Box Office Discussion

[Goofy2015]

I figured to start a thread on box office discussions, mainly for Disney movies.

First thing, I think today will be the day that Finding Dory breaks into the top 5 in 2016 domestically in the box office. So, say goodbye to Batman v. Superman. After the weekend, I do not think it is to farfetched to think that Finding Dory will be #2 domestically.

So Disney will hold 4 of the Top 5 spots. That is very impressive. Doctor Strange, Moana, and Rogue One all have chances to shine on their own to at least make the top 10.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

Disappointed to see they are expecting BFG to do very poorly this weekend. I personally am really looking forward to this one

Dory should be number 1 in 2016 by Tuesday. By next weekend it might but to be the number one animated movie all time already. That might be a posh but it won't be much longer after that. Experts are predicting over 40 million this weekend. Next weekend will see its biggest drop and will likely be under 20 million but one can hope. Can dory get to 500 million? Everyday it seems like the chances increase but still it would be less than likely

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I don't know...don't be surprised if it crushes this weekend.

It made 15 mil on Tuesday...11 days after release...

Even for the summer that's pretty impressive.

BFG is not gonna do well...

They timed the release wrong...Disney is trying to crank too many movies out, too fast. Have 6 tent pole family movies come out in 6 months is hair too much.

 

[No.1000]

I hope The BFG does well...Roald Dahl, Steven Spielberg, and Disney....what's not to love?

 

[Goofy2015]

I would agree the BFG is being released at bad timing because it is having some cannibalism with Finding Dory and soon will have to compete with Secret Life of Pets, which I imagine being fairly successful. September or October would have been a better release for this movie. Although that is not the best of time of family movies to be released.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

I would agree the BFG is being released at bad timing because it is having some cannibalism with Finding Dory and soon will have to compete with Secret Life of Pets, which I imagine being fairly successful. September or October would have been a better release for this movie. Although that is not the best of time of family movies to be released.

I don't think the timing is what is the issue here. Personally I think the timing is fine. Dory is in it's third weekend, so their is plenty of opportunity for ticket sales for a new film, especially on a holiday weekend. If it had done well this weekend, then Secret life of pets would have seen a small hit in their ticket sales next weekend,but likely it would not effect them too much either. If both films were hits, then their is the market for both even with Dory -- Dory while still doing well is a far cry from where it was.

I don't know which film picked their date first - BFG or Secret Life of Pets, but I would bet BFG did, and the Secret Life of Pets would have preferred the holiday weekend. Even with a bad weekend, BFG will see a big increase on Monday, giving it a 4 day weekend box office which will lessen impact of a smaller box office next weekend. But it is definitely the case that BFG needed a four day holiday weekend more than any other of the two animated movies.

The reason the forecast is grim for BFG, from what I understand, is that the movie is not getting the buzz and internet searches that one would expect of a movie that would have a good opening weekend. Critics have said good things (best film by critics of new movies this weekend, but expected to do the worst of the 3 by predictions), and the 3 things you talk about - Disney, Speilberg and Dahl - should lead to good things, no matter the timing. But it just isn't looking that way.

I hope it surprises people. I believe Zootopia and Alice in Wonderland (the original live action not sequel) both out did experts predictions despite the buzz factor...but I could be wrong there. Regardless, they have been wrong before, but signs don't point that way.

 

[mikepizzo]

Bob Mondello's review of The BFG is pretty much what I expected when I heard the film was close to 2 hours. I'm sure it has great cinematography, but probably drags a bit.

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

As of Wednesday (June 29th) Disney has already made the 7th most for any studio in a given year in box office earnings. After this weekend they will move to 6th. I am pretty sure no other studio is in the top 100 yet for the year. This is still June for the studio...6 more months to go.

I posed this question before...but can Disney get to $3B this year. It seems like such a large number, but they keep making it seem less pie in the sky. As of Wednesday I have they are at $1.8267 billion. After this weekend they will be very close to $1.9B (if you count Monday, then they will be over $1.9B). That means they need $1.1B in the next 6 months. Very possible given what they still have left.

Finding Dory still has life -- anybody's guess where it will max out, but seems somewhere between $130M to $180M
BFG may not be a monster movie, but it should still bring in between $60M to $70M
Zootopia, Jungle Book, Alice and Captain America don't have much life left, but they will still likely add around $5M

Then you get

Pete's Dragon on August 12th - I think this will make more than BFG but less than the Jungle Book, Optimistically I think $200M to $300M
Queen of Katwee on September 23rd - I don't expect this to make any dent for Disney
Doctor Strange on November 4th - I think this will be one of the smallest Marvel movies based on box office, so somewhere in the range of $130M to $200M range
Moana on October 23rd - Disney is hoping this is their big one. I personally think it will make less than Zootopia, but more than Wreck it Ralph, so in the $200M to $300M range as well
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story on December 16th. They only get 2 weeks and most of a 3rd weekend for 2016, but this may be what puts it over the top. If you went with my low end numbers for each film (which I can't imagine they will all be on the low end) it would need 275 million in the first 16 days for Disney to break $3B. While this movie will not see the numbers of the Force Awakens, or anything close, as a point of comparison, here is the Disney movies that did make 275 million in the first 16 days:

Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 4 days
Marvel's The Avengers - 8 days
Avengers: Age of Ultron - 9 days
Iron Man 3 - 10 days
Captain America: Civil War - 10 days
Finding Dory - 10 days
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - 13 days
Toy Story 3 - 16 days

So if I was a betting man...I would say Disney will do it. After if they get to exactly $3B, that would be over 25% more than any other studio has ever made in a year.

Curious what others think the ceiling for Disney is this year. If you went with my high number in the range, and assumed Rogue One in its first 16 days made what Iron Man 3, Captain America and Pirates of the Caribbean averaged after 16 days, that would put Disney at approximately $3.4B - almost $1B more than any other studio has ever made in a year (37% more)...yeah I know that I was using my high end numbers for each and next to impossible to happen..but still shows how well Disney is doing this year.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Bfg struggled...

Dory crushed to an estimated $52 mil weekend after Monday.

Dory will fall to the secret life of pet's this weekend...but will still do well through the month and end upward of $350 domestic...maybe a billion total. That's toy story 3 range if I remember correctly.

 

[jbcheerchick93]

My family saw Finding Dory today and there were 2 theaters out of 12 showing FD, with show times around 1-2 hours apart. Our theater was about 3/4ths full.

Didn't even realize BFG was out this weekend, Moana had a great preview out, and Secret Life of Pets will probably do well. I can't see BFG doing well in theaters, due to the book being so outdated and the length of the movie.

 

[Planogirl]

BFG was poorly marketed IMO. We saw virtually no ads for it and even the few we saw weren't very descriptive.

 

[circus4u]

Finding Dory still in the top spot for third week.

"The film raked in roughly $42 million over the weekend, bringing in a grand total of $372 million domestically since its opening.
Dory's popularity seems to have pulled viewers from the only family-friendly film to open this weekend — "The BFG."

It's not often director Steven Spielberg lays an egg, but the Big Friendly Giant opened with a big, fat thud, good for only fourth place in this week's standings."

http://www.abc15.com/newsy/box-office-top-3-finding-dory-just-keeps-swimming-to-the-top-spot

 

[lockedoutlogic]

BFG was poorly marketed IMO. We saw virtually no ads for it and even the few we saw weren't very descriptive.

Studios pull/cancel the marketing as much as they can to save costs once the tea leaves are read

 

[ColoradoDreamin]

Finding Dory still in the top spot for third week.

"The film raked in roughly $42 million over the weekend, bringing in a grand total of $372 million domestically since its opening.
Dory's popularity seems to have pulled viewers from the only family-friendly film to open this weekend — "The BFG."

It's not often director Steven Spielberg lays an egg, but the Big Friendly Giant opened with a big, fat thud, good for only fourth place in this week's standings."

http://www.abc15.com/newsy/box-office-top-3-finding-dory-just-keeps-swimming-to-the-top-spot

Well to note BFG actually made more than what experts were predicting. They may have spent a lot of money to make it, but I seriously doubt they were expecting a major hit. Also to note, I saw a ton of previews this week for BFG. It just depends what you were watching.

Dory hit its predicted number almost spot on, and with BFG making slightly more it doesn't seem it actually pulled from it. IMO - while I am really looking forward to it, it never was going to be a big hit. If Disney thought it would they would have reconfigured its release date. Calling it a flop is a media thing. When you factor in domestic, international and DVD/blu ray as well as the contract they had with Spielberg (this was the last film in the contract) I doubt it will be a loss of money overall

 

[TwoMisfits]

Well to note BFG actually made more than what experts were predicting. They may have spent a lot of money to make it, but I seriously doubt they were expecting a major hit. Also to note, I saw a ton of previews this week for BFG. It just depends what you were watching.

Dory hit its predicted number almost spot on, and with BFG making slightly more it doesn't seem it actually pulled from it. IMO - while I am really looking forward to it, it never was going to be a big hit. If Disney thought it would they would have reconfigured its release date. Calling it a flop is a media thing. When you factor in domestic, international and DVD/blu ray as well as the contract they had with Spielberg (this was the last film in the contract) I doubt it will be a loss of money overall

No, BFG will be a huge money loser unless International saves it...It needs to make $450M worldwide (approx) to just break even...domestically, at this point, this movie will struggle to $60M b/c it will lose screens quickly this month (as Pets and Ice Age open)...I would bet it will be out of domestic theaters within 5 weeks...

So, it's 2 flops for the last 3, but Dory probably made enough to wipe both away. Pete's Dragon is also very unlikely to make what you predict...$3B is gonna be a rough number to reach...

BTW, this is the current projection for Pete's...
Pete’s Dragon Aug 12, 2016 Disney $33,000,000 OW $117,000,000 Total BO

 

[Goofy2015]

Yea, BFG majorly flopped. However, Legend of Tarzan and Purge: Election Year did what at least I expected. I am amazed at the success of Finding Dory. It is going to put up numbers past Toy Story 3 and possibly the largest domestic box office for animated movies. Get ready to see even more stuff from the Finding Nemo franchise in the parks.

I think $3B is still a possible number to reach. After this weekend, TWDC will be at 1.911B in the domestic box office. The remaining numbers are just in my opinion. I am guessing the following finishes for Finding Dory and BFG and the remaining Buena Vista distributed movies.

Finding Dory - $470MM (remaining difference of $90MM)
The BFG - $65MM (remaining difference of $43MM)
Pete's Dragon - $120MM
The Light Between the Ocean / The Queen of Katwe - $110MM (I know little about these movies, maybe others on here do, it is just a rough guess)
Doctor Strange - $170MM (most earned in 2016)
Moana - $320MM (80% earned in 2016, $260MM)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - $580MM (2/3 earned in 2016, $390MM)

IMO, my guess would be $3.094B, at this point.

 

[TwoMisfits]

Yea, BFG majorly flopped. However, Legend of Tarzan and Purge: Election Year did what at least I expected. I am amazed at the success of Finding Dory. It is going to put up numbers past Toy Story 3 and possibly the largest domestic box office for animated movies. Get ready to see even more stuff from the Finding Nemo franchise in the parks.

I think $3B is still a possible number to reach. After this weekend, TWDC will be at 1.911B in the domestic box office. The remaining numbers are just in my opinion. I am guessing the following finishes for Finding Dory and BFG and the remaining Buena Vista distributed movies.

Finding Dory - $470MM (remaining difference of $90MM)
The BFG - $65MM (remaining difference of $43MM)
Pete's Dragon - $120MM
The Light Between the Ocean / The Queen of Katwe - $110MM (I know little about these movies, maybe others on here do, it is just a rough guess)
Doctor Strange - $170MM (most earned in 2016)
Moana - $320MM (80% earned in 2016, $260MM)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - $580MM (2/3 earned in 2016, $390MM)

IMO, my guess would be $3.094B, at this point.

The Queen of Katwe is a limited release - unless it seriously breaks out, it won't make more than $10M. The Light Between Oceans is a Labor Day weekend release - that weekend is known for burying movies, so that movie will not likely make more than $30M. So, those 2 movies probably won't be more than $40M...and I think your Moana number might be too optimistic with Fantastic Beasts out...so $3B is a stretch right now - not impossible, but a stretch...

 

[Lesverts]

Queen of Katwe is an Oscar-bait film. With politics as they are it could get a lot of traction. As is The Light Between Oceans. Both have strong casts and on paper look good. But at most you could see 50 million, unless one really breaks out.

Moana looks to be a 200 million film. I cannot see it going much higher then Tangled.
Rogue One is now a troubled production, from a not so strong director. It won't have the event factor of The Force Awakens. 400 million total is probably gonna be its ballpark.

 

[Goofy2015]

The Queen of Katwe is a limited release - unless it seriously breaks out, it won't make more than $10M. The Light Between Oceans is a Labor Day weekend release - that weekend is known for burying movies, so that movie will not likely make more than $30M. So, those 2 movies probably won't be more than $40M...and I think your Moana number might be too optimistic with Fantastic Beasts out...so $3B is a stretch right now - not impossible, but a stretch...

Again, I know nothing about those two movies. With that information of a limited release, I would guess those two movies combined make at most $50MM, probably $40MM. So, my earlier estimate may lower to like $3.024B.

 

[soniam]

BFG was really poorly timed. We wanted to see it in 3D, but there weren't many times available out of about 5 different theaters. The times listed were weird for a kids film and just at inconvenient times too. The theaters were reserving the prime 3D spots for Tarzan and even Dory. The theaters also started selling tickets really late compared to what I have been seeing. It seems the same thing is happening with Secret Life of Pets concerning tickets. They are still not for sale at the majority of theaters in town, even through Fandango We ended up seeing BFG in 2D. It was very good. I know it was long, but it really didn't drag at all. It dragged less than Force Awakens, and I loved TFA. It could be a little scary for very little kids though. The cinematography was great, and the story is excellent. I hadn't read the book or seen the previous cartoon. DS had read the book, but he still loved the movie.

We will see Secret Life of Pets next weekend, and then Ghostbusters is the following weekend, with the new Star Trek the weekend following, I think. There are too many movies this summer