Bird Flu Warning

[paigevz]

Microbio.............many of us don't have your sort of training and knowledge. That link was very helpful...............I have been aware of what has been reported, but that does not necessarily help me to understand what WILL be happening. After some of the other "scares" that never came to be, it is easy to have trouble believing something so big and horrible can happen to us. It is human nature, really, or we would all stop and stand perfectly still, if we were to worry about all that can happen to us. I agree it's good to be prepared and to know, which is what we are trying to do.

 

[Microbio]

Thanks for the response. I wasn't in denial of anything.

The DISboards is the first place i heard about this. Simply asked a question regarding importance. No need to be rude in your response.

sorry if you found it rude, it was not meant to be or even directed at you, I guess I deal with this everyday and I find it so hard to believe people are unaware of it. no biggie

 

[kendall]

Given that this flu has so far spread as predicted, we are slowly stocking up in our house. We anticipate this flu will eventually transmit human-human, so better to be prepared. We can always use the canned goods and water, anyway, so it really isn't an inconvenience. I agree with some of the other posters, it is a matter of "when," not "if." Panic? No. Preparing? Yes.

 

[Snowysmom]

I think people just need to use common sense. I plan to stock up little by little to be prepared for any emergency situation. I too wish the movie was not going to be on TV tomorrow night. It will probably send people into a frenzy and right into the grocery stores to buy out canned goods and water. It will be like it is here in the Northeast the day before a blizzard. Since I do grocery shopping on Wednesday I'll keep an eye out for the hoardes who watched the movie and now want to stock up a years worth of food.

 

[DISUNC]

We are beginning to see the first written warnings regarding Bird Flu up here. They are suggesting a 72-hour supply of food and water, medicine and batteries. What is your area suggesting (if anything)?

I understand having food & medicine in the house. Even though I dont understand what medicine I would need if the Bird Flu comes in the future.

I dont understand why the water & batteries????
If the BF comes, how will that effect electricity & water??????????
It better NOT screw up my Cable!

Why dont we just throw in DUCT tape, like they told us to in the event of a terrorist act. All VERY SILLY things!

 

[Microbio]

I understand having food & medicine in the house. Even though I dont understand what medicine I would need if the Bird Flu comes in the future.

I dont understand why the water & batteries????
If the BF comes, how will that effect electricity & water??????????
It better NOT screw up my Cable!

Why dont we just throw in DUCT tape, like they told us to in the event of a terrorist act. All VERY SILLY things!

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I think they are suggesting that with quarantine and pandemic proportions of the outbreak--there would be disruption of services due to lack of manpower (i.e. you may have power today--but as more and more people are out sick or quarantined---if something breaks, it will take longer to fix--and then the problem just gets bigger and bigger).

But since I was told not to deny the problem--I guess we were all told this without an explanation--so I took my best stab at it for you.

 

[disney1990]

I think that it is irresponsible for ABC to be running a movie that will panic people.

Yes, a pandemic is a a matter of "when" not "if". But, we are taking about the "when" of a pandemic. The avian or bird flu may NOT be the pandemic that will come one day (remember SARS). The pandemic may come from something else on the horizon that we don't even have a name for right now. Nobody knows for sure -- even the so called experts can't agree.

That said, everybody, everywhere should be prepared for an emergency situation at all times. I know in my area, we had the aftermath of a hurricane a few years ago and many communities were without power for over 2 weeks. My Mom and my daughter both lost all the food in their refrigerators and freezers. For Christmas that years, everybody received emergency (windup) radios.

That said, buy the stuff that you may need for an emergency, whatever that emergency may be, but don't panic. This article quotes the National Institutes of Health's infectious disease chief.

U.S. expert: Bird flu no imminent threat
Surveillance will prevent spread like in other countries
Friday, April 14, 2006; Posted: 1:06 p.m. EDT (17:06 GMT)

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Even if bird flu does arrive on U.S. shores on the wings of a migratory bird, the virus is unlikely to make the inroads in poultry -- or in people -- that it has in less developed countries, the nation's top avian influenza expert says.

"The surveillance is going to be so intense that it is very unlikely that there is going to be the type of situation we see everywhere from Nigeria to Indonesia," Dr. Anthony Fauci, the National Institutes of Health's infectious disease chief, said in an interview with The Associated Press.

Bird flu has killed 109 people in nine countries, mostly in Asia, according to the World Health Organization. It's also killed or forced the slaughter of more than 200 million chickens, ducks, turkeys and other domestic fowl in Asia, Europe and Africa. Though experts believe migrating birds could spread the virus to the United States this year, Fauci has his doubts.

"One migratory bird does not a pandemic make," Fauci said, adding that U.S. poultry farmers -- like their colleagues in Europe -- keep their birds isolated from contact with wild birds. Most people in the United States, in turn, have limited contact with poultry or their droppings that, if the fowl were infected, would contain high levels of virus.

In Europe, despite an initial "spike of anxiety," farmers know now bird flu is something to keep an eye on, he said. The same should be the case here.

"It won't be what you see in countries in which there is no regulation, in which there is no incentive to compensate farmers, in which the people, who are so poor, when they see their chickens are getting infected they immediately sell them or they don't tell anybody because they don't want them culled," Fauci said in Tuesday's interview. "That is a critical issue that is fundamentally different than what we see in Western Europe and that we will see in the United States."

Nor is the bird flu virus likely to change overnight so that it spreads from person to person, Fauci said.

To do that, the virus first must undergo a series of genetic changes -- changes that ultimately could make bird flu even less virulent. Generally, the more easily a virus can be spread, the less virulent it is, he said.

Scientists might see the signs of change while studying the virus itself, but an early warning would be if doctors or nurses caring for someone who caught the H5N1 strain from a bird in turn got sick, something that hasn't happened anywhere yet, Fauci said.

"It is entirely conceivable that this virus is inherently programmed that it will never be able to go efficiently from human to human," Fauci said. "Hopefully the epidemic (in birds) will burn itself out, which epidemics do, before the virus evolves the capability of being more efficient in going from human to human."

The government still must prepare for the worst -- "it would be unconscionable not to" -- as officials gear up should bird flu spark a human pandemic, he added.

To prepare, Fauci recommended families stock up on supplies, including canned food and water, as they would anyway for a hurricane or winter storm. People who require regular medication for diabetes or other chronic illnesses should have an extra week or two supply, like they would for a vacation.

The public, however, should worry only if bird flu begins showing signs of evolving into more of a human threat. In that case, airline passengers arriving from an afflicted area would pose a greater threat than any chicken, Fauci said.

Were a full-blown pandemic to emerge, scientists are debating whether to vaccinate first those most likely to spread the virus, rather than those traditionally first in line for winter flu shots, including the very old, very young and chronically ill.

"At the end of the day, you have a broader, more favorable, beneficial effect on society by preventing the spread by vaccinating the spreaders -- not the grandpa who sits at home watching TV and doesn't go out and spread it to anybody but is concerned about it coming into the house," Fauci said. "There has not been a policy change in that, but it is under very active discussion."

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Hmm--for someone who deals with it daily and could offer a huge service in respectfully answering a question--you seem to be rather caught up with doing just the opposite (which by the way--doesn't help with preparedness).


And when you quote people and respond--you do direct it at them.

So thanks for your expertise and accompanying lack of desire to help anyone understand the seriousness of the situation.

 

[DISUNC]

I think they are suggesting that with quarantine and pandemic proportions of the outbreak--there would be disruption of services due to lack of manpower (i.e. you may have power today--but as more and more people are out sick or quarantined---if something breaks, it will take longer to fix--and then the problem just gets bigger and bigger).

But since I was told not to deny the problem--I guess we were all told this without an explanation--so I took my best stab at it for you.

In the case of Electricity & water....barring no knocked down poles or broken water mains.....All this stuff runs by computers! No manpower needed. And really if it gets THAT bad where no one is able to perform any services...Well you will proably only live 72 hours longer than everyone else!!!!

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

In the case of Electricity & water....barring no knocked down poles or broken water mains.....All this stuff runs by computers! No manpower needed. And really if it gets THAT bad where no one is able to perform any services...Well you will proably only live 72 hours longer than everyone else!!!!

But that is the thing--repairs are constantly made on a daily basis when stuff is running properly and manpower is adequate. There are leaks in pipes, transformers blow, cars run into power poles.

It is not to say that you won't survive--it just has you prepared while you wait for services to be restored should they go out and cannot be repaired in the ordinary expected timeframe. Like hurricanes, except one is large scale--in the case of the bird flu..my guess is--like rush hour----once you have less people available to do repairs...then you create a traffic jam and then a prioritization queue of when services can be restored.

If all it took was a computer--then the only employee of the power or water company woudl be a computer programmer.

**DISCLAIMER--I understand no more than you do--but figured I would at least try to guess at an answer. At least I tried to offer an explanation.

 

[N.Bailey]

if it does ever hit, it will shut production as we know it down. stores will not be stocked like they are now. not to mention having to go out in public if it did get to that point.

I really do not comprehend why this is such an issue, there are hurricanes, tornados, blizzards etc, what is the big deal just "being prepared" for yourselves and your families.

Knowledge about what is going on around you is a GOOD thing, denial is not.

IMO, it does no harm in being somewhat prepared by buying what you'd use one way or the other. In all reality however, if it gets as bad as some suggest, we're all doomed anyway because you simply can't be totally prepared for upwards to a year.

For my family, we'd need almost 800 gallons of water to get thru 6 months. How can you store that?

 

[mytwotinks]

Flashlights, portable radios? Just a guess though.

I guess that I am confused! How is the flu going to effect my electricity?

 

[golfgal]

Everyone should be prepared for any weather/geological events in their area but preparing for the bird flu now is premature. It will start in Asia and slowly move around the world, when or if it ever happens. You will have several months notice to get prepared. It isn't going to happen over night. There have been NO cases of human to human transfer and there aren't even any cases of the bird flu in birds in the US.

As for it effecting your electricity or any public service, if 1000's of people get sick like they are saying is possible, people won't be at work to perform functions like running electrical plants, hospitals, McDonalds, grocery stores, etc. Look what happens to some schools/places of business in the winter when the regular influenza hits. If everyone is sick or exposed to the flu, no one will be around to run things therefore you should be prepared to not have electricity or phone service for several weeks. If you are hit by a hurricane or earthquake, services could be cut off as well so being prepared for those makes more sense at this time.

 

[N.Bailey]

I guess that I am confused! How is the flu going to effect my electricity?

Again, just guessing, but I think the consensus is that everyone will stay home, which would probably cut off all our public utilities if that were to happen.

In addition to Steve's post earlier, I want to add that I'd read a site the other day that stated the end of the migratory phase for birds traveling from Asia and Africa north will end at the very end of May. I guess to date however, no infected birds have been found thus far to show that it will be spread via the migratory birds. That's unless it's been documented in the past couple of days? We'll be much more certain in the coming weeks though and so far, it's looking really good.

 

[golfgal]

I should add as well that because of the suspected nature of this virus, healthy adults are at the greatest risk according to epidemiologist (Osterholm from the University of MN--I think that is his name--he is considered the national expert on epidemics such as this). I guess this virus sends your immune system into overdrive so those with a healthy immune system will be at greatest risk. Those with a compromised immune system will actually fight it off better because it will boost their immune system.

 

[Jpgirl]

We're aleady preparing for the upcoming hurricane season so I'm not doing anything more or less for this flu. Just a note and not one to cause a panic. Last year we got back to Houston just in time for Hurricane Rita-I was already prepared so we just sat back and watched everyone else panic-so here's my word to the wise. If this worries you then stock up early rather than later. 3-4 days BEFORE Rita hit my dd (who was home while we were at WDW ) kept calling to inform us of the happenings. Water and canned food ran out of the stores very quickly (again we're talking 3-4 days before). She couldn't get gas b/c every time she did they were out. The kept having delivieries but they'd be out be the time she got there the pumps were empty. The best was the day before. We went to the grocery store just for kicks as our neighborhood was a ghost town. People in a panic-some of the grocery store employees in a panic. They did have a nice sale on perishables but what was the sense of buying them when we all faced not having electricity. The point is just prepare as if you may have to be home bound for a week to ten days. The 3 day water thing doesn't cut it for me-I try to have 7-10 days. As far as meds go I have about a week's worth of everyone's prescription medicine stockpiled beyond what we already have in the house. I think there's a goverment website that has a list of emergency supplies- and lists extras depending on what you're facing-ie hurricanes or blizzards. I too am getting tired of all the media hype. I learned the media sells sensationalism. During the hurricane-they just filmed the really bad stuff-the traffic jam and the crowds at the airport (it really was bad-I was totally amazed at all the people trying to leave as we were getting back into town) And showing all that frenzy just made it worse and even more people who didn't have to..evacuated. The important thing in a crisis is to keep your head-don't just blindly panic.

 

[Planogirl]

I haven't seen any indication that the bird flu will be a problem YET. If I do, I'll react accordingly.

Another thing, I can't see why the movie should throw anyone into a panic. It's clearly fantasy just like any disaster movie.

 

[paigevz]

I should add as well that because of the suspected nature of this virus, healthy adults are at the greatest risk according to epidemiologist (Osterholm from the University of MN--I think that is his name--he is considered the national expert on epidemics such as this). I guess this virus sends your immune system into overdrive so those with a healthy immune system will be at greatest risk. Those with a compromised immune system will actually fight it off better because it will boost their immune system.

Wow, I sure did not know that! We figured IF a pandemic occurred, my husband had better lay off his Imuran. Maybe the whole family should take it instead! NOBODY freak out! We wouldn't really take his meds!

 

[Michie]

I should add as well that because of the suspected nature of this virus, healthy adults are at the greatest risk according to epidemiologist (Osterholm from the University of MN--I think that is his name--he is considered the national expert on epidemics such as this). I guess this virus sends your immune system into overdrive so those with a healthy immune system will be at greatest risk. Those with a compromised immune system will actually fight it off better because it will boost their immune system.