Buy VGF direct or wait for Poly 2

[RoseGold]

I think it depends on how long you hold this. Poly2 will have an extra decade on the contract, assuming new association.

It should cost more, and it will. If that decade means something to you, I would wait for Poly2.

 

[RoseGold]

I've only done one deep dive into booking velocities at VGF in the Home Resort window (which covered 11/17/23 - 3/9/24), but I have done a bunch of lower-effort spotchecks and even today a cursory glance of inventory shows it's quite a balanced resort in the 7-11m window with current sales (no promises once it sells out again...can't trust those new neighbors).

It's pretty much sold out now, not many points left. I have been very pleased with booking patterns, as I HATED the noise in the awful new building and own VGF1 points.

 

[ehh]

Sorry - none of this reflects real world - Riveria is the most balanced for room types which for an owner is what matters - I can book a week of SV studio 3 weeks late for fall through Dec 15th where VGF1 studios are booked at 11 months.

Try booking 3 2BR at VGF at 7 months vs. RR at seven months - you will be at Riveria

Sounds like you're assessing something different than I am.

Candidly, you're also comparing four (boolean) data points vs. thousands of (integer) data points, both measuring the real world.

#1, I'm not measuring availability at 7 months, that's a different question that also factors in how much owners use their points at their Home resort vs. at others. 7m availability is an interesting and important question, but it's not 'balance'. I completely agree with your assessment that it's harder to book 3 2BR at VGF at 7m than it is at RIV (PV 2BR will almost always be available at RIV at 7m, because it's not balanced).

#2, I'm measuring how quickly rooms 'sell out' compared to each other within a resort during Home Resort window, but not across resorts. VGF's fastest booking rooms 'sell out' only a little faster than their slowest booking rooms during Home Resort window. I think this is a better definition of balance. If everything books up quickly, it's still balanced, just more competitive than other resorts (or maybe just at that time of year).

Riviera's Tower Studios and SV Deluxe Studios sell out significantly faster than most of their categories, basically everything but SV 2BRded. The data is unambiguous: Riviera is unbalanced when comparing how quickly rooms/views sell out compared to other rooms/views at RIV. SV is significantly more popular than PV and Tower/Deluxe Studios are significantly more popular than 1BR/2BR/GV. But it doesn't mean you aren't having success booking SV Studios if owners are slower to book/less competitive/use points elsewhere/use points at different times of year.

While my analysis looked at the actual number of rooms available, a simpler way to do the analysis is to look at the number of days in the Home Resort window a room/view category is sold out, repeat for all views. Anybody can do this with just some effort and no special know-how. Data gathered on 4/9/24, looking at dates between 11/17/23 - 3/9/24:

• VGF had 392 sold out night-categories (across 12 room/view types)
  • Average of 33 sold out nights per category
  • STDEV of 15 from the following (lower STDEV = less variance = more balance):
    • 59 sold out nights in SV 2BRLO
    • 51 sold out nights in SV DS
    • 51 sold out nights in GV
    • 37 sold out nights in SV RS
    • 35 sold out nights in LV 2BRLO
    • 30 sold out nights in SV 2BRded
    • 28 sold out nights in LV DS
    • 27 sold out nights in SV 1BR
    • 25 sold out nights in LV 2BRded
    • 24 sold out nights in LV 1BR
    • 13 sold out nights in LV RS
    • 12 sold out nights in TPV RS
• CCV had 291 sold out night-categories (across 8 room/view types)
  • Average of 36 sold out nights per category
  • STDEV of 20 from the following:
    • 55 sold out nights in Walk-in Shower 2BRLO
    • 54 sold out nights in Walk-in Shower DS
    • 52 sold out nights in Tub 2BRLO
    • 48 sold out nights in Tub DS
    • 33 sold out nights in 2BRded
    • 30 sold out nights in GV
    • 19 sold out nights in 1BR
    • 0 sold out nights in Cabin
• RIV had 309 sold out night-categories (across 10 room/view types)
  • Average of 31 sold out nights per category
  • STDEV of 30 from the following:
    • 85 sold out nights in TS
    • 65 sold out nights in SV DS
    • 65 sold out nights in SV 2BRLO
    • 32 sold out nights in SV 2BRded
    • 21 sold out nights in PV DS
    • 21 sold out nights in PV 2BRLO
    • 11 sold out nights in GV
    • 7 sold out nights in SV 1BR
    • 2 sold out nights in PV 2BRded
    • 0 sold out nights in PV 1BR

 

[ehh]

Anyway, to the OP's question of waiting for Poly 2 vs. buying into VGF: for the times you want to stay in a 1BR, would you feel okay alternating years?

We have contracts at VGF and RIV that are both 'half-size' for what we need in a year, but we alternate between them each year. No need to risk 7m availability and combining points. Though this will not work at Poly2 if it's a separate association. Furthermore, your Poly1 points will only be usable at Poly2 if purchased before Jan 2019.

For us Poly1 owners, so much is murky about the direction of Poly2 that it's hard to make a recommendation. Generally, if you're compelled to stay in a specific resort longterm, you probably ought to have points there. Do you feel that way about VGF and how would you feel if Poly2 is fantastic but you can't use your Poly1 points?

It will be interesting to see how this works out after the resort is sold out.

Do you think some of the Resort Studio popularity is because only 2BR and larger have 2 real beds? If so, it will be interesting to see what they opted to include in Poly tower, as well as the association decision.

I have two theories for Resort Studio popularity: 1) 2 real beds; 2) they're new. We'll see if the popularity lasts, but I wouldn't be surprised if the 2 real beds for low points (for VGF) aspect is a big draw longterm.

 

[Sandisw]

While this is the expectation/intuition of many, data does not support this.

I've only done one deep dive into booking velocities at VGF in the Home Resort window (which covered 11/17/23 - 3/9/24), but I have done a bunch of lower-effort spotchecks and even today a cursory glance of inventory shows it's quite a balanced resort in the 7-11m window with current sales (no promises once it sells out again...can't trust those new neighbors).

It's more balanced than Copper Creek and significantly more balanced than Riviera in terms of when different room/view categories completely book up. I haven't done all resorts and I don't have pre-VGF2 data for VGF, but there's a decent chance VGF is currently the most balanced resort following the addition of VGF2.

Resort Studios are surprisingly popular in terms of booking velocity during the 7-11m window, noticeably more popular than Deluxe Studios (which shocked me). Taking into account inventory size, Deluxe Studios do 'sell out' faster than Resort Studios, but not that much. Standard View RS are the most popular rooms at VGF in terms of owner booking velocity, but RS overall are somewhat held back by the mega-points Theme Park View (which are few in number).

(n.b., the bulk of the analysis above/below was done looking at dates that did not 'sell out' yet, as once a category sells out the other categories have their booking velocities influenced by the sold out category...the proverbial booking balloon is squeezed to other categories)

Looking at just room categories (not specific views), Deluxe Studios are the fastest to 'sell out' at VGF and do so about 1.4x faster than the least popular category, 1BR, which is a pretty narrow gap between min/max. Even getting granular down to specific views, SV Deluxe Studios 'sell out' just 2.8x as fast as TPV Resort Studios. These ranges are narrow for min/max. EDIT: I'd also like to add it's really uncommon for a studio to be the least popular room+view category at a resort.

Compared to Copper Creek, the difference in 'sell out' rates between Studios and the 2nd most popular CCV category (ded 2BR) is only slightly narrower (1.3x) than the difference between VGF's min/max (1.4x). CCV Studios sell out 1.5x as fast as 1BR, 1.7x as fast as GV, and 7x as fast as Cabins. If it weren't for the Cabins, CCV would be fairly balanced! Walk-in shower is slightly more popular than tub, fwiw.

Compared to Riviera, VGF is night/day better. Riviera bookings have a significant bias toward Standard View in all room categories. In terms of 'sell out' rates, the smallest difference between any SV/PV split within a single room category at Riviera is 2.1x for Deluxe Studios, larger than the difference between VGF SV Deluxe Studio (the most popular) and VGF LV 1BR (the least popular non-RS), at 2x. Looking at Deluxe Studios vs. Tower vs. 1BR vs. 2BR vs. GV as categories, Riviera is also pretty unbalanced. TS 'sell out' 1.6x as fast as DS, DS 'sell out' 2x as fast as GV/dedicated 2BR and 2.5x as fast as 1BR. In terms of min/max factoring in views, Riviera has a 9.2x 'sell out' rate at TS compared to PV 1BR, and even an 8.7x 'sell out' rate at SV Deluxe Studio vs. PV 1BR.

I have been monitoring it as well and while I do think that owners booking right at 11 months, with BPK 50% sold, would have been successful in securing those larger units, I have noticed that at the 7 month mark, what used to be easy for me to get with my SSR points has no longer been the case.

What I am seeing, with the 1 bedrooms especially, now requires one to book farther out than they may have had to before during home resort booking.....which is why I am glad I have home resort advantage, something that I never needed before the addition of BPK.

So, it appears that the booking of the 1 bedroom SV, for the times I have watched are being booked up faster during the home resort window than they have in the past, which to me is a result of people who have bought with this round to use in VGF1.

 

[Nursemanit]

Sounds like you're assessing something different than I am.

Candidly, you're also comparing four (boolean) data points vs. thousands of (integer) data points, both measuring the real world.

#1, I'm not measuring availability at 7 months, that's a different question that also factors in how much owners use their points at their Home resort vs. at others. 7m availability is an interesting and important question, but it's not 'balance'. I completely agree with your assessment that it's harder to book 3 2BR at VGF at 7m than it is at RIV (PV 2BR will almost always be available at RIV at 7m, because it's not balanced).

#2, I'm measuring how quickly rooms 'sell out' compared to each other within a resort during Home Resort window, but not across resorts. VGF's fastest booking rooms 'sell out' only a little faster than their slowest booking rooms during Home Resort window. I think this is a better definition of balance. If everything books up quickly, it's still balanced, just more competitive than other resorts (or maybe just at that time of year).

Riviera's Tower Studios and SV Deluxe Studios sell out significantly faster than most of their categories, basically everything but SV 2BRded. The data is unambiguous: Riviera is unbalanced when comparing how quickly rooms/views sell out compared to other rooms/views at RIV. SV is significantly more popular than PV and Tower/Deluxe Studios are significantly more popular than 1BR/2BR/GV. But it doesn't mean you aren't having success booking SV Studios if owners are slower to book/less competitive/use points elsewhere/use points at different times of year.

While my analysis looked at the actual number of rooms available, a simpler way to do the analysis is to look at the number of days in the Home Resort window a room/view category is sold out, repeat for all views. Anybody can do this with just some effort and no special know-how. Data gathered on 4/9/24, looking at dates between 11/17/23 - 3/9/24:

• VGF had 392 sold out night-categories (across 12 room/view types)
  • Average of 33 sold out nights per category
  • STDEV of 15 from the following (lower STDEV = less variance = more balance):
    • 59 sold out nights in SV 2BRLO
    • 51 sold out nights in SV DS
    • 51 sold out nights in GV
    • 37 sold out nights in SV RS
    • 35 sold out nights in LV 2BRLO
    • 30 sold out nights in SV 2BRded
    • 28 sold out nights in LV DS
    • 27 sold out nights in SV 1BR
    • 25 sold out nights in LV 2BRded
    • 24 sold out nights in LV 1BR
    • 13 sold out nights in LV RS
    • 12 sold out nights in TPV RS
• CCV had 291 sold out night-categories (across 8 room/view types)
  • Average of 36 sold out nights per category
  • STDEV of 20 from the following:
    • 55 sold out nights in Walk-in Shower 2BRLO
    • 54 sold out nights in Walk-in Shower DS
    • 52 sold out nights in Tub 2BRLO
    • 48 sold out nights in Tub DS
    • 33 sold out nights in 2BRded
    • 30 sold out nights in GV
    • 19 sold out nights in 1BR
    • 0 sold out nights in Cabin
• RIV had 309 sold out night-categories (across 10 room/view types)
  • Average of 31 sold out nights per category
  • STDEV of 30 from the following:
    • 85 sold out nights in TS
    • 65 sold out nights in SV DS
    • 65 sold out nights in SV 2BRLO
    • 32 sold out nights in SV 2BRded
    • 21 sold out nights in PV DS
    • 21 sold out nights in PV 2BRLO
    • 11 sold out nights in GV
    • 7 sold out nights in SV 1BR
    • 2 sold out nights in PV 2BRded
    • 0 sold out nights in PV 1BR

I would not count 2 br lock offs as this is skewing the data and counting sold out nights twice.

RR is 38% studio / 5 % TS / 36 % 1BR and 19% 2 br ( 2 % GV)

VGF is 71% studio / 13.5 % 1 br / 13.5 2 br / and less than 2 % GV

( I can’t see why there are more sold out VGF 2BR lock offs vs the components- I thought all 1BR were lock offs ?)

 

[defrogger]

The add on tool doesn’t account for the $1500 Welcome Home credit (if you have a reservation in the future) and the $22 Magical Beginnings (if you sell your first year’s points back to Disney for $22 per point). Those 2 incentives knock an additional $32 per point off the total.

Ah, that might be worth looking into, dam now im thinking of getting more points

 

[ehh]

I would not count 2 br lock offs as this is skewing the data and counting sold out nights twice.

RR is 38% studio / 5 % TS / 36 % 1BR and 19% 2 br ( 2 % GV)

VGF is 71% studio / 13.5 % 1 br / 13.5 2 br / and less than 2 % GV

Happy to drop 2BRLOs from the numbers. But it does make VGF even more balanced and RIV more unbalanced.

VGF, excluding 2BRLOs:

• Max sold out nights: 51
• Min sold out nights: 12
• Avg sold out nights: 30
• STDEV of sold out nights: 13

CCV, excluding 2BRLOs:

• Max sold out nights: 54
• Min sold out nights: 0
• Avg sold out nights: 31
• STDEV: 20

RIV, excluding 2BRLOs:

• Max sold out nights: 85
• Min sold out nights: 0
• Avg sold out nights: 28
• STDEV: 31

( I can’t see why there are more sold out VGF 2BR lock offs vs the components- I thought all 1BR were lock offs ?)

At VGF there were a handful of nights where 1BR sold out but the matching Deluxe Studio did not, which pushes 2BRLO sold out nights above DS. CCV had a similar thing for a few nights, too.

 

[ehh]

I have been monitoring it as well and while I do think that owners booking right at 11 months, with BPK 50% sold, would have been successful in securing those larger units, I have noticed that at the 7 month mark, what used to be easy for me to get with my SSR points has no longer been the case.

What I am seeing, with the 1 bedrooms especially, now requires one to book farther out than they may have had to before during home resort booking.....which is why I am glad I have home resort advantage, something that I never needed before the addition of BPK.

So, it appears that the booking of the 1 bedroom SV, for the times I have watched are being booked up faster during the home resort window than they have in the past, which to me is a result of people who have bought with this round to use in VGF1.

Totally. We bought in at VGF2 specifically to use at VGF1 1BR, so we're contributing to this. We bought in after the realization that 1BR inventory at 7m had dried up after the expansion (at least for the dates we typically travel).

After seeing 1BR inventory get worse I decided to dig into where the availability had shifted to (if anywhere) and did this deep dive into inventory only to find a shockingly balanced resort post-expansion. I definitely had to reassess some priors after seeing the data.

 

[Nursemanit]

So what the data is saying is 70% studios is more balanced to demand than 42 % - Ok well that is not out of line with common wisdom.

But you would think that RR would be like Boardwalk where SV studios are hard to get - but no they are very easy at 11 months.

That proportion means if Poly 2 is separate it would need lots of studios so hopefully that building is large enough for at least a VGF quantity of 1 /2 bedrooms.

 

[ehh]

So what the data is saying is 70% studios is more balanced to demand than 42 % - Ok well that is not out of line with common wisdom.

But you would think that RR would be like Boardwalk where SV studios are hard to get - but no they are very easy at 11 months.

That proportion means if Poly 2 is separate it would need lots of studios so hopefully that building is large enough for at least a VGF quantity of 1 /2 bedrooms.

Agree on Poly2. Without knowing what Poly2's room distribution is, I do sincerely hope they have enough Studios or are still considering including Poly1 into the association to supply that demand. I also hope they don't lean too far into Theme Park View--the points demand is proving to be unpopular at VGF so far.

As for RIV SV Studios, they are kind of hard to get at 11m!

Early May is becoming increasingly popular (low points, May the 4th, chance of last good weather before summer, Flower/Garden, probably other stuff I'm forgetting). It's not early Dec popular, but not a quiet period for DVC either. Of all the Studios in WDW, these are the only ones not available to book for any 7 consecutive nights between 5/1 - 5/13:

• RIV SV DS
• BLT SV DS* (I believe it will be undergoing refurb)
• VGF SV DS
• Jambo Std DS
• Jambo Club DS*
• Jambo Value DS*
• BWV SV DS
• BWV BWV DS*

* = 'walked out' at least 1 day from 11m from today, too

This is just one snapshot in time, but RIV SV is in the same availability boat as BWV SV...of course so is VGF SV DS haha. Tough to go back much further, BoardWalk SV inventory is refurb-constrained until some point in April, and still might be 'recovering' in May. This isn't to say that RIV SV and BWV SV have the same relative demand, they don't, BWV SV DS is one of the most popular categories (and has booking pressure from 2BRLOs being the only 2BR), but RIV SV DS is not an easy category to book right now--and that's with declarations being ahead of points sold.

 

[Nursemanit]

Agree on Poly2. Without knowing what Poly2's room distribution is, I do sincerely hope they have enough Studios or are still considering including Poly1 into the association to supply that demand. I also hope they don't lean too far into Theme Park View--the points demand is proving to be unpopular at VGF so far.

As for RIV SV Studios, they are kind of hard to get at 11m!

Early May is becoming increasingly popular (low points, May the 4th, chance of last good weather before summer, Flower/Garden, probably other stuff I'm forgetting). It's not early Dec popular, but not a quiet period for DVC either. Of all the Studios in WDW, these are the only ones not available to book for any 7 consecutive nights between 5/1 - 5/13:

• RIV SV DS
• BLT SV DS* (I believe it will be undergoing refurb)
• VGF SV DS
• Jambo Std DS
• Jambo Club DS*
• Jambo Value DS*
• BWV SV DS
• BWV BWV DS*

* = 'walked out' at least 1 day from 11m from today, too

This is just one snapshot in time, but RIV SV is in the same availability boat as BWV SV...of course so is VGF SV DS haha. Tough to go back much further, BoardWalk SV inventory is refurb-constrained until some point in April, and still might be 'recovering' in May. This isn't to say that RIV SV and BWV SV have the same relative demand, they don't, BWV SV DS is one of the most popular categories (and has booking pressure from 2BRLOs being the only 2BR), but RIV SV DS is not an easy category to book right now--and that's with declarations being ahead of points sold.

Sunday I booked 1 BWV 2BR and 2 SV 2 Bedrooms at RIV for May 4th - 11th - RIV was wide open - but Boardwalk took 3 days of attempts. No chance of SV at Boardwalk

May 4th is Star Wars day at HS that’s killing the weekend

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

For Riviera, is the “standard” and “preferred” designation meant to indicate standard or preferred LOCATION rather than view???

 

[ehh]

For Riviera, is the “standard” and “preferred” designation meant to indicate standard or preferred LOCATION rather than view???

It's view:

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Okay, thanks. I don’t get it then.

 

[Sandisw]

Okay, thanks. I don’t get it then.

The SV overlook the parking lot which is why it’s classified as that, even though you get the fireworks view.

PV had the views of the lake which is certainly a nicer view during the day!

 

[tom1944]

It's view:
View attachment 765694

Probably should just make them both 18 points during that period

 

[Disney_escape]

Okay, thanks. I don’t get it then.

It should be 'pool' or 'no pool' view

 

[Disney_escape]

I currently have a Poly resale contract and have been thinking about adding 150 points at VGF because of the current promotion/incentives and getting direct benefits. I am a little torn because, in the event I want to stay in a 1 bedroom villa, I would need to wait until the 7-month mark to be able to access both my Poly and VGF points. I wonder if I'm better off holding out for Poly 2 to see if it’s part of the same association, even though the current promotion is hard to pass up. Advice would be greatly appreciated.

Buy where you smile the most. From a cost they can be looked at the same, if you figure 40-41 years left on the VGF and the new Poly will most likely be 50 years - VGF is roughly $4 per pnt /year and if current owner discounts are normal you would expect $200 at Poly2 so $4 per pnt/year. Of course this doesn't take into account any differences in annual dues and other minor assumptions.

 

[ARobyn]

Same here. I was holding off for Poly 2 and now got swept up in VGF because of the incentives.

I feel like it's almost too good to be true with these prices right now. I don't want to risk waiting and paying thousands more. As eager as I am to see how the new Poly tower turns out, and had plans to buy there, saving $$$ is more important to us. And we can at least use the points there once Poly tower does open, assuming there's 7 mo availability. That's how I'm rationalizing it in my head at least!