Better to buy GFV now at $155??? Or wait a year?

[hcortesis]

Want to add on to our GFV points. We are all booked for the winter of 2015 so we don't need the points now.

Should we purchase now at $155, have to pay dues in January but not use our points until winter of 2016?

Or wait until roughly May/2015 to buy, pay $165 or more, but skip the 2015 dues?

 

[CarolMN]

Seems like a math problem, lol. How many points are you planning to add?

As an example, if it were 100, by waiting, you'd pay 100 * $10 (increase in price) or $1000 more by waiting.

Dues on those points would be 100 * $5.41 or $541.

If you bought now and didn't plan to use the points, you could rent them. If you worked with David's, you could theoretically get 100 * $11 or $1100 for them. Depending on your use year, you might even get current use year points and thus could get $2200 for renting).

So your "savings" by buying now would be $1100 (David's) + $1000 (no price increase) - $541 (2015 dues) = $1559

If you wait, your "saving"s are $541 (no dues) - $1000 (you pay future price increase) = -$459

Obviously, I ignored the total cost of the extra points, inflation / time value of money (it's just a year) and the expected increase on the 2015 dues. I assumed you were going to buy and that the ignored factors would be the same for for choices.

 

[Countryrunner262]

Resale could also be an option. Contracts at VGF are going at 135pp. We were fortunate enough to be able to stay there in April...beautiful!

 

[nalajms]

Resale could also be an option. Contracts at VGF are going at 135pp.

That's our plan... wait till next year and see where resale stands. Resale could also drop more once Poly starts selling. If you think you'll need points in May, I'd start looking at the end of the year.

Another option is to hedge the price ... if you need 100 pts, buy 50 now and wait to see what resale will do in the next year. With 50pts banked into next year, it would cover you for another year.

 

[automaticsoap]

Another potential downside of waiting and going the resale route in a year or so is that the contracts will most likely be stripped -- so it all depends on when you need the points.

 

[tjkraz]

Another potential downside of waiting and going the resale route in a year or so is that the contracts will most likely be stripped -- so it all depends on when you need the points.

Agree. Waiting on resale strikes me as a high risk, low reward situation.

VGF contracts are unlikely to be plentiful. You'll probably be forced to make compromises with regard to the Use Year and number of points in the contract in order to find a match.

The lowest-priced contracts are always stripped. A contract purchased in 2015 which is priced in the low $130s will most likely not have '15 points and may not have '16 points either.

Poly may depress VGF demand a bit but I doubt it will be dramatic. Overall retail prices are on the rise and so are resale rates. A year from now VGF will be "sold-out" (direct), meaning that all interested buyers will be turning to resale.

I just don't see a scenario in the nest 12-18 months where VGF resale drops below $130s while direct prices are rising above $170.

 

[hcortesis]

Yes, I like the advice to buy now and rent the points. I seem to come out a little ahead. Thank you.

Do GFV points rent at a premium to the other resorts?

 

[MarlaSingersLaundry]

Yes, I like the advice to buy now and rent the points. I seem to come out a little ahead. Thank you. Do GFV points rent at a premium to the other resorts?

I think David's was renting VGF points at a premium. i'm uncertain what private sellers do. Check out the rental board for current rental rates.