Book it. Buy it. BELIEVE it! - TR is started! link posted 8/11

[eandesmom]

Happy Belated Birthday!

thanks Amy!

Anxious to hear how you plans pan out!

It's been interesting to say the least.

 

[eandesmom]

I’m not sure what it is but invariably, every January, I get the trip planning bug. In a BIG BIG way. And for the last 3 years, it’s been Disney related.

Jan 2009

Found the DIS boards, right before a planned Feb 2009 President’s week trip to the FW Cabins!

Jan 2010

Worked on our grand gathering trip. Granted, that one was already in the works but it took off, planning wise in Jan/Feb.

Planned a spring break trip to DCA!

Jan 2011

Booked the DCL Alaska cruise

Which brings us to January of 2012! Now, as some of you know, I had sinus surgery on January 4th. That meant 5 days of basically doing nothing and LOTS of time to think. And surf. And make spreadsheets. I love making spreadsheets! On day 3 of recovery (days 1 and 2 being somewhat “lost” days) I recalled that I’d gotten an email in December. Something about a price increase coming soon and about the potential to save before a certain date.



Save on what?

(For those of you who may not know, there was a recent logo change for DVC)

We’ve looked at it off and on over the past few years and have come close a few times, most notably last Jan. It came down to the Alaska cruise or DVC (couldn’t afford both in the same year) and well, clearly the cruise won. As I laid there in my drugged up glory I recalled that I’d emailed the guide when I’d received the email but had never heard back. Which was odd, I’d always had good response before. I then took a closer look at the email and realized it was a different guide. Still, I called the one I’d been speaking with last year, only to find out she was no longer there, or at least that number didn’t work. So I emailed the guide that had sent me the email, to get more info.

Now, before I go any further I know many of you own and probably most of you did resale. I realize there are considerable savings to be had via resale. However, being way over here in WA there is something a little outside my comfort zone with the restrictions that have been added to resale, at least for an initial contract. Especially given that there is a local RCI trade that we would likely use more than once over the years as it’s a fair trade for the points, conceivably every other year really if we wanted to…that’s how much we like it and might use it. We have no interest in owning RCI, are incredibly flexible with dates in that scenario and it is likely we'd use it at some point. Financially, that may not be entirely logical but as we know, these things involve more than money, they involve emotion. Emotionally, for an initial contract, I wasn’t really up for the roller coaster resale purchasing can be, waiting through ROFR and having it take several months before you actually have your points IF you pass ROFR. Conceivably I could start the process in Jan and not actually own anything until March or April at the earliest and more likely than not, later than that. Which didn't give me a whole lot of comfort if I wanted to book something before it was unavailable, as it was I was looking at this...as the 7 month window opened. As a result we are always looking at the options for direct and thinking, thinking, thinking.

I was THIS close to buying Aulani last year.

Instead, Jeff and I ran away there for 5 nights but to a different island, probably our last “date” cool trip like that for a bit, now that college tuition has stated! Again, not the first choice of most but for us, here, with family there, a very good choice in many ways as every 3 years there, also very possible! Ultimately, maybe not the best initial contract choice though as we’d have no 11 month booking advantage anywhere. Practically speaking it seemed to make more sense to get an initial contract elsewhere so I could do a smaller Aulani one at some point, I couldn't see us wanting a whole week there anyways as we love the other islands too. I went back and forth and back and forth and honestly, just couldn’t decide if we should bite. We were considering a President’s week 2012 trip there and if so, it would have made sense but then…it really looked like the giant family trip would be December 2012 (now postponed to 2013). With that up in the air, I didn’t have an immediate need for points so…put it away. Mentally. The last time I’d looked at pricing, seriously, was probably last April, just before my girls trip. And nothing jumped out at me, I didn’t even take a tour while there but at least finally DID stay DVC, in a BCV Studio. Which I loved! I didn’t even check it out on the Alaska cruise, the time just wasn’t right. So…I was curious what the deals were.

Why now? Well…booking at Vero for one. Having a Villa for the 2013 family trip, another. As some of you may also recall, we had an “interesting” laundry situation on our last WDW trip, with clothes actually being stolen out of our pop up hamper. Combine all that with a family of 5-6 that doesn’t fit in a normal room, the desire for laundry IN the room as well as a kitchen and DVC has always been a no brainer. Even in a studio scenario as a family of 4, the idea of housekeeping not being in my room every day , free laundry and an expanded kitchenette...was appealing over paying cash at a deluxe, PIN or no PIN. Which doesn’t mean it made financial sense before, just that it was probably a good fit for us, if and when it did. Would now be the time? I didn’t know, I honestly hadn’t been tracking pricing at all.

She got back to me right away. Prices were going up at 3 resorts. Things HAD changed in a year. And interestingly enough, in a way that worked in our favor. The minimum’s were lower. With where we live, though we’ve got a lot in recent years, I don’t know how that will last. I can see points being used quite heavily for a bit but really kind of wanted to test the waters before committing myself to a large annual dues amount.

So I crunched some numbers.

Everyone looks at this differently so it’s kind of fascinating.

Here’s what I looked at.

1. The cost of a typical vacation, assuming we are either renting a villa or booking 2 deluxe rooms, or a deluxe that sleeps 5.
2. Same as the above but assuming a 25% PIN
3. Same as above but also looking at 30, 35 and 40% PIN codes (our last big trip was a 40% beauty).
4. The “true” cost of any points I’d buy. This would be total points per year, x years of points, divided by the price plus the annual per point dues fees added back in. This is how much I’d actually be paying, per point, for the lifetime of my contract. Granted, with dues the number will creep up slightly, year to year due to dues increases,
5. The rental value of points (assuming $10 per point).

I then compared the costs of scenarios 1-3 to what the same would be in true cost and rental value. I also did it specifically, for what we were considering for THIS trip.

The question would be, what would this look like, in a direct purchase scenario? I have an annual expenditure amount that has been semi consistent for our bigger trips. If I assumed I’d be spending that money regardless either at rack rate or some kind of discount (which is a very safe assumption for us based on our history, recent and otherwise), would there be savings, and if so, how much?

How long would it really be before the investment paid for itself and my “true” cost then became just my maintenance fees? That of course makes the savings go WAY up. Models showed anything from 3-4 trips to 10+ years…what did our scenario look like if I really modeled it out????

If I was going to spend the same amount of $$ annually anyway, was savings even truly a factor or would this just be prepaying what I'd spend anyway?

What was the goal? Saving or access?

Did I mention I love spreadsheets?

 

[MRYPPNS]

That was a mean cliff hanger for a bookkeeper!!!!

 

[eandesmom]

That was a mean cliff hanger for a bookkeeper!!!!

 

[tinacaplan]

So, I'm interested in how this all plays out. We won't be in a position to take on a regular payment like DVC for quite some time, so its pretty much a non-starter for us, but it absolutely seems to make sense, especially if you have a bigger family. Anyway, I love reading about all of your thinking on this one.

 

[eandesmom]

So, I'm interested in how this all plays out. We won't be in a position to take on a regular payment like DVC for quite some time, so its pretty much a non-starter for us, but it absolutely seems to make sense, especially if you have a bigger family. Anyway, I love reading about all of your thinking on this one.

Well when your reality is if you added up what you spent on the last 4 trips just on rooms alone, you could have a nice chunk of points it bears thinking about if nothing else.

I will say that my scenarios did not assume financing so the only regular payment beyond the investment under consideration was maintenance fees.

 

[tinacaplan]

Well when your reality is if you added up what you spent on the last 4 trips just on rooms alone, you could have a nice chunk of points it bears thinking about if nothing else.

I will say that my scenarios did not assume financing so the only regular payment beyond the investment under consideration was maintenance fees.

Even the maintence fees would be more than I'm up for right now. I like the idea that I can stop whenever I want (gosh, I sound like I belong in a twelve step program! ). That said, I'm sure we'll look at in a few years. I'm happy for you that it appears to be working out for you.

 

[eandesmom]

I like the idea that I can stop whenever I want (gosh, I sound like I belong in a twelve step program! ).

that is SO funny! Unfortunately step one would probably be leaving the DIS as you are surrounded by enablers!

That said, I'm sure we'll look at in a few years. I'm happy for you that it appears to be working out for you.

Well I was looking to see if it would work. From a comfort and access level standpoint being attractive, and from a financial aspect making sense are 2 totally different things!

 

[glennbo123]

Yep, being able to fit a family of 5 in a one-bedroom....having laundry in the room....and a kitchen (less money spent on restaurants), are all big considerations! It'd be a much easier decision if they didn't keep coming out with those darned pin codes!

 

[eandesmom]

Yep, being able to fit a family of 5 in a one-bedroom....having laundry in the room....and a kitchen (less money spent on restaurants), are all big considerations! It'd be a much easier decision if they didn't keep coming out with those darned pin codes!

Absolutely! Although for me, they've dried up. I used to get them constantly, as did Jeff. I think I've gotten ONE in the past 18 months for WDW. Probably 4 for DL though.

Not that they would help with Vero and of course only a few of the 1 bedrooms fit 5. Funny thing is, it is just now that I can even look at a 1 bedroom which really does change how you look at things.

 

[DisMomAmy]

Please don't leave us hanging for too long!

We've considered DVC but so far decided not to buy - anxious to hear what you decided!!

 

[eandesmom]

Please don't leave us hanging for too long!

We've considered DVC but so far decided not to buy - anxious to hear what you decided!!

Sorry!

If memory serves, you have a different time share already though, right? That would make it really hard to consider if you had something already.

The funny part is Jeff's dad keeps trying to offload a couple on us, gift the title and we pay the MF. Two that are locked in to weeks that just don't work for us and have proven hard more often than not for them to trade. One is a great spot (Heavenly) but we couldn't go every year and we could pretty much never go during the week they technically own. The one we WOULD take...isn't being offered (Maui). The other one holds no appeal (Palm Springs) though it is lovely, it's just not us at all. So it's interesting to see. When you consider buying these things you do consider handing them down. What if your kids don't want them?


They do seem to use them every year though despite their complaints so I don't feel "all" that bad about it.

 

[Poolrat]

WOW!


I went through the same kind of spreadsheet and calculations before even looking at DVC.

I will say my primary motivation was almost forcing myself to take a vacation. Withthe kids grown and moving on to what I call 'chapter 3' of my life, I know I have the tendancy to work too much, DVC would actually force me to plan a vactaion.

Believe it or not some of my cons were the loss of daily housekeeping and the loss of using pin codes to book.

After hearing your housekeeping story though I am OK with no housekeeping. I can find clean towels somewhere.

I found the allure of segmenting and adding DDP to certain segments a pro - then they discontinued it.




Looking forward to hearing how this gets 'built'.

 

[MAGICFOR2]

I have been to one in the Beaverton area (might actually be in Beaverton) but it was basically in a strip mall. It was good pub food though.



Sounds good. Sometimes places like a wine bar aren't great for the kids but it varies. We are at some place Jeff found but it supposedly has great reviews. When I was a kid, we stayed at the Sand Piper and I dreamed of the Inn at Spanish Head. I have to just look at the Inn as an adult to see if it really is still impressive..at all. If we were there for any length of time we'd do VBRO and I'm sure will, one summer. Then again I always say that and we end up elsewhere!







That's our only coast day, we will do one night in McMinnville for the museum, and then one up in Ocean Shores. Fast and furious planes, waterslide and ocean...Oh and of COURSE a tour at Tillamook. Though I need to see if their website is working, wasn't last time I checked.

I didn't hear back, but in looking, I think it was Wine 101. It was pretty casual, and there were a few tables away from the bar itself, but the boys might be a little bored. I'm sure you can try some nice wines at alot of venues there - it is getting to be Oregon's "thing." Have a wonderful time! I've always heard good things about Spanish Head, too - but I've never been.

 

[MAGICFOR2]

I'm interested in your analysis, too. I am not a numbers person, so we didn't really give it the same type of consideration. For us, it was the fact that our room would always be there when we wanted it, regardless of the rack rates, and the choices it would afford us. We are looking forward to purchasing a
2nd package so we can leave one to each son, or allow more use for the boys as they are raising their families. I guess the cost of dues does factor in, but we still couldn't stay deluxe for the price of dues so it made sense to us - that's all the math I can do!

 

[MEK]

I suck at Math, even fuzzy Disney math, but it is good to know you identified a good RCI trade. The more that I look at the ones on the East coast there really are only a few that make sense. Many of them are much cheaper to just pay cash for.

So I hope you come back and finish the story soon. But woo hoo for sinus surgery and spread sheets.

 

[DisMomAmy]

Sorry!

If memory serves, you have a different time share already though, right? That would make it really hard to consider if you had something already.

The funny part is Jeff's dad keeps trying to offload a couple on us, gift the title and we pay the MF. Two that are locked in to weeks that just don't work for us and have proven hard more often than not for them to trade. One is a great spot (Heavenly) but we couldn't go every year and we could pretty much never go during the week they technically own. The one we WOULD take...isn't being offered (Maui). The other one holds no appeal (Palm Springs) though it is lovely, it's just not us at all. So it's interesting to see. When you consider buying these things you do consider handing them down. What if your kids don't want them?


They do seem to use them every year though despite their complaints so I don't feel "all" that bad about it.

Yes, we do own another timeshare. Gift from my parents - we just pay the MF, which is pretty inexpensive, so it's not a bad deal. We mostly use it in Orlando.

We'll see what happens on this trip. We'll have stayed onsite at BWV in November, then three nights at BC (not staying DVC but at a DVC resort), then moving offsite. I know I prefer onsite, we'll see what Tim thinks now that he's lived the good life.

 

[Native NYer]

I WISH I could be as organized as you and gather lots of info to make a decision. I'm impulsive.

Can't wait to see what you decided.

 

[Flossbolna]

Ok, I had NO idea that the "buy it" would be about DVC!! Wow - and now we have another cliff hanger!

However, I am very familiar with the whole process of a certain trip being what made me really sit down and look at DVC! And I did a lot of similar calculations as you did. My most important scenario however was to compare it to staying at a moderate because booking for just one person that would be the most likeliest place to stay at for me I figured, even though I love the deludes! Mainly for the indoor hallways and the balconies.

 

[eandesmom]

WOW!


I went through the same kind of spreadsheet and calculations before even looking at DVC.

I had a feeling I wasn't the only one

I will say my primary motivation was almost forcing myself to take a vacation. Withthe kids grown and moving on to what I call 'chapter 3' of my life, I know I have the tendancy to work too much, DVC would actually force me to plan a vactaion.

what a great reason to do it!

Believe it or not some of my cons were the loss of daily housekeeping and the loss of using pin codes to book.

After hearing your housekeeping story though I am OK with no housekeeping. I can find clean towels somewhere.

I also had my laptop stolen out of a room at a Westin so I actually prefer no one in the room. I do like it being clean, don't get me wrong but honestly debated bringing that darn hamper on the cruise after what happened. Sad to be paranoid about having your dirty laundry somewhere that keeps a room cleaner. ITA on the potential loss of the pin codes as I've had great luck with those in the past. For whatever reason though they seem to have dried up for me, apparently CRO only thinks I should go to DL!

I found the allure of segmenting and adding DDP to certain segments a pro - then they discontinued it.

Looking forward to hearing how this gets 'built'.

I loved that! We did it on our girls trip. Granted, there were issues with it working right, going from no credits to double credits but conceptually it was just lovely! I think they just couldn't manage it technically but what a great perk if it was still going on!

I didn't hear back, but in looking, I think it was Wine 101. It was pretty casual, and there were a few tables away from the bar itself, but the boys might be a little bored. I'm sure you can try some nice wines at alot of venues there - it is getting to be Oregon's "thing." Have a wonderful time! I've always heard good things about Spanish Head, too - but I've never been.

We live 10 minutes from Washington's "wine" country so have quite few places like that around here. According to Jeff there is some kind of wine bar or tasting near the museum so we will likely do that. I'm just going where I'm told for the most part on this trip although I've done a little restaurant research.

I'm interested in your analysis, too. I am not a numbers person, so we didn't really give it the same type of consideration. For us, it was the fact that our room would always be there when we wanted it, regardless of the rack rates, and the choices it would afford us. We are looking forward to purchasing a
2nd package so we can leave one to each son, or allow more use for the boys as they are raising their families. I guess the cost of dues does factor in, but we still couldn't stay deluxe for the price of dues so it made sense to us - that's all the math I can do!

What is fun to see is the different reasons it can make sense for people, I don't think there is one right or wrong reason to do it or not. A lot of folks are pretty down on purchasing direct as resale is so much less. But if you need and want some of those extra benefits, then it's the right thing for you, you know? Kind of like the argument of using points for cruises, or not. Your points, do what you want with them!