Buy Riv direct now, or wait for VGF2? Help please !

[Paul Stupin]

Please stop using a sold out resort price, please stop it’s just wrong

we hav gone over this time and again that We can’t use the price of a sold out resort as indicative of price for 2,000,000 new points added to the supply

Thank you.

 

[Ssplashhmtn]

My opinion is that there would be almost zero demand at that price, especially for value oriented studio buyers. And, in the history of DVC, there has never been an enormous price disparity between new and existing dvc properties. Never. Who knows, maybe this will be the first time. I know your heart is telling you it will be. But my head is telling me otherwise.

I don’t think they are mainly targeting ”value oriented studio buyers”, but rather people that are staying at The Grand Floridian Resort, and just paid cash rates of $900/night with tax for a hotel room.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I don’t think they are mainly targeting ”value oriented studio buyers”, but rather people that are staying at The Grand Floridian Resort, and just paid cash rates of $900/night with tax for a hotel room.

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They wouldn’t be converting a building into 200 studios exclusively if they didn’t think that would be a selling point.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

Where do you want to stay? We own at Riviera and recently did the 2-bedroom, and it was huge and fabulous! I really think you need to be thinking 1-bedrooms to start (years 1-4) and then 2-bedrooms realistically forevermore. VGF and RIV are gorgeous. You can't go wrong with either. Both offer close proximity to the parks. Riviera resale is doing just fine. The hysteria is definitely overblown on the resale restrictions. No one likes it, but it's our new reality until further notice, so go where you'll be happy. I, myself, prefer the layout of Riviera/CC over the O14 for the two-bedrooms. There's a good foyer for strollers and shoes and your bulky park gear. We tried a SS 2-bedroom and I hated it! So cramped and laid out weird. We felt on top of each other, versus the Riviera 2-bedroom we felt like we had separate apartments! We did a regular 2-bedroom, too, not a lockoff.

I would buy at least 300 points for either RR or GF though. Both have expensive point charts. Right now you can go off season, but in another decade the kids' school schedules will dictate more trips, and those school break weeks are killer.

 

[nuhusky123]

They wouldn’t be converting a building into 200 studios exclusively if they didn’t think that would be a selling point.

Yes studios will sell but to the other post dvc will be selling gfv to people who otherwise are paying a cash rack rate for a hotel room. As the studio resorts are hotel rooms it should make sense to then appeal to hotel room guests. 1+1=2

that said dvc will of course tout the 1 and 2 bed options as an upsell and I am positive will say nothing of the difficulty to book in the future. Expect this time next year all kinds of new dvc owners of gfv saying how hard it is to book 2 bed units and walkers are insane

thankfully I want gfv for the resort studios

 

[DL1WDW2]

I have just read thru this entire thread & then re-read your original post.
My first thought is the VGF2 will never accommodate your family.
The second thought is considering your life style and how familiar are you with the changes currently that actually describe A Disney Vacation . It’s just not the buy in…it’s knowing the commitment .
I have been a member since 2001 (200 points VWL) and 155 at BLT.
I never liked VWL/BRV especially after CC was added. Really used my points at BLT(LOVE) and Poly also love . Also love my stays at Riviera and also POP Century and Art of Animation Cars Suites.
Also live in Celebration nearby so I have huge Disney addiction.

Feel that DVC manipulates the points charts yearly and maintenance fees is a big factor. Hope you are considering this along with college tuition ….

With all my experience I wish I had known about purchasing a Guaranteed Week… because I use all my points to accommodate grandchildren for their school schedule…which means the
holidays , Expensive and walking window for 11 month advantage.
You will be considering the school holidays also for many years.

So just making a decision based on location, price, and amount of points is not the end of the decisions to factor.
I also have purchased direct and resale…direct is so much easier and I am pretty lazy . I also had a sleazy resale at the largest Resale Market experience ( describe it as buying from a used car salesman) Never again still insulted memory …

Anyway we are all nervous about future and direction of WDW .
If I had it all to do over again , I would def still want to own at BLT and wish I had known about Fixed Guaranteed Week because it locks in your date and your price chart will never change.
It is slightly more expensive to purchase and it has other flexible factors to allow you to occasionally change .
Admit I have just added to your burden and not what you wanted but it’s just something you might not know about since you are new to posting and new to DVC.
Lots of good luck and you are receiving lots of great advice To trust on this board.

Another thought…Sorry…
I am moving from studios to needing one bedroom ( teen age years ) so I found the info available on DVCResaleMarket much easier to visit with their visual point charts and Villa layout/diagram .
I was surprised to see that the one bedroom has a separate bedroom and a studio couch with a studio chair .
And don’t ever believe 2 people will be comfortable in studio fold out couch…haha

 

[DL1WDW2]

Another consideration for anybody trying to make this decision:

Currently other timeshares are moving into this area boldly taking on Disney at their weakest making future big mistake decisions.
Removing incentives to stay on property big time =big mistake…

Embassy Suites Timeshare has .opened their sales room and big billboards to inform their arrival, close to AK side of the world and new Margaritaville Resorts and Villas and bungalows and Target, etc…
plus Homewood Suites and Home2Suites (Hilton) and Marriotts Fairfield Inn ,Soringhill Suites, TownePlace Suites off Flamingo Crossing are actually across street from new College Program Campus just off the Western Way Entry for the MK …
and a new Residence Inn .
DVC is not your only choice and glad you are taking the time for this decision.

and eventually your children might discover they love Universal Studios more than Disney, etc…

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I don’t think they are mainly targeting ”value oriented studio buyers”, but rather people that are staying at The Grand Floridian Resort, and just paid cash rates of $900/night with tax for a hotel room.

View attachment 637811

DVC has very little history of targeting certain buyers beyond those visiting Disney on vacation. VGF last time around was just the same as BLT, AKV and SSR before it. There is of course always the chance to surprise but that would be a big change for them.

 

[davidl81]

Another consideration for anybody trying to make this decision:

Currently other timeshares are moving into this area boldly taking on Disney at their weakest making future big mistake decisions.
Removing incentives to stay on property big time =big mistake…
Embassy Suites Timeshare has opened their sales room and big billboards to inform their arrival close to AK side of the world and new Margaritaville Resorts and Villas and bungalows and Target, etc… plus Homewood Suites and Home2Suites (Hilton) and Marriotts Fairfield Inn ,Soringhill Suites, TownePlace Suites off Flamingo Crossing are actually across street from new College Program Campus just off the Western Way Entry for the MK …
DVC is not your only choice and glad you are taking the time for this decision.

and eventually your children might discover they love Universal Studios more than Disney, etc…

DVC will never compete cost wise with off site locations. By the same token it’s a totally different vacation experience on site versus off site, even if Disney has taken away some of the on site benefits.

 

[nuhusky123]

DVC will never compete cost wise with off site locations. By the same token it’s a totally different vacation experience on site versus off site, even if Disney has taken away some of the on site benefits.

I agree that being out of the Disney bubble is a very different vacation and that you pay a massive premium for that bubble. If saving money is the objective stay off property. If being in the bubble and everything that affords Then one must pay the price

dvc is a cheaper option by my math to be in the bubble vs paying rack rate Disney hotel rooms. But neither are cheap

 

[Paul Stupin]

I agree that being out of the Disney bubble is a very different vacation and that you pay a massive premium for that bubble. If saving money is the objective stay off property. If being in the bubble and everything that affords Then one must pay the price

dvc is a cheaper option by my math to be in the bubble vs paying rack rate Disney hotel rooms. But neither are cheap

Also, I don't believe the resale value of non Disney time shares is anywhere near as high as DVC. If they have little or no resale value, that would improve the math for DVC, no?

 

[nuhusky123]

Also, I don't believe the resale value of non Disney time shares is anywhere near as high as DVC. If they have little or no resale value, that would improve the math for DVC, no?

In Orlando no other timeshare holds value like dvc. If certainly helps with the math but I don’t count on resale rather it’s an awesome benefit if I ever have to sell

 

[RoseGold]

They wouldn’t be converting a building into 200 studios exclusively if they didn’t think that would be a selling point.

DVC marketed the heck out of the club level rooms, and that wasn't exactly the focus of the property. They will sell VGF as all purpose, with all of those rooms. I mean, it's not untrue. And they also will market it as a nice hotel room, like the one you just paid $800 for. Also not untrue. They can sell what they need to sell, because VGF will now have it all.

 

[nuhusky123]

I think gfv2 not including club level rooms was a massive miss by dvc. they could have really upsold that feature and it would fit in really well for the resort

premium amenity for their flagship resort. I’d bet many would even have forgiven dvc for not adding more 1+ bedrooms had they added club level

 

[RoseGold]

we hav gone over this time and again that We can’t use the price of a sold out resort as indicative of price for 2,000,000 new points added to the supply

Assuming the legalities are identical (which no one knows yet), those points are fungible with VGF2 when booking VGF. So yes, the price for an identical item, just sold in the open market, is the best data we have.

Comparing the WDW flagship to a resort next door to a moderate, or a resort that may never sell out, is much less useful data IMO.

You want more data, take the BLT/Poly resale points too. Monorail points are at least comparable. Plenty of those changing hands at all-time high pricing in the 170s-180s. So, yea, I think $240 is a no-brainer. And I think pricing will be $275. Maybe more if inflation stays in the news.

I'm more interested in a mathematical argument with data as to why DVC would price direct points so close to open market resale pricing, instead of holding the spread, like they have for years, with the exception of the Aulani firesale, and odd fluctuations in AKL.

 

[Sandisw]

Assuming the legalities are identical (which no one knows yet), those points are fungible with VGF2 when booking VGF. So yes, the price for an identical item, just sold in the open market, is the best data we have.

Comparing the WDW flagship to a resort next door to a moderate, or a resort that may never sell out, is much less useful data IMO.

You want more data, take the BLT/Poly resale points too. Monorail points are at least comparable. Plenty of those changing hands at all-time high pricing in the 170s-180s. So, yea, I think $240 is a no-brainer. And I think pricing will be $275. Maybe more if inflation stays in the news.

I'm more interested in a mathematical argument with data as to why DVC would price direct points so close to open market resale pricing, instead of holding the spread, like they have for years, with the exception of the Aulani firesale, and odd fluctuations in AKL.

I just don’t think DVD will base their pricing on resale market. Do you really think that if DVD prices VGF at $210, that resale will stay that high? I don’t

Same with the Poly and BLT. If DVD decided to change the sold out price by offering AUL type incentive, I’d bet we would see that go down too

People are just not going to buy VGF at those high prices when RIV is a perfect alternative choice and a great resort. Sure, you think it’s inferior but a lot of people do not and those buying into DVC are going to be considering the overall cost.

Guides are going to be selling both and pricing them close enough allows a guide to focus on how great buying DVC is and not having to push one resort over the other.

And, if there were that many people filling the Grand, they wouldn’t be taking one full building and converting it to DVC.

I do wish we’d get info soon!

 

[davidl81]

Assuming the legalities are identical (which no one knows yet), those points are fungible with VGF2 when booking VGF. So yes, the price for an identical item, just sold in the open market, is the best data we have.

Comparing the WDW flagship to a resort next door to a moderate, or a resort that may never sell out, is much less useful data IMO.

You want more data, take the BLT/Poly resale points too. Monorail points are at least comparable. Plenty of those changing hands at all-time high pricing in the 170s-180s. So, yea, I think $240 is a no-brainer. And I think pricing will be $275. Maybe more if inflation stays in the news.

I'm more interested in a mathematical argument with data as to why DVC would price direct points so close to open market resale pricing, instead of holding the spread, like they have for years, with the exception of the Aulani firesale, and odd fluctuations in AKL.

What if I told you that Grand Floridan points would open $20 cheaper than BLT points were being offered at the same time? Because when VGF 1st opened at $145 a point BLT was still in active sales at $165.

Heck VGC which is super exclusive came online at the exact same price as the active AKV in 2009 ($112 a point).
Best I can tell only BLT came on higher than an active resort. BLT came online at $112 a point when AKV was still active at $104 a point

 

[Paul Stupin]

DVC marketed the heck out of the club level rooms, and that wasn't exactly the focus of the property. They will sell VGF as all purpose, with all of those rooms. I mean, it's not untrue. And they also will market it as a nice hotel room, like the one you just paid $800 for. Also not untrue. They can sell what they need to sell, because VGF will now have it all.

Good points. Since the point charts for the one bedrooms where we like to stay are (I think) the highest on property, my hope is that a fairly large percentage of new buyers will go for the studios, so booking the one bedrooms at 11 months will be doable. I’m not sure the additional DVC building will suddenly create huge demand for WDW’s priciest accommodations. At least I hope not!

 

[DonMacGregor]

Good points. Since the point charts for the one bedrooms where we like to stay are (I think) the highest on property, my hope is that a fairly large percentage of new buyers will go for the studios, so booking the one bedrooms at 11 months will be doable. I’m not sure the additional DVC building will suddenly create huge demand for WDW’s priciest accommodations. At least I hope not!

I just don't see how this doesn't make those 1BR's at least somewhat more difficult to book. Yes, DVC likely feels there is stronger demand for "studio" units, as seems to be borne out by the addition of these 200 "resort studios". But, as you said yourself, your hope is that "a fairly large percentage" of the new buyers will gravitate to the studios, but not all of them.

If we assume, just for argument's sake, that they sell (or plan to sell), 2,000,000 points for what is being referred to around here as VGF2. If we're super generous and assume that, even with the current 150 point minimum, the average contract is 300 points (obviously 150 can't be the average if it's the minimum), then that creates nearly 6,700 new owners. If 90% of those new buyers (also a very generous percentage) prefer studios, that still leaves 10% interested in other villas. That's another almost 700 warm bodies vying for the existing VGF villas. Drop the average to 200 points and you're at 10,000 new owners.

Not a monstrous number, and obviously there won't be thousands of new owners showing up overnight, but even if you tweak the numbers to fit some other less or more conservative scenario, as you said, some number of those new owners aren't going to be buying solely to stay in studios, and that means that, even if the effect is minimal, larger villas in the existing VGF inventory will eventually and increasingly become harder to book at 11 months.

I would not want to be an existing owner at VGF.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I just don't see how this doesn't make those 1BR's at least somewhat more difficult to book. Yes, DVC likely feels there is stronger demand for "studio" units, as seems to be borne out by the addition of these 200 "resort studios". But, as you said yourself, your hope is that "a fairly large percentage" of the new buyers will gravitate to the studios, but not all of them.

If we assume, just for argument's sake, that they sell (or plan to sell), 2,000,000 points for what is being referred to around here as VGF2. If we're super generous and assume that, even with the current 150 point minimum, the average contract is 300 points (obviously 150 can't be the average if it's the minimum), then that creates nearly 6,700 new owners. If 90% of those new buyers (also a very generous percentage) prefer studios, that still leaves 10% interested in other villas. That's another almost 700 warm bodies vying for the existing VGF villas. Drop the average to 200 points and you're at 10,000 new owners.

Not a monstrous number, and obviously there won't be thousands of new owners showing up overnight, but even if you tweak the numbers to fit some other less or more conservative scenario, as you said, some number of those new owners aren't going to be buying solely to stay in studios, and that means that, even if the effect is minimal, larger villas in the existing VGF inventory will eventually and increasingly become harder to book at 11 months.

I would not want to be an existing owner at VGF.

The thing is, its a beautiful resort, and along with CCV, Riviera and Aulani, its where we want to stay. So, though I understand your reasoning, many of us quite enjoy being owners. And I'm not sure I agree with your gloom and doom. I would bet early booking at the 11 month mark for most times of year, particularly for the pricier lake view one bedrooms, won't be an issue. I think there's a chance, though, that booking at 7 months will be difficult. On the plus side, VGF2 provides an opportunity to buy points in greater supply and at, knock on wood, a more reasonable rate (which we'll all debate until the day pricing is announced).