Buy Riv direct now, or wait for VGF2? Help please !

[Jelly563]

Please realize that there are many people in this country with a BOATLOAD of cash, most of them have kids or grandkids that want to go to Disney. They are not on this message board and couldnt give a crap about how much points went for in the past. (Especially since there is a new found family time pandemic bond). They will hear that the flagship resort is selling points, they will know that the Grand is where they "fit in" and they will pay the $275 a point that Disney will ask without batting an eyelash. If anything, they will get just 250 points instead of 300. You can not let your heart get in the way of your head. We might WANT the points to be cheaper but there are many bigger fish swimming around in this ocean and Disney knows these people will just cut a check for whatever they want and keep moving.

 

[Sandisw]

Please realize that there are many people in this country with a BOATLOAD of cash, most of them have kids or grandkids that want to go to Disney. They are not on this message board and couldnt give a crap about how much points went for in the past. (Especially since there is a new found family time pandemic bond). They will hear that the flagship resort is selling points, they will know that the Grand is where they "fit in" and they will pay the $275 a point that Disney will ask without batting an eyelash. If anything, they will get just 250 points instead of 300. You can not let your heart get in the way of your head. We might WANT the points to be cheaper but there are many bigger fish swimming around in this ocean and Disney knows these people will just cut a check for whatever they want and keep moving.

I’d venture to guess many of those people don’t need to worry about owning a timeshare either.

When the original VGF went on sale it wasn't crazy out of the ball park then so not sure why it would be now.

Based on normal practices, and a unique situation that they are still in active sales for RIV, leads one to believe they will be closer in price…at least for the start.

Those of us predicting that could be wrong and we should know in a month or two once RIV and AUL prices go up to $207.

But trying to sell 2 million points in a market that is not doing great doesn’t seem like a really high price makes sense.

We shall see!

 

[nuhusky123]

Wish they would just put us out of our collective misery and announce a sale date and price

 

[Paul Stupin]

Please realize that there are many people in this country with a BOATLOAD of cash, most of them have kids or grandkids that want to go to Disney. They are not on this message board and couldnt give a crap about how much points went for in the past. (Especially since there is a new found family time pandemic bond). They will hear that the flagship resort is selling points, they will know that the Grand is where they "fit in" and they will pay the $275 a point that Disney will ask without batting an eyelash. If anything, they will get just 250 points instead of 300. You can not let your heart get in the way of your head. We might WANT the points to be cheaper but there are many bigger fish swimming around in this ocean and Disney knows these people will just cut a check for whatever they want and keep moving.

My opinion is that there would be almost zero demand at that price, especially for value oriented studio buyers. And, in the history of DVC, there has never been an enormous price disparity between new and existing dvc properties. Never. Who knows, maybe this will be the first time. I know your heart is telling you it will be. But my head is telling me otherwise.

 

[RoseGold]

Still thinking the price for VGF2 will be “sky high?” As you know, I’m on the other end of the spectrum, but at least our debate will be over in a few weeks. I’m thinking sales will start sometime in Feb. If it is lower than you anticipated, will you buy more points?

The crowd level to me in early December was a real shock to me. I’m definitely not in for more points, if VGF opens over 240, which I think is a no-brainer.

If APs don’t open back up, I am going to have to put some thought to selling my SSR. IMO, cutting APs (and the UK 21 day tickets) is a big deal long term to DVC.

 

[Paul Stupin]

The crowd level to me in early December was a real shock to me. I’m definitely not in for more points, if VGF opens over 240, which I think is a no-brainer.

If APs don’t open back up, I am going to have to put some thought to selling my SSR. IMO, cutting APs (and the UK 21 day tickets) is a big deal long term to DVC.

Opening over 240 is a no brainer? If it did, I don't think anyone at all would be in for more points. Well, kudos that you're sticking to your guns! We'll see in a few weeks.

 

[DougEMG]

If APs don’t open back up, I am going to have to put some thought to selling my SSR. IMO, cutting APs (and the UK 21 day tickets) is a big deal long term to DVC.

I agree. No AP means I would look at dumping my DVC as well. I'm not going to spend 3-4 weeks at WDW buying 10 days tickets at a time.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I agree. No AP means I would look at dumping my DVC as well. I'm not going to spend 3-4 weeks at WDW buying 10 days tickets at a time.

No AP will drive me crazy as well. I don’t think I’d sell, but I‘d really cut back our time in the parks.

 

[Sandisw]

Opening over 240 is a no brainer? If it did, I don't think anyone at all would be in for more points. Well, kudos that you're sticking to your guns! We'll see in a few weeks.

We won’t buy VGF if prices are that high. We will go with less expensive points at RIV..and hope to get the studios at 7 months for Dec trips!

But definitely won’t pay more than $215 to $220 a point for VGF.

 

[davidl81]

I love how we hear on this board that RIV is just as deluxe as VGF, then we hear that VGF2 is going to be $275 a point because it’s the flagship resort. All historical information shows that VGF2 will have the same base price as RIV, I mean this could be different, but anyone predicting it to be 20%+ higher than RIV is really going against historical data points.

 

[RoseGold]

All historical information shows that VGF2 will have the same base price as RIV, I mean this could be different, but anyone predicting it to be 20%+ higher than RIV is really going against historical data points.

Not all historical information. Here's some historical information. Disney was selling VGF for 255 months ago. And resale VGF is currently scraping 200 and sometimes exceeding 200.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Not all historical information. Here's some historical information. Disney was selling VGF for 255 months ago. And resale VGF is currently scraping 200 and sometimes exceeding 200.

As you know, you’re mixing apples with oranges, comparing the direct price for a sold out resort with scarce points meant to discourage buyers and direct them elsewhere to the price of an essentially new property for which they have millions of points to sell. Feels like our posts are just going in circles!

The historical data for new DVC properties does indeed point to a price in line or close to Riviera, give or take some incentives which might very well drive VGF2 pricing lower. The data is pretty clear and is backed up with decades of precedent. Re the resale pricing, it’s bound to adjust downward for larger point contracts at the very least.

I bought some direct VGF points last year and from that perspective am not thrilled about the potentially lower pricing! But I’d also like to add on direct with more points, so thats the positive side.

That said, if you’re right, doesn’t look like many people on these boards will buy, myself included. Potential buyers who don’t read these boards, in my opinion, could very well feel the same way. Buyers aren’t blindly naive when it comes to plunking down tens of thousands of dollars.

 

[nuhusky123]

Not all historical information. Here's some historical information. Disney was selling VGF for 255 months ago. And resale VGF is currently scraping 200 and sometimes exceeding 200.

Please stop using a sold out resort price, please stop it’s just wrong

we hav gone over this time and again that We can’t use the price of a sold out resort as indicative of price for 2,000,000 new points added to the supply

 

[ITGirl50]

As you know, you’re mixing apples with oranges, comparing the direct price for a sold out resort with scarce points meant to discourage buyers and direct them elsewhere to the price of an essentially new property for which they have millions of points to sell. Feels like our posts are just going in circles!

The historical data for new DVC properties does indeed point to a price in line or close to Riviera, give or take some incentives which might very well drive VGF2 pricing lower. The data is pretty clear and is backed up with decades of precedent. Re the resale pricing, it’s bound to adjust downward for larger point contracts at the very least.

I bought some direct VGF points last year and from that perspective am not thrilled about the potentially lower pricing! But I’d also like to add on direct with more points, so thats the positive side.

That said, if you’re right, doesn’t look like many people on these boards will buy, myself included. Potential buyers who don’t read these boards, in my opinion, could very well feel the same way. Buyers aren’t blindly naive when it comes to plunking down tens of thousands of dollars.

I also think the hotel room (not really a studio if they don’t have kitchenette) will keep many existing members from adding on. To tell people they can always book the larger units is disingenuous. There won’t be enough inventory to book the larger units because they aren’t adding more. As soon as I saw that, I was out. We are adding on with resale BLT instead. I have no desire to add on at a resort where I can’t even get a 1-bedroom at 11 month window.

 

[Paul Stupin]

8

I also think the hotel room (not really a studio if they don’t have kitchenette) will keep many existing members from adding on. To tell people they can always book the larger units is disingenuous. There won’t be enough inventory to book the larger units because they aren’t adding more. As soon as I saw that, I was out. We are adding on with resale BLT instead. I have no desire to add on at a resort where I can’t even get a 1-bedroom at 11 month window.

The one bedroom units will also still have prohibitively high point charts, not a plus for new buyers.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I also think the hotel room (not really a studio if they don’t have kitchenette) will keep many existing members from adding on. To tell people they can always book the larger units is disingenuous. There won’t be enough inventory to book the larger units because they aren’t adding more. As soon as I saw that, I was out. We are adding on with resale BLT instead. I have no desire to add on at a resort where I can’t even get a 1-bedroom at 11 month window.

I am not a fan of the hotel style rooms but some family might appreciate the ability to book connecting rooms so 2 rooms with lower point chart than two bedroom unit. This might push some to the one bedroom over two studios but two studios gives two bathrooms, the one bedroom gives the kitchen and laundry. One bedroom sleeps 5 but really it's 4 comfortably, 2 studios sleep 8 probably comfortably.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I am not a fan of the hotel style rooms but some family might appreciate the ability to book connecting rooms so 2 rooms with lower point chart than two bedroom unit. This might push some to the one bedroom over two studios but two studios gives two bathrooms, the one bedroom gives the kitchen and laundry. One bedroom sleeps 5 but really it's 4 comfortably, 2 studios sleep 8 probably comfortably.

It looks like these hotel studios are going to sleep 5 each just like the current VGF studios do. 2 queen beds and the single day bed. So 2 connecting studios might sleep 10 for a similar point requirement of a 1BR. Assuming someone is looking to really maximize sleeping arrangements.

 

[nuhusky123]

It looks like these hotel studios are going to sleep 5 each just like the current VGF studios do. 2 queen beds and the single day bed. So 2 connecting studios might sleep 10 for a similar point requirement of a 1BR. Assuming someone is looking to really maximize sleeping arrangements.

If anyone is planning ten people in two studios let me know, I’ll ask to be on other side of building from you

 

[Blondie58]

Tough to answer this question without knowing VGF2 pricing.

What we do know is that Riviera prices are going up to $207pp in February.

i would base your decision on which Resort you love the most. Riviera is close to Epcot. VGF is closer to MK and on the monorail loop. Both are beautiful resorts. Both are heavy on the points for a 2bedroom or grand Villa (for sleeping 6+).

the best bang for your buck (and advantageous point chart) for 2 and 3 bedroom villas is Old Key West.

Good Luck in your decision and Happy New Year!

Own at VGF. Have stayed there many times in two-bedroom and thoroughly enjoy. (Recent soft refurbishment @ VGF is very nice. Just got home from a 6 day stay.) Also have stayed at Riviera and liked very much. We like split stays with VGF for MK and EPCOT and Riviera for HS and AK. However, we recently visited Old Key West and absolutely love the resort and the size of the two bedroom villas. And they have been recently updated. Like you we have some decisions to make about additional points.

 

[Ssplashhmtn]

Please stop using a sold out resort price, please stop it’s just wrong

we hav gone over this time and again that We can’t use the price of a sold out resort as indicative of price for 2,000,000 new points added to the supply

I disagree. Please continue to have your OWN opinion of what Disney should or may do, and base it on whatever you want. Please never listen to someone on a discussion board that tells you to stop with your viewpoint. I’m enjoying seeing varying views expressed.