2% of points is not enough to hold back every type of room, every night of the year. They're also balancing both scheduled maintenance and unanticipated maintenance. Something like a water leak--while rare--can take multiple rooms out of service at once. Things like flooring replacement and drywall repairs should still happen between guests if a room's condition dictates a need.
Overbookings have occasionally happened due to computer errors or late changes to refurb schedules. But that's often a widespread thing where multiple members are impacted.
Anecdotally, isolated moves are quite rare. There are 5000-7000
DVC villas in the system, depending on how you count the lockoffs. And each room is turned over 2-3 times per week.
If even 1% of all members were being relocated, and just 1% of THOSE people actually came to the DIS to complain, there would still be multiple reports every week of someone being relocated.
That has nothing to do with having more reservations than rooms.
And it's a very speculative topic for discussion. Many members with small contracts bank and borrow to stay in larger rooms. DVC has done a pretty good job of adding a higher ratio of studios in recent years (Poly, VGF). The new
Disneyland Hotel DVC is about 80% studio.
We could probably argue that a resort like the Poly is out of balance with so many points invested in the bungalows. But members do a good job of taking whatever accommodation best suits their price and needs, even if they have to wait until 7 months to do it.
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