I can't speak for other offsite visitors but the way things look Disney stands to make NO profit where this family is concerned unless we stay onsite. I have no intention of staying onsite any more than we already do and also no intention of being excluded or paying higher fees for 1 headliner FP+. That whole idea seems bizarre.
I know, I know... A zillion other people will be lined up to take our places.
I don't think that Disney can afford to dismiss repeat guests who usually stay onsite. I realize that we are not the target market in that for the most part, we have tempered our budget, but honestly there still is money to be made from us. For instance, I know my family does not spend all day every day in the parks, but we never did. We took our DGD there with the intention of returning at least once a year, and many times we returned twice. Our budget fluctuated based on the kind of vacation we wanted. AS the years passed, we started to spend additional money on "extras" because we had already enjoyed the attractions and knew that we did not have to "get it all in" now. Our souvenir budget turned to tours, etc. If our experience had been stressful or if we felt that we were not able to tour the way we wanted to tour, we would not have returned.
I hesitate to pass judgement on this whole new program that Disney is implementing because is not fully in place, but I would guess that for first time guests, if their experience leaves them feeling buyers remorse, there will be fewer return people. In fact, Disney may not target us, becasue we are already hooked, but they do need us.
Onsite or off, guests need to feel valued or they can spend elsewhere. Repeat guests are not just those who flock to the monorail resorts, or purchase DVC, and if those folks are disenfranchised, they will no longer be those tried and true repeat guests who supplement Disney coffers. While I believe that a perk can be offered to entice people to spend a larger amount of vacation money within Disney, I also believe that if Disney develops a "class" structure to the point where offsite guests are penalized, rather than onsite guests rewarded. the program will backfire.
Anyway, I honestly hope it does not come to that.