BLT hot season speculation

[TenThousandVolts]

OK- so we know some resorts have "hot seasons"
ie: VWL at Christmas, BWV and BCV for Food & Wine, HHI for summer...

What do you think wil be the very hottest time period(s) for BLT reservations?
4th of July? F&Wine (MNSSHP & monorail to Epcot)...

Love to hear thoughts on this...

 

[KyleRayner]

My guess would be when MNSSHP, MVMCP, and Pirate & Princess Party are happening at MK.

 

[Disney_Villain]

My guess would be when MNSSHP, MVMCP, and Pirate & Princess Party are happening at MK.

... which would cover February through May, September through December. 8 months out of 12. Pretty good for a busy season for the BLT!

Can't forget that when kids are out of school for the summer, everthing's busy. June, July. Now BLT's busy season has been extended to 10 months out of 12!

That leaves August and January as "low season" months!

 

[BostonDisneyKid]

My guess is 2009 through 2059

 

[Cruiser1969]

OK- so we know some resorts have "hot seasons"
ie: VWL at Christmas, BWV and BCV for Food & Wine, HHI for summer...

What do you think wil be the very hottest time period(s) for BLT reservations?
4th of July? F&Wine (MNSSHP & monorail to Epcot)...

Love to hear thoughts on this...

My hat's off to you for finding a clever, new BLT topic of discussion that hasn't been covered yet!!

For those of us who crave the BLT, this discussion, while we wait for some solid BLT news, is a treat!!

 

[tjkraz]

My guess would be when MNSSHP, MVMCP, and Pirate & Princess Party are happening at MK.

I dunno. Are a significant number of people really going to structure their trips around a single-night event?

Food & Wine at Epcot holds such unique appeal that it's hard to apply its popularity elsewhere. The Flower & Garden fest is also popular, yet late-April thru May remains one of the easiest periods to book.

I suspect that most of the year the resort will be completely booked within a few days of the 7-month window. History has shown us that owners don't consistently book their Home resort to capacity more than 7 months out year-round. Therefore people who are alert enough to call right at 7 months will still have a decent shot of getting a room most of the year.

Barring last-minute cancellations, the resort will certainly be full year-round and impossible to book on short notice. But I'm not sure if any real trends will emerge in terms of MK events driving demand to even greater levels.

 

[Jaaron2]

I would say summer....who dosent love a toasted BLT in July

 

[groverdog]

I would say summer....who dosent love a toasted BLT in July

I don't know - a BLT & tomato soup in January is mighty tasty

 

[spiceycat]

any time that the MK is very busy

Christmas to Ny
Easter week
Palm week
summer includes July 4
Halloween - October
yea MVMCP - Nov/Dec

some people don't drink - so they come for the Halloween & Christmas celebrations at WDW.

of course I would probably still try to stay at BWV or BCV for f&W - why - well you have to CHANGE monrails at the TTC - the way I feel sometimes would take the wrong monrail.... end up at the MK instead of CR....

last time stayed at OKW - but they know most are coming to Epcot so it has better bus service.

 

[TenThousandVolts]

My guess is 2009 through 2059

Good answer.

My hat's off to you for finding a clever, new BLT topic of discussion that hasn't been covered yet!!

Thanks very much. I have been thinking about BLT WAY too much lately- so all these gofy questions have been going through my head. It is all I want to talk talk about- but nobody in my real life gives a hoot. Thank God for you guys!

 

[mrdiscranky]

History has shown us that owners don't consistently book their Home resort to capacity more than 7 months out year-round. Therefore people who are alert enough to call right at 7 months will still have a decent shot of getting a room most of the year.

History has a habit of changing.

GCV, and to a lesser extent, CRV could change things. The gap between resale and new prices is the highest it's very been. The new resorts are going to make things worse. With Disney pushing the price to $110 (my guess for CRV) and even higher for California, and with SSR resale available for <$80, the only reason to buy CRV is to use those points during the 11-month window.

Put me down for "June - May" as the busy season.

 

[Goofy DVC]

Year after year the MK is the busiest theme park on earth.
Translation- busy season all year long.

 

[tjkraz]

History has a habit of changing.

GCV, and to a lesser extent, CRV could change things. The gap between resale and new prices is the highest it's very been. The new resorts are going to make things worse. With Disney pushing the price to $110 (my guess for CRV) and even higher for California, and with SSR resale available for <$80, the only reason to buy CRV is to use those points during the 11-month window.

To the educated consumer that may be "the only reason"...but many thousands more will buy CRV simply because it's what DVC is selling. Others will certainly buy CR because they want to stay there, but that doesn't mean they don't want to stay at AKV, BWV, OKW or any of the others.

We're talking about a timeshare program that is approaching a dozen different destinations. I doubt that a great volume of members make their purchase with the intention of using points at their Home resort every time for the next 5 decades.

The resort dues could play an interesting role purchase decisions. According to the public docs posted on-line, the projected dues for 2009 are around $3.70 per point. That would make it the cheapest resort by far--a good 35% less than the BoardWalk. The low dues are almost certainly a byproduct of the higher point charts; operating costs are spread out over a greater number of points with each point thus contributing less to the bottom line.

So the real bargain in the program could be buying CR points and using them elsewhere. Who cares if CR points are $5-6 more than AKV--you'll make up that difference in 5 years via the lower dues.

And then there's the issue of the booking windows. Regardless of what impression we may get from the sampling on the DIS, plenty of members book their trips outside of 7 months. As I said, you're not going to see the resort full of owners at 7+ months year-round.

Put me down for "June - May" as the busy season.

I guess that depends on how "busy season" is defined. As I said in my first post, it will certainly be filled year-round with members. Will it be full of CR owners year-round? Naah.

Competition will certainly be high for the rooms left at 7 months, but rooms will be available.

 

[tjkraz]

What do you think wil be the very hottest time period(s) for BLT reservations?
4th of July? F&Wine (MNSSHP & monorail to Epcot)...

I think it will be about the same as the Epcot resorts. The busiest time will be Thanksgiving to New Year's. Other popular periods will be Spring Break weeks, marathon, MLK, probably some periods in the summer like 4th of July.

October will almost certainly be highly sought after, too. I'm not convinced that MNSSHP would drive that demand, but you make a good point about monorail access to Epcot during F&W. Those two factors combined should have a meaningful impact.

I'd say those are the main periods that will be very difficult to get outside of 7 months. The rest of the year it will be easier for non-owners to book, but the available rooms will most likely be gone within a few days.

The only thing that concerns me about these predictions is the fact that we've never seen point charts. If a CR room costs 20% more points than BCV...30% more than SSR...40% more than OKW or AKV value, I think it will absolutely have an impact on bookings by non-owners. Surely there is some tipping point at which folks decide they'd rather stay an extra night or two rather than pay extra points for a CR room.

The impact won't be substantial enough to put the resort at less than 100% occupancy, but could extend the timeframe over which it reaches 100%.

 

[spiceycat]

well the BCV and VWL are 12 points now in adventure season - while BWV standard is 9 and so is AKV standard view - OKW and AKV value is 8 points.

who do most dvc members want anyway - BCV.

if those costs have not stopped DVC members from going to BCV - really doubt the points cost will at BLT.

 

[tjkraz]

well the BCV and VWL are 12 points now in adventure season - while BWV standard is 9 and so is AKV standard view - OKW and AKV value is 8 points.

who do most dvc members want anyway - BCV.

Just because BCV is consistently full doesn't mean that it has the highest demand of all the categories listed. I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that BWV Standard, AKV Standard and AKV Value are consistently at 100% occupancy...just like BCV.

It's a difficult topic to discuss since there are many variables and no hard data to work from. But I would propose that if DVC had an equal number of rooms in each of the categories you listed (BCV, BWV Standard, etc.), the Beach Club rooms probably would NOT be the first to fill.

Given the choice, I would personally take BWV Standard over BCV 99% of the time.

if those costs have not stopped DVC members from going to BCV - really doubt the points cost will at BLT.

Do you REALLY think that a significant number of members who are willing to pay 8 points per night for an AKV Value Studio would gladly upgrade to a Contemporary Studio for 13-14 points per night? I don't.

 

[alldiz]

Good answer.


Thanks very much. I have been thinking about BLT WAY too much lately- so all these gofy questions have been going through my head. It is all I want to talk talk about- but nobody in my real life gives a hoot. Thank God for you guys!

Soooo true
I think the "hot" spot might be in the summer. Kids are out of school and it's nice to not wait outside for a bus in the heat.
Although that pool dosen't have a bit of shade.

For me though....next time I go in the height of the heat....I want to stay at the BLT.
Kerri

 

[n2mm]

My guess is 2009 through 2059

That would be my guess too!

 

[spiceycat]

Although that pool dosen't have a bit of shade.

Kerri

well one will - it is surrounded by the building - like at Pop.

so it will definitely have shade most of the day cast by the building.

the one outside - first not certain it is a pool - but hey whatever could it be....

 

[WaltEeyoreWorld]

Do you think they will have to call it something else now that all of the tomatos are bring recalled?