Book it. Buy it. BELIEVE it! - TR is started! link posted 8/11

Man... this TR has many twists and turns. DVC is in the mix now. Plus another cliffhanger?!?!?! :lmao :lmao::lmao:

Plus I don't think we even know one thing about your trip! :rotfl2::rotfl2: :rotfl2::rotfl2:
 
I suck at Math, even fuzzy Disney math, but it is good to know you identified a good RCI trade. The more that I look at the ones on the East coast there really are only a few that make sense. Many of them are much cheaper to just pay cash for.

Well it's actually not a RCI trade, I misspoke, it's actually the Intrawest at Whistler which can be impossibly hard to actually get and pay cash for. I tried to stay there for our summer trip, looking months early and couldn't get it. They are in the same lump group with RCI so for some reason I think of them as being RCI. The point exchange is a better deal than cash. Of course who knows how easy/hard exchanging would actually be but that's an area we've looked at buying at several times (though not necessarily the Intrawest which is the BOMB in terms of location as it was out of our price range) both from a time share and a full condo purchase. At any rate, it's an option if we did buy, we could see ourselves using. We've done VBRO twice up there at the same complex. One was great and one was ok but we do know what we like there.

So I hope you come back and finish the story soon. But :cool1: woo hoo :cool1: for sinus surgery and spread sheets.

I wish I could say :cool1: on the sinus surgery, I don't feel I've yet to see any real benefit and have a wicked cold at present. Things aren't worse and the headaches/drainage is a bit less but I still sneeze like a maniac daily. Supposedly it will take months before things really settle down up there so who knows.

Yes, we do own another timeshare. Gift from my parents - we just pay the MF, which is pretty inexpensive, so it's not a bad deal. We mostly use it in Orlando.

We'll see what happens on this trip. We'll have stayed onsite at BWV in November, then three nights at BC (not staying DVC but at a DVC resort), then moving offsite. I know I prefer onsite, we'll see what Tim thinks now that he's lived the good life. :rotfl:

I've stayed offsite 3x. I think the biggest challenge for us is that we've always felt we lost so much time going back that we would skip going back and just get to the parks late, and stay late. And then it just becomes a place to sleep where you aren't really using the pool or whatever is there. It will be interesting to see what happens if the big 2013 family trip comes together. We are pretty adamant about onsite but I think some will balk at the price and want to rent a house again. I'm not sure I want to try to herd everyone in any one direction but if we are all at different places, it may become very hard to hook up.

If you stay long enough and are at the right offsite location, then it probably can work out pretty well. Ours have seemed to just turn into a place to sleep, eat breakfast and make lunches! I think 1-2 times we ate back at the house, taco bar/spaghetti kind of night. But for us, that was pre DDP and we've been spoiled in that area.

I WISH I could be as organized as you and gather lots of info to make a decision. I'm impulsive. :rotfl:

Can't wait to see what you decided. popcorn::

Oh just because I gather lots of info doesn't mean I'm not plenty impulsive too

:rotfl:
 
Ok, I had NO idea that the "buy it" would be about DVC!! Wow - and now we have another cliff hanger!

:rotfl:

However, I am very familiar with the whole process of a certain trip being what made me really sit down and look at DVC! :rolleyes1 And I did a lot of similar calculations as you did. My most important scenario however was to compare it to staying at a moderate because booking for just one person that would be the most likeliest place to stay at for me I figured, even though I love the deludes! Mainly for the indoor hallways and the balconies.

I'm a huge indoor hallway fan, and an even bigger fan of balconies. Much as I like the moderates in general they feel so huge to me and with double beds at a lot of them it just doesn't work for us. It's the balcony that makes all the difference for us, we wouldn't spend much time in our room without it. something about 4-6 people in one room without another escape route can feel VERY crowded! :rotfl:

If it were just me though, I would probably be comparing it the same way you did.

Man... this TR has many twists and turns. DVC is in the mix now. Plus another cliffhanger?!?!?! :lmao :lmao::lmao:

:laughing: I thought it might be more fun to start at the beginning...then after. More interesting at any rate!

Plus I don't think we even know one thing about your trip! :rotfl2::rotfl2: :rotfl2::rotfl2:

You know as much about it as I did at this point in the developments. :rotfl:
 
We live 10 minutes from Washington's "wine" country so have quite few places like that around here. According to Jeff there is some kind of wine bar or tasting near the museum so we will likely do that. I'm just going where I'm told for the most part on this trip although I've done a little restaurant research.



What is fun to see is the different reasons it can make sense for people, I don't think there is one right or wrong reason to do it or not. A lot of folks are pretty down on purchasing direct as resale is so much less. But if you need and want some of those extra benefits, then it's the right thing for you, you know? Kind of like the argument of using points for cruises, or not. Your points, do what you want with them!

I know you'll have a great time, and you guys have a knack for finding good spots so it will be fun to see what you do!

Thank you! I get so tired fo people criticizing others for their decisions - 'wasting' points on cruises and buying direct vs. resale. Each person has reasons that make sense to them - it's your vacation and your points. Some people insist on having a kitchen because they have to cook and get satisfaction out of what they save on meals. Some people want to BE on vacation and not cook at all. I liked dealing with DVC because we had our own guide who is our contact person, I feel like our contract is protected, and the extra perks that are now not given to resale make it worth the difference to me.
 

I know you'll have a great time, and you guys have a knack for finding good spots so it will be fun to see what you do!


thanks! we are looking forward to it

Thank you! I get so tired fo people criticizing others for their decisions - 'wasting' points on cruises and buying direct vs. resale. Each person has reasons that make sense to them - it's your vacation and your points. Some people insist on having a kitchen because they have to cook and get satisfaction out of what they save on meals. Some people want to BE on vacation and not cook at all. I liked dealing with DVC because we had our own guide who is our contact person, I feel like our contract is protected, and the extra perks that are now not given to resale make it worth the difference to me.

Agreed. I think it's one thing if people are asking "hey, here are my options, what would you do?" versus someone jumping in when they haven't been asked for their opinion and judging/criticizing that person's choice.

Of course, that's doesn't apply to just how people use their points!
 
I've never really crunched the DVC numbers as at the moment we aren't in a position to buy but in the future i'd like to look into it as it means we have to go back!
 
Well, I didn't see THAT one coming! For some reason I think I believed you already had some DVC points. Don't know why.
I'd love to see your spreadsheets! Wish I know how to use them better. I'm a list person myself.

Waiting not-so-patiently to hear how this turns out. popcorn::
 
I am so :confused3:confused3:confused3:confused3

I think it best you just let me know when you have made a decision. :lmao::lmao:

Seriously, we thought of DVC a couple of times, but something always came up (the last being our car being totalled). But with us moving to Florida, hopefully, in 2015, we don't really think we'll need it.
 
I've never really crunched the DVC numbers as at the moment we aren't in a position to buy but in the future i'd like to look into it as it means we have to go back!

Oh we'll go back no matter what but yes, that could force the issue I suppose!

Cynthia...a cliffhanger!!! I am going to send you a PM about something I saw last week!!! ;)

There may be more cliffhangers coming. Just sayin'


Well, I didn't see THAT one coming! For some reason I think I believed you already had some DVC points. Don't know why.

Maybe because I did stay DVC with Mary Ellen last year? And will be next fall as well for that matter.

I'd love to see your spreadsheets! Wish I know how to use them better. I'm a list person myself.

Waiting not-so-patiently to hear how this turns out. popcorn::

I'd be lost without my spreadsheets! Although I am finding some nifty apps that are replacing some, or at least supplement them. I use them for everything under the sun, it's a bit of a disease. Then again they don't always make sense to anyone else since I overthink things so probably best not to share! :rotfl:

I am a compulsive list maker too though. :rotfl:

I am so :confused3:confused3:confused3:confused3

I think it best you just let me know when you have made a decision. :lmao::lmao:

:rotfl: I am often confused myself! Luckily Jeff gets the way I think so that helps quite a bit as otherwise, I over explain. Then again, so can he!

Seriously, we thought of DVC a couple of times, but something always came up (the last being our car being totalled). But with us moving to Florida, hopefully, in 2015, we don't really think we'll need it.

UGH on the car, that was horrid timing! I don't ever see us moving to FL, or probably anywhere DVC is but I suppose you never know. Right now Jeff's dream is somewhere in the San Juans with a dock for the seaplane. :rotfl: Hawaii is probably more likely than FL for somewhere warm though.

2015 isn't very far away!
 
Here’s what I looked at.

1. The cost of a typical vacation, assuming we are either renting a villa or booking 2 deluxe rooms, or a deluxe that sleeps 5.

This was an obscene amount of money at rack rate and really depressed me when I looked at it. LOL! Then again, we’ve never paid rack rate. The renting in this scenario was CRO rack rate, not renting points.


2. Same as the above but assuming a 25% PIN
3. Same as above but also looking at 30, 35 and 40% PIN codes (our last big trip was a 40% beauty).

As you might imagine, the cost came down if a PIN was involved. I used to get a ridiculous amount of PIN codes. In fact, the last one I used was basically good for something crazy like a 7 month period with very few blackout dates. I am not sure I’ve gotten a single WDW one since. I do receive DLR ones on a fairly regular basis though, even though we haven’t been there in almost 2 years now as well. Go figure.

4. The “true” cost of any points I’d buy. This would be total points per year, x years of points, divided by the price plus the annual per point dues fees added back in. This is how much I’d actually be paying, per point, for the lifetime of my contract. Granted, with dues the number will creep up slightly, year to year due to dues increases. This varied, depending on how many points, and which resort we were looking at.

5. The rental value of points (assuming $10 per point).

I then compared the costs of scenarios 1-3 to what the same would be in true cost and rental value. I also did it specifically, for what we were considering for THIS trip.

The question would be, what would this look like, in a direct purchase scenario? I have an annual expenditure amount that has been semi consistent for our bigger trips. If I assumed I’d be spending that money regardless either at rack rate or some kind of discount (which is a very safe assumption for us based on our history, recent and otherwise), would there be savings, and if so, how much?

In my scenario, specific to this particular trip and the various options I was considering…looking at the true cost of my points as described above DVC = a 53% discount off of rack rate. There were scenarios where it was more and some where it could be less all depending on the choices I made. That’s the thing that became clear…the benefit really isn’t equal for all rooms and all seasons and all resorts. Not rocket science of course. For example, weekends can be not nearly the savings that weekdays are, one bedrooms not the savings a studio is. I think most folks that have been around the boards a bit are aware of that and certainly all of the owners are. I’d known that when we started considering this but it did help to have some concrete examples to work with. #5 was important simply to understand the value of what I was buying, should I have the need to rent it out at some point, if for whatever reason I couldn’t use my points.

How long would it really be before the investment paid for itself and my “true” cost then became just my maintenance fees? That of course makes the savings go WAY up. Models showed anything from 3-4 trips to 10 trips or 10+ years…what did our scenario look like if I really modeled it out????

In our scenario, which was comparing apples to apples (i.e. deluxe or villa to DVC) it pays off much more quickly than someone who would otherwise be staying at a value or a mod. Honestly, I’m not sure even in my fuzzy Disney math world I could make a value model pencil at all as it’s apple to…grapes maybe. Not oranges. And I know lots of people buy DVC to move “up” from Values and Mod’s and it is far harder to make a business case in that scenario, especially direct. However, that hasn’t been our travel habit. In that respect I guess I am their target market. LOL!

There are a couple of different ways to look at this.

1. Conservative view. Look at how much was saved off of rack rate per vacation. Those savings is what is paying off the investment. In this scenario it REALLY varied, depending on how I used those points. Did I blow them all for larger rooms and fewer nights or get a ton of nights in a studio? Depending on how I played this out it looked like 4-5 trips.

2. Fuzzy Disney Math view. Look at the value of the trip at rack rate or a medium sized PIN code as what is paying off the investment. Looking at it this way really assumes you aren’t saving anything initially, but rather prepaying for vacations. In that scenario we were looking at 2-3 trips.


If I was going to spend the same amount of $$ annually anyway, was savings even truly a factor or would this just be prepaying what I'd spend anyway?

See point 2 above

What was the goal? Saving or access?

For us? Access. Access to the villas. Access to laundry in the room and kitchens. Access to certain locations at certain times of year. The reality is that we’d be prepaying to start and saving, later. We’d be staying at condo’s or deluxes either way. DVC could give us access to on site “condo’s” which we wouldn’t have otherwise as even with a 45% PIN, the villa prices via CRO are insane. If we saved at the same time? Bonus. We would save. Not a ton over a killer PIN to start but after 3 trips? Not to mention, you can’t count on those darn PIN codes. Or even public deals. Yes, you can predict that there may be a good chance of something and if you do have an AP, then your chances are higher I’d imagine at least in terms of access to some kind of discount. Once that initial investment was realized? In one scenario alone it then looked like 80% off of rack rate. Difference between direct and resale once the investment is paid off? None. Dues are dues. Difference in benefits? Important to some and not at all to others. It was important to us. Could they change it (the current direct purchase “perks”)? Yes. Did it hedge bets? Maybe. Did it feel more “secure”? Yes. And that is a purely emotional response, not a pragmatic financial one.


I liken it to the iphone.

I just got one.


Did I need it?

No.

Did my old phone work?

Yes (well sort of…as a phone for sure, all the other stuff…not so much)

Was there a cheaper option that might have been almost as good?

Most certainly.

Did I consider anything else, despite all the horrible press right now?

No.

Does that make it ok?

Maybe, maybe not.

Do I really care?

Probably not as much as I should!

Do I love it?

Yes!

Is there stuff I actually liked better on my old phone and might miss a little?

Yes.

Did that change my mind?

No.


Did I mention I love spreadsheets?

The reality is, you can make a spreadsheet say almost anything you want it to, it’s all about how you look at the numbers. For us, though we’d looked at it seriously in the past, this was the first time that the numbers really told a tale that seemed to make a lot of sense for what our personal vacation goals and needs were. Then again, when you go into something wanting it to make sense…Fuzzy Disney math can take over when you least expect it. And that's my disclaimer for bookeeper Heidi! :rotfl:

Ok. This makes sense. At least to me. remember, I'm in bed, post sinus surgery with spreadsheets and a laptop. I can probably make anything make sense if I play around with the numbers long enough. :lmao:

What next? How many points and where? And how important is use year anyway?

Slushie credit quiz #1! PM me your answers. Prizes awarded in the form of Slushie Credits!

1. How did I get Jeff on board with this?
2. Where did we buy?
3. Why?
4. How many points?
5. How did we figure out how many points?

Bonus questions

6. What use year did I pick?
7. Why?


 
I recently enjoyed your Alaska TR, and I'm really liking this pre-TR, too! As "fuzzy" as it may be, the breakdown and thought process about DVC is really helpful. We just recently started considering it, but we don't have a solid "vacation history" to compare to. We've skipped vacations the last few years in order to complete our family via 2 adoptions, and having kids now has mixed up our pre-kids travel habits. I'm excited to see what/where you bought!
 
Slushie credit quiz #1! PM me your answers. Prizes awarded in the form of Slushie Credits!

1. How did I get Jeff on board with this?
2. Where did we buy?
3. Why?
4. How many points?
5. How did we figure out how many points?

Bonus questions

6. What use year did I pick?
7. Why?



1. sex

I know the answer to number 2 but all the other questions are too overwhelming for me, so I guess I will have to forgo my slushie credits. :rotfl: Good luck to whoever knows the answers to these questions. I just want to hear about the rest of the trip. Get on with it! popcorn::
 












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