is only slightly narrower (1.3x) than the difference between VGF's min/max (1.4x). CCV Studios sell out 1.5x as fast as 1BR, 1.7x as fast as GV, and 7x as fast as Cabins. If it weren't for the Cabins, CCV would be fairly balanced! Walk-in shower is slightly more popular than tub, fwiw.

Compared to Riviera, VGF is night/day better. Riviera bookings have a significant bias toward Standard View in all room categories. In terms of 'sell out' rates, the smallest difference between any SV/PV split within a single room category at Riviera is 2.1x for Deluxe Studios, larger than the difference between VGF SV Deluxe Studio (the most popular) and VGF LV 1BR (the least popular non-RS), at 2x. Looking at Deluxe Studios vs. Tower vs. 1BR vs. 2BR vs. GV as categories, Riviera is also pretty unbalanced. TS 'sell out' 1.6x as fast as DS, DS 'sell out' 2x as fast as GV/dedicated 2BR and 2.5x as fast as 1BR. In terms of min/max factoring in views, Riviera has a 9.2x 'sell out' rate at TS compared to PV 1BR, and even an 8.7x 'sell out' rate at SV Deluxe Studio vs. PV 1BR.

Sorry - none of this reflects real world - Riveria is the most balanced for room types which for an owner is what matters - I can book a week of SV studio 3 weeks late for fall through Dec 15th where VGF1 studios are booked at 11 months.

Try booking 3 2BR at VGF at 7 months vs. RR at seven months - you will be at Riveria

 

[I am Moana of Motunui]

Would you be open to a Poly/VGF split stay in a worse case scenario?

I'm in the same predicament. We just closed our first resale contract and weren't planning on buying direct until Poly tower. However, with the really great incentives on VGF right now, I doubt it will go lower than that for Poly 2, might just pull the trigger now.

I'm in the same predicament. We just closed our first resale contract and weren't planning on buying direct until Poly tower. However, with the really great incentives on VGF right now, I doubt it will go lower than that for Poly 2, might just pull the trigger now.

Same here. I was holding off for Poly 2 and now got swept up in VGF because of the incentives.

 

[Bmramaut]

We are waiting for Poly 2. The Polynesian is our absolute favorite resort and we know we are going to want home priority there. The incentives are amazing right now at VGF but we do not need another 150 points. Our sweet spot would be another 100 points max so we are out. Buying where you want to stay is huge and I know we will want to stay there for years ahead.

 

[maui22]

While this is the expectation/intuition of many, data does not support this.

I've only done one deep dive into booking velocities at VGF in the Home Resort window (which covered 11/17/23 - 3/9/24), but I have done a bunch of lower-effort spotchecks and even today a cursory glance of inventory shows it's quite a balanced resort in the 7-11m window with current sales (no promises once it sells out again...can't trust those new neighbors).

It's more balanced than Copper Creek and significantly more balanced than Riviera in terms of when different room/view categories completely book up. I haven't done all resorts and I don't have pre-VGF2 data for VGF, but there's a decent chance VGF is currently the most balanced resort following the addition of VGF2.

Resort Studios are surprisingly popular in terms of booking velocity during the 7-11m window, noticeably more popular than Deluxe Studios (which shocked me). Taking into account inventory size, Deluxe Studios do 'sell out' faster than Resort Studios, but not that much. Standard View RS are the most popular rooms at VGF in terms of owner booking velocity, but RS overall are somewhat held back by the mega-points Theme Park View (which are few in number).

(n.b., the bulk of the analysis above/below was done looking at dates that did not 'sell out' yet, as once a category sells out the other categories have their booking velocities influenced by the sold out category...the proverbial booking balloon is squeezed to other categories)

Looking at just room categories (not specific views), Deluxe Studios are the fastest to 'sell out' at VGF and do so about 1.4x faster than the least popular category, 1BR, which is a pretty narrow gap between min/max. Even getting granular down to specific views, SV Deluxe Studios 'sell out' just 2.8x as fast as TPV Resort Studios. These ranges are narrow for min/max. EDIT: I'd also like to add it's really uncommon for a studio to be the least popular room+view category at a resort.

Compared to Copper Creek, the difference in 'sell out' rates between Studios and the 2nd most popular CCV category (ded 2BR) is only slightly narrower (1.3x) than the difference between VGF's min/max (1.4x). CCV Studios sell out 1.5x as fast as 1BR, 1.7x as fast as GV, and 7x as fast as Cabins. If it weren't for the Cabins, CCV would be fairly balanced! Walk-in shower is slightly more popular than tub, fwiw.

Compared to Riviera, VGF is night/day better. Riviera bookings have a significant bias toward Standard View in all room categories. In terms of 'sell out' rates, the smallest difference between any SV/PV split within a single room category at Riviera is 2.1x for Deluxe Studios, larger than the difference between VGF SV Deluxe Studio (the most popular) and VGF LV 1BR (the least popular non-RS), at 2x. Looking at Deluxe Studios vs. Tower vs. 1BR vs. 2BR vs. GV as categories, Riviera is also pretty unbalanced. TS 'sell out' 1.6x as fast as DS, DS 'sell out' 2x as fast as GV/dedicated 2BR and 2.5x as fast as 1BR. In terms of min/max factoring in views, Riviera has a 9.2x 'sell out' rate at TS compared to PV 1BR, and even an 8.7x 'sell out' rate at SV Deluxe Studio vs. PV 1BR.

It will be interesting to see how this works out after the resort is sold out.

Do you think some of the Resort Studio popularity is because only 2BR and larger have 2 real beds? If so, it will be interesting to see what they opted to include in Poly tower, as well as the association decision.