Boardwalk 2042

[dannyd88mph]

Recently purchased 200 resale at BW which I intend to use through 2042. Observation I have is that it seems eventually the price has to crash- right now there are 19 years left, but as that number decreases the amount of times you can use the points also decreases (obviously).

Can’t see price holding as it has been as we near 15-10 years left on contract, even factoring inflation.

I paid 121 a point for a total of over 24k- this would make no sense with limited years left.

Not complaining- just an observation.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Yup but Boardwalk in September is worth every penny. I paid 150 a point for mine and plan to keep it until the very end with a smile . Congrats and welcome home!!!

 

[DanCali]

Recently purchased 200 resale at BW which I intend to use through 2042. Observation I have is that it seems eventually the price has to crash- right now there are 19 years left, but as that number decreases the amount of times you can use the points also decreases (obviously).

Can’t see price holding as it has been as we near 15-10 years left on contract, even factoring inflation.

I paid 121 a point for a total of over 24k- this would make no sense with limited years left.

Not complaining- just an observation.

Congrats on your purchase!

In my view, the resale prices for BWV, BCV and BRV are way overinflated for such a limited time. That said, resale prices are what people are willing to pay... We recently purchased a small 50-pt BRV contract and accepted the price for what it is because if we wouldn't have paid it, I know someone else would have paid it that same day. So I limited our "2042 exposure" to just that tiny contract - enough so I wouldn't care that much when the prices do crash, because they inevitably will.

But if I had bought at any of those resorts 20+ years ago, I'd exit now and laugh all the way to the bank, or flip into my favorite 2060s resort and try to repeat the feat.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

All I'll say is you are likely to have many, many, many priceless memories over the next 18 years or so, staying at a resort you want to stay at. It's still a lot of nights at the resort - not fifty years, but not like it's gone next year. If you can, enjoy the benefits, and worry less about where you might be in 2042!

 

[intamin]

18 years of vacation is still a longgg time. Like I've said multiple times on here if you really care that much about Boardwalk/Beach Club it's still a no brainer. There's no other way you're going to reliably get into these resorts for as cheap as you are through DVC. When you get near the end of the contract you probably won't be able to sell the contract itself for that much but it's not like you can't rent out the points and get as much value out of it as you can before it expires.

Is it the most economic DVC purchase? Clearly not. Do people who love the resort care? Clearly not.

 

[RichVIII]

Staying where you want, being able to walk to two parks and not stressing about “hoping” to get a room at 7 months at the Boardwalk is priceless (or well 24k). Enjoy it!

 

[Sandisw]

Yup, it will go down, but the value is in its use and the little over 18 years you have left make is a great choice for you!

 

[Counting Stars]

This... "the value is in its use". No guarantee that we can continue to have our cake and eat it too

 

[paults]

Congrats on your purchase, we have been BWV owners since 2002 and love it.

 

[aceshigh73]

If you can get the contract for a decent price, its almost a no-brainer for a rental. If you can get it for under $15 for contract price + Total points+ dues (today value), its not like u will lose $$. rental store will give you $15-18 any given day for those points. Davids will give you $18. Im eyeing one now, but still paying off VGF purcahse from the summer

 

[DanCali]

If you can get the contract for a decent price, its almost a no-brainer for a rental. If you can get it for under $15 for contract price + Total points+ dues (today value), its not like u will lose $$. rental store will give you $15-18 any given day for those points. Davids will give you $18. Im eyeing one now, but still paying off VGF purcahse from the summer

If the argument is that it's profitable as a rental then isn't almost any other resort even more profitable as a rental (e.g., you can buy PVB or BLT for $11-$12/pt/yr using that math and get the about same rental value out of it)?

Consider that you pay $120/point (what the OP paid) and rent for $10/pt above the annual dues every year. After 18 years, you have a "profit" of $180 (ignoring time value of money and taxes) but you also lost your initial $120 investment (100% loss of "principal") because the deed is worthless at that time. So you put in $120/pt, and you walk away with $180/pt after 18 years. That's just a 50% gain over 18 years, or 2.28% per year annualized (and that's without taxes on the rental profits). So that's not such a great return even if you just rent it out annually...

That math will look a better if that $120/pt is used on a 2060s resort and you have 40+ years to generate that rental income.

People can justify current resale prices with rack rates, "priceless memories", "value is in its use", "keep till the end", "not having to hope getting a room at 7 months is priceless", "I only did it with 50 points" (my own excuse for BRV...) and that's all fine - behavioral economics is an entire specialty field. But it's much harder to justify as a solid financial investment generating rental income at these prevailing resale prices when you know it's worthless in 18 years.

 

[aceshigh73]

If the argument is that it's profitable as a rental then isn't almost any other resort even more profitable as a rental (e.g., you can buy PVB or BLT for $11-$12/pt/yr using that math and get the about same rental value out of it)?

Consider that you pay $120/point (what the OP paid) and rent for $10/pt above the annual dues every year. After 18 years, you have a "profit" of $180 (ignoring time value of money and taxes) but you also lost your initial $120 investment (100% loss of "principal") because the deed is worthless at that time. So you put in $120/pt, and you walk away with $180/pt after 18 years. That's just a 50% gain over 18 years, or 2.28% per year annualized (and that's without taxes on the rental profits). So that's not such a great return even if you just rent it out annually...

That math will look a better if that $120/pt is used on a 2060s resort and you have 40+ years to generate that rental income.

People can justify current resale prices with rack rates, "priceless memories", "value is in its use", "keep till the end", "not having to hope getting a room at 7 months is priceless", "I only did it with 50 points" (my own excuse...) and that's all fine - behavioral economics is an entire specialty field. But it's much harder to justify as a solid financial investment generating rental income at these prices when you know it's worthless in 18 years.

Yup. I agree with you on all pts. Including the "justifications". I was merely saying, if you really want to own/stay at BWV, or want to add-on but not use all the pts every year, you can rent it and not really "lose" money.

 

[Jlo85]

I think the ‘crash’ talk is too doomsday. The old resorts are a better points value than the new ones. Boardwalk and Riviera have similar rack rates, but Boardwalk’s points chart is SO much better, so it evens out.

 

[Cfabar1]

The points chart at BW is nice. I can't justify buying BW for the price right now for a few reasons:

1. Price per point is too high compared to newer resorts when amortized over the life of the contract
2. I am somewhat flexible and have been able to book 1 BR and Studio accommodations at 7 months when I need to.

 

[intamin]

The points chart at BW is nice. I can't justify buying BW for the price right now for a few reasons:

1. Price per point is too high compared to newer resorts when amortized over the life of the contract
2. I am somewhat flexible and have been able to book 1 BR and Studio accommodations at 7 months when I need to.

This is me, I'm fine with using my points in a BW 1BR P/G view if necessary if it means I can keep my points for an additional 20 years. Love both BCV and BWV but probably won't own there until 2042.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I am very actively only looking at BW and BC and making offers that are on the fringe of the lowest paid on the ROFR list the last half year or so. With Stormalong bay closing for a period of time in a little over a year plus dues...well...due soon and factoring in macro and micro economic and geopolitical factors...(takes a breath) I'm thinking this is the time to strike while the iron is hot. Yes they are holding up pretty well but I've seen contracts come through at low prices that obviously get gobbled up pretty fast. I've talked with a few brokers that have mentioned supply is coming in faster recently and I am noticing it on the aggregator sites. That being said I'm fine with the points I have now and as much as I would LIKE BW or BC I don't NEED it and that's why I'm taking the approach I am.

That said BW and BC are such amazing resorts. If I wanted it badly enough I wouldn't care about 10-20 dollars pp to get the contract I wanted. I think when it comes to DVC you just get what you want and as long as you're not getting ripped off at current day market values then just buy and enjoy! It's such a great area to stay in and the feels and vibe are always so good. And 18 years doesn't make it a great value but it's not like anyone is losing out paying in now as long as you're basically making 18 years of reservations. If BW or BC comes through I know that would be a hold till the end because at some point in the next 8-10 years the resale price will be lucky to look like current VB prices. But at that point like others have said why would anyone really sell. Will be so much fewer selling that it should keep resale prices stable...very low but stable until at some point no one is really selling or buying because it doesn't make sense for either party.

 

[AdamsMum]

Can’t see price holding as it has been as we near 15-10 years left on contract, even factoring inflation.

Yeah, people have been predicting that will happen in the next 5 years, ever since I bought my first Boardwalk contract in 2007...$87 per point, by the way. The direct price was $98 pp. As long as direct keeps up their style of increasing sold out resorts to what they think is a deterrent price, people will still be in the market for BWV. If you want to stay there during a festival, especially in a studio, you need to own there. Of course it makes no financial sense, but for me staying at Boardwalk or Beach Club my other home resort, is about so much more than that. I've never regretted my purchase, even for a minute. I'm even contemplating a small add on direct, April UY is like having an albatross around your neck.

That said, I'll be 84 years old in January 2042, I'm just hoping I outlive my contracts. But if I don't, my DS has told me he'll be happy to fulfill my obligation.

 

[thelionqueen]

Recently purchased 200 resale at BW which I intend to use through 2042. Observation I have is that it seems eventually the price has to crash- right now there are 19 years left, but as that number decreases the amount of times you can use the points also decreases (obviously).

Can’t see price holding as it has been as we near 15-10 years left on contract, even factoring inflation.

I paid 121 a point for a total of over 24k- this would make no sense with limited years left.

Not complaining- just an observation.

Absolutely do not think price will crash!
Think about what you said, planning on holding on to it til the end, like most others. Nobody is going to sell a valuable resort for Pennie’s when it can be used Exactly as it is today, right up to the very last day of the contract! Who would sell valuable points because a contract end date weighs on the overall value? The points are at a very popular resort which will be extremely popular right through to the last day. And owners will get significant value using them until the end. And, who knows what Disney will offer to current owners? Could be nada could be a great incentive who knows. But no matter what, you just guaranteed a fabulous vacations for 19 years at one of the hardest to get resorts. Congrats!!

I’m buying more BCV when the right contract comes along because inventory is going to shrink significantly but my desire to stay there will not. If you don’t own at BWV or BCV in 10 years you’ll wish you did..that my .02

 

[DanCali]

Who would sell valuable points because a contract end date weighs on the overall value?

I can think of at least 3 groups that can be quite substantial:

1) Those who would rather get a lump sum of $120/pt, $100/pt, $80/pt, $60/pt (or whatever the price might be in a given year, between now and 2042) versus holding a worthless asset in 2042.

2) Those who purchased for $70/pt-$90/pt and would prefer to say that they vacationed for 15-20 years and "still made a profit".

3) Those who've used it for many years, are now older, and realize their kids are not interested in a timeshare and its associated liabilities/stigmas.

But even if the supply at the resort is restricted for reasons you suggest, the demand side will also become more and more restricted if prices don't drop. There are quite a few people here who won't buy a resort with an 18-year life at current prices. That group would be much bigger if the resort life was 15, 12, or 8 years and prices didn't go down to reflect that. Some seller may indeed "never sell", but those who sell for the reasons I suggested, will have to compromise for lower prices as time passes.

 

[thelionqueen]

I can think of at least 3 groups that can be quite substantial:

1) Those who would rather get a lump sum of $120/pt, $100/pt, $80/pt, $60/pt (or whatever the price might be in a given year, between now and 2042) versus holding a worthless asset in 2042.

2) Those who purchased for $70/pt-$90/pt and would prefer to say that they vacationed for 15-20 years and "still made a profit".

3) Those who've used it for many years, are now older, and realize their kids are not interested in a timeshare and its associated liabilities/stigmas.

But even if the supply at the resort is restricted for reasons you suggest, the demand side will also become more and more restricted if prices don't drop. There are quite a few people here who won't buy a resort with an 18-year life at current prices. That group would be much bigger if the resort life was 15, 12, or 8 years and prices didn't go down to reflect that. Some seller may indeed "never sell", but those who sell for the reasons I suggested, will have to compromise for lower prices as time passes.

I understand the line of thinking here, but the 3 options you list are a specific (and I believe minority) group of owners with one thing in common…they all require the owner to settle for whatever cost because they believe it’s use and cost was low enough, or they got good use of it, and don’t think at all about it’s actual value.

For example, (and this is not comparing apples to apples obviously, just an example of similar reasoning).I bought a Chanel handbag 15 years ago that I got for $200. I used it everyday and loved it! They release a new bag that costs $1500 which is all the rage. My bag is worth over $1500 because it’s vintage and no longer available (ie sold out resorts). But I got good use of it, so getting $500 quick vs getting what it’s actually worth, is a good deal. I only paid $250, used it for 15 years & doubled my money.SCORE! Vs, I could’ve & should’ve been more prudent and got the value it’s actually worth. Or, I can keep using it for the reason I bought it and carry it until it completely falls apart. In that scenario (buying with the intent to use & not for resale value) is the best value and its resale value means nothing.

Very hard for me to accurately explain what I’m trying to convey, except that all 3 scenarios you list require the owner to basically be OK with not leveraging the actual value and its intended use. Prepaying for vacations.

I feel very confidently that most DVC owners buy DVC with the intent of using it for DVC resort vacations, not at all a financial investment. So, by that rationale, staying at the two hardest resorts to book for the next 19 years has the exact same value today as it will on the very last day of 2042. On that date I think the vast majority of owners will still own their points.

Its resale value may diminish as the end date looms, but its actual value increases significantly for owners the longer they hold it. I just don’t see many owners deciding to “jump ship” just because the contract is nearing its end. If anything, many will buy contracts at other resorts AND keep the 2042 points. Because, as we all know, the longer you hold your DVC the more valuable it becomes.

The cost of rooms from Disney will continue to increase, the value of staying at a Epcot resort will remain high and grow, and my points chart stays the same. Resale value means nothing if you bought it to vacation at your favorite resort and plan to use it as such for however long you use it. Many ways to view value imo